Asian Pay TV Tr   

Asian Pay Tv Tr

I brought. Another rounf

 

bought .39.. haiz.. and i do not think this is the lowest...

 

 

What happen...

Anyone got any idea

 

someone sold 1.5 million shares at 0.4 at one go. Ki siao..they really dying to exit. sigh..

 

its still dropping.. break .40 already.

 

Yes , I feel so , I will add to my position. ..
Great Singapore sale now ..

 

my bold conjecture on this stock is

Someone has been pushing down the price for accumulation.

$0.40 is the bottom. Price will fly up to at least $0.70  in 2017.

You heard it here first. Lets see if im right or wrong.  

 

Then who is doing the selling ?

junction      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 15:50) Posted: Shareholders Buying  APTTF   FundsInstitutions   Name Shares  Bought % Total Shares Held % Chg from  Prior Port % Total Assets   Date of  Portfolio       Atlantis Fund Management Ltd 7,176,000 0.50 New 0.86   09/30/2016       2CG Senhouse Investments Ltd 1,000,000 0.07 New 1.69   10/31/2016       Wells Fargo Funds Management LLC 880,300 0.62 10.91 0.37   10/31/2016       Samsung Asset Management Co Ltd 522,900 0.06 164.49 0.78   09/30/2016       AmInvestment Management SdnBhd 414,800 0.03 New 4.49   11/30/2015       Invesco Hong Kong Limited 129,500 2.05 0.44 2.01   06/30/2016       Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc 7,929 0.05 0.98 0.03   12/19/2016       State Street Global Advisors Ltd 5,841 0.02 2.04 0.06   12/19/2016       Morphic Asset Management Pty Limited 76 0 3.83 0   11/30/2016     junction      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 15:09) Posted: The company reported they have refinanced at a lower cost and there will be no refiancing for the next 4 years.   They have also reported they are not expecting not much changes in 2017 earnings/distribution. So I think selling is overdone.   I will collect a bit more at crrent prices.   I cannot predict the short sellors motive but I hope Temasik, the largest shareholder, will initiate a buy and catch the shortsellers.   Then we have a show to see,.

 

junction      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 15:09) Posted: The company reported they have refinanced at a lower cost and there will be no refiancing for the next 4 years.   They have also reported they are not expecting not much changes in 2017 earnings/distribution. So I think selling is overdone.   I will collect a bit more at crrent prices.   I cannot predict the short sellors motive but I hope Temasik, the largest shareholder, will initiate a buy and catch the shortsellers.   Then we have a show to see,. GuavaXF30      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 09:25) Posted: I am keeping my lots but I will  not add for now. Wait for better clarity. The company have to reassure investors that their business model will continue to generate cash from operations. And not borrowings.

 

Any thoughts abt viewing from the angle of the status of Taiwan itself?  With the DPP in power n we throw the Trump spanner into the works n the PRC' s hostile respons n what I see as the subtle economic blockade of Taiwan, n u get not a very pretty picture.  I' m not saying that the island' s gonna be  de-stabilise.  In fact, I think calm wld still prevail.  But this may be an excuse to dump the stock?  Added to this is, of course, the fact that the outlook for APTV going forward may not be rosy too (see their presentation slide below - sorry I cldn' t paste the extract better, can' t even space out the words).  So, there we have it - perhaps some reason for the share px slide .....

 

Extract of APTV presentation

 

focusin2016remainsondrivinggrowthincashflowsthroughup-sellingandcross-sellingofservicesacrossTBC&rsquo ssubscriberbaseandprogressingthenetworkandoperationalexpansioningreaterTaichungregion

&ndash Totalrevenueforthefullyear2016isanticipatedtobeinfluencedbyanumberoffactorsincludingthecontinuedweaknessintheTaiwaneseeconomy,marginallylowerBasiccableTVratesinthreeofTBC&rsquo sfivefranchiseareasandthenon-recurrenceofone-offrevenueitemsgeneratedin2015

&ndash OverallEBITDAforthefullyear2016isexpectedtobemarginallylowerthan2015

&ndash AcceleratedcapitalexpendituredrivenbyPremiumdigitalcableTVasaresultofcableTVlawamendments

&ndash APTTdistributionof1.625centsperunitwillbepaidon23December2016

&ndash APTTdistributionguidanceofatleast1.625centsperunitforthequarterending31December2016,subjecttonomaterialchangesinplanningassumptionsincludingforassetperformanceandrefinancing

TBCisastablebusinessthatiswellpositionedforfuturegrowth

 

The company reported they have refinanced at a lower cost and there will be no refiancing for the next 4 years.   They have also reported they are not expecting not much changes in 2017 earnings/distribution. So I think selling is overdone.   I will collect a bit more at crrent prices.   I cannot predict the short sellors motive but I hope Temasik, the largest shareholder, will initiate a buy and catch the shortsellers.   Then we have a show to see,.

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 09:25) Posted: I am keeping my lots but I will  not add for now. Wait for better clarity. The company have to reassure investors that their business model will continue to generate cash from operations. And not borrowings. churnw      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 08:18) Posted: I feel this is a very stable business....

 

The share price keeps dropping non stop, no idea when it' s the bottom.

churnw      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 11:20) Posted: Hi guava, I feel it is low already , might bring out my mini war chest to buy . Any dividend is quite good at 15% per year Where to find....

 

Yes. Can continue to monitor the progress in their cashflows. Ideally, their cash inflows from operating activities must see further growth to be adequate in covering its required cash outflows in capital expenditures. Either increase operating cash inflows or reduce capital expenditure but best is both can happen. Then, they will likely be able to maintain and even grow their amount of yearly dividends. We also need to see how much their interest and finance costs will be like next year because if they have reduced their borrowing margins with the refinancing done middle of this year, hopefully this part will see reduction as well so they may see a turnover to net increase in cash and cash equivalents every year from now. Then their management of cashflows will be better and dividends could become sustainable at current yields.  

NL0261      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 10:53) Posted: Ya, no logic at all, by just borrowing without a good business plan n diluting share px further only. ( dvd also can't cover big drop ) GuavaXF30      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 09:25) Posted: I am keeping my lots but I will  not add for now. Wait for better clarity. The company have to reassure investors that their business model will continue to generate cash from operations. And not borrowings.

 

Hi guava,

I feel it is low already , might bring out my mini war chest to buy .

Any dividend is quite good at 15% per year
Where to find....

 

Ya, no logic at all, by just borrowing without a good business plan n diluting share px further only. ( dvd also can't cover big drop )

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 09:25) Posted: I am keeping my lots but I will  not add for now. Wait for better clarity. The company have to reassure investors that their business model will continue to generate cash from operations. And not borrowings. churnw      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 08:18) Posted: I feel this is a very stable business....

 

I am keeping my lots but I will  not add for now. Wait for better clarity.

The company have to reassure investors that their business model will continue to generate cash from operations. And not borrowings.

churnw      ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 08:18) Posted: I feel this is a very stable business....

 

I feel this is a very stable business....

 

Seems they have taken care of their borrowing needs all the way to year 2019 with attractive terms and pricing reducing their overall borrowing margins and arrangement fees. So their long term debts is not a major concern now and out of the way. Probably they also may not need to raise equity as well unless they have expansion and growth plans for the next few years that requires huge amount of capital. Just have to watch out for their ability to keep up their amount of dividends as the amount of yearly dividends paid per unit has indeed decreased over the past three years.  

jeremyow      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 20:15) Posted: BORROWING FACILITIES As announced in July 2016, APTT has secured a new multicurrency term loan facility in an aggregate amount of $125.0 million and a multicurrency revolving loan facility in an aggregate amount of $125.0 million (the &ldquo New Facilities&rdquo ). Separately, in October 2016, TBC completed the refinancing of its existing NT$32.0 billion borrowing facilities (the &ldquo Previous Facilities&rdquo ) with new seven year facilities of NT$28.0 billion (the &ldquo Revised Facilities&rdquo ). The New and Revised Facilities will enable TBC to fund the necessary capital expenditure to digitise all of TBC&rsquo s franchise areas, satisfy TBC&rsquo s borrowing needs through to 2019 and remove the need for any significant principal amortisation of the Facilities for the next three years. The New Facilities diversify APTT&rsquo s funding sources and the successful refinancing of the Previous Facilities demonstrate the strong support and confidence of the banks in APTT&rsquo s business as overall borrowing margins and arrangement fees have decreased compared to the Previous Facilities. The New and Revised Facilities provide long term funding certainty, with attractive terms and pricing.  jeremyow      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 20:02) Posted: Maybe can consider finding out what kind of long term debt they hold and when the debt will be due? For the ongoing interest and finance costs, it is still a relatively small amount and they should be able to manage it based on their current cashflows. The risk is more in the $1.2 billion long term debt when it comes due. If they can deal with it in advance of the deadline for the debt repayment and announced their plans ahead of time how they are going to deal on that, it will be good. This I think is the major ticking time bomb. If they run out of options to refinance their debts, of course then a rights issue or private placement will be in the cards. Then shareholders will have to plough back part of their dividends they have received so far for subscription of the rights shares (or see their ownership in the Trust get diluted if they do not subscribe the rights shares) and the dividend yield will then not be as attractive as they are touted to be. Of course, a rights issue could also be raised for expansion and growth needs. If it is for this purpose, then it is not too bad. As APTT has limited liquidity, I suppose even if they wanted to expand and grow in future, they may need to raise equity instead of loans. This is also because they already have high gearing of about 54.1% currently. It is unlikely they can get anymore loans for expansion and growth needs and if they should get additional loans, their total gearing will increase further subjecting them to even higher risk of holding very high amounts of debts.

 

BORROWING FACILITIES As announced in July 2016,

APTT has secured a new multicurrency term loan facility in an aggregate amount of $125.0 million and a multicurrency revolving loan facility in an aggregate amount of $125.0 million (the &ldquo New Facilities&rdquo ). Separately, in October 2016, TBC completed the refinancing of its existing NT$32.0 billion borrowing facilities (the &ldquo Previous Facilities&rdquo ) with new seven year facilities of NT$28.0 billion (the &ldquo Revised Facilities&rdquo ). The New and Revised Facilities will enable TBC to fund the necessary capital expenditure to digitise all of TBC&rsquo s franchise areas, satisfy TBC&rsquo s borrowing needs through to 2019 and remove the need for any significant principal amortisation of the Facilities for the next three years. The New Facilities diversify APTT&rsquo s funding sources and the successful refinancing of the Previous Facilities demonstrate the strong support and confidence of the banks in APTT&rsquo s business as overall borrowing margins and arrangement fees have decreased compared to the Previous Facilities. The New and Revised Facilities provide long term funding certainty, with attractive terms and pricing. 

jeremyow      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 20:02) Posted: Maybe can consider finding out what kind of long term debt they hold and when the debt will be due? For the ongoing interest and finance costs, it is still a relatively small amount and they should be able to manage it based on their current cashflows. The risk is more in the $1.2 billion long term debt when it comes due. If they can deal with it in advance of the deadline for the debt repayment and announced their plans ahead of time how they are going to deal on that, it will be good. This I think is the major ticking time bomb. If they run out of options to refinance their debts, of course then a rights issue or private placement will be in the cards. Then shareholders will have to plough back part of their dividends they have received so far for subscription of the rights shares (or see their ownership in the Trust get diluted if they do not subscribe the rights shares) and the dividend yield will then not be as attractive as they are touted to be. Of course, a rights issue could also be raised for expansion and growth needs. If it is for this purpose, then it is not too bad. As APTT has limited liquidity, I suppose even if they wanted to expand and grow in future, they may need to raise equity instead of loans. This is also because they already have high gearing of about 54.1% currently. It is unlikely they can get anymore loans for expansion and growth needs and if they should get additional loans, their total gearing will increase further subjecting them to even higher risk of holding very high amounts of debts.     GuavaXF30      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 16:47) Posted: I wonder if the reason for the sell-down is expectations that they will go to the market for funds. That is RI ?

 

Maybe can consider finding out what kind of long term debt they hold and when the debt will be due? For the ongoing interest and finance costs, it is still a relatively small amount and they should be able to manage it based on their current cashflows. The risk is more in the $1.2 billion long term debt when it comes due. If they can deal with it in advance of the deadline for the debt repayment and announced their plans ahead of time how they are going to deal on that, it will be good. This I think is the major ticking time bomb.

If they run out of options to refinance their debts, of course then a rights issue or private placement will be in the cards. Then shareholders will have to plough back part of their dividends they have received so far for subscription of the rights shares (or see their ownership in the Trust get diluted if they do not subscribe the rights shares) and the dividend yield will then not be as attractive as they are touted to be.

Of course, a rights issue could also be raised for expansion and growth needs. If it is for this purpose, then it is not too bad. As APTT has limited liquidity, I suppose even if they wanted to expand and grow in future, they may need to raise equity instead of loans. This is also because they already have high gearing of about 54.1% currently. It is unlikely they can get anymore loans for expansion and growth needs and if they should get additional loans, their total gearing will increase further subjecting them to even higher risk of holding very high amounts of debts.    

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 16:47) Posted: I wonder if the reason for the sell-down is expectations that they will go to the market for funds. That is RI ?