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the 2022 rate hikes and the many rate hikes after that first hike

chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:28) Posted: the crazy rate hikes rob the poor and give to the rich and make them wealthier The COVID-19 shock to the international financial markets caused the transfer of $100 billion from emerging market portfolio investments in just one month.6 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P87nnruGa6Q Local Currency Devaluation: When a country' s currency depreciates against the U.S. dollar or another strong currency, the cost of servicing debt denominated in that currency increases for local borrowers. Local businesses and financial institutions may find it more challenging to repay their dollar-denominated debts with weakened local currencies. Reversal of Capital Flows: Capital flows, including foreign investments, loans, and other financial transactions, can impact a country' s exchange rates. A reversal of capital flows implies a sudden and significant change in the direction of these financial movements. For example, if foreign investors start pulling their money out of a country, it can contribute to a depreciation of the local currency. Pressure on Corporations and Banks: Corporations and banks that have borrowed in dollars may face increased pressure when local currencies devalue. If their revenues do not increase in tandem with the rising costs of servicing dollar debt (due to the devaluation), it can lead to financial stress. Mismatch in Revenues and Debt Servicing Costs: The key concern is the potential mismatch between the currency in which the debt is denominated (dollars) and the currency in which revenues are generated (potentially the local currency). If revenues do not increase or if they are generated in a depreciating currency, it becomes more challenging for borrowers to meet their debt obligations. Economic Implications: A situation where businesses and financial institutions struggle to service their dollar-denominated debt can have broader economic implications, potentially leading to financial instability and economic downturns. Governments and financial institutions in such situations may implement various measures to stabilize their economies, such as monetary policy adjustments, fiscal stimulus, or seeking external support from international organizations. chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:24) Posted: The Debt Burden The second downside of higher U.S. interest rates on emerging nations is the increasing cost of U.S. dollar-denominated debt.   Emerging-market governments,  corporations. and banks took advantage of low-cost borrowing to shore up their finances.   This is doubly problematic because local currency devaluation caused by a reversal of capital flows can make servicing this dollar debt more difficult. Corporations and banks that borrowed in dollars could be facing greater pressure if they don&rsquo t have matching increases in revenues.   Estimates of exactly which countries are most exposed vary widely and change frequently.   As of 2021, the list of countries most vulnerable to Fed rate increases due to their high levels of foreign-denominated debt was topped by Hungary, Peru, Turkey, and Poland, according to the Federal Reserve.8 he potential negative impact of higher U.S. interest rates on emerging nations, particularly in relation to the increasing cost of U.S. dollar-denominated debt. Here are some key points to understand: Low-Cost Borrowing: Emerging-market governments, corporations, and banks had taken advantage of low-cost borrowing in U.S. dollars to strengthen their financial positions. This borrowing allowed them to access funds at favorable interest rates, helping them address financial challenges or invest in various projects. Local Currency Devaluation: A significant issue arises when there is a reversal of capital flows, leading to local currency devaluation in emerging nations. The devaluation makes it more challenging for these countries to service their U.S. dollar-denominated debt. This is because the cost of repaying the debt in dollars becomes relatively higher when converted into the weaker local currency. Pressure on Corporations and Banks: Companies and banks in emerging markets that borrowed in U.S. dollars may face increased pressure if their revenues do not rise proportionately. If the local currency weakens, the cost of repaying debt in dollars may surpass the earnings generated in the local currency, putting financial strain on these entities. Vulnerability of Countries: The vulnerability of countries to the impact of higher U.S. interest rates varies, and estimates can change over time. As of 2021, the Federal Reserve identified Hungary, Peru, Turkey, and Poland as countries most vulnerable to the potential consequences of Federal Reserve interest rate increases. However, it' s important to note that these assessments are subject to change based on economic conditions and other factors. In summary, the increasing cost of U.S. dollar-denominated debt for emerging nations, coupled with the risk of local currency devaluation, poses challenges to their financial stability. The vulnerability of specific countries can vary, and ongoing monitoring is necessary to assess the evolving situation.

 

the crazy rate hikes rob the poor and give to the rich and make them wealthier

chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:24) Posted: The Debt Burden The second downside of higher U.S. interest rates on emerging nations is the increasing cost of U.S. dollar-denominated debt.   Emerging-market governments,  corporations. and banks took advantage of low-cost borrowing to shore up their finances.   This is doubly problematic because local currency devaluation caused by a reversal of capital flows can make servicing this dollar debt more difficult. Corporations and banks that borrowed in dollars could be facing greater pressure if they don&rsquo t have matching increases in revenues.   Estimates of exactly which countries are most exposed vary widely and change frequently.   As of 2021, the list of countries most vulnerable to Fed rate increases due to their high levels of foreign-denominated debt was topped by Hungary, Peru, Turkey, and Poland, according to the Federal Reserve.8 he potential negative impact of higher U.S. interest rates on emerging nations, particularly in relation to the increasing cost of U.S. dollar-denominated debt. Here are some key points to understand: Low-Cost Borrowing: Emerging-market governments, corporations, and banks had taken advantage of low-cost borrowing in U.S. dollars to strengthen their financial positions. This borrowing allowed them to access funds at favorable interest rates, helping them address financial challenges or invest in various projects. Local Currency Devaluation: A significant issue arises when there is a reversal of capital flows, leading to local currency devaluation in emerging nations. The devaluation makes it more challenging for these countries to service their U.S. dollar-denominated debt. This is because the cost of repaying the debt in dollars becomes relatively higher when converted into the weaker local currency. Pressure on Corporations and Banks: Companies and banks in emerging markets that borrowed in U.S. dollars may face increased pressure if their revenues do not rise proportionately. If the local currency weakens, the cost of repaying debt in dollars may surpass the earnings generated in the local currency, putting financial strain on these entities. Vulnerability of Countries: The vulnerability of countries to the impact of higher U.S. interest rates varies, and estimates can change over time. As of 2021, the Federal Reserve identified Hungary, Peru, Turkey, and Poland as countries most vulnerable to the potential consequences of Federal Reserve interest rate increases. However, it' s important to note that these assessments are subject to change based on economic conditions and other factors. In summary, the increasing cost of U.S. dollar-denominated debt for emerging nations, coupled with the risk of local currency devaluation, poses challenges to their financial stability. The vulnerability of specific countries can vary, and ongoing monitoring is necessary to assess the evolving situation. chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:21) Posted: the DR Evil dollar Capital Outflows Most emerging markets are heavily reliant on the flow of foreign investment cash from the U.S. and other developed nations. The money helps their businesses and their economies grow. The cash helps them fund their fiscal or current account deficits.   But there are two important facts about capital inflows to emerging markets that must be kept in mind, according to the policy analysis site VoxEU: They are fickle, and they reverse course just when they are most needed by those nations.6   As investment returns rise in the U.S., international capital flows away from emerging markets could accelerate and make funding the &ldquo twin deficits&rdquo more difficult.   The point of the interest rate increases is to relieve inflation in the U.S., but its side effect is to worsen inflation in other nations, not just emerging-market nations.7 Capital outflows from emerging markets can have significant implications for these economies. The flow of foreign investment cash from developed nations, especially the U.S., plays a crucial role in supporting businesses and fostering economic growth in emerging markets. This capital is often used to fund fiscal or current account deficits, helping these nations meet their financial needs. However, there are two key challenges associated with capital inflows to emerging markets. First, these inflows are characterized as " fickle," meaning they can be unpredictable and subject to sudden shifts. Second, they tend to reverse course just when these funds are most needed by the recipient nations. This unpredictability can create challenges for policymakers and businesses in emerging markets, making it difficult to plan and manage economic activities effectively. One factor that can contribute to capital outflows from emerging markets is the rise in investment returns in developed nations, particularly the U.S. When returns on investments increase in the U.S., international capital may be redirected away from emerging markets. This redirection of funds can pose challenges for these nations, making it harder for them to fund their " twin deficits" &mdash referring to both fiscal and current account deficits. The twin deficits become more difficult to manage when capital outflows occur, potentially leading to economic imbalances and increased financial stress. The cyclicality of capital flows means that just when emerging markets might need foreign investment the most, they could experience a reduction in capital inflows. Additionally, the side effects of interest rate increases in the U.S., implemented to address inflation concerns domestically, can exacerbate inflationary pressures in other nations, including emerging markets. This spillover effect underscores the interconnectedness of the global economy and the challenges faced by emerging markets in navigating the impact of policies in developed economies. In summary, the fickle and unpredictable nature of capital inflows, coupled with the potential reversal of these flows at critical times, poses challenges for emerging markets. Policymakers in these nations need to carefully manage their economic policies to mitigate the impact of capital outflows and external factors, such as interest rate changes in developed economies.

 

The Debt Burden

The second downside of higher U.S. interest rates on emerging nations is the increasing cost of U.S. dollar-denominated debt. Emerging-market governments,  corporations. and banks took advantage of low-cost borrowing to shore up their finances. This is doubly problematic because local currency devaluation caused by a reversal of capital flows can make servicing this dollar debt more difficult. Corporations and banks that borrowed in dollars could be facing greater pressure if they don&rsquo t have matching increases in revenues. Estimates of exactly which countries are most exposed vary widely and change frequently.

chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:21) Posted: the DR Evil dollar Capital Outflows Most emerging markets are heavily reliant on the flow of foreign investment cash from the U.S. and other developed nations. The money helps their businesses and their economies grow. The cash helps them fund their fiscal or current account deficits.   But there are two important facts about capital inflows to emerging markets that must be kept in mind, according to the policy analysis site VoxEU: They are fickle, and they reverse course just when they are most needed by those nations.6   As investment returns rise in the U.S., international capital flows away from emerging markets could accelerate and make funding the &ldquo twin deficits&rdquo more difficult.   The point of the interest rate increases is to relieve inflation in the U.S., but its side effect is to worsen inflation in other nations, not just emerging-market nations.7 Capital outflows from emerging markets can have significant implications for these economies. The flow of foreign investment cash from developed nations, especially the U.S., plays a crucial role in supporting businesses and fostering economic growth in emerging markets. This capital is often used to fund fiscal or current account deficits, helping these nations meet their financial needs. However, there are two key challenges associated with capital inflows to emerging markets. First, these inflows are characterized as " fickle," meaning they can be unpredictable and subject to sudden shifts. Second, they tend to reverse course just when these funds are most needed by the recipient nations. This unpredictability can create challenges for policymakers and businesses in emerging markets, making it difficult to plan and manage economic activities effectively. One factor that can contribute to capital outflows from emerging markets is the rise in investment returns in developed nations, particularly the U.S. When returns on investments increase in the U.S., international capital may be redirected away from emerging markets. This redirection of funds can pose challenges for these nations, making it harder for them to fund their " twin deficits" &mdash referring to both fiscal and current account deficits. The twin deficits become more difficult to manage when capital outflows occur, potentially leading to economic imbalances and increased financial stress. The cyclicality of capital flows means that just when emerging markets might need foreign investment the most, they could experience a reduction in capital inflows. Additionally, the side effects of interest rate increases in the U.S., implemented to address inflation concerns domestically, can exacerbate inflationary pressures in other nations, including emerging markets. This spillover effect underscores the interconnectedness of the global economy and the challenges faced by emerging markets in navigating the impact of policies in developed economies. In summary, the fickle and unpredictable nature of capital inflows, coupled with the potential reversal of these flows at critical times, poses challenges for emerging markets. Policymakers in these nations need to carefully manage their economic policies to mitigate the impact of capital outflows and external factors, such as interest rate changes in developed economies.   chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:15) Posted: why the US time the 12 x rates hike just after EM' s lift the covid ' s cricuit breaker? The COVID Effect By mid-2020, sovereign debt defaults by emerging markets had reached 7.8%, a level not seen since 2001, according to an analysis by Neuberger Berman, an investment research firm.   Only infusions of cash from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and " Chinese entities" relieved the crisis in some nations, including Kenya, Ivory Coast, Angola, and Ghana. This scenario reflects the economic challenges and vulnerabilities faced by many emerging markets as a result of the pandemic. The global economic downturn, disruptions in trade, and other pandemic-related factors likely contributed to these sovereign debt issues. International organizations and countries with financial resources stepped in to provide financial assistance and support to help these nations weather the economic storm caused by the pandemic.

 

the DR Evil dollar

Capital Outflows

Most emerging markets are heavily reliant on the flow of foreign investment cash from the U.S. and other developed nations. The money helps their businesses and their economies grow. The cash helps them fund their fiscal or current account deficits. But there are two important facts about capital inflows to emerging markets that must be kept in mind, according to the policy analysis site VoxEU: They are fickle, and they reverse course just when they are most needed by those nations.6 As investment returns rise in the U.S., international capital flows away from emerging markets could accelerate and make funding the &ldquo twin deficits&rdquo more difficult. The point of the interest rate increases is to relieve inflation in the U.S., but its side effect is to worsen inflation in other nations, not just emerging-market nations.7
Capital outflows from emerging markets can have significant implications for these economies. The flow of foreign investment cash from developed nations, especially the U.S., plays a crucial role in supporting businesses and fostering economic growth in emerging markets. This capital is often used to fund fiscal or current account deficits, helping these nations meet their financial needs.
However, there are two key challenges associated with capital inflows to emerging markets. First, these inflows are characterized as " fickle," meaning they can be unpredictable and subject to sudden shifts. Second, they tend to reverse course just when these funds are most needed by the recipient nations. This unpredictability can create challenges for policymakers and businesses in emerging markets, making it difficult to plan and manage economic activities effectively.
One factor that can contribute to capital outflows from emerging markets is the rise in investment returns in developed nations, particularly the U.S. When returns on investments increase in the U.S., international capital may be redirected away from emerging markets. This redirection of funds can pose challenges for these nations, making it harder for them to fund their " twin deficits" &mdash referring to both fiscal and current account deficits.
The twin deficits become more difficult to manage when capital outflows occur, potentially leading to economic imbalances and increased financial stress. The cyclicality of capital flows means that just when emerging markets might need foreign investment the most, they could experience a reduction in capital inflows.
Additionally, the side effects of interest rate increases in the U.S., implemented to address inflation concerns domestically, can exacerbate inflationary pressures in other nations, including emerging markets. This spillover effect underscores the interconnectedness of the global economy and the challenges faced by emerging markets in navigating the impact of policies in developed economies.
In summary, the fickle and unpredictable nature of capital inflows, coupled with the potential reversal of these flows at critical times, poses challenges for emerging markets. Policymakers in these nations need to carefully manage their economic policies to mitigate the impact of capital outflows and external factors, such as interest rate changes in developed economies.

 

chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:15) Posted: why the US time the 12 x rates hike just after EM' s lift the covid ' s cricuit breaker? The COVID Effect By mid-2020, sovereign debt defaults by emerging markets had reached 7.8%, a level not seen since 2001, according to an analysis by Neuberger Berman, an investment research firm.   Only infusions of cash from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and " Chinese entities" relieved the crisis in some nations, including Kenya, Ivory Coast, Angola, and Ghana. This scenario reflects the economic challenges and vulnerabilities faced by many emerging markets as a result of the pandemic. The global economic downturn, disruptions in trade, and other pandemic-related factors likely contributed to these sovereign debt issues. International organizations and countries with financial resources stepped in to provide financial assistance and support to help these nations weather the economic storm caused by the pandemic. chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:11) Posted: Bad Timing The interest rate hikes come at a particularly bad time for emerging market nations. Many are heavily dependent on tourism, which virtually evaporated for two years during the COVID-19 pandemic.   The U.S. dollar was already on an upward trajectory, having risen 8% in one year to a two-decade high as of the end of April 2022.4 he impact of 12 consecutive interest rate hikes in the United States and the potential negative consequences, especially for emerging market nations. Here' s an analysis: Increased Debt Servicing Costs: As the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates, borrowing costs across the globe tend to rise. Emerging market nations often have high levels of debt denominated in foreign currencies. With an appreciating U.S. dollar, servicing this debt becomes more expensive, putting pressure on these economies. Impact on Tourism-Dependent Economies: The timing of the rate hikes is unfortunate for nations relying heavily on tourism. The COVID-19 pandemic already severely impacted these countries, causing a significant decline in tourism for two years. Interest rate hikes may further deter spending by tourists, impacting these economies' recovery. Currency Depreciation: The rising U.S. dollar, coupled with interest rate hikes, can lead to currency depreciation in emerging markets. A weaker local currency makes imports more expensive, contributing to inflationary pressures and potentially hurting the purchasing power of citizens. Capital Flight: Higher interest rates in the U.S. may attract capital away from emerging markets. Investors seeking higher returns may move their funds to the U.S., leading to capital flight from these nations. This can result in decreased liquidity and increased financial instability. Trade Imbalances: The combination of a stronger U.S. dollar and higher interest rates can affect global trade balances. Emerging markets may find it harder to export goods as their currencies weaken, while imports become more expensive, potentially widening trade deficits. Slowed Economic Growth: The cumulative impact of these factors can contribute to slowed economic growth in emerging markets. Higher debt servicing costs, reduced tourism revenue, and capital flight can hinder investment and economic development. Policy Dilemma: Central banks in emerging markets might face a policy dilemma. To counter the effects of external shocks, they may need to consider their own interest rate adjustments. However, raising rates to defend their currencies could also dampen domestic economic activity. Social Implications: Economic challenges can have social implications, potentially leading to increased unemployment, poverty, and social unrest. Governments may face difficulties in managing these issues, especially if they coincide with other challenges, such as the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

why the US time the 12 x rates hike just after EM' s lift the covid ' s cricuit breaker?

The COVID Effect

By mid-2020, sovereign debt defaults by emerging markets had reached 7.8%, a level not seen since 2001, according to an analysis by Neuberger Berman, an investment research firm.

chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:11) Posted: Bad Timing The interest rate hikes come at a particularly bad time for emerging market nations. Many are heavily dependent on tourism, which virtually evaporated for two years during the COVID-19 pandemic.   The U.S. dollar was already on an upward trajectory, having risen 8% in one year to a two-decade high as of the end of April 2022.4 he impact of 12 consecutive interest rate hikes in the United States and the potential negative consequences, especially for emerging market nations. Here' s an analysis: Increased Debt Servicing Costs: As the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates, borrowing costs across the globe tend to rise. Emerging market nations often have high levels of debt denominated in foreign currencies. With an appreciating U.S. dollar, servicing this debt becomes more expensive, putting pressure on these economies. Impact on Tourism-Dependent Economies: The timing of the rate hikes is unfortunate for nations relying heavily on tourism. The COVID-19 pandemic already severely impacted these countries, causing a significant decline in tourism for two years. Interest rate hikes may further deter spending by tourists, impacting these economies' recovery. Currency Depreciation: The rising U.S. dollar, coupled with interest rate hikes, can lead to currency depreciation in emerging markets. A weaker local currency makes imports more expensive, contributing to inflationary pressures and potentially hurting the purchasing power of citizens. Capital Flight: Higher interest rates in the U.S. may attract capital away from emerging markets. Investors seeking higher returns may move their funds to the U.S., leading to capital flight from these nations. This can result in decreased liquidity and increased financial instability. Trade Imbalances: The combination of a stronger U.S. dollar and higher interest rates can affect global trade balances. Emerging markets may find it harder to export goods as their currencies weaken, while imports become more expensive, potentially widening trade deficits. Slowed Economic Growth: The cumulative impact of these factors can contribute to slowed economic growth in emerging markets. Higher debt servicing costs, reduced tourism revenue, and capital flight can hinder investment and economic development. Policy Dilemma: Central banks in emerging markets might face a policy dilemma. To counter the effects of external shocks, they may need to consider their own interest rate adjustments. However, raising rates to defend their currencies could also dampen domestic economic activity. Social Implications: Economic challenges can have social implications, potentially leading to increased unemployment, poverty, and social unrest. Governments may face difficulties in managing these issues, especially if they coincide with other challenges, such as the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.   chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:08) Posted: US' s QE and OT in 2008 result in EM' s debt trapped and a increased in proverty and a reduce in prosperity in the EM region There are two primary concerns about higher interest rates and a stronger dollar on emerging markets:   Capital outflows will reverse as money invested overseas returns to the safer confines of the U.S. Higher interest rates will make it more expensive for overseas borrowers, both businesses and governments, to obtain financing and pay down their existing debts. Indeed, the concerns you' ve mentioned are key factors that can impact emerging markets when there are higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar: Capital Outflows: Reversal of Investments: When interest rates rise in the U.S., investors may find U.S. assets more attractive compared to those in emerging markets. As a result, there might be a withdrawal of capital from these markets as investors seek better returns and perceived safety in the U.S. Currency Depreciation: The outflow of capital can lead to a depreciation of the local currency, making imports more expensive and potentially fueling inflation. Costly Financing: Increased Borrowing Costs: Higher interest rates in the U.S. often lead to higher global borrowing costs. Emerging market businesses and governments that have borrowed in U.S. dollars may face increased interest payments, potentially straining their finances. Debt Servicing Challenges: As the cost of servicing existing debt rises, it becomes more challenging for businesses and governments in emerging markets to meet their debt obligations. This could lead to financial stress and potential defaults.

 

Bad Timing

The interest rate hikes come at a particularly bad time for emerging market nations. Many are heavily dependent on tourism, which virtually evaporated for two years during the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. dollar was already on an upward trajectory, having risen 8% in one year to a two-decade high as of the end of April 2022.4

he impact of 12 consecutive interest rate hikes in the United States and the potential negative consequences, especially for emerging market nations. Here' s an analysis:

1. Increased Debt Servicing Costs: As the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates, borrowing costs across the globe tend to rise. Emerging market nations often have high levels of debt denominated in foreign currencies. With an appreciating U.S. dollar, servicing this debt becomes more expensive, putting pressure on these economies.
2. Impact on Tourism-Dependent Economies: The timing of the rate hikes is unfortunate for nations relying heavily on tourism. The COVID-19 pandemic already severely impacted these countries, causing a significant decline in tourism for two years. Interest rate hikes may further deter spending by tourists, impacting these economies' recovery.
3. Currency Depreciation: The rising U.S. dollar, coupled with interest rate hikes, can lead to currency depreciation in emerging markets. A weaker local currency makes imports more expensive, contributing to inflationary pressures and potentially hurting the purchasing power of citizens.
4. Capital Flight: Higher interest rates in the U.S. may attract capital away from emerging markets. Investors seeking higher returns may move their funds to the U.S., leading to capital flight from these nations. This can result in decreased liquidity and increased financial instability.
5. Trade Imbalances: The combination of a stronger U.S. dollar and higher interest rates can affect global trade balances. Emerging markets may find it harder to export goods as their currencies weaken, while imports become more expensive, potentially widening trade deficits.
6. Slowed Economic Growth: The cumulative impact of these factors can contribute to slowed economic growth in emerging markets. Higher debt servicing costs, reduced tourism revenue, and capital flight can hinder investment and economic development.
7. Policy Dilemma: Central banks in emerging markets might face a policy dilemma. To counter the effects of external shocks, they may need to consider their own interest rate adjustments. However, raising rates to defend their currencies could also dampen domestic economic activity.
8. Social Implications: Economic challenges can have social implications, potentially leading to increased unemployment, poverty, and social unrest. Governments may face difficulties in managing these issues, especially if they coincide with other challenges, such as the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:08) Posted: US' s QE and OT in 2008 result in EM' s debt trapped and a increased in proverty and a reduce in prosperity in the EM region There are two primary concerns about higher interest rates and a stronger dollar on emerging markets:   Capital outflows will reverse as money invested overseas returns to the safer confines of the U.S. Higher interest rates will make it more expensive for overseas borrowers, both businesses and governments, to obtain financing and pay down their existing debts. Indeed, the concerns you' ve mentioned are key factors that can impact emerging markets when there are higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar: Capital Outflows: Reversal of Investments: When interest rates rise in the U.S., investors may find U.S. assets more attractive compared to those in emerging markets. As a result, there might be a withdrawal of capital from these markets as investors seek better returns and perceived safety in the U.S. Currency Depreciation: The outflow of capital can lead to a depreciation of the local currency, making imports more expensive and potentially fueling inflation. Costly Financing: Increased Borrowing Costs: Higher interest rates in the U.S. often lead to higher global borrowing costs. Emerging market businesses and governments that have borrowed in U.S. dollars may face increased interest payments, potentially straining their finances. Debt Servicing Challenges: As the cost of servicing existing debt rises, it becomes more challenging for businesses and governments in emerging markets to meet their debt obligations. This could lead to financial stress and potential defaults. chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:04) Posted: the US' s military and dollar' s supremacy But what does it mean for emerging markets?   Key Takeaways A strong U.S. dollar generally harms the economies of emerging nations. Emerging markets are reliant on foreign investment and foreign capital, both of which can evaporate when the dollar gains in value. At the same time, higher interest rates make it harder for emerging-market nations and companies to pay their dollar-denominated debts. The worst-case scenario is a greater risk of default. A weak U.S. dollar creates an incentive for companies to invest in emerging markets. Strong U.S. Dollar: Negative Impact: A strong U.S. dollar generally harms the economies of emerging nations. When the U.S. dollar strengthens, it often leads to a decrease in the value of other currencies. This can be detrimental for emerging markets that rely on exports, as their goods become more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially reducing demand. Foreign Investment and Capital Flow: Emerging markets often depend on foreign investment and capital to fund development projects and drive economic growth. When the U.S. dollar is strong, foreign investment and capital may flow out of emerging markets and back to the U.S. seeking better returns or safety. Debt Servicing Challenge: Higher interest rates in the U.S. that often accompany a strong dollar can make it more difficult for emerging-market nations and companies to service their dollar-denominated debts. This is because they have to pay more in local currency to cover the interest and principal on their debt, which can strain their financial stability. Risk of Default: In the worst-case scenario, a combination of reduced foreign investment, capital outflows, and higher debt-servicing costs may increase the risk of default for emerging-market nations and companies. Weak U.S. Dollar: Positive Impact: Conversely, a weak U.S. dollar creates an incentive for companies to invest in emerging markets. When the U.S. dollar is weaker, it makes exports from emerging markets more attractive to foreign buyers. This can stimulate economic activity in these nations, boosting exports and potentially attracting foreign investment. Reduced Debt Pressure: A weaker U.S. dollar may also alleviate some of the debt-servicing pressure on emerging markets. The cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt becomes relatively lower when the U.S. dollar is weaker, making it easier for these nations and companies to meet their financial obligations. Attracting Investment: Companies may find it more attractive to invest in emerging markets when the U.S. dollar is weaker, as it can enhance their competitiveness and potentially offer better investment returns.

 

US' s QE and OT in 2008 result in EM' s debt trapped and a increased in proverty and a reduce in prosperity in the EM region

There are two primary concerns about higher interest rates and a stronger dollar on emerging markets:

• Capital outflows will reverse as money invested overseas returns to the safer confines of the U.S.
• Higher interest rates will make it more expensive for overseas borrowers, both businesses and governments, to obtain financing and pay down their existing debts.
• Indeed, the concerns you' ve mentioned are key factors that can impact emerging markets when there are higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar:
• Capital Outflows:
  • Reversal of Investments: When interest rates rise in the U.S., investors may find U.S. assets more attractive compared to those in emerging markets. As a result, there might be a withdrawal of capital from these markets as investors seek better returns and perceived safety in the U.S.
  • Currency Depreciation: The outflow of capital can lead to a depreciation of the local currency, making imports more expensive and potentially fueling inflation.
• Costly Financing:
  • Increased Borrowing Costs: Higher interest rates in the U.S. often lead to higher global borrowing costs. Emerging market businesses and governments that have borrowed in U.S. dollars may face increased interest payments, potentially straining their finances.
  • Debt Servicing Challenges: As the cost of servicing existing debt rises, it becomes more challenging for businesses and governments in emerging markets to meet their debt obligations. This could lead to financial stress and potential defaults.

chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:04) Posted: the US' s military and dollar' s supremacy But what does it mean for emerging markets?   Key Takeaways A strong U.S. dollar generally harms the economies of emerging nations. Emerging markets are reliant on foreign investment and foreign capital, both of which can evaporate when the dollar gains in value. At the same time, higher interest rates make it harder for emerging-market nations and companies to pay their dollar-denominated debts. The worst-case scenario is a greater risk of default. A weak U.S. dollar creates an incentive for companies to invest in emerging markets. Strong U.S. Dollar: Negative Impact: A strong U.S. dollar generally harms the economies of emerging nations. When the U.S. dollar strengthens, it often leads to a decrease in the value of other currencies. This can be detrimental for emerging markets that rely on exports, as their goods become more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially reducing demand. Foreign Investment and Capital Flow: Emerging markets often depend on foreign investment and capital to fund development projects and drive economic growth. When the U.S. dollar is strong, foreign investment and capital may flow out of emerging markets and back to the U.S. seeking better returns or safety. Debt Servicing Challenge: Higher interest rates in the U.S. that often accompany a strong dollar can make it more difficult for emerging-market nations and companies to service their dollar-denominated debts. This is because they have to pay more in local currency to cover the interest and principal on their debt, which can strain their financial stability. Risk of Default: In the worst-case scenario, a combination of reduced foreign investment, capital outflows, and higher debt-servicing costs may increase the risk of default for emerging-market nations and companies. Weak U.S. Dollar: Positive Impact: Conversely, a weak U.S. dollar creates an incentive for companies to invest in emerging markets. When the U.S. dollar is weaker, it makes exports from emerging markets more attractive to foreign buyers. This can stimulate economic activity in these nations, boosting exports and potentially attracting foreign investment. Reduced Debt Pressure: A weaker U.S. dollar may also alleviate some of the debt-servicing pressure on emerging markets. The cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt becomes relatively lower when the U.S. dollar is weaker, making it easier for these nations and companies to meet their financial obligations. Attracting Investment: Companies may find it more attractive to invest in emerging markets when the U.S. dollar is weaker, as it can enhance their competitiveness and potentially offer better investment returns. chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:01) Posted: living in a world when the US FED kept interest rates at 5.5% high the highest in 22 years after 1998' s asian financial crisis It seems like the passage is discussing the potential consequences of an increase in interest rates in the United States. Let' s break down the key points: Higher Interest Rates for Consumers: When interest rates rise, consumers may face increased costs when financing major purchases such as buying a house or financing a car. This is because higher interest rates lead to higher borrowing costs. Reduced Incentive for Business Expansion: Higher interest rates can discourage businesses from expanding. The reasoning behind this is that the increased financing costs associated with higher interest rates may reduce the profitability of expansion projects. Stronger U.S. Dollar: An increase in interest rates can attract foreign capital seeking higher returns. This influx of capital can lead to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar can impact various aspects of the economy, including international trade. Greater Interest in Dollar-Denominated Investments: As interest rates rise, there may be increased interest in investments denominated in U.S. dollars. This is because higher interest rates can offer better returns to investors compared to lower-interest-rate environments. Anticipation Impact on Currency Value: The passage mentions that the value of the U.S. dollar hit a 20-year high in anticipation of more interest rate hikes. This suggests that currency values can be influenced not only by actual policy changes but also by market expectations and speculation.

 

the US' s military and dollar' s supremacy
But what does it mean for emerging markets?

chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:01) Posted: living in a world when the US FED kept interest rates at 5.5% high the highest in 22 years after 1998' s asian financial crisis It seems like the passage is discussing the potential consequences of an increase in interest rates in the United States. Let' s break down the key points: Higher Interest Rates for Consumers: When interest rates rise, consumers may face increased costs when financing major purchases such as buying a house or financing a car. This is because higher interest rates lead to higher borrowing costs. Reduced Incentive for Business Expansion: Higher interest rates can discourage businesses from expanding. The reasoning behind this is that the increased financing costs associated with higher interest rates may reduce the profitability of expansion projects. Stronger U.S. Dollar: An increase in interest rates can attract foreign capital seeking higher returns. This influx of capital can lead to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar can impact various aspects of the economy, including international trade. Greater Interest in Dollar-Denominated Investments: As interest rates rise, there may be increased interest in investments denominated in U.S. dollars. This is because higher interest rates can offer better returns to investors compared to lower-interest-rate environments. Anticipation Impact on Currency Value: The passage mentions that the value of the U.S. dollar hit a 20-year high in anticipation of more interest rate hikes. This suggests that currency values can be influenced not only by actual policy changes but also by market expectations and speculation. chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 08:59) Posted: usdsgd 1.3369 How Can a Strong U.S. Dollar Hurt Emerging Nations? After years of keeping interest rates near zero, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in March 2022 and by another 50 points in May. And, it signaled that it planned to raise rates several more times in 2022 alone as it struggles to control inflation in the U.S. Increased Debt Burden: Many emerging nations borrow in U.S. dollars, and a stronger U.S. dollar makes their debt more expensive to service and repay. As the value of the U.S. dollar rises, the relative value of other currencies falls, increasing the debt burden for nations with dollar-denominated debt. Capital Outflows: A higher interest rate in the U.S. can attract capital from emerging markets to the U.S. in search of better returns. Investors may find U.S. assets more attractive due to higher yields, leading to capital outflows from emerging economies. This can result in a depreciating local currency and financial instability. Weakening Exports: Emerging markets often rely heavily on exports to drive economic growth. A stronger U.S. dollar makes their goods more expensive for U.S. consumers, potentially reducing demand for exports. This can negatively impact the trade balance and economic growth in emerging nations. Inflationary Pressures: A stronger U.S. dollar can contribute to inflationary pressures in emerging economies. As their currencies depreciate, the cost of imported goods and commodities denominated in U.S. dollars rises. This can lead to higher inflation rates, affecting the cost of living for citizens. Reduced Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): A stronger U.S. dollar may make it more expensive for foreign investors to invest in emerging markets. Additionally, the perception of higher risk in emerging economies, coupled with the lure of higher returns in the U.S., can result in reduced foreign direct investment. Pressure on Central Banks: Central banks in emerging nations may face challenges in managing monetary policy. To defend their currencies against depreciation, they might need to raise interest rates, which can negatively impact domestic borrowing, investment, and economic activity.

 

living in a world when the US FED kept interest rates at 5.5% high the highest in 22 years after 1998' s asian financial crisis

It seems like the passage is discussing the potential consequences of an increase in interest rates in the United States. Let' s break down the key points:

1. Higher Interest Rates for Consumers: When interest rates rise, consumers may face increased costs when financing major purchases such as buying a house or financing a car. This is because higher interest rates lead to higher borrowing costs.
2. Reduced Incentive for Business Expansion: Higher interest rates can discourage businesses from expanding. The reasoning behind this is that the increased financing costs associated with higher interest rates may reduce the profitability of expansion projects.
3. Stronger U.S. Dollar: An increase in interest rates can attract foreign capital seeking higher returns. This influx of capital can lead to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar can impact various aspects of the economy, including international trade.
4. Greater Interest in Dollar-Denominated Investments: As interest rates rise, there may be increased interest in investments denominated in U.S. dollars. This is because higher interest rates can offer better returns to investors compared to lower-interest-rate environments.
5. Anticipation Impact on Currency Value: The passage mentions that the value of the U.S. dollar hit a 20-year high in anticipation of more interest rate hikes. This suggests that currency values can be influenced not only by actual policy changes but also by market expectations and speculation.

chartiskao      ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 08:59) Posted: usdsgd 1.3369 How Can a Strong U.S. Dollar Hurt Emerging Nations? After years of keeping interest rates near zero, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in March 2022 and by another 50 points in May. And, it signaled that it planned to raise rates several more times in 2022 alone as it struggles to control inflation in the U.S. Increased Debt Burden: Many emerging nations borrow in U.S. dollars, and a stronger U.S. dollar makes their debt more expensive to service and repay. As the value of the U.S. dollar rises, the relative value of other currencies falls, increasing the debt burden for nations with dollar-denominated debt. Capital Outflows: A higher interest rate in the U.S. can attract capital from emerging markets to the U.S. in search of better returns. Investors may find U.S. assets more attractive due to higher yields, leading to capital outflows from emerging economies. This can result in a depreciating local currency and financial instability. Weakening Exports: Emerging markets often rely heavily on exports to drive economic growth. A stronger U.S. dollar makes their goods more expensive for U.S. consumers, potentially reducing demand for exports. This can negatively impact the trade balance and economic growth in emerging nations. Inflationary Pressures: A stronger U.S. dollar can contribute to inflationary pressures in emerging economies. As their currencies depreciate, the cost of imported goods and commodities denominated in U.S. dollars rises. This can lead to higher inflation rates, affecting the cost of living for citizens. Reduced Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): A stronger U.S. dollar may make it more expensive for foreign investors to invest in emerging markets. Additionally, the perception of higher risk in emerging economies, coupled with the lure of higher returns in the U.S., can result in reduced foreign direct investment. Pressure on Central Banks: Central banks in emerging nations may face challenges in managing monetary policy. To defend their currencies against depreciation, they might need to raise interest rates, which can negatively impact domestic borrowing, investment, and economic activity. chartiskao      ( Date: 01-Feb-2024 15:18) Posted: When did S& P 500 hit all time high?     The S& P 500 index set a new all-time high in January, marking the official beginning of a new bull market. It has been on the rise since October 2022, when it finally bottomed after falling more than 20% (and into bear market territory). But not every stock has followed the broader market to set record highs.2 Whether in a bull, bear, or range-bound market, buy on fear and sell on greed, assuming the share price is attractive (fear) or above our cost basis (greed). However, trying to predict market movements is a fool' s game. Buying stocks is exhilarating, but selling is exacerbating   the bitcoin crashed from usd70000 to usd 9000 during 2021

 

usdsgd 1.3369

How Can a Strong U.S. Dollar Hurt Emerging Nations?

chartiskao      ( Date: 01-Feb-2024 15:18) Posted: When did S& P 500 hit all time high?     The S& P 500 index set a new all-time high in January, marking the official beginning of a new bull market. It has been on the rise since October 2022, when it finally bottomed after falling more than 20% (and into bear market territory). But not every stock has followed the broader market to set record highs.2 Whether in a bull, bear, or range-bound market, buy on fear and sell on greed, assuming the share price is attractive (fear) or above our cost basis (greed). However, trying to predict market movements is a fool' s game. Buying stocks is exhilarating, but selling is exacerbating   the bitcoin crashed from usd70000 to usd 9000 during 2021 chartiskao      ( Date: 01-Feb-2024 10:57) Posted: US swtock at record high in 1999 too now it is What is the highest the US stock market has ever been?     The highest close occurred the previous day&mdash Jan. 4, 2022&mdash when the index closed at 36,799.65. Since posting these all-time highs, the Dow has dropped significantly but rebounded over time, sitting at 35,061.21 as of the market close on July 19, 2023.   vs https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/asia-markets.html   and the angmoh and ah nehs say buy buy buy in US????

 

chartiskao      ( Date: 01-Feb-2024 10:57) Posted: US swtock at record high in 1999 too now it is What is the highest the US stock market has ever been?     The highest close occurred the previous day&mdash Jan. 4, 2022&mdash when the index closed at 36,799.65. Since posting these all-time highs, the Dow has dropped significantly but rebounded over time, sitting at 35,061.21 as of the market close on July 19, 2023.   vs https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/asia-markets.html   and the angmoh and ah nehs say buy buy buy in US???? chartiskao      ( Date: 01-Feb-2024 10:54) Posted: china vs US (number 2 economy vs number1 economy) https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinese-stocks-cheap-buy-sell-f1df014b vs https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market https://edition.cnn.com/markets just like the crypto in 2021 it is weighting to collapse! There is no calamity greater than lavish desires There is no greater guilt than discontentment And there is no greater disaster than greed. Greed is a bottomless pit which exhausts the person in an endless effort to satisfy the need without ever reaching satisfaction.

 

US swtock at record high in 1999 too now it is

chartiskao      ( Date: 01-Feb-2024 10:54) Posted: china vs US (number 2 economy vs number1 economy) https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinese-stocks-cheap-buy-sell-f1df014b vs https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market https://edition.cnn.com/markets just like the crypto in 2021 it is weighting to collapse! There is no calamity greater than lavish desires There is no greater guilt than discontentment And there is no greater disaster than greed. Greed is a bottomless pit which exhausts the person in an endless effort to satisfy the need without ever reaching satisfaction. chartiskao      ( Date: 01-Feb-2024 08:40) Posted: Key features of Additional Tier-1 bonds include: Contingent Convertibility: In times of financial stress, regulators may have the authority to convert these bonds into common equity, thereby bolstering the bank' s capital position. High Yield: AT1 bonds typically offer higher yields compared to other types of bonds, reflecting the higher risk associated with their contingent convertible nature. Perpetual Maturity: They often have no fixed maturity date, but banks usually have the option to redeem them after a specified period. Risk and Reward: While they offer higher yields, investors in AT1 bonds bear the risk of potential conversion to equity in times of financial distress. Investors considering AT1 bonds should carefully assess the financial health of the issuing bank, regulatory conditions, and the terms and conditions of the specific bond issuance. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/20/at1-bank-bonds-credit-suisse-bondholders-cocos https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2023/mar/20/credit-suisse-bondholders-bonds-banking-system

 

china vs US (number 2 economy vs number1 economy)

chartiskao      ( Date: 01-Feb-2024 08:40) Posted: Key features of Additional Tier-1 bonds include: Contingent Convertibility: In times of financial stress, regulators may have the authority to convert these bonds into common equity, thereby bolstering the bank' s capital position. High Yield: AT1 bonds typically offer higher yields compared to other types of bonds, reflecting the higher risk associated with their contingent convertible nature. Perpetual Maturity: They often have no fixed maturity date, but banks usually have the option to redeem them after a specified period. Risk and Reward: While they offer higher yields, investors in AT1 bonds bear the risk of potential conversion to equity in times of financial distress. Investors considering AT1 bonds should carefully assess the financial health of the issuing bank, regulatory conditions, and the terms and conditions of the specific bond issuance. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/20/at1-bank-bonds-credit-suisse-bondholders-cocos https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2023/mar/20/credit-suisse-bondholders-bonds-banking-system   chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 14:02) Posted: The labor market data is likely to confirm the disinflationary process, which will allow the Fed to start cutting interest rate Disinflation refers to a slowdown in the rate of inflation, which is a decrease in the rate of price increases in an economy. In the context provided, if the labor market data supports the idea of disinflation, it implies that there may be a reduction in the pressure that contributes to rising prices. The anticipated disinflationary trend is mentioned as a factor that could allow the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to start cutting interest rates. When facing disinflation or economic slowdown, central banks, including the Fed, may choose to lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity. Lower interest rates can encourage borrowing, spending, and investment, thus supporting economic growth. The decision to cut interest rates is often part of a central bank' s toolkit to manage economic conditions. It' s worth noting that the timing and extent of interest rate adjustments depend on various factors, including inflation levels, employment data, and broader economic indicators. The statement suggests that the Fed may be considering a more accommodative monetary policy stance to address potential disinflationary pressures.

 

Key features of Additional Tier-1 bonds include:

1. Contingent Convertibility: In times of financial stress, regulators may have the authority to convert these bonds into common equity, thereby bolstering the bank' s capital position.
2. High Yield: AT1 bonds typically offer higher yields compared to other types of bonds, reflecting the higher risk associated with their contingent convertible nature.
3. Perpetual Maturity: They often have no fixed maturity date, but banks usually have the option to redeem them after a specified period.
4. Risk and Reward: While they offer higher yields, investors in AT1 bonds bear the risk of potential conversion to equity in times of financial distress.

Investors considering AT1 bonds should carefully assess the financial health of the issuing bank, regulatory conditions, and the terms and conditions of the specific bond issuance.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/20/at1-bank-bonds-credit-suisse-bondholders-cocos
https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2023/mar/20/credit-suisse-bondholders-bonds-banking-system



 

chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 14:02) Posted: The labor market data is likely to confirm the disinflationary process, which will allow the Fed to start cutting interest rate Disinflation refers to a slowdown in the rate of inflation, which is a decrease in the rate of price increases in an economy. In the context provided, if the labor market data supports the idea of disinflation, it implies that there may be a reduction in the pressure that contributes to rising prices. The anticipated disinflationary trend is mentioned as a factor that could allow the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to start cutting interest rates. When facing disinflation or economic slowdown, central banks, including the Fed, may choose to lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity. Lower interest rates can encourage borrowing, spending, and investment, thus supporting economic growth. The decision to cut interest rates is often part of a central bank' s toolkit to manage economic conditions. It' s worth noting that the timing and extent of interest rate adjustments depend on various factors, including inflation levels, employment data, and broader economic indicators. The statement suggests that the Fed may be considering a more accommodative monetary policy stance to address potential disinflationary pressures. chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 14:00) Posted: The U.S. is expected to have added fewer jobs in the last month of 2023 as the transitory effects from the auto and Hollywood strikes that boosted November' s gains are now in the rearview mirror. Nonfarm payrolls, which the U.S. Labor Department is slated to publish at 8:30 AM ET, are seen cooling to 170K in December from the 199K estimate in the prior month. That would spell good news for the Federal Reserve, which is banking on softer conditions to pull off a " soft landing" scenario for the economy. Watch the 4% levels: The unemployment rate, which has stayed low over the last two years, is expected to tick up to 3.8%, but remain below the 4% mark for the 23rd straight month. Similarly, on a Y/Y basis, average hourly earnings are expected to grow 3.9%, which would be the first time wage gains have come in under 4% since mid-2021. Any deceleration would be welcome news for the U.S. central bank, as it seeks to bring labor demand and supply back into balance in a bid to tame inflation.   Last month, the Fed made a dovish pivot, holding its benchmark lending rate steady for a third straight meeting and signaling its intentions to start cutting rates this year. However, if inflation continues to be stubborn and reaccelerates, then the Fed' s rate projections could be subject to change and thus disappoint markets. Keep an eye on this morning' s numbers, which can impact how investors size up Treasuries, as well as stocks that have cooled in the new year following an impressive nine-week winning streak.    how singapore is affected by the two big economy china and us ob Addition Expectations: The U.S. is anticipated to have added fewer jobs in the last month of 2023 compared to November. The transitory effects from auto and Hollywood strikes that boosted November' s gains are no longer present. Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: Nonfarm payrolls, a key indicator of employment, are expected to cool to 170,000 in December, down from the 199,000 estimate in the previous month. Federal Reserve' s Soft Landing Scenario: The Federal Reserve is hoping for softer economic conditions to achieve a " soft landing" scenario. A soft landing refers to a situation where the economy slows down to a sustainable pace without entering a recession. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.8%, but it' s projected to remain below the 4% mark for the 23rd consecutive month. Average Hourly Earnings: Average hourly earnings are expected to grow at a rate of 3.9% on a year-over-year basis. This would be the first time wage gains have been below 4% since mid-2021. Fed' s Dovish Pivot: The Federal Reserve recently made a dovish pivot, keeping its benchmark lending rate steady and signaling an intention to start cutting rates in the coming year. Inflation Concerns: The Fed is closely monitoring inflation, and any reacceleration of inflation could potentially lead to a change in the Fed' s rate projections, impacting financial markets. Market Impact: The information suggests that the morning' s job market numbers could influence how investors assess Treasuries and stocks, especially as markets have cooled in the new year after a nine-week winning streak.

 

chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 14:00) Posted: The U.S. is expected to have added fewer jobs in the last month of 2023 as the transitory effects from the auto and Hollywood strikes that boosted November' s gains are now in the rearview mirror. Nonfarm payrolls, which the U.S. Labor Department is slated to publish at 8:30 AM ET, are seen cooling to 170K in December from the 199K estimate in the prior month. That would spell good news for the Federal Reserve, which is banking on softer conditions to pull off a " soft landing" scenario for the economy. Watch the 4% levels: The unemployment rate, which has stayed low over the last two years, is expected to tick up to 3.8%, but remain below the 4% mark for the 23rd straight month. Similarly, on a Y/Y basis, average hourly earnings are expected to grow 3.9%, which would be the first time wage gains have come in under 4% since mid-2021. Any deceleration would be welcome news for the U.S. central bank, as it seeks to bring labor demand and supply back into balance in a bid to tame inflation.   Last month, the Fed made a dovish pivot, holding its benchmark lending rate steady for a third straight meeting and signaling its intentions to start cutting rates this year. However, if inflation continues to be stubborn and reaccelerates, then the Fed' s rate projections could be subject to change and thus disappoint markets. Keep an eye on this morning' s numbers, which can impact how investors size up Treasuries, as well as stocks that have cooled in the new year following an impressive nine-week winning streak.    how singapore is affected by the two big economy china and us ob Addition Expectations: The U.S. is anticipated to have added fewer jobs in the last month of 2023 compared to November. The transitory effects from auto and Hollywood strikes that boosted November' s gains are no longer present. Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: Nonfarm payrolls, a key indicator of employment, are expected to cool to 170,000 in December, down from the 199,000 estimate in the previous month. Federal Reserve' s Soft Landing Scenario: The Federal Reserve is hoping for softer economic conditions to achieve a " soft landing" scenario. A soft landing refers to a situation where the economy slows down to a sustainable pace without entering a recession. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.8%, but it' s projected to remain below the 4% mark for the 23rd consecutive month. Average Hourly Earnings: Average hourly earnings are expected to grow at a rate of 3.9% on a year-over-year basis. This would be the first time wage gains have been below 4% since mid-2021. Fed' s Dovish Pivot: The Federal Reserve recently made a dovish pivot, keeping its benchmark lending rate steady and signaling an intention to start cutting rates in the coming year. Inflation Concerns: The Fed is closely monitoring inflation, and any reacceleration of inflation could potentially lead to a change in the Fed' s rate projections, impacting financial markets. Market Impact: The information suggests that the morning' s job market numbers could influence how investors assess Treasuries and stocks, especially as markets have cooled in the new year after a nine-week winning streak. chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 13:58) Posted: War demand Many are watching as conflict and war expand across the globe, and what those consequences might mean for various sectors of the economy. The U.S. has already outlawed or effectively lobbied allies against selling cutting-edge semiconductor chips to China out of fear that the silicon could be used for precision-guided kits or other advanced military systems. Traditional arms are also back in fashion, with BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESY) announcing this week that it would restart production of M777 howitzer parts for the U.S. Army. Putting it in perspective, the last order that took place was five years ago, but with output back online, BAE expects to ink new contracts for the artillery cannons themselves, given inquiries from more than eight countries Semiconductor Restrictions: The United States has imposed restrictions on the sale of cutting-edge semiconductor chips to China due to concerns that these technologies could be utilized in the development of advanced military systems, including precision-guided kits. This move reflects the intersection of technology, national security, and trade policies. Revival of Traditional Arms Production: BAE Systems, a major defense contractor, has announced its decision to restart the production of M777 howitzer parts for the U.S. Army. The M777 howitzer is a lightweight artillery piece. This revival is noteworthy as it signals a resurgence in the production of traditional arms, indicating an increased demand for such military equipment. Increased Arms Contracts: BAE Systems anticipates securing new contracts for the artillery cannons themselves as a result of restarting production. The company has reportedly received inquiries from more than eight countries, suggesting a growing demand for military equipment amid global geopolitical tensions. Global Impact: The mention of inquiries from multiple countries indicates that the demand for military hardware is not confined to a specific region. The expanding conflict landscape globally appears to be driving interest and demand for defense equipment from various nations.

 

The U.S. is expected to have added fewer jobs in the last month of 2023 as the transitory effects from the auto and Hollywood strikes that boosted November' s gains are now in the rearview mirror. Nonfarm payrolls, which the U.S. Labor Department is slated to publish at 8:30 AM ET, are seen cooling to 170K in December from the 199K estimate in the prior month. That would spell good news for the Federal Reserve, which is banking on softer conditions to pull off a " soft landing" scenario for the economy.

Watch the 4% levels: The unemployment rate, which has stayed low over the last two years, is expected to tick up to 3.8%, but remain below the 4% mark for the 23rd straight month. Similarly, on a Y/Y basis, average hourly earnings are expected to grow 3.9%, which would be the first time wage gains have come in under 4% since mid-2021. Any deceleration would be welcome news for the U.S. central bank, as it seeks to bring labor demand and supply back into balance in a bid to tame inflation.
 

chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 13:58) Posted: War demand Many are watching as conflict and war expand across the globe, and what those consequences might mean for various sectors of the economy. The U.S. has already outlawed or effectively lobbied allies against selling cutting-edge semiconductor chips to China out of fear that the silicon could be used for precision-guided kits or other advanced military systems. Traditional arms are also back in fashion, with BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESY) announcing this week that it would restart production of M777 howitzer parts for the U.S. Army. Putting it in perspective, the last order that took place was five years ago, but with output back online, BAE expects to ink new contracts for the artillery cannons themselves, given inquiries from more than eight countries Semiconductor Restrictions: The United States has imposed restrictions on the sale of cutting-edge semiconductor chips to China due to concerns that these technologies could be utilized in the development of advanced military systems, including precision-guided kits. This move reflects the intersection of technology, national security, and trade policies. Revival of Traditional Arms Production: BAE Systems, a major defense contractor, has announced its decision to restart the production of M777 howitzer parts for the U.S. Army. The M777 howitzer is a lightweight artillery piece. This revival is noteworthy as it signals a resurgence in the production of traditional arms, indicating an increased demand for such military equipment. Increased Arms Contracts: BAE Systems anticipates securing new contracts for the artillery cannons themselves as a result of restarting production. The company has reportedly received inquiries from more than eight countries, suggesting a growing demand for military equipment amid global geopolitical tensions. Global Impact: The mention of inquiries from multiple countries indicates that the demand for military hardware is not confined to a specific region. The expanding conflict landscape globally appears to be driving interest and demand for defense equipment from various nations. chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 13:55) Posted: Rate uncertainty The latest FOMC minutes provided little insight on the timing of potential rate cuts, with Fed officials acknowledging " an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty" about the economic outlook. " The minutes confirm whatever you wanted to think about the direction of U.S. interest rates before the release," UBS' Paul Donovan said. " I would suggest they are consistent with three rate cuts, starting later than March - but that was my bias before the minutes." Some Fed members also noted that keeping the benchmark rate at an elevated level might be necessary should inflation stay above target, meaning the central bank will continue to base its policy decisions on incoming economic data. Uncertainty Acknowledged: The FOMC minutes indicate that there is an " unusually elevated degree of uncertainty" about the economic outlook. This uncertainty is likely influencing the Federal Reserve' s decision-making process. Rate Cut Possibilities: The information suggests that some market participants, like UBS' Paul Donovan, interpret the minutes as consistent with the possibility of three rate cuts, starting later than March. However, biases may vary among market observers. Inflation Concerns: Some Fed members are considering the option of keeping the benchmark rate at an elevated level if inflation remains above the target. This suggests that inflation dynamics will continue to play a role in shaping the Federal Reserve' s policy decisions. Data-Driven Policy: The central theme is that the Fed appears committed to a data-driven approach, basing its policy decisions on incoming economic data. This is a common practice for central banks, where economic indicators and conditions guide monetary policy adjustments. Investors and market participants will likely continue to closely monitor economic data releases and any further communications from the Federal Reserve to gain insights into the future direction of interest rates.

 

chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 13:55) Posted: Rate uncertainty The latest FOMC minutes provided little insight on the timing of potential rate cuts, with Fed officials acknowledging " an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty" about the economic outlook. " The minutes confirm whatever you wanted to think about the direction of U.S. interest rates before the release," UBS' Paul Donovan said. " I would suggest they are consistent with three rate cuts, starting later than March - but that was my bias before the minutes." Some Fed members also noted that keeping the benchmark rate at an elevated level might be necessary should inflation stay above target, meaning the central bank will continue to base its policy decisions on incoming economic data. Uncertainty Acknowledged: The FOMC minutes indicate that there is an " unusually elevated degree of uncertainty" about the economic outlook. This uncertainty is likely influencing the Federal Reserve' s decision-making process. Rate Cut Possibilities: The information suggests that some market participants, like UBS' Paul Donovan, interpret the minutes as consistent with the possibility of three rate cuts, starting later than March. However, biases may vary among market observers. Inflation Concerns: Some Fed members are considering the option of keeping the benchmark rate at an elevated level if inflation remains above the target. This suggests that inflation dynamics will continue to play a role in shaping the Federal Reserve' s policy decisions. Data-Driven Policy: The central theme is that the Fed appears committed to a data-driven approach, basing its policy decisions on incoming economic data. This is a common practice for central banks, where economic indicators and conditions guide monetary policy adjustments. Investors and market participants will likely continue to closely monitor economic data releases and any further communications from the Federal Reserve to gain insights into the future direction of interest rates. chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 13:52) Posted: Record debt The United States rang in the new year with a lot of red ink as the national debt surpassed $34T for the first time. The gloomy fiscal milestone, reported by the Treasury Department, came as Congress braced for another fight over federal spending. Unless lawmakers can agree on another short-term continuing resolution to fund the government, or pass appropriations bills by Jan. 19 (and others by Feb. 2), the U.S. would face its first federal shutdown since 2019. Not only is the overall balance increasing, but the cost of servicing the national debt is rising at a rapid clip. (137 comments) https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-sgd

 

chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 13:52) Posted: Record debt The United States rang in the new year with a lot of red ink as the national debt surpassed $34T for the first time. The gloomy fiscal milestone, reported by the Treasury Department, came as Congress braced for another fight over federal spending. Unless lawmakers can agree on another short-term continuing resolution to fund the government, or pass appropriations bills by Jan. 19 (and others by Feb. 2), the U.S. would face its first federal shutdown since 2019. Not only is the overall balance increasing, but the cost of servicing the national debt is rising at a rapid clip. (137 comments) https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-sgd   chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 10:02) Posted: global market selloff first time in 2024  after 2020' s covid selloff https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-stocks-asia-slip-024005920.htm

 

chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 10:02) Posted: global market selloff first time in 2024  after 2020' s covid selloff https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-stocks-asia-slip-024005920.html chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 09:56) Posted: power equal to wealth Daim is not listed in any catalogue or index of Asia&rsquo s wealthiest businessmen. But bankers in both Singapore and Malaysia believe that Daim, who served two stints as finance minister &ndash from 1984 to 1991 and from 1999 to 2001 &ndash sits in the same league as other Asian tycoons such as Robert Kuok and Li Ka-shing

 

global market selloff first time in 2024  after 2020' s covid selloff
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-stocks-asia-slip-024005920.html

chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 09:56) Posted: power equal to wealth Daim is not listed in any catalogue or index of Asia&rsquo s wealthiest businessmen. But bankers in both Singapore and Malaysia believe that Daim, who served two stints as finance minister &ndash from 1984 to 1991 and from 1999 to 2001 &ndash sits in the same league as other Asian tycoons such as Robert Kuok and Li Ka-shing. chartiskao      ( Date: 31-Jan-2024 09:51) Posted: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-corruption-daim-zainuddin-macc-investigation-408447