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QAF is moving up nicely .....is it the 4c dividned or the recent pig swine issue .......
Gardenia bread seem to be doing well .....notice it sellout well by later evening.
Anyone got any update ?
Gardenia bread seem to be doing well .....notice it sellout well by later evening.
Anyone got any update ?
Yes, this counter is still paying dividends. Yield is more than 5% if based on today' s price. The price got hammered in the last year as the results were terrible due to Rivelea (their subsidiary in Australia) and a fire in their warehouse last year. While there is nothing exciting about their prospects, agreed that it is still fundamentally ok. After all, their bakery business is well established in the region and probably the only one of its kind listed on SGX.
Somebody mentioned it is a turnaround bet, and I tend to agree. I have not been playing this counter since QAF 1.20 days. I believe there is a reason why it was hammered to such a Low price, although it is still fundamentally OK. Not suggesting a Low-baller bid attempt by some dirty hands, but at its current price, certainly looked a good bet. I hope QAF is still paying dividends.
Watching......
Watching......
Comfort factors
- Strong balance sheet. Cash balance of S$60 million.
- Operating cash flow is still positive
- Gross margins are respectable at 39%
- Defensive business (Bread + Pork are " commodities" in nature)
- Dividend yield is good and management did not decrease the payout despite the performance of the company.
- Corporate governance of QAF is still strong. I like that it is transparent in the directions of the company. It also mentions that Australia' s pork cannot be exported to China despite the Swine flu affecting supplies in China. The optimists will think that it is potentially an area of growth for Rivelea if the regulations change.
Concerns
- Rivelea business is not picking up. Commentary indicates some stablising of the pork prices but that does not equate to recovery. Will swine flu hits Australian' s pork? That will be a big hit to Rivelea.
- Commentary indicates that management is looking at acquisitions. Will this erode the balance sheet strength? This ties in with the point below which is below the most worrying piece.
- How competent is the management? Share forums have been lambasting the management for their inexperience and the performance of the company in the past few years has not helped the cause of the management.
- How sustainable is the dividend? From the financial statements (and without much calculations), the payout is higher than the net profits and the operating cash flow. If company does not turn around the results in FY2019, dividends may need to be cut.
- Gardenia bread has been a staple in Singapore' s supermarkets for the longest time. However, on my regular visits to the supermarkets, I cannot help but have a preference for the bread from Auric Pacific (Sunshine). The marketing from Sunshine just seem sleeker.
- Bakery business seems to be going well in Phillipines which is great because it is a growing market and the economy seems to be doing well. However, we have to keep in mind that Phillipines is a country with a higher degree of political risk.
https://sgxmoatinvesting.blogspot.com/
Looks like you have a wealth of experience.
Hope you will contribute more posts here so that many of the members here can benefit.
Hope you will contribute more posts here so that many of the members here can benefit.
bayduck ( Date: 27-Feb-2019 12:23) Posted:
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QAF is more akin to a turnaround bet, so trailing PE is not really way to value it.
Further, 9M18 profits already down 81%, and 4Q18 profits are up, that' s why FY profits only down 71%. To me, compared to a trailing 12M PE of 50x, this piece of information is more relevant when assessing a turnaround.
A conservative normalized EPS (assuming turnaround does happen) is more like 5 to 7 cents, which means an implied PE of 10-15x.
Further, 9M18 profits already down 81%, and 4Q18 profits are up, that' s why FY profits only down 71%. To me, compared to a trailing 12M PE of 50x, this piece of information is more relevant when assessing a turnaround.
A conservative normalized EPS (assuming turnaround does happen) is more like 5 to 7 cents, which means an implied PE of 10-15x.
spore1 ( Date: 26-Feb-2019 20:26) Posted:
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QAF up 5.7% on turn-around set of Q4 results..........
FY net profit tank 71%. EPS is 1.4 cents .. PE 50x..
Starship ( Date: 26-Feb-2019 20:12) Posted:
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4Q 2018 vs 4Q 2017
The Group&rsquo s share of profits of joint venture increased by 45% or $0.9 million to $3.1 million in 4Q 2018 from $2.2 million in 4Q 2017, due to higher sales.
Group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (&ldquo EBITDA&rdquo ) increased by 56% or $5.4 million to $15.1 million for 4Q 2018 from $9.7 million for 4Q 2017 due to an increase in contribution from Bakery segment of $5.5 million and Primary Production segment of $1.7 million, partly offset by a decrease in Distribution & Warehousing segment of $1.7 million. Bakery segment performed better in 4Q 2018 as compared to 3Q 2018. The performance of the Primary Production and Distribution & Warehousing segments remained weak in 4Q 2018.
Group profit before tax (&ldquo PBT&rdquo ) increased by 637% or $4.9 million from $0.8 million for 4Q 2017 to $5.7 million for 4Q 2018. The increase was mainly attributable to higher contribution from the Bakery segment and the absence of one-off professional fees, offset by Rivalea&rsquo s performance and operating losses, including provisions in connection with the ammonia leak of $1.4 million and upgrading of the Group&rsquo s warehouse at Fishery Port Road.
Group profit after tax (&ldquo PAT&rdquo ) increased by 718% or $3.7 million to $4.2 million for 4Q 2018 as compared to $0.5 million for 4Q 2017. Group income tax expense increased by 475% or $1.2 million to $1.5 million for 4Q 2018 as compared to $0.3 million for 4Q 2017. This is due partially to Rivalea deciding not to recognise deferred tax assets arising from its FY 2018&rsquo s tax losses in light of the challenging trading conditions for the Primary Production segment.
Group profit attributable to owners of the parent (&ldquo PATMI&rdquo ) is $4.1 million for 4Q 2018 as compared to $2.2 million for 4Q 2017.
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/QAF%20Limited_FY2018%20Results%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=544973
Dividends
(a) Current financial period reported on Any dividend declared? Yes
Proposed Final Dividend Dividend
Cash
4 cents per ordinary share
The QAF Scrip Dividend Scheme will not apply to the proposed final dividend.
QAF results looks good. A huge turnarounf compared to same quarter last year.
Looks like some unseen hands/ears must have known this before hand as the share price had been creeping up vewrey recently.
And looks like Fook Hai Building is going enbloc and QAF owns some units there:
" In Singapore, the Company owns 5 strata office units comprising 5.5% of the total share value of the development at Fook Hai Building, 150 South Bridge Road. It has a total floor area of approximately 8,000 sq ft and a remaining leasehold of 51 years. These office units have a combined net book value of $3.6 million as at 31 December 2018. In early 2019, a collective sale committee was appointed to pursue an en-bloc sale of the property. The process will take some time and there is no certainty of a sale outcome at this time. This is still at an early stage and 80% approval has to be secured to proceed. The Board will decide on the sale at the appropriate time when the reserve price is determined."
Thanks - hope the divvie blogger and others who rode on the euphoria generated had also taken action .... but then ownself talk to ownself only when it is beneficial ah..... leave the followers behind, but then, disclaimer is there, ownself talk to ownself lol
KAMAL0883 ( Date: 30-Jan-2019 11:43) Posted:
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smart move !
a counter can drop from $1.30 to 0.60 must be something wrong with the company
a counter can drop from $1.30 to 0.60 must be something wrong with the company
$warrior ( Date: 29-Jan-2019 23:09) Posted:
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Good move bro. I sold my off much earlier when I saw that it was tanking down from the $1+ position.... inspite of all the drumming and hallabaloo from a very famous dividend blogger who said that it could go up to as high as $3 + or more! Heng ah. Hopefully others who had also bought at that opportunistic time have managed to get out without much financial damage.
tonylim ( Date: 29-Jan-2019 15:32) Posted:
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Sold all liao to cut loss to make from other stocks such as Thaibev
tonylim ( Date: 29-Jan-2019 15:30) Posted:
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HuatHuat8888
Thanks for the info. No wonder the stock dropped so much lately. BB pushed to a high of 73 to sell I hink
Thanks for the info. No wonder the stock dropped so much lately. BB pushed to a high of 73 to sell I hink
huathuat88888 ( Date: 25-Jan-2019 16:43) Posted:
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Dont know. I didnt add after sold half.
They want to expand their factories in philippines.
Need capex.
But how much can they sell ? In luzon manila and visayas cebu maybe can sell in the malls .
But other places how to sell ? Traditional bakeries selling 1 bread at sgd 5 cts 10 cts 15 cts. By loaves they are nice and cheap too.
Rivalea dont think will do well this qtr as australia pork prices crisis.
Apricot ( Date: 25-Jan-2019 16:36) Posted:
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Was QAF fined 50M in the Philippines over multiple tax charges in thier 2017 4 quarter announcement. I guess we all do know Philipinos well. Rivalea is the largest pork producer in Australia, naturally it will be targeted by animal right activist.
huathuat88888 ( Date: 12-Jan-2019 16:01) Posted:
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Thanks !
nqing87 ( Date: 22-Jan-2019 20:54) Posted:
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SSH=substantial shareholder (and it is considered to be one when they have more than 5% shareholdings such that whenever they make any share transaction, they must announce in sgx)
tonylim ( Date: 22-Jan-2019 12:11) Posted:
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