Asian Pay TV Tr   

Asian Pay Tv Tr

Low can get lower, esp when their result is gg southward. They cant sustain the dividend for.sure

churnw      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 15:01) Posted: Now even more attractive at 0.41 .... Nimble ... Some more

 

Cool - now 0.405

 

I wonder if the reason for the sell-down is expectations that they will go to the market for funds. That is RI ?

 

Jeremy , thank for the advice ... We invest based on our side ...

 

Thanks, Jeremy. Dun worry about being responsible for my action...just wanted to hear your opinion . =)

After seeing their financial statements recently, I had already decided to hold. Just preparing myself for new bad news to come, should they come.  

jeremyow      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 16:08) Posted: Hi pinkowl, I do not give any advice on whether to hold or cut loss. It really depends on you yourself. I can only offer some questions I myself in such a situation will consider.  1. Is the company' s current fundamentals really in an obvious danger zone? Red flags like profit guidance, possible concerns in refinancing? Such red flags must come in the form of announcements by the company so we are absolutely sure that the likelihood of such concerns happening is high. 2. Is there possible chance for the company' s fundamentals to improve in future? Sometimes, it is so obvious that there is no more chance for a company that has bad fundamentals to improve. Issues such as the company has already sold off certain operating assets to repay an immediate loan/ liability that is due so its future earnings will certainly get depressed for quite some time until the company can pick itself up slowly again. 3. Is there another better investment option for you to consider should you sell off partially or fully your existing stake in current company? If there is another better investment option such as another solid company with solid fundamentals which its share price is currently undervalued, then one may consider doing a switch and hope to recover the loss from one investment on another better investment option. 4. How much shares to sell if one is considering to sell? Partially or fully? If one after doing one' s due diligence to his best already has totally lost faith in a company and see no more investment worthiness in that company, perhaps it is time to just sell all the shares and suffer the loss and then put the remaining capital into other better investment options. Bear in mind it must be based on facts and evidences one has found out about the company and not just based on rumours and hear-says. That is why news and financial statements about a company must be assessed together for a better and complete picture of the situation. If the situation is not until that dire, then perhaps one can consider just reducing partially his shares instead of total sell off to reduce his risk of total loss in capital. Really dire situations include filling for bankruptcy and investigations for cases of offences and frauds. Then perhaps one will have to quickly sell off totally all his shares to recover back as much as possible whatever remaining capital in such extereme cases. If not too extreme situations, usually paring down the amount of shares is already good enough. At the end of the day, it depends on your belief whether the company' s fundamentals will maintain status quo, strengthen over time or deteroriate over time. I usually do not do anything until I see concrete trends in the news and financial results of the company. Thus, if one has monitored the progress of his invested company through time, one will already have an intimate understanding of his invested company to see any potential red flags earlier on when they start forming and especially confirming a trend which is a trend of deteroriating fundamentals. Pls note that I am not suggesting any investment actions about Asian Pay TV Trust here that you should take. So far whatever I share are things I have noticed and picked up from their financial statements. You make the call here as I also have to make a disclaimer here that my sharing is not comprehensive and complete so I will not be responsible for any actions you make concerning the buying and selling of shares of APTT. But I do wish you the best in your investments! Cheers!     pinkowl      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 15:23) Posted: Thanks, Jeremy.  Yes, they are a monopoly in the region, so income should be very stable. However, the price has plunged a lot the past few days. I wonder what bad news there are to come.  What' s your opinion - to hold or to cut loss?

 

I wonder who is selling so much...

 

I just came back from tawian , everywhere from home , hotel , business ...
There are using their service , with more than 100 channels to choose from ..
Their market is even better and bigger than us...

 

Their 9M results was not bad compared to pcp.   Earnings per share of 3.01,50% higher than 2.01 in pcp. Unseen hands playing this stock?.  

churnw      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 16:17) Posted: I feel we should hold ... Shortist might have bring the prices low and buy back .....

 

I brought 50 lots at 0.41 ... Today ...
Fixed deposit ....
Lelong lelong ...

 

I feel we should hold ...
Shortist might have bring the prices low and buy back .....

 

Asian Pay Television Trust reported earnings results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2016. For the quarter, the company reported total revenue was SGD 79,275,000 against SGD 81,565,000 a year ago. EBITDA was SGD 46,608,000 against SGD 49,019,000 a year ago. Operating profit was SGD 34,266,000 against SGD 36,615,000 a year ago. Profit before income tax was SGD 18,709,000 against SGD 22,862,000 a year ago. Profit after income tax attributable to Unitholders of APTT was SGD 10,587,000 against SGD 14,460,000 a year ago. Basic and diluted earnings per unit attributable to unitholders of APTT was 0.74 cents against 1.01 cents a year ago. Cash generated from operations was SGD 44,293,000 against SGD 38,021,000 a year ago. Acquisition of property, plant and equipment was SGD 19,728,000 against SGD 16,005,000 a year ago. Acquisition of intangible assets was SGD 114,000 against SGD 236,000 a year ago. For the nine months, the company reported total revenue was SGD 235,315,000 against SGD 246,537,000 a year ago. EBITDA was SGD 139,337,000 against SGD 148,108,000 a year ago. Capital expenditure of $20.0 million, capital expenditure was lower because of lower capital expenditure being incurred on network expansion growth into greater Taichung and premium digital cable TV growth compared to pcp. This lower expenditure offset the higher maintenance and other capital expenditure being incurred during the quarter when compared to pcp. Operating profit was SGD 107,398,000 against SGD 106,935,000 a year ago. Profit before income tax was SGD 63,625,000 against SGD 45,029,000 a year ago. Profit after income tax attributable to Unitholders of APTT was SGD 43,317,000 against SGD 28,950,000 a year ago. Basic and diluted earnings per unit attributable to unitholders of APTT was 3.01 cents against 2.01 cents a year ago. Cash generated from operations was SGD 134,961,000 against SGD 130,707,000 a year ago. Acquisition of property, plant and equipment was SGD 60,876,000 against SGD 56,297,000 a year ago. Acquisition of intangible assets was SGD 671,000 against SGD 1,716,000 a year ago. For the year 2016, the company expects Capital expenditure approximately SGD 50 to 55 million. EBITDA is expected to be marginally lower than 2015 For the year 2017, the company expects Capital expenditure approximately SGD 50 to 55 million.

jeremyow      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 14:29) Posted: Hi pinkowl, yes you are right that they are able to service their interest and other finance costs from their businesses. If you examine their 9M financial results (which I prefer to use 9M results instead of one quarter' s results to have a better grasp of a full year' s view to minimise any wide fluctuations from quarter to quarter results), they have about $107million operating profit while their interest and other finance costs is about $40 million. The operating profit already can cover the interest and finance costs, so they have no issue with paying their interest and other finance costs. And if you look at their past few years' financial results, they have no problems with paying their interest and other finance costs from their operating profit and finally still have net profit every year. Thus, they are still profitable.  On the cashflows statement side under cashflows from financing activities, their interest and finance costs have increased over last year' s same 9M period. This year' s 9M period shows cash-outflow of $40 million compared to about $28 million for last year' s 9M period. Seems more cash are used to pay (cash-outflows towards) their interest and finance costs over this year' s 9M period as compared to last year.  I will watch out for their interest and finance costs to see the yearly trend. If it continues to rise at a fast rate over consecutive years, it may mean they are either taking on more loans and interest bearing liabilities or their average cost of financing has gone up due to any revision in the interest rates and finance costs on existing loans and liabilities. If interest and finance costs shoot up too fast, it can become a potential hidden concern because if due to some downturn in the businesses, it may have problems fulfilling the payment of interest and finance costs which could bring a company down to potential insolvency (bankruptcy).  As of now Sep 2016, the gearing of Asian Pay TV Trust is around 54.1%. Last year Dec 2015 gearing was 52.7%. Clearly, there is a slight increase in the gearing over this year' s 9M period. As mentioned by nngeeh and also shown by the high gearing, there is a high amount of long term debt of about $1.2 billion vs $48 million cash and cash equivalents on hand. In this case, Asian Pay TV Trust' s gearing has exceeded that of most REITs which generally REITs try to maintain their gearing to be 45% and lesser.  So, a shareholder is really enjoying a good dividend yield of 10% and more at current share prices. But there is a catch to this in that the current enjoyment of this high dividend yield comes at a price to pay. This price is obviously not a high share price to pay (since the Trust' s share price has already been beaten down to be cheap now) but the price of taking on the risk of a high gearing with potential problems that could spring up should the Trust not be able to maintain the payment of interest and finance costs or refinancing of its long term debts when they come due or not be able to sustain the payment of their dividends at current amounts due to no improvement or even worse, deteroriation in their cashflows due to any unforeseen problems encountered in their operations.     pinkowl      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 10:42) Posted: I' m not an expert in FA. Have recently re-read their financial statement, and interpret that they are able to service their interest from the stable earnings they receive (JeremyOw, did I interpret correctly? ). So my intention is to wait till they are done with the infrastructure layout and see if their results will improve. Maybe in 2017 or 2018.

 

Hi pinkowl, I do not give any advice on whether to hold or cut loss. It really depends on you yourself. I can only offer some questions I myself in such a situation will consider. 

1. Is the company' s current fundamentals really in an obvious danger zone? Red flags like profit guidance, possible concerns in refinancing? Such red flags must come in the form of announcements by the company so we are absolutely sure that the likelihood of such concerns happening is high.

2. Is there possible chance for the company' s fundamentals to improve in future? Sometimes, it is so obvious that there is no more chance for a company that has bad fundamentals to improve. Issues such as the company has already sold off certain operating assets to repay an immediate loan/ liability that is due so its future earnings will certainly get depressed for quite some time until the company can pick itself up slowly again.

3. Is there another better investment option for you to consider should you sell off partially or fully your existing stake in current company? If there is another better investment option such as another solid company with solid fundamentals which its share price is currently undervalued, then one may consider doing a switch and hope to recover the loss from one investment on another better investment option.

4. How much shares to sell if one is considering to sell? Partially or fully? If one after doing one' s due diligence to his best already has totally lost faith in a company and see no more investment worthiness in that company, perhaps it is time to just sell all the shares and suffer the loss and then put the remaining capital into other better investment options. Bear in mind it must be based on facts and evidences one has found out about the company and not just based on rumours and hear-says. That is why news and financial statements about a company must be assessed together for a better and complete picture of the situation. If the situation is not until that dire, then perhaps one can consider just reducing partially his shares instead of total sell off to reduce his risk of total loss in capital.

Really dire situations include filling for bankruptcy and investigations for cases of offences and frauds. Then perhaps one will have to quickly sell off totally all his shares to recover back as much as possible whatever remaining capital in such extereme cases. If not too extreme situations, usually paring down the amount of shares is already good enough.

At the end of the day, it depends on your belief whether the company' s fundamentals will maintain status quo, strengthen over time or deteroriate over time. I usually do not do anything until I see concrete trends in the news and financial results of the company. Thus, if one has monitored the progress of his invested company through time, one will already have an intimate understanding of his invested company to see any potential red flags earlier on when they start forming and especially confirming a trend which is a trend of deteroriating fundamentals.

Pls note that I am not suggesting any investment actions about Asian Pay TV Trust here that you should take. So far whatever I share are things I have noticed and picked up from their financial statements. You make the call here as I also have to make a disclaimer here that my sharing is not comprehensive and complete so I will not be responsible for any actions you make concerning the buying and selling of shares of APTT. But I do wish you the best in your investments! Cheers!    

pinkowl      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 15:23) Posted: Thanks, Jeremy.  Yes, they are a monopoly in the region, so income should be very stable. However, the price has plunged a lot the past few days. I wonder what bad news there are to come.  What' s your opinion - to hold or to cut loss?  jeremyow      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 14:39) Posted: However, we got to give them credit as well because probably their nature of businesses is a stable cash generating business promising stable recurring income due to their licensing and contract agreements which have a long term nature of locked in stable recurring income. Thus, they are probably not afraid of taking on a high gearing (with high amount of debts) with support from stable regular recurring cash generating businesses. As always, pls continue to do one' s due diligence as there are good points and points of concern to consider as well for assessing any businesses.

 

Thanks, Jeremy. 

Yes, they are a monopoly in the region, so income should be very stable. However, the price has plunged a lot the past few days. I wonder what bad news there are to come. 

What' s your opinion - to hold or to cut loss? 

jeremyow      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 14:39) Posted: However, we got to give them credit as well because probably their nature of businesses is a stable cash generating business promising stable recurring income due to their licensing and contract agreements which have a long term nature of locked in stable recurring income. Thus, they are probably not afraid of taking on a high gearing (with high amount of debts) with support from stable regular recurring cash generating businesses. As always, pls continue to do one' s due diligence as there are good points and points of concern to consider as well for assessing any businesses. jeremyow      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 14:29) Posted: Hi pinkowl, yes you are right that they are able to service their interest and other finance costs from their businesses. If you examine their 9M financial results (which I prefer to use 9M results instead of one quarter' s results to have a better grasp of a full year' s view to minimise any wide fluctuations from quarter to quarter results), they have about $107million operating profit while their interest and other finance costs is about $40 million. The operating profit already can cover the interest and finance costs, so they have no issue with paying their interest and other finance costs. And if you look at their past few years' financial results, they have no problems with paying their interest and other finance costs from their operating profit and finally still have net profit every year. Thus, they are still profitable.  On the cashflows statement side under cashflows from financing activities, their interest and finance costs have increased over last year' s same 9M period. This year' s 9M period shows cash-outflow of $40 million compared to about $28 million for last year' s 9M period. Seems more cash are used to pay (cash-outflows towards) their interest and finance costs over this year' s 9M period as compared to last year.  I will watch out for their interest and finance costs to see the yearly trend. If it continues to rise at a fast rate over consecutive years, it may mean they are either taking on more loans and interest bearing liabilities or their average cost of financing has gone up due to any revision in the interest rates and finance costs on existing loans and liabilities. If interest and finance costs shoot up too fast, it can become a potential hidden concern because if due to some downturn in the businesses, it may have problems fulfilling the payment of interest and finance costs which could bring a company down to potential insolvency (bankruptcy).  As of now Sep 2016, the gearing of Asian Pay TV Trust is around 54.1%. Last year Dec 2015 gearing was 52.7%. Clearly, there is a slight increase in the gearing over this year' s 9M period. As mentioned by nngeeh and also shown by the high gearing, there is a high amount of long term debt of about $1.2 billion vs $48 million cash and cash equivalents on hand. In this case, Asian Pay TV Trust' s gearing has exceeded that of most REITs which generally REITs try to maintain their gearing to be 45% and lesser.  So, a shareholder is really enjoying a good dividend yield of 10% and more at current share prices. But there is a catch to this in that the current enjoyment of this high dividend yield comes at a price to pay. This price is obviously not a high share price to pay (since the Trust' s share price has already been beaten down to be cheap now) but the price of taking on the risk of a high gearing with potential problems that could spring up should the Trust not be able to maintain the payment of interest and finance costs or refinancing of its long term debts when they come due or not be able to sustain the payment of their dividends at current amounts due to no improvement or even worse, deteroriation in their cashflows due to any unforeseen problems encountered in their operations.

 

Dividends of 16.25 x 4 quarter

So 65/410 = 15.8% per year

Where to get even u put in bank....

 

Now even more attractive at 0.41 ....
Nimble ... Some more

 

No! tis counter is jus like hpht, tey will sell down a lot every now n then jus to cover dvd payout n other cost. Go check record.

churnw      ( Date: 19-Dec-2016 16:02) Posted: Pls look into this counter , very attractive .....

 

However, we got to give them credit as well because probably their nature of businesses is a stable cash generating business promising stable recurring income due to their licensing and contract agreements which have a long term nature of locked in stable recurring income. Thus, they are probably not afraid of taking on a high gearing (with high amount of debts) with support from stable regular recurring cash generating businesses. As always, pls continue to do one' s due diligence as there are good points and points of concern to consider as well for assessing any businesses.

jeremyow      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 14:29) Posted: Hi pinkowl, yes you are right that they are able to service their interest and other finance costs from their businesses. If you examine their 9M financial results (which I prefer to use 9M results instead of one quarter' s results to have a better grasp of a full year' s view to minimise any wide fluctuations from quarter to quarter results), they have about $107million operating profit while their interest and other finance costs is about $40 million. The operating profit already can cover the interest and finance costs, so they have no issue with paying their interest and other finance costs. And if you look at their past few years' financial results, they have no problems with paying their interest and other finance costs from their operating profit and finally still have net profit every year. Thus, they are still profitable.  On the cashflows statement side under cashflows from financing activities, their interest and finance costs have increased over last year' s same 9M period. This year' s 9M period shows cash-outflow of $40 million compared to about $28 million for last year' s 9M period. Seems more cash are used to pay (cash-outflows towards) their interest and finance costs over this year' s 9M period as compared to last year.  I will watch out for their interest and finance costs to see the yearly trend. If it continues to rise at a fast rate over consecutive years, it may mean they are either taking on more loans and interest bearing liabilities or their average cost of financing has gone up due to any revision in the interest rates and finance costs on existing loans and liabilities. If interest and finance costs shoot up too fast, it can become a potential hidden concern because if due to some downturn in the businesses, it may have problems fulfilling the payment of interest and finance costs which could bring a company down to potential insolvency (bankruptcy).  As of now Sep 2016, the gearing of Asian Pay TV Trust is around 54.1%. Last year Dec 2015 gearing was 52.7%. Clearly, there is a slight increase in the gearing over this year' s 9M period. As mentioned by nngeeh and also shown by the high gearing, there is a high amount of long term debt of about $1.2 billion vs $48 million cash and cash equivalents on hand. In this case, Asian Pay TV Trust' s gearing has exceeded that of most REITs which generally REITs try to maintain their gearing to be 45% and lesser.  So, a shareholder is really enjoying a good dividend yield of 10% and more at current share prices. But there is a catch to this in that the current enjoyment of this high dividend yield comes at a price to pay. This price is obviously not a high share price to pay (since the Trust' s share price has already been beaten down to be cheap now) but the price of taking on the risk of a high gearing with potential problems that could spring up should the Trust not be able to maintain the payment of interest and finance costs or refinancing of its long term debts when they come due or not be able to sustain the payment of their dividends at current amounts due to no improvement or even worse, deteroriation in their cashflows due to any unforeseen problems encountered in their operations.     pinkowl      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 10:42) Posted: I' m not an expert in FA. Have recently re-read their financial statement, and interpret that they are able to service their interest from the stable earnings they receive (JeremyOw, did I interpret correctly? ). So my intention is to wait till they are done with the infrastructure layout and see if their results will improve. Maybe in 2017 or 2018.

 

Hi pinkowl, yes you are right that they are able to service their interest and other finance costs from their businesses. If you examine their 9M financial results (which I prefer to use 9M results instead of one quarter' s results to have a better grasp of a full year' s view to minimise any wide fluctuations from quarter to quarter results), they have about $107million operating profit while their interest and other finance costs is about $40 million. The operating profit already can cover the interest and finance costs, so they have no issue with paying their interest and other finance costs. And if you look at their past few years' financial results, they have no problems with paying their interest and other finance costs from their operating profit and finally still have net profit every year. Thus, they are still profitable. 

On the cashflows statement side under cashflows from financing activities, their interest and finance costs have increased over last year' s same 9M period. This year' s 9M period shows cash-outflow of $40 million compared to about $28 million for last year' s 9M period. Seems more cash are used to pay (cash-outflows towards) their interest and finance costs over this year' s 9M period as compared to last year. 

I will watch out for their interest and finance costs to see the yearly trend. If it continues to rise at a fast rate over consecutive years, it may mean they are either taking on more loans and interest bearing liabilities or their average cost of financing has gone up due to any revision in the interest rates and finance costs on existing loans and liabilities. If interest and finance costs shoot up too fast, it can become a potential hidden concern because if due to some downturn in the businesses, it may have problems fulfilling the payment of interest and finance costs which could bring a company down to potential insolvency (bankruptcy). 

As of now Sep 2016, the gearing of Asian Pay TV Trust is around 54.1%. Last year Dec 2015 gearing was 52.7%. Clearly, there is a slight increase in the gearing over this year' s 9M period. As mentioned by nngeeh and also shown by the high gearing, there is a high amount of long term debt of about $1.2 billion vs $48 million cash and cash equivalents on hand. In this case, Asian Pay TV Trust' s gearing has exceeded that of most REITs which generally REITs try to maintain their gearing to be 45% and lesser. 

So, a shareholder is really enjoying a good dividend yield of 10% and more at current share prices. But there is a catch to this in that the current enjoyment of this high dividend yield comes at a price to pay. This price is obviously not a high share price to pay (since the Trust' s share price has already been beaten down to be cheap now) but the price of taking on the risk of a high gearing with potential problems that could spring up should the Trust not be able to maintain the payment of interest and finance costs or refinancing of its long term debts when they come due or not be able to sustain the payment of their dividends at current amounts due to no improvement or even worse, deteroriation in their cashflows due to any unforeseen problems encountered in their operations.    

pinkowl      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 10:42) Posted: I' m not an expert in FA. Have recently re-read their financial statement, and interpret that they are able to service their interest from the stable earnings they receive (JeremyOw, did I interpret correctly? ). So my intention is to wait till they are done with the infrastructure layout and see if their results will improve. Maybe in 2017 or 2018. nngeeh      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 10:29) Posted: Thanks Pinkowl Beside the high capex, i' m worried about the high debt of 1.2B vs 48M cash on hand. Unlike REIT, the assets are made up of multiple properties which the company can liquidate individual property to reduce debb, the asset tha AAPT is made up mainly of the Taiwan license which they value it at $2.3B. They can' t liquidate the license. So ...their debt will going up, and the additional cash generated from profit is going back into the capex. They are also using the current cash, and loan to fund the capex (as profit is unable to cover) and dividend ... it' s not sustainable. If you look at China Fish, their main asset is the fishing license in Peru which is valued at more than $1B. When they ran into  cashflow problem, as they can' t liquidate the license .... they end up filling for chapter 11 (of cause, beside the debt problem, they also  were under CAD investigation). Maybe we can start looking after 2017 when their capex is going down ... and below the profit. We' ll also need to  know how they plan to  reduce the  $1.2B debt.

 

Technically, yes - they are profitable (if you exclude the capex and dividend). But if you take into consideration of div and capex .... they will need additional loan to sustain. We' ll have to see after 2017 ... when if they can reduce the capex to be below their profit

pinkowl      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 11:31) Posted: Yes. Noted that it' s still profitable after accounting for ITDA.   nngeeh      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 11:12) Posted: Hi Pinkowl, I got the value from their 3rd Qtr report. You can look at their asset which value the license as $1.2B (intangible asset). Even though the operation cash flow is reflected as $42M, but is before tax, interest and amortisation. The amortisation of 12M (which is from the capex from previous qtr or last year (not sure)) $12M). This $12M is actually made up of equipment which in theory ...  not that easily to liquidate .... and if you really liquadate it,  you can only get back a fraction of the  purchase value.  If you deduct the amortisation, Tax interest and amortisation, and other minor cost, the profit is actually $10M.

 

Yes. Noted that it' s still profitable after accounting for ITDA.  

nngeeh      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 11:12) Posted: Hi Pinkowl, I got the value from their 3rd Qtr report. You can look at their asset which value the license as $1.2B (intangible asset). Even though the operation cash flow is reflected as $42M, but is before tax, interest and amortisation. The amortisation of 12M (which is from the capex from previous qtr or last year (not sure)) $12M). This $12M is actually made up of equipment which in theory ...  not that easily to liquidate .... and if you really liquadate it,  you can only get back a fraction of the  purchase value.  If you deduct the amortisation, Tax interest and amortisation, and other minor cost, the profit is actually $10M.  pinkowl      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 10:42) Posted: I' m not an expert in FA. Have recently re-read their financial statement, and interpret that they are able to service their interest from the stable earnings they receive (JeremyOw, did I interpret correctly? ). So my intention is to wait till they are done with the infrastructure layout and see if their results will improve. Maybe in 2017 or 2018.