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We still have to go on with our lives. Nothing is more scary than gena cancer.

Pro_trader ( Date: 14-Aug-2023 19:08) Posted:

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3231005/risk-chinas-financial-sector-laid-bare-state-backed-trust-firm-misses-us19-million-wealth-management

This is going to be a big big problem.

thx for your sharing.

i m surprised semicon only accounts for 30%, i tot it' s much higher given the impact to its financials.
but with trade tensions, will there be past levels(i.e. pre-trade tensions/pre-covid) of China' s semiconductor demand ? and why didn' t use the past few years to try to diversify more aggressively into other sectors like medical which is more defensive ? insufficient expertise ? margin not attractive ?
the div payout is also disappointing and is very late compared to other companies...dun understand why.

cedricyang ( Date: 14-Aug-2023 00:32) Posted:

ISDN just released its 1H 2023 results. There are the obvious and the inconspicuous points. Let me cover both and allow investors to decide whether to buy in or sell off.

&zwnj For an introduction, we should all know that share price movements are a reflection of the future of the company. Often, share price moves ahead of news, and takes into account what is discounted/accounted and what is the difference in expectations. This is an important concept when it comes to understanding this article, or your future investments in the future.

&zwnj 1) On the obvious reasons, based on year to year comparisons, ISDN&rsquo s revenue dropped by 11.3%, with a decline of 58.6% PATS. This can be broadly explained by the depreciation of yuan (RMB) and the downturn of semiconductor industry.

&zwnj As ISDN&rsquo s industrial automation core business is diversified across sectors, semicon accounts for roughly 30% of its revenue, mainly in SEA. These are big MNCs set up in SEA which counts on OEM&rsquo s backend support, which are in turn ISDN&rsquo s customers. When the semicon downcycle started in late 2022, big semicon MNCs pushed back their order books, which resulted in pushed back orders of OEMs manufacturers, which resulted in push back orders of ISDN&rsquo s revenue in supporting those OEMs. Note that the key word is &ldquo pushback&rdquo . Meaning to say that ISDN did not lose these customers, rather the order was delayed till demand picks up.

&zwnj RMB depreciation from start of 2022 to date is a 12% decline. This would affect the profit reporting of ISDN, which reports in SGD. Though RMB depreciated significantly, we should also be aware that often times, forex is not one way. SGD appreciated across main basket of currencies and that contributed to the accelerated decline of RMB/SGD. This would mean that ISDN&rsquo s revenue was wiped out by 8-12% accounting for the YoY comparison. However, we need to understand that this is an unrealized loss due to SGD reporting. The RMB cash is still sitting in bank awaiting for appreciation to come, which is my next point.

&zwnj 2) On the subtle hints, we need to look into sequential comparison. Often investors use YoY, which is useful in a non-volatile climate. However with economic cycles, it is prudent to use sequential comparisons to highlight a potential start of a reversal. And I will highlight this in detail.

&zwnj ISDN saw fundamental sequential growth return in China in 1H2023, up +4.3% from2H2022 and up +1.3% YoY. On a constant currency basis, China half-year revenues were up +7.8% sequentially and up +12.5% YoY. This greatly signifies that the widely reported slowdown of Chinese economy is bottoming soon.
I have at least 10 reliable ground information that semiconductor inventory is drying up, and these companies are planning for restock. That would bring about a demand in semicon very soon, together with demand in AI, industry 4.0, and general macroeconomic trend in industrial automation and software.

&zwnj Overall profitability for the Group improved sequentially, with PAT improving +30.4% and Profit Attributable to Shareholders improving +29.0% compared to 2H2022. This further adds to the above picture of a recovery.

&zwnj 3) In conclusion, as investors, we need to ask ourselves these questions:
a) Where will the growth be in the next 5-10 years? Europe? USA? Asia? Then place your bets there.
b) What will be the macro tailwind in aging, expensive population, with high demand for quality, consistency, and big data productivity?
c) Will semicon ever recover? On average, semicon cycles take 18 months. If the decline started in 4Q 2022, we could expect a recovery late 2023 or early 2024. This could be accelerated by the huge demand stated above.
d) Will RMB ever recover? If it remains stagnant, on YoY, there will not be any reported losses. If it recovers, it will be reported as unrealised gains instead. RMB is now at a lower level than Chinese stock market turbulence in 2015-2016. However since then, China&rsquo s economy has grown 5-7% GDP on average per year.

&zwnj Thus if we think that in the next 5-10 years, high quality growth will centre around Asia (China + SEA), Industrial automation is one of the key drivers in the future, Semicon and RMB will eventually recover, rest assured that the earnings will definitely follow.

&zwnj All these points are one growth engine of ISDN. The company also has another growth engine, the hydropower plants. With the recent commercialisation of 24.6MW hydropower adding full year PATS earning of circa $5.5M, the company is working to realise shareholder ROE value, together with the fact that ISDN still has 140MW worth of concessions remaining.

&zwnj Have faith.

NAV is just theoretical value. its didnt factor in economy ,sentiment and stability.

Pro_trader ( Date: 14-Aug-2023 13:26) Posted:

Nav is 45 cents? How was this number derived? If there is a breakup sale, do you honestly think that the NAV of 45 cents can be achieved?

like2learn ( Date: 12-Aug-2023 20:20) Posted:

but NAV around 45 cents, so if one believe in the long term prospects, shd have some margin of safety at 38 cents right ?

somemore if buy @ 38 cents, how much lower can it go ? if my memory is right, i think I read somewhere the company has mentioned that it has all along been profitable ....

note : i am not saying can buy @ 38 cents. juz my tots for discussion.

Nav is 45 cents? How was this number derived? If there is a breakup sale, do you honestly think that the NAV of 45 cents can be achieved?

like2learn ( Date: 12-Aug-2023 20:20) Posted:

but NAV around 45 cents, so if one believe in the long term prospects, shd have some margin of safety at 38 cents right ?

somemore if buy @ 38 cents, how much lower can it go ? if my memory is right, i think I read somewhere the company has mentioned that it has all along been profitable ....

note : i am not saying can buy @ 38 cents. juz my tots for discussion.

Most investors can only see the good in their stock and often end up holding when results are not up to expectations or see all the silver lining in the results and reinforce their own self hypnosis. So I am not surprised by all the positive talk etc. I am a pure technical trader and the price action on ISDN looks f.ugly. Period. Until the trend stops going down and it finds some support, there is no point being a hero to catch this falling knife. Those who are already long need to do their own risk management. IF fundamentals are still sound, then by all means holdout for a rebound. But would it be a case where you bought at $1, it drops to 0.40 then rebound to 0.60 and one is still out of the money? Can the capital be better deployed? Your money your call. You mouth, your own talk.
My view of China is bearish. I think it is similar to the start of Japan just before it lost a decade. The parallels are there. If the government pump the Chinese economy and support property, then it will move towards a Japan lost decade. If they bite the bullet, there will be a lot of pain and one cannot ignore the fact that many companies will go kaput. And what can China do? They are already mired in debt and this is the reason why unlike the 2008 crisis where China pulled the world out, it is not hamstrung. China debt has already exceeded US' s and so while they keep saying will support the economy, what have they done in terms of real solid action or pump priming? Zilch! Talk is cheap. Show me the money then I believe.

Text book and what' s already published..

hypewhy ( Date: 14-Aug-2023 11:17) Posted:

Sound very standard way of answering. Still unconvinced

cedricyang ( Date: 14-Aug-2023 00:32) Posted:

ISDN just released its 1H 2023 results. There are the obvious and the inconspicuous points. Let me cover both and allow investors to decide whether to buy in or sell off.

&zwnj For an introduction, we should all know that share price movements are a reflection of the future of the company. Often, share price moves ahead of news, and takes into account what is discounted/accounted and what is the difference in expectations. This is an important concept when it comes to understanding this article, or your future investments in the future.

&zwnj 1) On the obvious reasons, based on year to year comparisons, ISDN&rsquo s revenue dropped by 11.3%, with a decline of 58.6% PATS. This can be broadly explained by the depreciation of yuan (RMB) and the downturn of semiconductor industry.

&zwnj As ISDN&rsquo s industrial automation core business is diversified across sectors, semicon accounts for roughly 30% of its revenue, mainly in SEA. These are big MNCs set up in SEA which counts on OEM&rsquo s backend support, which are in turn ISDN&rsquo s customers. When the semicon downcycle started in late 2022, big semicon MNCs pushed back their order books, which resulted in pushed back orders of OEMs manufacturers, which resulted in push back orders of ISDN&rsquo s revenue in supporting those OEMs. Note that the key word is &ldquo pushback&rdquo . Meaning to say that ISDN did not lose these customers, rather the order was delayed till demand picks up.

&zwnj RMB depreciation from start of 2022 to date is a 12% decline. This would affect the profit reporting of ISDN, which reports in SGD. Though RMB depreciated significantly, we should also be aware that often times, forex is not one way. SGD appreciated across main basket of currencies and that contributed to the accelerated decline of RMB/SGD. This would mean that ISDN&rsquo s revenue was wiped out by 8-12% accounting for the YoY comparison. However, we need to understand that this is an unrealized loss due to SGD reporting. The RMB cash is still sitting in bank awaiting for appreciation to come, which is my next point.

&zwnj 2) On the subtle hints, we need to look into sequential comparison. Often investors use YoY, which is useful in a non-volatile climate. However with economic cycles, it is prudent to use sequential comparisons to highlight a potential start of a reversal. And I will highlight this in detail.

&zwnj ISDN saw fundamental sequential growth return in China in 1H2023, up +4.3% from2H2022 and up +1.3% YoY. On a constant currency basis, China half-year revenues were up +7.8% sequentially and up +12.5% YoY. This greatly signifies that the widely reported slowdown of Chinese economy is bottoming soon.
I have at least 10 reliable ground information that semiconductor inventory is drying up, and these companies are planning for restock. That would bring about a demand in semicon very soon, together with demand in AI, industry 4.0, and general macroeconomic trend in industrial automation and software.

&zwnj Overall profitability for the Group improved sequentially, with PAT improving +30.4% and Profit Attributable to Shareholders improving +29.0% compared to 2H2022. This further adds to the above picture of a recovery.

&zwnj 3) In conclusion, as investors, we need to ask ourselves these questions:
a) Where will the growth be in the next 5-10 years? Europe? USA? Asia? Then place your bets there.
b) What will be the macro tailwind in aging, expensive population, with high demand for quality, consistency, and big data productivity?
c) Will semicon ever recover? On average, semicon cycles take 18 months. If the decline started in 4Q 2022, we could expect a recovery late 2023 or early 2024. This could be accelerated by the huge demand stated above.
d) Will RMB ever recover? If it remains stagnant, on YoY, there will not be any reported losses. If it recovers, it will be reported as unrealised gains instead. RMB is now at a lower level than Chinese stock market turbulence in 2015-2016. However since then, China&rsquo s economy has grown 5-7% GDP on average per year.

&zwnj Thus if we think that in the next 5-10 years, high quality growth will centre around Asia (China + SEA), Industrial automation is one of the key drivers in the future, Semicon and RMB will eventually recover, rest assured that the earnings will definitely follow.

&zwnj All these points are one growth engine of ISDN. The company also has another growth engine, the hydropower plants. With the recent commercialisation of 24.6MW hydropower adding full year PATS earning of circa $5.5M, the company is working to realise shareholder ROE value, together with the fact that ISDN still has 140MW worth of concessions remaining.

&zwnj Have faith.

was removed. anyway he kena blacklist . let move on. let focus on bigger picture.

US reported supplier inflation rebounded, thus rates expected to remain high, which is negative for stocks. Then China reported very weak bank loan data, set back on expectation of economy recovery.

ISND will suffer bcz of china economic

hypewhy ( Date: 11-Aug-2023 21:10) Posted:

Someone Kena whack big time over there.

Pro_trader ( Date: 11-Aug-2023 09:42) Posted:

Oh now that you raised this, I recalled reading about this over at IN - someone pointed out that the Chinese numbers cannot be believed and it was faulty to base an analysis on such.

Sound very standard way of answering. Still unconvinced

cedricyang ( Date: 14-Aug-2023 00:32) Posted:

ISDN just released its 1H 2023 results. There are the obvious and the inconspicuous points. Let me cover both and allow investors to decide whether to buy in or sell off.

&zwnj For an introduction, we should all know that share price movements are a reflection of the future of the company. Often, share price moves ahead of news, and takes into account what is discounted/accounted and what is the difference in expectations. This is an important concept when it comes to understanding this article, or your future investments in the future.

&zwnj 1) On the obvious reasons, based on year to year comparisons, ISDN&rsquo s revenue dropped by 11.3%, with a decline of 58.6% PATS. This can be broadly explained by the depreciation of yuan (RMB) and the downturn of semiconductor industry.

&zwnj As ISDN&rsquo s industrial automation core business is diversified across sectors, semicon accounts for roughly 30% of its revenue, mainly in SEA. These are big MNCs set up in SEA which counts on OEM&rsquo s backend support, which are in turn ISDN&rsquo s customers. When the semicon downcycle started in late 2022, big semicon MNCs pushed back their order books, which resulted in pushed back orders of OEMs manufacturers, which resulted in push back orders of ISDN&rsquo s revenue in supporting those OEMs. Note that the key word is &ldquo pushback&rdquo . Meaning to say that ISDN did not lose these customers, rather the order was delayed till demand picks up.

&zwnj RMB depreciation from start of 2022 to date is a 12% decline. This would affect the profit reporting of ISDN, which reports in SGD. Though RMB depreciated significantly, we should also be aware that often times, forex is not one way. SGD appreciated across main basket of currencies and that contributed to the accelerated decline of RMB/SGD. This would mean that ISDN&rsquo s revenue was wiped out by 8-12% accounting for the YoY comparison. However, we need to understand that this is an unrealized loss due to SGD reporting. The RMB cash is still sitting in bank awaiting for appreciation to come, which is my next point.

&zwnj 2) On the subtle hints, we need to look into sequential comparison. Often investors use YoY, which is useful in a non-volatile climate. However with economic cycles, it is prudent to use sequential comparisons to highlight a potential start of a reversal. And I will highlight this in detail.

&zwnj ISDN saw fundamental sequential growth return in China in 1H2023, up +4.3% from2H2022 and up +1.3% YoY. On a constant currency basis, China half-year revenues were up +7.8% sequentially and up +12.5% YoY. This greatly signifies that the widely reported slowdown of Chinese economy is bottoming soon.
I have at least 10 reliable ground information that semiconductor inventory is drying up, and these companies are planning for restock. That would bring about a demand in semicon very soon, together with demand in AI, industry 4.0, and general macroeconomic trend in industrial automation and software.

&zwnj Overall profitability for the Group improved sequentially, with PAT improving +30.4% and Profit Attributable to Shareholders improving +29.0% compared to 2H2022. This further adds to the above picture of a recovery.

&zwnj 3) In conclusion, as investors, we need to ask ourselves these questions:
a) Where will the growth be in the next 5-10 years? Europe? USA? Asia? Then place your bets there.
b) What will be the macro tailwind in aging, expensive population, with high demand for quality, consistency, and big data productivity?
c) Will semicon ever recover? On average, semicon cycles take 18 months. If the decline started in 4Q 2022, we could expect a recovery late 2023 or early 2024. This could be accelerated by the huge demand stated above.
d) Will RMB ever recover? If it remains stagnant, on YoY, there will not be any reported losses. If it recovers, it will be reported as unrealised gains instead. RMB is now at a lower level than Chinese stock market turbulence in 2015-2016. However since then, China&rsquo s economy has grown 5-7% GDP on average per year.

&zwnj Thus if we think that in the next 5-10 years, high quality growth will centre around Asia (China + SEA), Industrial automation is one of the key drivers in the future, Semicon and RMB will eventually recover, rest assured that the earnings will definitely follow.

&zwnj All these points are one growth engine of ISDN. The company also has another growth engine, the hydropower plants. With the recent commercialisation of 24.6MW hydropower adding full year PATS earning of circa $5.5M, the company is working to realise shareholder ROE value, together with the fact that ISDN still has 140MW worth of concessions remaining.

&zwnj Have faith.

but NAV around 45 cents, so if one believe in the long term prospects, shd have some margin of safety at 38 cents right ?

somemore if buy @ 38 cents, how much lower can it go ? if my memory is right, i think I read somewhere the company has mentioned that it has all along been profitable ....

note : i am not saying can buy @ 38 cents. juz my tots for discussion.

You might want to review.

tccroy ( Date: 10-Aug-2023 11:25) Posted:

I have confidence in this stock. I will stay put. This morning I added some on @ 38 cents

leroy55 ( Date: 10-Aug-2023 10:01) Posted:

tccroy, there is a self proclamined cowboy coward tell us to think positive since 2021 after he left sri trang counter. have not we learn our lesson?

Quite chui but no profit guidance leh...

FrancisLim ( Date: 17-Jul-2023 13:04) Posted:

financial results early August. If it does not perform due to China doldrum, then profit guidance will be out...

Someone Kena whack big time over there.

Pro_trader ( Date: 11-Aug-2023 09:42) Posted:

Oh now that you raised this, I recalled reading about this over at IN - someone pointed out that the Chinese numbers cannot be believed and it was faulty to base an analysis on such.

leroy55 ( Date: 11-Aug-2023 09:32) Posted:

the biggest schoolboy mistake he make was telling us the chinese government report was correct compare to bank analyst report.

Oh now that you raised this, I recalled reading about this over at IN - someone pointed out that the Chinese numbers cannot be believed and it was faulty to base an analysis on such.

leroy55 ( Date: 11-Aug-2023 09:32) Posted:

the biggest schoolboy mistake he make was telling us the chinese government report was correct compare to bank analyst report.

Pro_trader ( Date: 10-Aug-2023 21:16) Posted:

Excellent means that he writes a bullish story? nah I think quite alot of confimation bias. He wrote until so confident but share price now toh.

the biggest schoolboy mistake he make was telling us the chinese government report was correct compare to bank analyst report.

Pro_trader ( Date: 10-Aug-2023 21:16) Posted:

Excellent means that he writes a bullish story? nah I think quite alot of confimation bias. He wrote until so confident but share price now toh.

like2learn ( Date: 10-Aug-2023 15:51) Posted:

after reading the announcement, i also think chui .... hoping for some master to enlighten ....
naiively thinking hydro commercialize after waiting so long means ho say liao, so accepted the scrip div, alamak .... *sob sob* ... sigh ....
i think got one master Cedric Yang who does excellent analysis on isdn... hope master come back and teach ....

Excellent means that he writes a bullish story? nah I think quite alot of confimation bias. He wrote until so confident but share price now toh.

like2learn ( Date: 10-Aug-2023 15:51) Posted:

after reading the announcement, i also think chui .... hoping for some master to enlighten ....
naiively thinking hydro commercialize after waiting so long means ho say liao, so accepted the scrip div, alamak .... *sob sob* ... sigh ....
i think got one master Cedric Yang who does excellent analysis on isdn... hope master come back and teach ....

Nothing new.

SGX companies ceos and directors very high opinion of themselves.

Company chiong or companu tank, what do they care.

They will enjoy their high salaries and suck the company dry, after that maybe ask

for rights issue.

Or, if company super undervalued, launch a low ball takeover.

FrancisLim ( Date: 10-Aug-2023 09:04) Posted:

Senior Mgt and the BOD should take a cut in their remuneration, or take a higher proportion of paid out in scrips.
Easier to keep on sounding optimistics and every quarter is a steep plunge without affecting their pockets.

after reading the announcement, i also think chui .... hoping for some master to enlighten ....
naiively thinking hydro commercialize after waiting so long means ho say liao, so accepted the scrip div, alamak .... *sob sob* ... sigh ....
i think got one master Cedric Yang who does excellent analysis on isdn... hope master come back and teach ....

Am not surprise if this creep back to its 2020 price

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