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CHIONG ARH??
When the cycle or market is down, we buy. When the market is up, we sell. In this way, you buy low & sell high. To me, this is the principle of investing. The issue is the fundamental
of the stock, we buy. wyeo.
See CitiDeath and you know where the cycle stand.....Good luck...
like2learn ( Date: 25-Aug-2019 19:12) Posted:
|
not sure where are we in the property cycle ....
Sharing some thoughts n datas:
1. revenue n profits started to fall when the cooling measures were implemented by the authority
in July 2018.
2. its was especially bad in the 1Q of 2019 when revenue fell to $77.4 mil n profit fell to $1.8 mil
1. 2Q' 19 shows a huge improvement over 1Q' 19 with profit improving by 87.2% n revenue
improving by 9.5%, though it was still below 2Q' 18 when the profit was $7.7 mil n revenue
was $121.2 mil.
Notes:
1. It is generally reported that 2nd half is likely to be better than 1st half. If that is
the case than the full year result for Apac Realty shld be in the region of $10.0 mil to $12.0 mil.
Based on 2Q' 19 result, i expect the result to be around $11.5 mil. If the forecast is correct,
the p/e will be around 15 X which is quite good.
2. company has reduced its interim dividend in the 2Q from 2.0 cts to 0.75 cts. I expect them to
declare a final dividend of 1.5 cts which is lower than the 2.5 cts declared in the previous year. If
thats the case the full year dividend will be 2.25 cts. This will give a dividend yielf of 4.5% on current
price of 49.5 cts.
Catalyst:
1. when sentiments in the property market turn positive
2. when oversea investments start showing result
Just sharing ... dyodd
| Quarterly datas | |||||||
| APAC Realty | 1Q-' 18 | 2Q-' 18 | 3Q-' 18 | 4Q' 18 | 1Q' 19 | 2Q-' 19 | 1H |
| revenue | 105,227 | 121,176 | 114,061 | 81,863 | 77,405 | 84,789 | 162194 |
| net profit | 5,917 | 7,693 | 6,543 | 4,092 | 1,777 | 3,327 | 5104 |
1. revenue n profits started to fall when the cooling measures were implemented by the authority
in July 2018.
2. its was especially bad in the 1Q of 2019 when revenue fell to $77.4 mil n profit fell to $1.8 mil
| Comparision 2Q' 19 against 1Q' 19 | ||||
| APAC Realty | 2Q-' 19 | 1Q' 19 | variance | in % |
| revenue | 84,789 | 77,405 | 7,384 | 9.5 |
| profit | 3,327 | 1,777 | 1,550 | 87.2 |
1. 2Q' 19 shows a huge improvement over 1Q' 19 with profit improving by 87.2% n revenue
improving by 9.5%, though it was still below 2Q' 18 when the profit was $7.7 mil n revenue
was $121.2 mil.
Notes:
1. It is generally reported that 2nd half is likely to be better than 1st half. If that is
the case than the full year result for Apac Realty shld be in the region of $10.0 mil to $12.0 mil.
Based on 2Q' 19 result, i expect the result to be around $11.5 mil. If the forecast is correct,
the p/e will be around 15 X which is quite good.
2. company has reduced its interim dividend in the 2Q from 2.0 cts to 0.75 cts. I expect them to
declare a final dividend of 1.5 cts which is lower than the 2.5 cts declared in the previous year. If
thats the case the full year dividend will be 2.25 cts. This will give a dividend yielf of 4.5% on current
price of 49.5 cts.
Catalyst:
1. when sentiments in the property market turn positive
2. when oversea investments start showing result
Just sharing ... dyodd
Look like investors are satisfying with the latest results and supporting the price.
I' ve just bought 2k of Apac at 50c. If it keeps falling I ' ll keep buying, $99m intangible not withstanding. wyeo.
I am not bullish or bearish about the counter. I buy when i think it has future good value
and sell when it is reasonably valued. There is no love or hate here.
Apac Realty is proxy to the Singapore property market. Property market quite bad now
since the cooling measures last year. Property market is cyclical in nature and a time
will come when the sentiments will change. When? I do not know.
Poor sentiments provide opportunity to buy into good companies. Its like in 2014 when
banking stocks slump bcoz of the oil crisis n OCBC came all the way down to below $8.
That was a good time to get into OCBC .. and i did. 2 years later OCBC went up to $14.
I sold. My exposure to Apac is exactly bcoz the property market is weak now bcoz of
the cooling measures.
Another aspect of Apac Realty is its exposure to foreign markets, especially Indonesia,
Thailand and China (Hainan Island). These are new investments. Results may not show
this current year but it likely to be different in the future.
Above are just my views/perspective. I could be wrong but i take a long view in my investment.
Pls dyodd.
and sell when it is reasonably valued. There is no love or hate here.
Apac Realty is proxy to the Singapore property market. Property market quite bad now
since the cooling measures last year. Property market is cyclical in nature and a time
will come when the sentiments will change. When? I do not know.
Poor sentiments provide opportunity to buy into good companies. Its like in 2014 when
banking stocks slump bcoz of the oil crisis n OCBC came all the way down to below $8.
That was a good time to get into OCBC .. and i did. 2 years later OCBC went up to $14.
I sold. My exposure to Apac is exactly bcoz the property market is weak now bcoz of
the cooling measures.
Another aspect of Apac Realty is its exposure to foreign markets, especially Indonesia,
Thailand and China (Hainan Island). These are new investments. Results may not show
this current year but it likely to be different in the future.
Above are just my views/perspective. I could be wrong but i take a long view in my investment.
Pls dyodd.
runaway ( Date: 06-Aug-2019 06:36) Posted:
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A quote taken from the company' s press release on 5 Aug ' 19:
Quote
" Incepted in 1982, APAC Realty&rsquo s wholly-owned subsidiary, ERA Realty, is one of pioneering
real estate brokerages in Singapore. Today, it has grown to become one of the largest with a
network of over 6,800 salespersons, and has continued to demonstrate its leadership in
project marketing and resale transactions.
With its proven track record in marketing and closing transactions across market cycles,
ERA is the preferred marketing agent for new home launches amongst leading developers in
Singapore and the region. As of 13 May 2019, the agency has secured marketing agent
appointments for 42 quality projects with approximately 16,500 new home units scheduled for
sale in FY2019. Of which, 26 projects, accounting for approximately 10,520 units, are
expected to launch in the second half of 2019."
- End of quote -
Quote
" Incepted in 1982, APAC Realty&rsquo s wholly-owned subsidiary, ERA Realty, is one of pioneering
real estate brokerages in Singapore. Today, it has grown to become one of the largest with a
network of over 6,800 salespersons, and has continued to demonstrate its leadership in
project marketing and resale transactions.
With its proven track record in marketing and closing transactions across market cycles,
ERA is the preferred marketing agent for new home launches amongst leading developers in
Singapore and the region. As of 13 May 2019, the agency has secured marketing agent
appointments for 42 quality projects with approximately 16,500 new home units scheduled for
sale in FY2019. Of which, 26 projects, accounting for approximately 10,520 units, are
expected to launch in the second half of 2019."
- End of quote -
I cannot fathom your love and support for this company.
It dropped from $1.20+ Mar18 to current $0.525. 52-week low is $0.44.
and you are still bullish.
Pls take a look at its Bal S. Of the $180 mil Assets, intangible is $99 mil.
If you strip away the $99 mil intangible, the net asset/share is only $0.23.
Intangigle is a subjective valuation. It is unlike a class A building standing in Raffles Place.
It is time to face the reality.
A quote from the company' s press release on 5 Aug ' 19:
Quote:
" ERA Indonesia is a property brokerage pioneer in Indonesia with a network of more than
6,500 agents across its 109 offices, and has an estimated market share of around 10%
of the secondary property market in Indonesia. The brokerage added 17 member brokers
in the year-to-date, and has been appointed as coordinator for 6 residential projects,
namely, South Quarter, Branz @ Mega Kuningan, 57 Promenade, 1 Park Homes,
1 Park Hamilton and Vasanta Innopark.
Following the conclusion of Indonesia&rsquo s presidential elections, the government implemented
measures to stimulate the property sector and its multiplier effect on related sectors such
as cement, electronics and furniture which will contribute to the country&rsquo s overall economic
growth.2 A series of tax incentives for luxury properties, premium condominiums, and mass
market housing have been announced, complementing steps taken by Indonesia&rsquo s central
bank to relax the loan-to-value (&ldquo LTV&rdquo ) and financingto-value (&ldquo FTV&rdquo ) ratios for mortgage
transactions effective August 2018. Furthermore, Indonesia&rsquo s government has earmarked
US$412 billion to rebuild the country over the next five years, from 2020 to 2024.3 With 60%
of this spend allocated to transportation infrastructure, industry watchers expect the country
to benefit from enhanced connectivity and higher economic growth. "
- End of quote -
Quote:
" ERA Indonesia is a property brokerage pioneer in Indonesia with a network of more than
6,500 agents across its 109 offices, and has an estimated market share of around 10%
of the secondary property market in Indonesia. The brokerage added 17 member brokers
in the year-to-date, and has been appointed as coordinator for 6 residential projects,
namely, South Quarter, Branz @ Mega Kuningan, 57 Promenade, 1 Park Homes,
1 Park Hamilton and Vasanta Innopark.
Following the conclusion of Indonesia&rsquo s presidential elections, the government implemented
measures to stimulate the property sector and its multiplier effect on related sectors such
as cement, electronics and furniture which will contribute to the country&rsquo s overall economic
growth.2 A series of tax incentives for luxury properties, premium condominiums, and mass
market housing have been announced, complementing steps taken by Indonesia&rsquo s central
bank to relax the loan-to-value (&ldquo LTV&rdquo ) and financingto-value (&ldquo FTV&rdquo ) ratios for mortgage
transactions effective August 2018. Furthermore, Indonesia&rsquo s government has earmarked
US$412 billion to rebuild the country over the next five years, from 2020 to 2024.3 With 60%
of this spend allocated to transportation infrastructure, industry watchers expect the country
to benefit from enhanced connectivity and higher economic growth. "
- End of quote -
A quote from the company' s press release on 5 Aug' 19:
" ERA Thailand is the largest home selling network in Thailand with a sales force of more
than 400 real estate agents. Backed by a strong reputation and track record with leading
developers, ERA Thailand has secured marketing rights for 18 projects with 10,697
residential units in total. Located across the country, these projects include The Line
Wongsawang, Artisan Ratchada, The Regent Orchid Talad Plu, Wyndham Garden Irin,
and Chamonix."
- End of quote -
" ERA Thailand is the largest home selling network in Thailand with a sales force of more
than 400 real estate agents. Backed by a strong reputation and track record with leading
developers, ERA Thailand has secured marketing rights for 18 projects with 10,697
residential units in total. Located across the country, these projects include The Line
Wongsawang, Artisan Ratchada, The Regent Orchid Talad Plu, Wyndham Garden Irin,
and Chamonix."
- End of quote -
I am quite happy w Apac results. The 2Q result was better than I expected. I had
expected a profit of $2 plus millions but it turn out to be $3 plus. See figure below:
As seen from above, against 1Q the result has improved by 87.2% though it' s down 56.8% against last year.
The profit against last year was expected as the cooling measures were introduced in July last year.
Since then there was a downward trend in profits for the following 3 quarters. If the 2Q trend profits
can be maintained or improved, it will be a fairly good year for Apac given the negative effects of the cooling.
Above is just my views n i could be wrong.
Am vested and am looking at the company in terms of 2 years or longer. Am also looking forward to
contributions from their overseas investments in Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, Hainan Island n 4 other countries.
Pls dyodd.
expected a profit of $2 plus millions but it turn out to be $3 plus. See figure below:
| APAC Realty | 1Q-' 19 | 2Q-' 19 | % |
| revenue | 77,405 | 84,789 | 9.5 |
| net profit | 1,777 | 3,327 | 87.2 |
| APAC Realty | 2Q-' 18 | 2Q-' 19 | % |
| revenue | 121,176 | 84,789 | -30.0 |
| net profit | 7,693 | 3,327 | -56.8 |
As seen from above, against 1Q the result has improved by 87.2% though it' s down 56.8% against last year.
The profit against last year was expected as the cooling measures were introduced in July last year.
Since then there was a downward trend in profits for the following 3 quarters. If the 2Q trend profits
can be maintained or improved, it will be a fairly good year for Apac given the negative effects of the cooling.
Above is just my views n i could be wrong.
Am vested and am looking at the company in terms of 2 years or longer. Am also looking forward to
contributions from their overseas investments in Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, Hainan Island n 4 other countries.
Pls dyodd.
From APAC results ->
11. A commentary at the date of this announcement of thesignificant trends andcompetitive conditions of the industry in which the group operates and any known factors or events that may affect the group in the next reporting period and the next 12 months.
The Singapore government introduced a fresh round of property cooling measures on 5 July 2018 where the additional buyer&rsquo s stamp duty was raised and loan-to-value ratio was reduced. This affected and will continue to affect the underlying demand for residential properties in Singapore. The Singapore property market may also be affected by any adverse global economic conditions and changes in mortgage interest rates.
The total number of unsold private residential units have been increasing in the year 2018 and reached 35,538(including ECs) as at 30 June2019. The vacancy rate of completed private residential units have came down to 6.4% as at 30 June 2019, coming down from a high of 8.9% as at 30 June 2016.
Apart from the 35,5381unsold units (including ECs) with planning approval as at 30 June 2019, there is a potential supply of 7,100 units (including ECs) from Government Land Sales (GLS) sites and awarded en-bloc sale sites that have not been granted planning approval yet. They comprise (a) about 6,500 units from awarded GLS sites and Confirmed List sites that have not been awarded yet, and (b) about 600 units from awarded en-bloc sale sites
11. A commentary at the date of this announcement of thesignificant trends andcompetitive conditions of the industry in which the group operates and any known factors or events that may affect the group in the next reporting period and the next 12 months.
The Singapore government introduced a fresh round of property cooling measures on 5 July 2018 where the additional buyer&rsquo s stamp duty was raised and loan-to-value ratio was reduced. This affected and will continue to affect the underlying demand for residential properties in Singapore. The Singapore property market may also be affected by any adverse global economic conditions and changes in mortgage interest rates.
The total number of unsold private residential units have been increasing in the year 2018 and reached 35,538(including ECs) as at 30 June2019. The vacancy rate of completed private residential units have came down to 6.4% as at 30 June 2019, coming down from a high of 8.9% as at 30 June 2016.
Apart from the 35,5381unsold units (including ECs) with planning approval as at 30 June 2019, there is a potential supply of 7,100 units (including ECs) from Government Land Sales (GLS) sites and awarded en-bloc sale sites that have not been granted planning approval yet. They comprise (a) about 6,500 units from awarded GLS sites and Confirmed List sites that have not been awarded yet, and (b) about 600 units from awarded en-bloc sale sites
runaway ( Date: 05-Aug-2019 21:31) Posted:
|
You are absolutely right !
I received a flyer in my letter box today. In it, the agent is advertising 18 new projects under construction (I am sure there are more), and none is disclosing no of units sold (likely a very small % so better keep quiet).
The property market is drowned with excessive supply.
Local property market is going through a slow down. Sales transactions likely to continue to stay low going fwd.
Should avoid property counters until the sky clear.
May take at least 2 years imo..
Dyodd.
furthermore div drop more than half...bye bye fr prop tis yr
like2learn ( Date: 05-Aug-2019 19:32) Posted:
|
APAC results :
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/APAC%20Realty%20-%201H%202019%20Results%20Announcement_5%20August%202019.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=573150
EPS(1H2019) drop by 62.4% to 1.44 compared to same period last yr.
NAV is now 39.2
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/APAC%20Realty%20-%201H%202019%20Results%20Announcement_5%20August%202019.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=573150
EPS(1H2019) drop by 62.4% to 1.44 compared to same period last yr.
NAV is now 39.2
APAC Realty shares included under the Central Provident Fund Board&rsquo s CPF Investment Scheme &ndash Ordinary Account (&ldquo CPFIS&rdquo )
Btw, Apac Realty nav is 40.7 cts