Valuetronics    Last:1.1   -

Biz Times june 26..Valuetronics to expand

waiting to buy back at 32cts ..last sold 52-54cts ex divNow with lost of major customer-Philip their consumer biz will be badly hit buy below 25cts seems a right move..overall Valuetronics a good co with no debt NAV about HK $1.20 high dividend yield grouphug: lucky to sell all after ex dividend at 52cts..selling a bit overdone as the potential loss of Dutch/Philip business was announced on Sep 23 now then market reacts so badly..may not go below 30cts..brave hearts can go in but I rather WAIT

vicloo      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 16:12) Posted: I think the market in panic mode now

 

I think the market in panic mode now

 

That' s because to value at 4+ times PE agatinst 7+ times PE (industry 9+ times PE).  Their justification for reducing the PE cos the LED issue is not over yet and there' s uncertainty.  They can say what they like cos they are not answerable to anyone.  Strange thing is why is everyone apparently so convinced by their TP, based on such low PE (not too convincing too, I' d think) that all are rushing for the exit?  Also, before a report of such demning magnitude is issued, I assumed they' d have engaged the coy first.

nqing87      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 16:02) Posted: i saw the KE report, they forecast the 2015 revenue to be HKD 2496mil, 2016 to be HKD 2491mil, 2017 to be HKD 2511mil.. 2014 revenue is HKD 2433mil.. core net profit estimate 2015 to be 134.6mil, 2016 to be 128mil, 2017 to be 139.8mil.. compare with 2014 core profit 147.9mil.. so 147.9mil to 134.6mil is about 9% drop in profit as per their forecast.. but they put at TP of 25 cents base on last price 40cents in their report, which is 38% reduction.. i dont get it.. lol.. if they forecast profit to drop by 9% from 2014 to 2015, why their TP reduce 38%??

 

lao sai until blur

 

 

Don't panic. Don't buy and don't sell. Margin call.

 

Would good earning still come in next quarter? If it is the stock will surely rebound sharply

6685ww      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 15:57) Posted: cheap LED product from China is already there for years, not just happened like yesterday. what i read from teh report, it seems that the whole LED segment is going to collapse and KE valued it at 0x p/e, is it really that bad, is that really so worthless segment?   from a coy point of view, you are not going to change your supplier like within a day or two, there will be some indiciaton at least when youa re going to change your supplier. u wont change it just after long day meeting and the board concludes that there is a need of such changes.   from all the recent repots from brokers, it seems that valuetronic is relatively performing well in the sectors, some of the brokers do recommend a 60cents tp, but within a monht, it like roller coaster dropped from 50+c to today 33c... there is a very big gap between from what the markewt expect and what it is actually happened now... can the mgt or the company explain all this pleasE?     Qanghoo      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 15:49) Posted: Agree wholeheartedly.  It is very important for listed stocks to engage their investors who are their stakeholders.  Wonder if SGX cld do something to make this happpen.  Also, wonder what the analyst who gave the apparently over-opportunistic report abt the company only a few months ago would have to say now.  Don' t think this LED thing is a fresh development.  It would have been  brewing months back already.  Furthermore, if that analyst had been over-zealous/was inaccurate  with the TP, the company also had a duty to clarify, wldn' t it?  Another thought - why is it that when a recommendation is issued for some stocks, the reaction in the share price is instantaneous whereas for others, the price remains numb for some even worse - gostan).

 

i saw the KE report, they forecast the 2015 revenue to be HKD 2496mil, 2016 to be HKD 2491mil, 2017 to be HKD 2511mil.. 2014 revenue is HKD 2433mil.. core net profit estimate 2015 to be 134.6mil, 2016 to be 128mil, 2017 to be 139.8mil.. compare with 2014 core profit 147.9mil.. so 147.9mil to 134.6mil is about 9% drop in profit as per their forecast.. but they put at TP of 25 cents base on last price 40cents in their report, which is 38% reduction.. i dont get it.. lol.. if they forecast profit to drop by 9% from 2014 to 2015, why their TP reduce 38%??

 

Up and down...most of the time is bb playing with the stories...from a 20c share pump up to 50over cents.with good outlook story...and dump from 50c to 30c....with another poor outlook story...pump and dump...

6685ww      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 15:57) Posted: cheap LED product from China is already there for years, not just happened like yesterday. what i read from teh report, it seems that the whole LED segment is going to collapse and KE valued it at 0x p/e, is it really that bad, is that really so worthless segment?   from a coy point of view, you are not going to change your supplier like within a day or two, there will be some indiciaton at least when youa re going to change your supplier. u wont change it just after long day meeting and the board concludes that there is a need of such changes.   from all the recent repots from brokers, it seems that valuetronic is relatively performing well in the sectors, some of the brokers do recommend a 60cents tp, but within a monht, it like roller coaster dropped from 50+c to today 33c... there is a very big gap between from what the markewt expect and what it is actually happened now... can the mgt or the company explain all this pleasE?     Qanghoo      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 15:49) Posted: Agree wholeheartedly.  It is very important for listed stocks to engage their investors who are their stakeholders.  Wonder if SGX cld do something to make this happpen.  Also, wonder what the analyst who gave the apparently over-opportunistic report abt the company only a few months ago would have to say now.  Don' t think this LED thing is a fresh development.  It would have been  brewing months back already.  Furthermore, if that analyst had been over-zealous/was inaccurate  with the TP, the company also had a duty to clarify, wldn' t it?  Another thought - why is it that when a recommendation is issued for some stocks, the reaction in the share price is instantaneous whereas for others, the price remains numb for some even worse - gostan).

 

cheap LED product from China is already there for years, not just happened like yesterday. what i read from teh report, it seems that the whole LED segment is going to collapse and KE valued it at 0x p/e, is it really that bad, is that really so worthless segment?

 

from a coy point of view, you are not going to change your supplier like within a day or two, there will be some indiciaton at least when youa re going to change your supplier. u wont change it just after long day meeting and the board concludes that there is a need of such changes.

 

from all the recent repots from brokers, it seems that valuetronic is relatively performing well in the sectors, some of the brokers do recommend a 60cents tp, but within a monht, it like roller coaster dropped from 50+c to today 33c... there is a very big gap between from what the markewt expect and what it is actually happened now... can the mgt or the company explain all this pleasE?

 

 

Qanghoo      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 15:49) Posted: Agree wholeheartedly.  It is very important for listed stocks to engage their investors who are their stakeholders.  Wonder if SGX cld do something to make this happpen.  Also, wonder what the analyst who gave the apparently over-opportunistic report abt the company only a few months ago would have to say now.  Don' t think this LED thing is a fresh development.  It would have been  brewing months back already.  Furthermore, if that analyst had been over-zealous/was inaccurate  with the TP, the company also had a duty to clarify, wldn' t it?  Another thought - why is it that when a recommendation is issued for some stocks, the reaction in the share price is instantaneous whereas for others, the price remains numb for some even worse - gostan).    edwinjup      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 15:36) Posted: Think mgt should come out and say something.....

 

Agree wholeheartedly.  It is very important for listed stocks to engage their investors who are their stakeholders.  Wonder if SGX cld do something to make this happpen.  Also, wonder what the analyst who gave the apparently over-opportunistic report abt the company only a few months ago would have to say now.  Don' t think this LED thing is a fresh development.  It would have been  brewing months back already.  Furthermore, if that analyst had been over-zealous/was inaccurate  with the TP, the company also had a duty to clarify, wldn' t it?  Another thought - why is it that when a recommendation is issued for some stocks, the reaction in the share price is instantaneous whereas for others, the price remains numb for some even worse - gostan).   

edwinjup      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 15:36) Posted: Think mgt should come out and say something..... pwnthis      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 15:04) Posted: i think it' s mainly due to this report as well that caused the drop.  http://m.sbr.com.sg/retail/more-news/losing-light-valuetronics-downward-spiral-dutch-customer-leaves Losing the light: Valuetronics on a downward spiral as Dutch customer leaves And cheaper Chinese products are making the market more competitive. Valuetronics faces an uncertain future as its largest customer &ndash a Dutch lighting, consumer electronics and healthcare conglomerate - has decided to split its lighting business from the rest of its businesses, in order to focus on higher-margin, less-challenging segments. Lighting, in particular LED lighting, accounts for 40% of Valuetronics&rsquo s revenue and 30% of its gross profit. A report by Maybank Kim Eng adds that premium LED lighting brands are being undercut by cheaper Chinese products. Valuetronics&rsquo s customer has had to cut its prices as it repositions its brand in the consumer mass market. Valuetronics&rsquo s margins in 1QFY15E were affected by the price cuts. Despite its customer&rsquo s split, the worst still lies ahead, in our view. We expect Valuetronics&rsquo s profits to decline in the next two years. With the slump in lighting, Valuetronics&rsquo s Industrial business will have to shoulder the burden of growth. However, we do not think Industrial&rsquo s growth will be enough to offset the decline in the lighting-heavy Consumer Electronics division. Some 60% of Valuetronics&rsquo s revenue comes from lighting products for its Dutch customer. - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/retail/more-news/losing-light-valuetronics-downward-spiral-dutch-customer-leaves#sthash.e1Eh9wcW.dpuf

 

Note that Valuetronics came from about 23cts in beginning 2014 and moved to a peak of 53cts in Aug .I hve attended all the EGM/AGM since ipo days and held since ipo and even bought 33cts and held since 2007 when in that year it hit a peak of 38cts ..actually I bought 33ct 138 lots and sold off at 38cts that' s why I can recalled vividly and made > than $6000 but when it dropped to 0.28 I bought again and when it hit 33cts I wanted to sell but was held by co' s meeting and from 2007 till in august 2014 I finally exited at 52cts after xd....at the AGM and of courese during Lehman bro crisis I bought more Valuetronics from 12-18cts and held and sold along the way from 38-45cts too At AGM/EGM i always queried why the directors are milking the co by giving away 10 year share options from 15-20cts which I did not like though I like its dividend policy...recenly u see all the exercising by employees and directors and hence not a good sign...of course easier to say on hindsight..BTW this thread was started by me too..

 

Think mgt should come out and say something.....

pwnthis      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 15:04) Posted: i think it' s mainly due to this report as well that caused the drop.  http://m.sbr.com.sg/retail/more-news/losing-light-valuetronics-downward-spiral-dutch-customer-leaves Losing the light: Valuetronics on a downward spiral as Dutch customer leaves And cheaper Chinese products are making the market more competitive. Valuetronics faces an uncertain future as its largest customer &ndash a Dutch lighting, consumer electronics and healthcare conglomerate - has decided to split its lighting business from the rest of its businesses, in order to focus on higher-margin, less-challenging segments. Lighting, in particular LED lighting, accounts for 40% of Valuetronics&rsquo s revenue and 30% of its gross profit. A report by Maybank Kim Eng adds that premium LED lighting brands are being undercut by cheaper Chinese products. Valuetronics&rsquo s customer has had to cut its prices as it repositions its brand in the consumer mass market. Valuetronics&rsquo s margins in 1QFY15E were affected by the price cuts. Despite its customer&rsquo s split, the worst still lies ahead, in our view. We expect Valuetronics&rsquo s profits to decline in the next two years. With the slump in lighting, Valuetronics&rsquo s Industrial business will have to shoulder the burden of growth. However, we do not think Industrial&rsquo s growth will be enough to offset the decline in the lighting-heavy Consumer Electronics division. Some 60% of Valuetronics&rsquo s revenue comes from lighting products for its Dutch customer. - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/retail/more-news/losing-light-valuetronics-downward-spiral-dutch-customer-leaves#sthash.e1Eh9wcW.dpuf

 

Wait until dropped lower then buy to average down and pray that it will go up.
Good luck.

 

massive drop, now traded at 33cents. i entered around 50 cents.... any idea should i hold or should let it go?

 

 

 

i think it' s mainly due to this report as well that caused the drop. 

http://m.sbr.com.sg/retail/more-news/losing-light-valuetronics-downward-spiral-dutch-customer-leaves

Losing the light: Valuetronics on a downward spiral as Dutch customer leaves

And cheaper Chinese products are making the market more competitive.

Valuetronics faces an uncertain future as its largest customer &ndash a Dutch lighting, consumer electronics and healthcare conglomerate - has decided to split its lighting business from the rest of its businesses, in order to focus on higher-margin, less-challenging segments. Lighting, in particular LED lighting, accounts for 40% of Valuetronics&rsquo s revenue and 30% of its gross profit.

A report by Maybank Kim Eng adds that premium LED lighting brands are being undercut by cheaper Chinese products. Valuetronics&rsquo s customer has had to cut its prices as it repositions its brand in the consumer mass market. Valuetronics&rsquo s margins in 1QFY15E were affected by the price cuts. Despite its customer&rsquo s split, the worst still lies ahead, in our view. We expect Valuetronics&rsquo s profits to decline in the next two years.

With the slump in lighting, Valuetronics&rsquo s Industrial business will have to shoulder the burden of growth. However, we do not think Industrial&rsquo s growth will be enough to offset the decline in the lighting-heavy Consumer Electronics division. Some 60% of Valuetronics&rsquo s revenue comes from lighting products for its Dutch customer.

- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/retail/more-news/losing-light-valuetronics-downward-spiral-dutch-customer-leaves#sthash.e1Eh9wcW.dpuf

 

Ke calls always powerful........

vicloo      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 14:03) Posted: This damned report is causing such a big deal... man!!! edwinjup      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 13:45) Posted: Think can get the.full report.from.singapore.stock.market news websites.....confirmed..ke.called.25c ....ke called always very powerful......but 25c slightly low...

 

This damned report is causing such a big deal... man!!!

edwinjup      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 13:45) Posted: Think can get the.full report.from.singapore.stock.market news websites.....confirmed..ke.called.25c ....ke called always very powerful......but 25c slightly low.... edwinjup      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 13:07) Posted: Heard ke called for a sell..tp 25c...anyone can confirm this news.....thank

 

Think can get the.full report.from.singapore.stock.market news websites.....confirmed..ke.called.25c ....ke called always very powerful......but 25c slightly low....

edwinjup      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 13:07) Posted: Heard ke called for a sell..tp 25c...anyone can confirm this news.....thanks Roxy1968      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 12:57) Posted: True...today it folowed the poor sentiments with no reason.

 

As long as company continue to provide good dividend n good profit. Can hold

edwinjup      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 13:07) Posted: Heard ke called for a sell..tp 25c...anyone can confirm this news.....thanks Roxy1968      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 12:57) Posted: True...today it folowed the poor sentiments with no reason.

 

it was about 20+ cents before its run-up.. it went up after buy call from analyst, and got the attention of retailers & BB to play (which could be the analyst themselves).. good fundamentals or not, end of the day we have to see BB face lol.. probably BB moving out already..

pylsce      ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 13:10) Posted: Its crazy. straight down from 59c all the way down to 34c when company is making money, debt free and high div yield. What is wrong, eh?