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Frasers Logistic & Industrial Trust IPO

i meant FLT-post.

chengwh1      ( Date: 02-Dec-2019 13:27) Posted: Hmm,... I checked the DPU payout ilustrations for FLT (pg 12) and FCOT (pg 12) in the Presentation Slides for this merger + Acquisition. I noticed for FLT, the final dpu reached post-merger and post-asset acquisition  is 7.38c. But for FCOT, the final dpu reached post-merger and post-asset acquisition is a big 10c. Shouldn' t both of the final dpu' s reached be almost the same ?  Why is one at 7.38c and another at 10c ? I do understand this is proforma dpu based on workings against earlier audited results, but a 36% difference ? So,.. what is the actual dpu reached post-both events after end-March/Apr 2020 ? I think we need to calculate the nav post-both events, and we can predict final sp that may be reached from here. I' m not too sure abt FCOT, but I think it would be advantageous for FLT. Goldfinger      ( Date: 02-Dec-2019 10:35) Posted: I suspect FCOT flattish to slight rise since it has already spiked and close to takeover price, and FLT slight rise since it has not risen?

 

Do you mean to say for ' final-FLT' post- both events or for current FLT ? Current FLT' s P/B Ratio is higher than FCOT' s P/B Ratio.

subaru      ( Date: 02-Dec-2019 13:15) Posted: Not guaranteed that a lower P/B ratio of FLT will  attract greater institutional investor interest and justify a higher post merger unit price.  laksaman57      ( Date: 30-Nov-2019 21:32) Posted: FLT acquiring FCOT at lasted traded price of $1.67 which glaringly close to its NAV will definitely help normalised its present high price-to-nav valuation and attract greater institutional investor interest and justify a higher post merger unit price. It will be a WIN-WIN just like ESR/Viva merger.

 

Hmm,... I checked the DPU payout ilustrations for FLT (pg 12) and FCOT (pg 12) in the Presentation Slides for this merger + Acquisition. I noticed for FLT, the final dpu reached post-merger and post-asset acquisition  is 7.38c. But for FCOT, the final dpu reached post-merger and post-asset acquisition is a big 10c. Shouldn' t both of the final dpu' s reached be almost the same ? 

Why is one at 7.38c and another at 10c ? I do understand this is proforma dpu based on workings against earlier audited results, but a 36% difference ? So,.. what is the actual dpu reached post-both events after end-March/Apr 2020 ?

I think we need to calculate the nav post-both events, and we can predict final sp that may be reached from here. I' m not too sure abt FCOT, but I think it would be advantageous for FLT.

Goldfinger      ( Date: 02-Dec-2019 10:35) Posted: I suspect FCOT flattish to slight rise since it has already spiked and close to takeover price, and FLT slight rise since it has not risen? chengwh1      ( Date: 02-Dec-2019 10:15) Posted: Any opportunities for price deliberation that you guys can think of ?

 

Not guaranteed that a lower P/B ratio of FLT will  attract greater institutional investor
interest and justify a higher post merger unit price. 

laksaman57      ( Date: 30-Nov-2019 21:32) Posted: FLT acquiring FCOT at lasted traded price of $1.67 which glaringly close to its NAV will definitely help normalised its present high price-to-nav valuation and attract greater institutional investor interest and justify a higher post merger unit price. It will be a WIN-WIN just like ESR/Viva merger.    machop      ( Date: 30-Nov-2019 17:03) Posted: What reason do u think will make FLT unitholders accept the merger? DPU accretion probably low single digits, which can be achieved by acquiring the sponsors assets in europe and australia.  Seems more positive for FCOT than FLT.

 

the formula FCOT=$0.151 + 1.233 FLT gives the closing price of FCOT. Indeed, based on the closing price of FLT,
FCOT=$0.151 + 1.233 FLT = 0.151+1.233 (1.24) =1.67992 (approx equal to 1.67, closing price of FCOT)

chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 13:32) Posted: Looks like only we, FLT unitholders are discussing here. I posted my first input below over at the FCOM thread too,... no input yet till now,...

 

I suspect FCOT flattish to slight rise since it has already spiked and close to takeover price, and FLT slight rise since it has not risen?

chengwh1      ( Date: 02-Dec-2019 10:15) Posted: Any opportunities for price deliberation that you guys can think of ?

 

Any opportunities for price deliberation that you guys can think of ?

 

Tq Lynn,.. last weekend, I said this : This ' translation' can be settled in the form of, say 90% units and 10% cash consideration.

Whatever formula the mgmt may use to churn out the final reimbursement for the acquired REIT (in this case, FCOT), I kept thinking it would be fair for them to pay up to 10% in cash consideration. Looks like I was wrong,.. hehe,.. with the ann' t this morning, they paid 9% in cash consideration and 91% in shares replacement.

If FCOT unitholders can accept this, it' s good to go. Not having too many new units added will not push the dpu down too much post-merger.

lynn89      ( Date: 02-Dec-2019 08:30) Posted: FCOT = $0.151 + 1.233 FLT

 

Morning bros Laksaman and Goldfinger, good discussions over the weekend,...

For myself, the announced ratio this morning is good.  A slightly higher FCOT unit price has been used as reference for the conversion price compared to the last closing price of FCOT prior to the trading halt. 

With this formula, the new price for the ' new' FLT post-merger is assumed to be $1.24.




 

chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:10) Posted: Hmm,...in your workings below, you were using ONLY the respective closing prices for FLT and FCOT to compute your ratio to be given to FCOT. My opinion is we should use both navs, and then extrapolate this against the closing price of the acquirer. No problem if FCOT unitholders are okay with your formula. I' m okay too,... the FCOT unitholders should decide for themselves what is the right formula. I' m not an FCOT unitholder. I' m holding FLIT now at $0.99 per unit. laksaman57      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 15:54) Posted: My guess ... with closing price FLT $1.24/FCOT $1.67 ...each FCOT share possibly gets Case 1 - $0.0000 + 1.347 FLT Case 2 - $0.0835 + 1.280 FLT Case 3 - $0.1670 + 1.212 FLT Case 4 - $0.2505 + 1.145 FLT Each case will result in  lower price-to-nav ratio.

 

FCOT = $0.151 + 1.233 FLT

 

Not bad - quite predictive. News is out. FLT buying FCOT with some cash back for FCOT. FLT should rise.

laksaman57      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:51) Posted: Well FLT may offer FCOT unitholder a slight premium to their last traded price,$1.67 to bring their  P/NAV,1.037 closer to FLT, 1.305. chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:36) Posted: My formulae are based on some merging activities I have seen in some countries for which I hold the shares in, including SG. Not too sure of which of the recent mergers may have used my formulae, ESR-Viva, ART-AHT, etc,... But,.. well,.. I' m quite sure we shuold take into account the respective nav' s too

 

It' s a broad spectrum of unitholder background and knowledge. Not easy to crunch numbers and make sense of it. Hope the reit managers will be patience in putting forth their case for merger
in easy to understand benefit to the unitholder.

chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 22:48) Posted: That' s why we erected all these calculation models to gauge the best and fairest deals for unitholders,..  on both sides of the fence, including ourselves. If unitholders read our postings put up this weekend, it will be helpful to them for deliberation with the mgrs in the coming egms. There is no other better method to ' argue' than with proper calculation methdologies. laksaman57      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 20:01) Posted: It'll definitely be queried at both reit egm prior to final egm to vote.

 

If they can clearly demonstrate that DPU for the enlarged, merged entity will significantly increase from the current state due to lower borrowing costs, economies of scale, streamlined regulatory compliance costs - there may be a case to support the merger, especially if there are some sweeteners for cash-back thrown in.

 

That' s why we erected all these calculation models to gauge the best and fairest deals for unitholders,..  on both sides of the fence, including ourselves.

If unitholders read our postings put up this weekend, it will be helpful to them for deliberation with the mgrs in the coming egms. There is no other better method to ' argue' than with proper calculation methdologies.

laksaman57      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 20:01) Posted: It'll definitely be queried at both reit egm prior to final egm to vote. chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:39) Posted: One more thing,.. the mgrs do not need to reveal their formula to unitholders unless unitholders start querying why is their ratio not reasonable

 

Don't seem a GD thing to merge! Fcot dpu may not sustain plus FLT aud against sgd is seeing dpu keep dropping.. looks like dpu under heavy pressure!!

laksaman57      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 20:01) Posted: It'll definitely be queried at both reit egm prior to final egm to vote. chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:39) Posted: One more thing,.. the mgrs do not need to reveal their formula to unitholders unless unitholders start querying why is their ratio not reasonable

 

It'll definitely be queried at both reit egm prior to final egm to vote.

chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:39) Posted: One more thing,.. the mgrs do not need to reveal their formula to unitholders unless unitholders start querying why is their ratio not reasonable. chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:36) Posted: My formulae are based on some merging activities I have seen in some countries for which I hold the shares in, including SG. Not too sure of which of the recent mergers may have used my formulae, ESR-Viva, ART-AHT, etc,... But,.. well,.. I' m quite sure we shuold take into account the respective nav' s too

 

Well FLT may offer FCOT unitholder a slight premium to their last traded price,$1.67 to bring their 
P/NAV,1.037 closer to FLT, 1.305.

chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:36) Posted: My formulae are based on some merging activities I have seen in some countries for which I hold the shares in, including SG. Not too sure of which of the recent mergers may have used my formulae, ESR-Viva, ART-AHT, etc,... But,.. well,.. I' m quite sure we shuold take into account the respective nav' s too. laksaman57      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:27) Posted: If i remember correctly, that' s what we did at ESR-Viva merge

 

One more thing,.. the mgrs do not need to reveal their formula to unitholders unless unitholders start querying why is their ratio not reasonable.

chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:36) Posted: My formulae are based on some merging activities I have seen in some countries for which I hold the shares in, including SG. Not too sure of which of the recent mergers may have used my formulae, ESR-Viva, ART-AHT, etc,... But,.. well,.. I' m quite sure we shuold take into account the respective nav' s too. laksaman57      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:27) Posted: If i remember correctly, that' s what we did at ESR-Viva merge

 

It will be great for FCOT unitholder bcos after merger, the theoretical post merger price-to-nav will
be much lower than what FLT now command and the new unit price may rise to maybe the
30% premium that FLT now command. All HUAT BIG BIG !

chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:10) Posted: Hmm,...in your workings below, you were using ONLY the respective closing prices for FLT and FCOT to compute your ratio to be given to FCOT. My opinion is we should use both navs, and then extrapolate this against the closing price of the acquirer. No problem if FCOT unitholders are okay with your formula. I' m okay too,... the FCOT unitholders should decide for themselves what is the right formula. I' m not an FCOT unitholder. I' m holding FLIT now at $0.99 per unit. laksaman57      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 15:54) Posted: My guess ... with closing price FLT $1.24/FCOT $1.67 ...each FCOT share possibly gets Case 1 - $0.0000 + 1.347 FLT Case 2 - $0.0835 + 1.280 FLT Case 3 - $0.1670 + 1.212 FLT Case 4 - $0.2505 + 1.145 FLT Each case will result in  lower price-to-nav ratio.

 

My formulae are based on some merging activities I have seen in some countries for which I hold the shares in, including SG. Not too sure of which of the recent mergers may have used my formulae, ESR-Viva, ART-AHT, etc,... But,.. well,.. I' m quite sure we shuold take into account the respective nav' s too.

laksaman57      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:27) Posted: If i remember correctly, that' s what we did at ESR-Viva merger chengwh1      ( Date: 01-Dec-2019 19:10) Posted: Hmm,...in your workings below, you were using ONLY the respective closing prices for FLT and FCOT to compute your ratio to be given to FCOT. My opinion is we should use both navs, and then extrapolate this against the closing price of the acquirer. No problem if FCOT unitholders are okay with your formula. I' m okay too,... the FCOT unitholders should decide for themselves what is the right formula. I' m not an FCOT unitholder. I' m holding FLIT now at $0.99 per unit