SingPost    Last:0.315   -

SingPost

Aiyah, 0.005 div, how much to drop after the Ex date?

chengwh1      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 19:57) Posted: Hence,... closed today at 1.375. I suspect the final plunge will be after Xdate.

 

Hence,... closed today at 1.375. I suspect the final plunge will be after Xdate.

 

Using $500 million for goodwill without holding egm, that is what made the shareholders so angry.

destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 18:18) Posted: I wish it was that simple. Just like how SingTel  pays for lousy Huawei and Aztech  products at an obscene price despite knowing these items having low specs and high failure rate. Just like how standard chartered is losing $ and customers because of incompetent management and IT, and still, they keep hiring more people from the same nationality. Poor judgement or possible bribery? you decide.   investshare      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:27) Posted: True. This is the problem with some cash rich company. Just invest in field that they are not familiar

 

I wish it was that simple. Just like how SingTel  pays for lousy Huawei and Aztech  products at an obscene price despite knowing these items having low specs and high failure rate.

Just like how standard chartered is losing $ and customers because of incompetent management and IT, and still, they keep hiring more people from the same nationality.
Poor judgement or possible bribery? you decide.
 

investshare      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:27) Posted: True. This is the problem with some cash rich company. Just invest in field that they are not familiar. destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:17) Posted: Will you choose to excise tumor, or leave it be? Better to enter after they write off or wait until impairment priced in.

 

We are not able to predict accurately with perfection the future of a business and the movement of its share price. In investing, we are working on the principle of probability and   every outcome is on hindsight.

Fundamental analysis seeks to forecast the future performance of a business based on its historical and current performance by looking at its various financial metrics to decide is this company worthwhile to buy its shares now at current price? Valuation models like discounted free cash flows model, dividend discount model and even asset base pricing model have an element of forward looking prediction that the share price of a business should (and I emphasise this word " should" which is not " definitely will" ) eventually reflect its intrinsic worth assuming the business can continue to grow and perform up to the prediction on its intrinsic value based on the valuation model. Technical analysis seeks to forecast the future of the movement of share prices based on historical and current share price movements. And there are various technical analysis indicators a trader looks at to forecast share price movements. 

However, in each of the above whichever methods and models, it is trying to apply science into investing but the final investment outcome may not necessarily follow the prediction using any methods or models. This is because the business world and behavioural finance of market participants are forever unpredictable.

What a fundamental investor or technical trader hopes to do is to apply math and science into his analysis so as to make the best optimal decision he could to increase his probability of making a return and decrease his probability of suffering a loss on his investment decision. But, the hard reality is such that the investor or trader despite applying maths and science in making any investment decision still will not be able to control the future outcome of his investment decision. He can only seek to increase the chance of odds that he may win and not lose but he cannot guarantee 100% the final outcome. In conclusion, only God knows the future.      

chengwh1      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 12:06) Posted: Kept since 2009, something like that... If sold during the height of 1.9650, would have made lots more,... but then that 1.9650 was like two years ago,... if not mistaken,..hence, if sold back then, may have made more but  would have lost  the big dividend given out  two years ago and last year,... So,... even out lar,... Of course, if we have known that two years later, the dpu would drop like this, then would have disposed back then and bought into the other ctr. Was thinking to keep forever for retirement,... and even continue to buy more, averaging-up is also fine for me since the ctr is ' good' . Today,.. all plans CHANGED ! maccer      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 11:57) Posted: at least you still made.

 

Dun worry. You can buy back later when things are crystal clear and at a good price.

chengwh1      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 12:06) Posted: Kept since 2009, something like that... If sold during the height of 1.9650, would have made lots more,... but then that 1.9650 was like two years ago,... if not mistaken,..hence, if sold back then, may have made more but  would have lost  the big dividend given out  two years ago and last year,... So,... even out lar,... Of course, if we have known that two years later, the dpu would drop like this, then would have disposed back then and bought into the other ctr. Was thinking to keep forever for retirement,... and even continue to buy more, averaging-up is also fine for me since the ctr is ' good' . Today,.. all plans CHANGED ! maccer      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 11:57) Posted: at least you still made.

 

Kept since 2009, something like that... If sold during the height of 1.9650, would have made lots more,... but then that 1.9650 was like two years ago,... if not mistaken,..hence, if sold back then, may have made more but  would have lost  the big dividend given out  two years ago and last year,... So,... even out lar,...

Of course, if we have known that two years later, the dpu would drop like this, then would have disposed back then and bought into the other ctr.

Was thinking to keep forever for retirement,... and even continue to buy more, averaging-up is also fine for me since the ctr is ' good' . Today,.. all plans CHANGED !

maccer      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 11:57) Posted: at least you still made.

 

at least you still made.

 

I' m out totally !

Emotionally sad to leave this ctr, having held it for so long, so much dividend reaped,....  Average Price  was $1.15.

 

True.

This is the problem with some cash rich company. Just invest in field that they are not familiar.

destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:17) Posted: Will you choose to excise tumor, or leave it be? Better to enter after they write off or wait until impairment priced in.  investshare      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:10) Posted: How many letters to deliver to earn $100+million, just write off like that

 

this is a @#$$%#@# counter> changed top guns after getting fat salary and left tons of shit behind. Lost 10% in value and better run now then seeing it erode in value on my investment. Put money someway may have better chance to earn back then stick to it.

 

 

Will you choose to excise tumor, or leave it be?
Better to enter after they write off or wait until impairment priced in. 

investshare      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:10) Posted: How many letters to deliver to earn $100+million, just write off like that. destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:02) Posted: Of course, Very likely to write off $100 million++ of investment. Dividend drop like !@#$%, net profit dropped too. No value in getting it @ this price   , might as well buy government bonds. High risk, low returns. It should be hovering around $1.3 soon.

 

Agreed, full year dividend should be 3.5-4 cents, which gives a yield of 2.5-2.8% at the current price of $1.40.

Hardly qualifies as a dividend stock anymore as the yield is only slightly higher than Singapore Savings Bonds.

Back then it was paying 6.25 cents for many years, today fundamentals have worsened.

destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:02) Posted: Of course, Very likely to write off $100 million++ of investment. Dividend drop like !@#$%, net profit dropped too. No value in getting it @ this price   , might as well buy government bonds. High risk, low returns. It should be hovering around $1.3 soon. pinkowl      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 09:37) Posted: Downgraded by most analysts - from 1.76 to 1.42.  I' d cut loss, and switched to short yesterday.

 

This write-down brought out another fear or validate that perhaps the deals were not done with due diligence.

And what about the other deals? It' s written in outlook statement that they will look into other deals as well, to see if there' s a need to rebalance the value.  

destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:09) Posted: I will only load after they price in the impairment. It' s very likely based on previous egm and how it' s bought based on goodwill and during a period when there is serious goverance issue.

 

How many letters to deliver to earn $100+million, just write off like that.

destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:02) Posted: Of course, Very likely to write off $100 million++ of investment. Dividend drop like !@#$%, net profit dropped too. No value in getting it @ this price   , might as well buy government bonds. High risk, low returns. It should be hovering around $1.3 soon. pinkowl      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 09:37) Posted: Downgraded by most analysts - from 1.76 to 1.42.  I' d cut loss, and switched to short yesterday.

 

I will only load after they price in the impairment.

It' s very likely based on previous egm and how it' s bought based on goodwill and during a period when there is serious goverance issue.

 

sold mine and cut further loss from down trend. this counter not going to see any light soon. 

 

 

Uncertainty is bad for market. When market dunno how much she will be impaired till end of FY (3 months later), they will not dare to go in. 

Drop in dividend is also bad for those into income-investing. 

In the longer longer term, I think Singpost has potential. I' d loaded too soon. I will load again when I notice improving results. No more betting for me. Ha Ha. Got to be disciplined - lesson learnt.

destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 10:02) Posted: Of course, Very likely to write off $100 million++ of investment. Dividend drop like !@#$%, net profit dropped too. No value in getting it @ this price   , might as well buy government bonds. High risk, low returns. It should be hovering around $1.3 soon. pinkowl      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 09:37) Posted: Downgraded by most analysts - from 1.76 to 1.42.  I' d cut loss, and switched to short yesterday.

 

Of course, Very likely to write off $100 million++ of investment. Dividend drop like !@#$%, net profit dropped too. No value in getting it @ this price   , might as well buy government bonds.

High risk, low returns. It should be hovering around $1.3 soon.

pinkowl      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 09:37) Posted: Downgraded by most analysts - from 1.76 to 1.42.  I' d cut loss, and switched to short yesterday. destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 09:30) Posted: $1.4 broken.

 

Downgraded by most analysts - from 1.76 to 1.42. 

I' d cut loss, and switched to short yesterday.

destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Feb-2017 09:30) Posted: $1.4 broken. destinykraze      ( Date: 13-Feb-2017 11:59) Posted: It will definitely break $1.4. The support is there for retailers to enter and act as cushion, just wait to enter for safe play. Need time for people to price in the potential impairment(Very likely, imho)