Halcyon Agri    Last:0.41   -

Hidden Gem

Yes, rigorous and robust constructive sharing of information is always welcome.
Put this in your WL.
No harm.
Have a nice weekend.

 

A robust discussion is good.

limjoeseph      ( Date: 29-Aug-2020 14:47) Posted: This is a shared forum. Hopefully no one feels offended by my sharing as I am coming from the buy and hold investment view point and not a short term trade. Anyway to each his very own!! Invest to suit your risk appetite!!

 

👍 👍 👍

limjoeseph      ( Date: 29-Aug-2020 14:47) Posted: This is a shared forum. Hopefully no one feels offended by my sharing as I am coming from the buy and hold investment view point and not a short term trade. Anyway to each his very own!! Invest to suit your risk appetite!!

 

This is a shared forum. Hopefully no one feels offended by my sharing as I am coming from the buy and hold investment view point and not a short term trade. Anyway to each his very own!! Invest to suit your risk appetite!!

 

Logic is simple: market reacted negatively and knee jerked from 35 to 25 after Rights announcement

Now Rights is cancelled and what do you think? No knee jerk reaction? Maybe not to 35, 30? 28? 26? 24?

Anyway, just watch.

I maybe wrong.

Huat R!

 

Bro, don?t think one can accurately predict Long term. Now the topic the forum is discussing the issuing of perpetual securities over rights issues announced on 6/28 that caused the share px to drop from 35 to 25 on that day. So in the short term with the proposed changes by issuing perpetual securities instead of rights, is this positive for the company. Bro, just for your digestion as follows: I just read the release closely that this is only a proposal to replace the right issue now it needs to find investors to buy in sinochem who will not put in 1 cent but only guarantees if Halcyon defaults their payment. Now at what cost can they raise this perpetual? And just like the proposed right issues what is the probability of success even with sinochem guarantee? Sinochem obviously does not want to put in any more money n hope others will buy into it .... at very high coupon rate ? Perpetual ? Do u want to lend to halcyon perpetually? The market cap is barely 350 mio sing or 255 mio usd . U can borrow the same amount of debt similar size to your market cap? Lastly track records have they been able to show profit performances over the last few years other than through asset revaluations like last year 52 mio Usd from supposedly converting from a rubber plantation to a timber processing plant ? 52 mio usd ? Let?s say the coupon is 5% which I doubt anyone will accept this for a company like this That is 10 mio usd a year of interest cost can they afford it n still show profit? Rubber industry people already knows as the asset revaluation is no open secret in rubber industry. Your banker may soon asking you to subscribe to perpetual meaning u never get it back. I think coupon will be closer to 10% if there is any taker. Why u don?t ask sinochem just put in more equity? At least there is no interest burden to pay when u try to re structure!! Pl take the above with a pinch of salt if you like as this is a shared forum which is not to strike fear into any mkt participants interested in this counter but do your own due deligence. I have done mine and I can never allow myself to be invested in this company as a buy and hold investor with a time frame of 6 to 12 months horizon as there are many other money making companies. NB: I do not subscribe to a short term type trade using speculative reasoning!!!

 

Early 🛎 bell 🔔 .
Put this in your WL.
My target is 0.30.
I am confident it will hit.
All the best.
Vested.

 

True. Your money, your own target!!!

 

Bro, don?t think one can accurately predict Long term. Now the topic the forum is discussing the issuing of perpetual securities over rights issues announced on 6/28 that caused the share px to drop from 35 to 25 on that day. So in the short term with the proposed changes by issuing perpetual securities instead of rights, is this positive for the company.

limjoeseph      ( Date: 29-Aug-2020 08:55) Posted: Halcyon lost US$40.1 after 2nd quarters financial results and the worst performance till date. MD resigned sometime second half June and he was the one who got Sinochem to acquire Halcyon in the past and he is holding about 55 millions shares together with one of his ex-colleague holding 11 million shares and mkt suspect they have been trying to liquidate their holdings as this counter has no liquidity. This is not a long term buy and hold. High debt on borrowings and extremely high overheads to run the company. International rubber dealers know their situation better than anyone else. Do your own due diligence and invest at your own risk.

 

Halcyon lost US$40.1 after 2nd quarters financial results and the worst performance till date. MD resigned sometime second half June and he was the one who got Sinochem to acquire Halcyon in the past and he is holding about 55 millions shares together with one of his ex-colleague holding 11 million shares and mkt suspect they have been trying to liquidate their holdings as this counter has no liquidity. This is not a long term buy and hold. High debt on borrowings and extremely high overheads to run the company. International rubber dealers know their situation better than anyone else. Do your own due diligence and invest at your own risk.

 

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/GSKFF84EA52FDLPI/ff60b49916e99c36118e8d97167336eb3135e391452a048767444f88924fe1b1

 

Like QT, I made the call when it was 0.8/0.9.
Now, I make the call for Halcyon.
My target is 0.30.
It has to go up NOW.
My POV

 

There are a few uncertainties as the terms of the perps are still being reviewed at this point. The obvious consideration would be the coupon on the perps and given the high gearing ratio, it is quite unlikely that the cost of debt will be cheap. As a reference, when the company announced the issuance of rights issue, one of the purposes was for the restructuring of the Fimave loan where it is a 10% interest-bearing loan from 6.5%. 

Depending on the eventual cost of debt from the $200m perps, will need to evaluate what the WACC of the company would be. TSR20 will need to sustain its uptrend for there to be sustained positive impact on HA' s financials through to 2HFY20.

Arguably good because without the rights, it would be non-dilutive but also because the cost of equity is expensive. Given where the share price of HA is currently, the rights, if issued, would be nil in value unless share price stays above water then it would have been sensible to pursue the rights exercise. With the share price trading at or near rights price of 22c, chances are most shareholders wouldn' t subscribe to the rights, if they can get it cheaper on the open market.

The single largest shareholder is cognisant that the company needs fresh capital to ensure sufficient liquidity through the company. Issuing it in the form of perps will limit the impact to gearing ratio, arguably financial engineering where this extra $200m will sit on the balance sheet. The key thing to watch out for would be the coupon for the perps - regardless, SIC is paying it back to themselves since they are single largest shareholder. So in the rationale, yes $200m > $125.4m but SIC will be receiving the coupon payments.

 

Does it mean Monday price will be back to 35 which is before announcement of rights on 6/22

Shifu8888      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 22:31) Posted: Good news. Rights issue is cancelled. Before rights was announced, the price was $0.35. The price tumbled immediately after rights issues. The price must go up. Target $0.35 and above and even $0.40 This one, I will promote. Go grab on Monday. I am serious.

 

ok thank you for sharing

Shifu8888      ( Date: 28-Aug-2020 22:31) Posted: Good news. Rights issue is cancelled. Before rights was announced, the price was $0.35. The price tumbled immediately after rights issues. The price must go up. Target $0.35 and above and even $0.40 This one, I will promote. Go grab on Monday. I am serious.

 

Good news.
Rights issue is cancelled.
Before rights was announced, the price was $0.35. The price tumbled immediately after rights issues.
The price must go up.
Target $0.35 and above and even $0.40

This one, I will promote.
Go grab on Monday.
I am serious.

 

Thank you for the heads up! 

Shifu8888      ( Date: 27-Aug-2020 09:58) Posted: I can almost assure it will be more than 30 cents once the economy turns up after vaccine is announced. But this is never gonna be straight line. Buy and hold. This will not kill. Don over stretch your means ghetto      ( Date: 27-Aug-2020 09:51) Posted: Shifu, thus px should be about 30 thereabout? Thank

 

I can almost assure it will be more than 30 cents once the economy turns up after vaccine is announced.
But this is never gonna be straight line.
Buy and hold. This will not kill. Don over stretch your means

ghetto      ( Date: 27-Aug-2020 09:51) Posted: Shifu, thus px should be about 30 thereabout? Thanks Shifu8888      ( Date: 27-Aug-2020 09:39) Posted: You have to hold. Wait for the rights

 

Shifu, thus px should be about 30 thereabout? Thanks

Shifu8888      ( Date: 27-Aug-2020 09:39) Posted: You have to hold. Wait for the rights francisd      ( Date: 27-Aug-2020 09:37) Posted: Watch out for sudden pullback...it has happenned couple of times in the last two months. Burned myself holding this counter. No vested anymore. Cheers.

 

You have to hold. Wait for the rights

francisd      ( Date: 27-Aug-2020 09:37) Posted: Watch out for sudden pullback...it has happenned couple of times in the last two months. Burned myself holding this counter. No vested anymore. Cheers.