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If Russia/Ukraine war continues n CPO price stays above 6,000MYR/T, 35c for Golden Agri can easily achieve.
CheeryVGoh ( Date: 02-Mar-2022 12:28) Posted:
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Hope she goes beyond $0.35....
With the share buy back & the record high CPO price, think it is possible to go higher.
Vested.
With the share buy back & the record high CPO price, think it is possible to go higher.
Vested.
Catrade ( Date: 01-Mar-2022 15:13) Posted:
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CPO Prices
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CPO (Crude Palm Oil ) at MYR7019 yty.
Ftyeng ( Date: 02-Mar-2022 11:18) Posted:
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For a moment it hit $0.305 too.
Huat ah, got some bullish steam right now.
Huat ah, got some bullish steam right now.
Ftyeng ( Date: 02-Mar-2022 09:12) Posted:
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Golden Agri-Resources
Liquid proxy to rising CPO price
Final results and dividends were above expectation
Consensus ratings*:
Buy 3
Hold 2
Sell 1
Current price: S$0.29
Target price:
S$0.335
Previous target: S$0.28
Up/downside: 15.4%
CGS-CIMB / Consensus: -5.8%
■ GGR&rsquo s FY21 core net profit was above our expectations on better-than- expected CPO price and higher downstream profit.
■ Upgrade to Add rating with a higher SOP-based TP of S$0.34 as we see potential trading opportunities in the stock as a proxy to rising CPO price.
■ Every US$100/tonne change in CPO price achieved (net of export taxes and levy) could lift earnings by US$112m.
Reuters: GAGR.SI
Bloomberg: GGR SP
Market cap: US$2,712m
S$3,681m
Average daily turnover: US$2.54m
S$3.44m
Current shares o/s: 12,838m
Free float: 32.3%
*Source: Bloomberg
Golden Agri-Resources&rsquo (GGR) posted an FY21 core net profit of US$489m, which is 22% and 18% ahead of our and consensus&rsquo full-year forecasts. The better-than-expected earnings were due mainly to stronger-than-expected CPO price and profit margin achieved by its downstream division. The group declared a final dividend of S$0.01077 per share, bringing total dividend for the year to S$0.01605 &mdash above expectation. The dividend payment translates into a 25% dividend payout from its underlying profit and a dividend yield of 3.7%. The group&rsquo s core net profit is US$13.4m higher vs. its reported as we stripped off the deferred tax expense of US$48m and forex gain of US$34m.
All key business segments posted stronger earnings
The plantation and mill segment posted an 87% yoy improvement in EBITDA to US$779m in FY21, driven mainly by higher net CPO prices (+54% yoy to US$1,100/tonne). FFB output from nucleus estates grew 3% yoy to 7.5m tonnes in FY21, but this was partially offset by marginally higher costs of production for CPO of US$300 per tonne. The group&rsquo s palm and lauric division recorded a 70% rise in EBITDA to RM435m as this division posted a higher EBITDA margin of 4.3% in FY21 (vs. 3.6% in FY20) due to its strategy of producing more value-added products.
Upgrade to Add with a higher TP of S$0.34
For FY22F, GGR guided for a 5% FFB output growth and flattish cost of production. It stays positive on CPO price prospects as it expects the tight vegetable oil situation to persist due to production challenges (labour issues in Malaysia, under-fertilised smallholder plantations, and dry weather conditions in South America). We lift our FY22- 23F EPS forecasts to reflect our recently revised higher CPO price assumptions and higher margin for its downstream business. The projected 11% yoy decline in FY22F core net profit is due to expectations of lower downstream profit. We raise our TP to S$0.34 due to higher valuations accorded to its downstream business following our earnings upgrade. We continue to base our TP at a 10% discount to SOP. We upgrade GGR from Hold to Add on a potential trading angle as a proxy to rising CPO prices, due to concerns over shortages in the global edible oils market from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Current domestic CPO price in Indonesia of US$1,185/tonne is higher than our average CPO price assumption of US$827/tonne. We estimate every US$100/tonne change in CPO price assumption (net of taxes) will raise our net profit forecast by US$112m. Share price is supported by a dividend yield of 3% and EV/ha of US$12.2k per ha.
Liquid proxy to rising CPO price
Final results and dividends were above expectation
Consensus ratings*:
Buy 3
Hold 2
Sell 1
Current price: S$0.29
Target price:
S$0.335
Previous target: S$0.28
Up/downside: 15.4%
CGS-CIMB / Consensus: -5.8%
■ GGR&rsquo s FY21 core net profit was above our expectations on better-than- expected CPO price and higher downstream profit.
■ Upgrade to Add rating with a higher SOP-based TP of S$0.34 as we see potential trading opportunities in the stock as a proxy to rising CPO price.
■ Every US$100/tonne change in CPO price achieved (net of export taxes and levy) could lift earnings by US$112m.
Reuters: GAGR.SI
Bloomberg: GGR SP
Market cap: US$2,712m
S$3,681m
Average daily turnover: US$2.54m
S$3.44m
Current shares o/s: 12,838m
Free float: 32.3%
*Source: Bloomberg
Golden Agri-Resources&rsquo (GGR) posted an FY21 core net profit of US$489m, which is 22% and 18% ahead of our and consensus&rsquo full-year forecasts. The better-than-expected earnings were due mainly to stronger-than-expected CPO price and profit margin achieved by its downstream division. The group declared a final dividend of S$0.01077 per share, bringing total dividend for the year to S$0.01605 &mdash above expectation. The dividend payment translates into a 25% dividend payout from its underlying profit and a dividend yield of 3.7%. The group&rsquo s core net profit is US$13.4m higher vs. its reported as we stripped off the deferred tax expense of US$48m and forex gain of US$34m.
All key business segments posted stronger earnings
The plantation and mill segment posted an 87% yoy improvement in EBITDA to US$779m in FY21, driven mainly by higher net CPO prices (+54% yoy to US$1,100/tonne). FFB output from nucleus estates grew 3% yoy to 7.5m tonnes in FY21, but this was partially offset by marginally higher costs of production for CPO of US$300 per tonne. The group&rsquo s palm and lauric division recorded a 70% rise in EBITDA to RM435m as this division posted a higher EBITDA margin of 4.3% in FY21 (vs. 3.6% in FY20) due to its strategy of producing more value-added products.
Upgrade to Add with a higher TP of S$0.34
For FY22F, GGR guided for a 5% FFB output growth and flattish cost of production. It stays positive on CPO price prospects as it expects the tight vegetable oil situation to persist due to production challenges (labour issues in Malaysia, under-fertilised smallholder plantations, and dry weather conditions in South America). We lift our FY22- 23F EPS forecasts to reflect our recently revised higher CPO price assumptions and higher margin for its downstream business. The projected 11% yoy decline in FY22F core net profit is due to expectations of lower downstream profit. We raise our TP to S$0.34 due to higher valuations accorded to its downstream business following our earnings upgrade. We continue to base our TP at a 10% discount to SOP. We upgrade GGR from Hold to Add on a potential trading angle as a proxy to rising CPO prices, due to concerns over shortages in the global edible oils market from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Current domestic CPO price in Indonesia of US$1,185/tonne is higher than our average CPO price assumption of US$827/tonne. We estimate every US$100/tonne change in CPO price assumption (net of taxes) will raise our net profit forecast by US$112m. Share price is supported by a dividend yield of 3% and EV/ha of US$12.2k per ha.
Finally broke the $0.295 resistance level and hit $0.30 around 910am on 02 March 2022.
New year high......
New year high......
trader1970 ( Date: 01-Mar-2022 12:06) Posted:
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Today Palm oil future continues to break another multi yr record price in 25 yrs (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil)!!
With the release of vG set of result n dividend, couple with a US$100m(S$135.5m) share buy-back, very soon Golden Agri will rocket pass n through 30c to its former glory!
with a " War-Chest" of US$100m(S$135.5m), let see how many Golden Agri shares the company can buy-back at 30c/p ?
(13 5 x 1,000,000) divide 0.30 = 451.7m shares
This is a v huge amount of share buy-back that will form the base-line and support the price forwards....Here is what Mr Franky O. Widjaja, GAR Chairman and Chief Executive Officer said :
GAR will also initiate a share buyback programme to further reward our shareholders,
allocating up to US$100 million for year 2022........
With the release of vG set of result n dividend, couple with a US$100m(S$135.5m) share buy-back, very soon Golden Agri will rocket pass n through 30c to its former glory!
with a " War-Chest" of US$100m(S$135.5m), let see how many Golden Agri shares the company can buy-back at 30c/p ?
(13 5 x 1,000,000) divide 0.30 = 451.7m shares
This is a v huge amount of share buy-back that will form the base-line and support the price forwards....Here is what Mr Franky O. Widjaja, GAR Chairman and Chief Executive Officer said :
GAR will also initiate a share buyback programme to further reward our shareholders,
allocating up to US$100 million for year 2022........
If more than 3 times it cant break thru 29.5 and 30, for ST play, better watch out.. Is either BB rolling over or getting out... Dont be too greedy..
Looks like BB be tearing the 52 week high wall dwn soon.. :)
Wow.....! A record year in performance for 2021, proposed final dividend of 1.077 cents and a share buyback programme of USD 100 million in 2022.
Golden Agri-Resources H2 profit up 71.2% to US$323m
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/golden-agri-resources-h2-profit-up-712-to-us323mChk Sgx Co Announcement :
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/JJ05IOHLOV95WMIC/216044d0a1c489d8b5a6d43a587ee944c17acbb6c2687c27702f2ba897939b91
Good result expected.
trader1970 ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 17:12) Posted:
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Agreed and noted bro :)
Married deal after mkt of 4,375,000
Married deal after mkt of 4,375,000
Catrade ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 15:41) Posted:
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In trading Commodity stock fundament & economics, like supply & demand r very crucial. The crude palm oil future index normally helps to determine its movement, but as I said our SGX retail pool is v small n weak, often BBs can easily manipulate its real value. However if we believe in this super palm oil cycle(breaking multi year high month after month) plus the war in Ukraine/Russia, vested with patience will be rewarded (just like REX INTL 3 months ago before it price rocketed). Its just my humble little wisdom ...and please do ur due diligence!
trader1970 ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 14:50) Posted:
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Goldman Sachs in the mkt for Golden Agri now.
Technically, it looks like a reverse head & shoulder chart formation with neckline at 30c
& price objective of 15c up. Dyodd.
Technically, it looks like a reverse head & shoulder chart formation with neckline at 30c
& price objective of 15c up. Dyodd.
Since Bumitama Agri results over the weekend is astounding, what do your reckon of GAR?... :):) ie why BB is accumulating and ready to pump past the 52 week high to new HIGH....
Catrade ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 13:53) Posted:
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Looking at Palm oil future from Trading Economic, Its fundamental n demand r v strong. Breaking 30c is coming ....
Yes, thick wall will need time to break.. Be patient.. It will be broken down...:)
PingPongBall ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 10:31) Posted:
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A huge thick wall at 0.295 though.
trader1970 ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 09:37) Posted:
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