Post Reply
321-340 of 1253
It seems to be back to moving in tandem with GAR.
Ones who have the guts to buy now will be the winners later.
Panic selling in the morning. Then after that, very few people were willing to sell 0.205 which was a good sign. But I noticed one guy kept selling small number of shares like 100 or 200 shares to make it look bad. I wonder whether that guy was a hater of the Salim family and wanted to create fear to bring their shares to zero. I am not surprised if that was really the case. It is normal in such business environment.
Management came out to buy?
I believe this will happen Tuesday or Wednesday
AhLiang ( Date: 22-Mar-2019 14:51) Posted:
|
Reasons why I think why this counter is on the uptrend : We know by now where the bottom is and THAT IS WHY it is not possible to buy it at the bottom now. The current price of 0.205/0.21 is very near to this bottom. The only way is up. This company and GAR are brother company and share many similarities. It is now at the stage like GAR was at 0.225. As it is owned by the 5th richest family in Indonesia, it will never collapse like N and H. Instead, I think there is a possibility of privatisation by the owners or M&A with GAR given its low price. But in either way it would be good for the small investors.
Today only 2400 shares were sold at 0.205.
In the process of clearing 0.21. Once done, it will become 0.21/0.215.
Someone pressed the panic button a few days ago and the price dropped to 0.20. But today it has clearly recovered. I think it was a blessing in disguise. Because of this drop the recovery will be much stronger.
CPO px really really depressed. I think the agri coys really have to find ways to squeeze costs to be profitable. One thing, I understand, is in Malaysia, they are trying to move away from palm oil to other more profitable crops. Hopefully, this wld gradually supply n shore up px.
Finally it is turning around. 0.205 being the bottom is like 0.225 when GAR in the previous loss making quarter. When GAR rised to 0.255 there-about the news about huge profits came in. I believe it will mirror GAR's movement and move up then news on profits and then move up more. Bottoms are caused by none other than lossEs, and recovery will come in advance of good profitability. In a few days' time it might return to the pre-result price of 0.225.
Today margin call so I managed to buy some 0.205. Tomorrow price will go back up
The bottom is 0.205 and the current floor is 0.21. Each pip up is at present 2.4%.
Buyers will come in soon
The floor is no more at 0.205 but 0.21. Today only 5400 shares were sold to someone queuing there (not me, lucky). A highly distressed stock of a company losing money can stage a sharp recovery when it hits the bottom because it might turn profitable next. This is how V or U recovery happens. It is a company belonging to the fifth richest family in Indonesia which is buying out Hyflux.
I agree downside is limited. CPO downside wld appear limited too, given that it has already sunk to ard the RM2200 level (n this has been abt the trough for the past few yrs). I say this even though I' d opined below that CPO px seems persistently going south.
bayduck ( Date: 08-Mar-2019 09:14) Posted:
|
Agree. Not sure about the exact sensitivity of earnings to CPO price, but it' s probably several times magnified on the upside (as Qanghoo suspects: CPO price up 15-20%, share price up 2x).
If CPO price heads south, my suspicion (not backed up) is that share price won' t be hit by a similar degree, given how much negative news have been baked in (Indofood Agri has been a perennial loser).
While it' s very hard to predict CPO price, I personally like this assymetric bet (you win a lot if you are right, you lose a little if you are wrong).
If CPO price heads south, my suspicion (not backed up) is that share price won' t be hit by a similar degree, given how much negative news have been baked in (Indofood Agri has been a perennial loser).
While it' s very hard to predict CPO price, I personally like this assymetric bet (you win a lot if you are right, you lose a little if you are wrong).
Qanghoo ( Date: 08-Mar-2019 08:02) Posted:
|
In my view, share px cld return to 40-50 cts if, n a big if, CPO px improves by 15-20%. But with CPO px seeming to go south persistently, this prognosis seems bleak.
The pattern is very similar to GAR . The potential is awesome.
Chance to buy at its bottom. I think it will bounce up soon