ISDN
Last:0.7
+0.005
ISDN new
Post Reply
381-400 of 573
true enough SGX is an extremely small market and funds will not allocate huge money in here.. Look at the US market even every ah pig ah dog stock also can hit a few billions valuations. whereas compare to SGX stocks.. even making healthy flow of profits.. PE still even 1 or lower.. P/B got so many good stocks below 1.
how to say. thats y so many pple choose to trade US stocks these days given that easy access through so many trading platforms..
Pro_trader ( Date: 03-Jul-2023 09:59) Posted:
Sound like knowledgeable but actually does he know his stuff? His economic theory salah liaoz.
Someone in Investingnote point out alreadyz
But never mind that - if one understand stock markets, the market discounts the future lah - All these projects and cash flow coming online - all already known facts. It is basically utility company - which utility company is growth stock when the cash flow all mature and discounted already? All this hype about how good the cash flow is etc only comes in handy in recession when surety is a defensive feature... but these cash flows not yet come on stream.
Also compare the PE with a stock in another country - just show totally clueless about how markets function. FX rate also different, macroeconomics also different... interest rates also different.... Different markets different - US high PE because of liquidity conditions etc. SG market low PE because less liquid and less depth. All capital markets different - if one to compare, then compare same country / same exchange.
Hugh dose of confirmation bias lah. At the end of the day, where is the share price now and what is the trend? |
|
Sound like knowledgeable but actually does he know his stuff? His economic theory salah liaoz.
Someone in Investingnote point out alreadyz
But never mind that - if one understand stock markets, the market discounts the future lah - All these projects and cash flow coming online - all already known facts. It is basically utility company - which utility company is growth stock when the cash flow all mature and discounted already? All this hype about how good the cash flow is etc only comes in handy in recession when surety is a defensive feature... but these cash flows not yet come on stream.
Also compare the PE with a stock in another country - just show totally clueless about how markets function. FX rate also different, macroeconomics also different... interest rates also different.... Different markets different - US high PE because of liquidity conditions etc. SG market low PE because less liquid and less depth. All capital markets different - if one to compare, then compare same country / same exchange.
Hugh dose of confirmation bias lah. At the end of the day, where is the share price now and what is the trend?
I can tell you are very sophisticated and knowledgeable and know your stuff really well. But we can?t deny what rest said that china don?t give real data. If we gonna still believe what China say , we are as good as condoning what they did hiding the world about covid case in Wuhan in 2020
cedricyang ( Date: 02-Jul-2023 09:53) Posted:
$ISDN(I07.SI) 5 Reasons to look forward to in 2H 2023 and beyond
1) China' s commitment to meet its 5% GDP target. As a centralised government, they have much control over the components of GDP. This may pose a narrative amongst naysayers that the figures are unreliable. However the growth of China over the past decade is undeniable if one has been to China. Even without going into China, we can see an increase in revenue of international companies relating to Chinese spending. One of the key focus of third term Xi is to bring the economy up again in post covid world. The whole world is undergoing recession (negative consecutive quarters of GDP) and inflationary problem, which crippled the monetary policies that could be effective. By increasing the interest rates, central bank will help cure the inflation problem, but risk crushing demand. By reducing the interest rates to boost demand to prevent recession, central bank will risk inflation. However in China, they still have GDP growth and healthy inflationary environment (last hit was < 1%). This would mean that China Central Bank can have monetary measures and flexibilities to boost its economy further.
2) China' s appointment of Pan Gong Sheng as head of Central bank (wef 1 July). https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-forex-regulator-pan-gongsheng-named-central-bank-party-boss-3599591
This guy is good, with the experience to do it. With this, we likely could see a stop to RMB depreciation due to lower relative interest rates. With RMB bottoming / strengthening in 2H, ISDN stands to benefit.
3) Hydro power plants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants will bring an estimated earnings of $5-6M full year. This is a rich, recurring, recession & demand proof earnings that will not only generate cashflow, but opening up opportunities for spin offs, listings, or selling of assets. If we are to study similar listcos in Indonesia, the companies are listed at 25-35 earnings multiple.
4) Future of hydroplants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants make ISDN a sponsor and developer in Indonesia. This could mean that the development of the rest of concessions given to ISDN can be accelerated. We can expect to see more hydroplants COD in 2025 and beyond. This will further boost its ROE.
5) ISDN Software & Industry 4.0. This is a sleeping giant ready to wake up. China is focused on advanced manufacturing and " real" economy, where technology and innovation are in their scope. Unlike other countries where financial innovation and manipulation are their focus, China choose to focus on real tangible capabilities, especially in advanced manufacturing. This will greatly improve the margin and scalability. ISDN software, with its giant western technology partners, is able to find its way into the Chinese market few handful western powerhouse could. This includes customizations according to the needs of clients, bespoke analytics, and AI capabilities to do recommendations.
Quoting Keith from ISDN " ISDN doesn' t seek to deliver to the market a standard product platform for Industry 4.0. It' s almost the opposite of that. ISDN has assembled, over 30 years, a very broad range of technologies and capabilities to deliver what we call the full stack of Industry 4.0 and that starts at the very bottom -- from motion control components that move the fingers, arms of manufacturing machines all the way to the PLC and the control software that controls the move motion intelligently and then popping up from that the software that coordinates machines on the line, the software that orchestrates lines in a factory, and then the communications &ndash wireless, wired-- that run between robots, between components inside a machinery, and then sitting above all of that manufacturing execution systems the supply chain, the IOT connectivity. That' s an enormous stack of technology that doesn' t spring into existence overnight. The capabilities have to be built customer by customer, engineer by engineer, over many years and the proposition for ISDN is not that we have a single platform to deliver. There are vendors who provide large-scale technology platforms -- we recognize foremost that customers in China and Asia who are adopting Industry 4.0 do not want to buy a gigantic platform that looks like a Swiss army knife that can do lots of things. They generally prefer platforms that are very tailored to the specific business because a manufacturer of solar panels is going to be quite different from an advanced transportation train signal control system and that' s going to be different from an industrial network that goes up into satellites as well as down on the ground in the field."
With these few pointers, long term investors who know the business and management can take comfort in the tailwind of both china and Indonesia' s renewable energy future, and ignore short term fluctuations.
|
|
You thought this is supposed to be good but digging into can worms
cedricyang ( Date: 02-Jul-2023 09:53) Posted:
$ISDN(I07.SI) 5 Reasons to look forward to in 2H 2023 and beyond
1) China' s commitment to meet its 5% GDP target. As a centralised government, they have much control over the components of GDP. This may pose a narrative amongst naysayers that the figures are unreliable. However the growth of China over the past decade is undeniable if one has been to China. Even without going into China, we can see an increase in revenue of international companies relating to Chinese spending. One of the key focus of third term Xi is to bring the economy up again in post covid world. The whole world is undergoing recession (negative consecutive quarters of GDP) and inflationary problem, which crippled the monetary policies that could be effective. By increasing the interest rates, central bank will help cure the inflation problem, but risk crushing demand. By reducing the interest rates to boost demand to prevent recession, central bank will risk inflation. However in China, they still have GDP growth and healthy inflationary environment (last hit was < 1%). This would mean that China Central Bank can have monetary measures and flexibilities to boost its economy further.
2) China' s appointment of Pan Gong Sheng as head of Central bank (wef 1 July). https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-forex-regulator-pan-gongsheng-named-central-bank-party-boss-3599591
This guy is good, with the experience to do it. With this, we likely could see a stop to RMB depreciation due to lower relative interest rates. With RMB bottoming / strengthening in 2H, ISDN stands to benefit.
3) Hydro power plants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants will bring an estimated earnings of $5-6M full year. This is a rich, recurring, recession & demand proof earnings that will not only generate cashflow, but opening up opportunities for spin offs, listings, or selling of assets. If we are to study similar listcos in Indonesia, the companies are listed at 25-35 earnings multiple.
4) Future of hydroplants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants make ISDN a sponsor and developer in Indonesia. This could mean that the development of the rest of concessions given to ISDN can be accelerated. We can expect to see more hydroplants COD in 2025 and beyond. This will further boost its ROE.
5) ISDN Software & Industry 4.0. This is a sleeping giant ready to wake up. China is focused on advanced manufacturing and " real" economy, where technology and innovation are in their scope. Unlike other countries where financial innovation and manipulation are their focus, China choose to focus on real tangible capabilities, especially in advanced manufacturing. This will greatly improve the margin and scalability. ISDN software, with its giant western technology partners, is able to find its way into the Chinese market few handful western powerhouse could. This includes customizations according to the needs of clients, bespoke analytics, and AI capabilities to do recommendations.
Quoting Keith from ISDN " ISDN doesn' t seek to deliver to the market a standard product platform for Industry 4.0. It' s almost the opposite of that. ISDN has assembled, over 30 years, a very broad range of technologies and capabilities to deliver what we call the full stack of Industry 4.0 and that starts at the very bottom -- from motion control components that move the fingers, arms of manufacturing machines all the way to the PLC and the control software that controls the move motion intelligently and then popping up from that the software that coordinates machines on the line, the software that orchestrates lines in a factory, and then the communications &ndash wireless, wired-- that run between robots, between components inside a machinery, and then sitting above all of that manufacturing execution systems the supply chain, the IOT connectivity. That' s an enormous stack of technology that doesn' t spring into existence overnight. The capabilities have to be built customer by customer, engineer by engineer, over many years and the proposition for ISDN is not that we have a single platform to deliver. There are vendors who provide large-scale technology platforms -- we recognize foremost that customers in China and Asia who are adopting Industry 4.0 do not want to buy a gigantic platform that looks like a Swiss army knife that can do lots of things. They generally prefer platforms that are very tailored to the specific business because a manufacturer of solar panels is going to be quite different from an advanced transportation train signal control system and that' s going to be different from an industrial network that goes up into satellites as well as down on the ground in the field."
With these few pointers, long term investors who know the business and management can take comfort in the tailwind of both china and Indonesia' s renewable energy future, and ignore short term fluctuations.
|
|
Cedric , you do know that China data never real.
It will be hard to see China recovering over night. For example, the private debt problem is a multi-year problem. Many sg listed companies having similar exposure are all suffering the same. ISDN must have felt it too.
Fortunately, ISDN has the renewable energy business like hydropower that might help with the bottom line. They have have just COD the fwo plants in Anggoci and Sisira, in addition to the one in Lau Biang. CIMB reckoned that hydro plant operation has been priced in, some do not think so. But power plant investment is capital intensive and would take many years to payback before one could see good contribution. Lets see how the stock price would develop going ahead.
cedricyang ( Date: 02-Jul-2023 09:53) Posted:
$ISDN(I07.SI) 5 Reasons to look forward to in 2H 2023 and beyond
1) China' s commitment to meet its 5% GDP target. As a centralised government, they have much control over the components of GDP. This may pose a narrative amongst naysayers that the figures are unreliable. However the growth of China over the past decade is undeniable if one has been to China. Even without going into China, we can see an increase in revenue of international companies relating to Chinese spending. One of the key focus of third term Xi is to bring the economy up again in post covid world. The whole world is undergoing recession (negative consecutive quarters of GDP) and inflationary problem, which crippled the monetary policies that could be effective. By increasing the interest rates, central bank will help cure the inflation problem, but risk crushing demand. By reducing the interest rates to boost demand to prevent recession, central bank will risk inflation. However in China, they still have GDP growth and healthy inflationary environment (last hit was < 1%). This would mean that China Central Bank can have monetary measures and flexibilities to boost its economy further.
2) China' s appointment of Pan Gong Sheng as head of Central bank (wef 1 July). https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-forex-regulator-pan-gongsheng-named-central-bank-party-boss-3599591
This guy is good, with the experience to do it. With this, we likely could see a stop to RMB depreciation due to lower relative interest rates. With RMB bottoming / strengthening in 2H, ISDN stands to benefit.
3) Hydro power plants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants will bring an estimated earnings of $5-6M full year. This is a rich, recurring, recession & demand proof earnings that will not only generate cashflow, but opening up opportunities for spin offs, listings, or selling of assets. If we are to study similar listcos in Indonesia, the companies are listed at 25-35 earnings multiple.
4) Future of hydroplants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants make ISDN a sponsor and developer in Indonesia. This could mean that the development of the rest of concessions given to ISDN can be accelerated. We can expect to see more hydroplants COD in 2025 and beyond. This will further boost its ROE.
5) ISDN Software & Industry 4.0. This is a sleeping giant ready to wake up. China is focused on advanced manufacturing and " real" economy, where technology and innovation are in their scope. Unlike other countries where financial innovation and manipulation are their focus, China choose to focus on real tangible capabilities, especially in advanced manufacturing. This will greatly improve the margin and scalability. ISDN software, with its giant western technology partners, is able to find its way into the Chinese market few handful western powerhouse could. This includes customizations according to the needs of clients, bespoke analytics, and AI capabilities to do recommendations.
Quoting Keith from ISDN " ISDN doesn' t seek to deliver to the market a standard product platform for Industry 4.0. It' s almost the opposite of that. ISDN has assembled, over 30 years, a very broad range of technologies and capabilities to deliver what we call the full stack of Industry 4.0 and that starts at the very bottom -- from motion control components that move the fingers, arms of manufacturing machines all the way to the PLC and the control software that controls the move motion intelligently and then popping up from that the software that coordinates machines on the line, the software that orchestrates lines in a factory, and then the communications &ndash wireless, wired-- that run between robots, between components inside a machinery, and then sitting above all of that manufacturing execution systems the supply chain, the IOT connectivity. That' s an enormous stack of technology that doesn' t spring into existence overnight. The capabilities have to be built customer by customer, engineer by engineer, over many years and the proposition for ISDN is not that we have a single platform to deliver. There are vendors who provide large-scale technology platforms -- we recognize foremost that customers in China and Asia who are adopting Industry 4.0 do not want to buy a gigantic platform that looks like a Swiss army knife that can do lots of things. They generally prefer platforms that are very tailored to the specific business because a manufacturer of solar panels is going to be quite different from an advanced transportation train signal control system and that' s going to be different from an industrial network that goes up into satellites as well as down on the ground in the field."
With these few pointers, long term investors who know the business and management can take comfort in the tailwind of both china and Indonesia' s renewable energy future, and ignore short term fluctuations.
|
|
Cedric , it well documented that china don' t always give accurate data. Maybe just let market force decide.
cedricyang ( Date: 02-Jul-2023 09:53) Posted:
$ISDN(I07.SI) 5 Reasons to look forward to in 2H 2023 and beyond
1) China' s commitment to meet its 5% GDP target. As a centralised government, they have much control over the components of GDP. This may pose a narrative amongst naysayers that the figures are unreliable. However the growth of China over the past decade is undeniable if one has been to China. Even without going into China, we can see an increase in revenue of international companies relating to Chinese spending. One of the key focus of third term Xi is to bring the economy up again in post covid world. The whole world is undergoing recession (negative consecutive quarters of GDP) and inflationary problem, which crippled the monetary policies that could be effective. By increasing the interest rates, central bank will help cure the inflation problem, but risk crushing demand. By reducing the interest rates to boost demand to prevent recession, central bank will risk inflation. However in China, they still have GDP growth and healthy inflationary environment (last hit was < 1%). This would mean that China Central Bank can have monetary measures and flexibilities to boost its economy further.
2) China' s appointment of Pan Gong Sheng as head of Central bank (wef 1 July). https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-forex-regulator-pan-gongsheng-named-central-bank-party-boss-3599591
This guy is good, with the experience to do it. With this, we likely could see a stop to RMB depreciation due to lower relative interest rates. With RMB bottoming / strengthening in 2H, ISDN stands to benefit.
3) Hydro power plants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants will bring an estimated earnings of $5-6M full year. This is a rich, recurring, recession & demand proof earnings that will not only generate cashflow, but opening up opportunities for spin offs, listings, or selling of assets. If we are to study similar listcos in Indonesia, the companies are listed at 25-35 earnings multiple.
4) Future of hydroplants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants make ISDN a sponsor and developer in Indonesia. This could mean that the development of the rest of concessions given to ISDN can be accelerated. We can expect to see more hydroplants COD in 2025 and beyond. This will further boost its ROE.
5) ISDN Software & Industry 4.0. This is a sleeping giant ready to wake up. China is focused on advanced manufacturing and " real" economy, where technology and innovation are in their scope. Unlike other countries where financial innovation and manipulation are their focus, China choose to focus on real tangible capabilities, especially in advanced manufacturing. This will greatly improve the margin and scalability. ISDN software, with its giant western technology partners, is able to find its way into the Chinese market few handful western powerhouse could. This includes customizations according to the needs of clients, bespoke analytics, and AI capabilities to do recommendations.
Quoting Keith from ISDN " ISDN doesn' t seek to deliver to the market a standard product platform for Industry 4.0. It' s almost the opposite of that. ISDN has assembled, over 30 years, a very broad range of technologies and capabilities to deliver what we call the full stack of Industry 4.0 and that starts at the very bottom -- from motion control components that move the fingers, arms of manufacturing machines all the way to the PLC and the control software that controls the move motion intelligently and then popping up from that the software that coordinates machines on the line, the software that orchestrates lines in a factory, and then the communications &ndash wireless, wired-- that run between robots, between components inside a machinery, and then sitting above all of that manufacturing execution systems the supply chain, the IOT connectivity. That' s an enormous stack of technology that doesn' t spring into existence overnight. The capabilities have to be built customer by customer, engineer by engineer, over many years and the proposition for ISDN is not that we have a single platform to deliver. There are vendors who provide large-scale technology platforms -- we recognize foremost that customers in China and Asia who are adopting Industry 4.0 do not want to buy a gigantic platform that looks like a Swiss army knife that can do lots of things. They generally prefer platforms that are very tailored to the specific business because a manufacturer of solar panels is going to be quite different from an advanced transportation train signal control system and that' s going to be different from an industrial network that goes up into satellites as well as down on the ground in the field."
With these few pointers, long term investors who know the business and management can take comfort in the tailwind of both china and Indonesia' s renewable energy future, and ignore short term fluctuations.
|
|
$ISDN(I07.SI) 5 Reasons to look forward to in 2H 2023 and beyond
1) China' s commitment to meet its 5% GDP target. As a centralised government, they have much control over the components of GDP. This may pose a narrative amongst naysayers that the figures are unreliable. However the growth of China over the past decade is undeniable if one has been to China. Even without going into China, we can see an increase in revenue of international companies relating to Chinese spending. One of the key focus of third term Xi is to bring the economy up again in post covid world. The whole world is undergoing recession (negative consecutive quarters of GDP) and inflationary problem, which crippled the monetary policies that could be effective. By increasing the interest rates, central bank will help cure the inflation problem, but risk crushing demand. By reducing the interest rates to boost demand to prevent recession, central bank will risk inflation. However in China, they still have GDP growth and healthy inflationary environment (last hit was < 1%). This would mean that China Central Bank can have monetary measures and flexibilities to boost its economy further.
2) China' s appointment of Pan Gong Sheng as head of Central bank (wef 1 July). https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-forex-regulator-pan-gongsheng-named-central-bank-party-boss-3599591
This guy is good, with the experience to do it. With this, we likely could see a stop to RMB depreciation due to lower relative interest rates. With RMB bottoming / strengthening in 2H, ISDN stands to benefit.
3) Hydro power plants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants will bring an estimated earnings of $5-6M full year. This is a rich, recurring, recession & demand proof earnings that will not only generate cashflow, but opening up opportunities for spin offs, listings, or selling of assets. If we are to study similar listcos in Indonesia, the companies are listed at 25-35 earnings multiple.
4) Future of hydroplants. The commercialization of 3 hydroplants make ISDN a sponsor and developer in Indonesia. This could mean that the development of the rest of concessions given to ISDN can be accelerated. We can expect to see more hydroplants COD in 2025 and beyond. This will further boost its ROE.
5) ISDN Software & Industry 4.0. This is a sleeping giant ready to wake up. China is focused on advanced manufacturing and " real" economy, where technology and innovation are in their scope. Unlike other countries where financial innovation and manipulation are their focus, China choose to focus on real tangible capabilities, especially in advanced manufacturing. This will greatly improve the margin and scalability. ISDN software, with its giant western technology partners, is able to find its way into the Chinese market few handful western powerhouse could. This includes customizations according to the needs of clients, bespoke analytics, and AI capabilities to do recommendations.
Quoting Keith from ISDN " ISDN doesn' t seek to deliver to the market a standard product platform for Industry 4.0. It' s almost the opposite of that. ISDN has assembled, over 30 years, a very broad range of technologies and capabilities to deliver what we call the full stack of Industry 4.0 and that starts at the very bottom -- from motion control components that move the fingers, arms of manufacturing machines all the way to the PLC and the control software that controls the move motion intelligently and then popping up from that the software that coordinates machines on the line, the software that orchestrates lines in a factory, and then the communications &ndash wireless, wired-- that run between robots, between components inside a machinery, and then sitting above all of that manufacturing execution systems the supply chain, the IOT connectivity. That' s an enormous stack of technology that doesn' t spring into existence overnight. The capabilities have to be built customer by customer, engineer by engineer, over many years and the proposition for ISDN is not that we have a single platform to deliver. There are vendors who provide large-scale technology platforms -- we recognize foremost that customers in China and Asia who are adopting Industry 4.0 do not want to buy a gigantic platform that looks like a Swiss army knife that can do lots of things. They generally prefer platforms that are very tailored to the specific business because a manufacturer of solar panels is going to be quite different from an advanced transportation train signal control system and that' s going to be different from an industrial network that goes up into satellites as well as down on the ground in the field."
With these few pointers, long term investors who know the business and management can take comfort in the tailwind of both china and Indonesia' s renewable energy future, and ignore short term fluctuations.
Pardon my freedom of speech and bluntness too and don' t take it to heart..respect my freedom of speech too... everyone' s rights is reserved
tccroy ( Date: 01-Jul-2023 20:11) Posted:
How this stock is not 100% owned by anyone. No one has the right to criticize the comment made by anyone. Hope you know what is freedom of speech.
tccroy ( Date: 01-Jul-2023 11:11) Posted:
| What to do? Someone cannot see open. Why bother what others are commenting as long as they do not give negative comment on that stock. |
|
|
|
How this stock is not 100% owned by anyone. No one has the right to criticize the comment made by anyone. Hope you know what is freedom of speech.
tccroy ( Date: 01-Jul-2023 11:11) Posted:
What to do? Someone cannot see open. Why bother what others are commenting as long as they do not give negative comment on that stock.
pikachu ( Date: 01-Jul-2023 10:03) Posted:
|
|
|
Most times it' s not negative comments... many times a lot of ke kiang people give ke kiang comments which are so flawed and so baseless hahaha... find these comments quite amusing and entertaining....
What to do? Someone cannot see open. Why bother what others are commenting as long as they do not give negative comment on that stock.
pikachu ( Date: 01-Jul-2023 10:03) Posted:
|
So many arguments.. haha
Alamak.. another comment about ' weak holders' again.. 1 week ago, someone commented about weak holders... now you realised those so call ' weak holders' of last week were actually smart players hahaha. They had damn good foresights....
i really wonder how you came to conclusion they are weak holders...
piscesmonkey ( Date: 30-Jun-2023 10:04) Posted:
| Look like morning weak holder flushed out at 455? Now going recover back 50cents? |
|
Look like morning weak holder flushed out at 455? Now going recover back 50cents?
Statistics cannot be trusted since it is based on overall companies. Many of the companies do not really provide accurate survey
FrancisLim ( Date: 30-Jun-2023 09:53) Posted:
| --- Post Removed by User --- |
|
Yes, agree, those waiting to buy at low price and those who short
expected to fully support the CIMB report.
Those already in should keep cool and don' t be influenced into
selling by these people.
I am low on bullets at the moment but am trying to gather some
bullets to add more in the mid to low 40s in the next few days.
Just my opinion, please dyodd.
tccroy ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 17:22) Posted:
Only people waiting to buy low prices agreed with CIMB report.
bernardc ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 17:17) Posted:
| According to this report..
Analyst can jiak sai..
Kelong report..
CD coming.. Huart to al |
|
|
|
Not bad closing. Friday should be recover liao 👍
Only people waiting to buy low prices agreed with CIMB report.
bernardc ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 17:17) Posted:
According to this report..
Analyst can jiak sai..
Kelong report..
CD coming.. Huart to all
wehuattogether88 ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 16:16) Posted:
From another forum:
I believe by now most investors would have seen the "credible" CIMB report. I am here to calm long term investors by offering 5 counter points to the CFA certified analyst.
1) In the report, he mentioned China PMI is below 50 from Jan - May 2023. This is false. It was only below 50 (contractionary) in April and May. Did he get the figures from onion news?
2) In the report he mentioned that the 3 CODs of hydroplants are fully priced in, while giving a forward p/e 9. This clearly shows that he did not do his investigations properly. The p/e of indonesian hydro listco is in 25-35 range. Even discounting that, how could a p/e 9 be used for a recurring and defensive income from hydro? Proper calculations is required to separate earnings from hydro and earnings from core business, whilst giving each income their respective earnings. To me, that's lazy analytics from CIMB.
3) In the report he mentioned that he expected chinese pmi to worsen while cutting earnings in FY 23 - FY 25 by more than 40%. That would mean china will stop manufacturing for half the world in the next 3 years. Clearly that shows incompetency in understanding China. IMF raised chinese GDP from 4.4% to 5.2%, while World Bank raised chinese GDP from 4.3% to 5.6%.
4) Bloomberg statistics showed that if retail investors followed his calls exactly, they will receive a negative return of 40% in 2022. This is estimated as such: When he calls for add, and you add, you will lose money because share price went down. When he calls for hold, and you hold, you will lose money because share price went down. Now he calls for reduce, you know what to do to earn money? =)
5) The analyst from CIMB has been covering the company for a long time. I am surprised by his lack of understanding of the company's operations & business. It is evident in his analysis that he places no thoughts on doing proper financial modelling, simply putting figures in his outdated excel file, and having no idea how to value different income streams. I wonder where he gets his CFA.
Of course, the world is now in recession, and though China is not in a recession but projected GROWTH of 5% instead, it will be inevitable that external demand will be affected. Couple this together with semicon downturn, we have a gathering storm. However investors should look beyond cyclical industry and take comfort that the boss has the foresight to create another alpha growth engine in recessionary proof business - hydroplants. ISDN is an official sponsor and developer of hydroplants in indonesia, that itself creates a deep business moat. Once the world emerges from this recession, we will witness the phoenix rise again. But meanwhile, do understand that analysts (as all humans) will have self interests when publishing certain reports. He may counting the gains from his shorts. Who knows?
PS: Now you know why analyst is spelt as anal-yst. Don't believe everything they report. You may get a handful of his excrements. =) |
|
|
|
According to this report..
Analyst can jiak sai..
Kelong report..
CD coming.. Huart to all
wehuattogether88 ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 16:16) Posted:
From another forum:
I believe by now most investors would have seen the "credible" CIMB report. I am here to calm long term investors by offering 5 counter points to the CFA certified analyst.
1) In the report, he mentioned China PMI is below 50 from Jan - May 2023. This is false. It was only below 50 (contractionary) in April and May. Did he get the figures from onion news?
2) In the report he mentioned that the 3 CODs of hydroplants are fully priced in, while giving a forward p/e 9. This clearly shows that he did not do his investigations properly. The p/e of indonesian hydro listco is in 25-35 range. Even discounting that, how could a p/e 9 be used for a recurring and defensive income from hydro? Proper calculations is required to separate earnings from hydro and earnings from core business, whilst giving each income their respective earnings. To me, that's lazy analytics from CIMB.
3) In the report he mentioned that he expected chinese pmi to worsen while cutting earnings in FY 23 - FY 25 by more than 40%. That would mean china will stop manufacturing for half the world in the next 3 years. Clearly that shows incompetency in understanding China. IMF raised chinese GDP from 4.4% to 5.2%, while World Bank raised chinese GDP from 4.3% to 5.6%.
4) Bloomberg statistics showed that if retail investors followed his calls exactly, they will receive a negative return of 40% in 2022. This is estimated as such: When he calls for add, and you add, you will lose money because share price went down. When he calls for hold, and you hold, you will lose money because share price went down. Now he calls for reduce, you know what to do to earn money? =)
5) The analyst from CIMB has been covering the company for a long time. I am surprised by his lack of understanding of the company's operations & business. It is evident in his analysis that he places no thoughts on doing proper financial modelling, simply putting figures in his outdated excel file, and having no idea how to value different income streams. I wonder where he gets his CFA.
Of course, the world is now in recession, and though China is not in a recession but projected GROWTH of 5% instead, it will be inevitable that external demand will be affected. Couple this together with semicon downturn, we have a gathering storm. However investors should look beyond cyclical industry and take comfort that the boss has the foresight to create another alpha growth engine in recessionary proof business - hydroplants. ISDN is an official sponsor and developer of hydroplants in indonesia, that itself creates a deep business moat. Once the world emerges from this recession, we will witness the phoenix rise again. But meanwhile, do understand that analysts (as all humans) will have self interests when publishing certain reports. He may counting the gains from his shorts. Who knows?
PS: Now you know why analyst is spelt as anal-yst. Don't believe everything they report. You may get a handful of his excrements. =) |
|
