ComfortDelGro    Last:1.29   -

ComfortDelGro fundamentally strong but price weak

HEY, I totally agreed that the analyst reports are only for reference . But I dun expect they so free to spend so much time doing research analysis and write a report to support their own investments...

Clipper      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 16:15) Posted: The report is the Analyst' s point of view.Sometimes the company is a major client of the bank, it would be challenging for Analyst not to ' support' their major client business. ​ Personally, I have been misled by the Analyst report before. The tone of the Analyst report can change within a qtr or a year when the actual results reported start telling a different outcome. In a bull market, or a new fast growing company, most times there are little disputes over the report accuracies and it seems everyone have the correct foresight/analysis. That is not the case in disrupted business or company business growth hitting a plataeu or faces new competitive challenges and needs a change on business strategy. ​ Another angle is the motive of the report as you rightfully pointed out. This one you need some experince to know if its a sell side report or.... ​ As always, we should do verifications through alternative channels and not solely reply on a analyst report. BetterStill      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 15:32) Posted: Why all the banks make a buy call dornthis counter? What are their motives ? Angry bird!

 

Long term this is still a good counter to hang on to.
Up and price in share price is normal and every investment by a company come in a risk so no big deal for comfort and check how much they have in cash what?s 200 plus million to CDG? Big players off load and reload is normal so now is a good price to buy this transport giant

 

Maybank $2.4, Philip $2.69, UOB $2.25. CIMB is the only one asking for hold. The rest no update report for Dec.

destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 15:59) Posted: Which bank? DBS & CIMB put hold. After DBS came up with it' s research report, support disappeared already. Only Maybank Kim eng' s analysts called for buy only. Maybank, lul, you know I know, good enough. CMI. BetterStill      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 15:32) Posted: Why all the banks make a buy call dornthis counter? What are their motives ? Angry bird!

 

I think the 51% acquisition is still subject to regulatory spproval and trchnically is not firm and Comfort's statement a week ago was expressing intent? Ouch....now let's see how this investigation would influence the landscape. Probably would hear from comfort soon. Haha. Now comfort needs comfort...

 

currently, looks like Grab is growing stronger and bolder and continue to expand their business and offerings. The Grab investors are supporting the growth and intend to make it a success story for SE Asia PVH. If CDG is hoping for it to go away or get weaker, it will be a long shot. CDG will have to ' sweat it out' and its Taxi business continue to struggle/tussle with Grab and Uber. The LCR business is not that great. My neighbour just return his rental car after 6 months contract and decided to buy a second hand car where he has complete freedom to drive for Uber or Grab at his own pace and time.
From what I see, CDG is on defensive now, and I do not see it improving any sooner.

GIP689      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 16:52) Posted: i think that for Cdg, a win is not necessarily to go back to the past where it was largely the dominant player in the segment. Instead a win is to be one of 3-4 large players in the enlarged market of phvs+taxis. Its earnings from the taxi+phv leasing business to be similar to its old taxi business. That i think would be a win, with growth coming from its other businesses i.e. public transport. Rates for the phv leasing business are likely to trend upwards i believe, when the market consolidates and the larger ones such as Cdg have more pricing power, and when the subsidies from uber/grab run out as they focus on becoming profitable. i also believe the pool of drivers would shrink when this happens, and again become largely a pool of professional drivers i.e. taxis+full time phvs  Clipper      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 14:57) Posted: agreed with you that CDG looks like the desparate party going into the alliance with UBER. I see very little CDG get out of the deal despite the huge sum of $ spent. It shows their desparation to quickly get a deal before year end (as they previously annouced). ​ CDG should focus on their strength with their existing fleet size, $, experience drivers and craft out a premium service at regular taxi price. Take the taxi ride service to the next level. Today, there are many passengers who still want to take good service (clean, safe and reliable) ride service. Uber and Grab cannot consistently provide good service due to their start up mode and large scale drivers in take. Grab and Uber Drivers quit because they were frustrated with low value/$ trips they have to take.  ​ I am not vested now as I cannot see a winning path forward for CDG

 

It depends on how you perceive value in today s market. Among ' blue chips' in sg today for example, it earns slightly more than starhub every quarter, but is priced > 1bn less.
I think the debt in lcr are the vehicle loans, i would be more concerned if the vehicles were not financed with any car loans.   

 

Yes, that would make a lot of sense. The only drawback is the $295m for  a 51% stake in a loss-making subsidiary company with 1 billion debt.
I don' t think the price is cheap or overprice. Probably fair, depends on how you weigh the pros and cons.
Good for existing shareholders to hold, but doesn' t justify it as a valued buy right now.

GIP689      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 16:52) Posted: i think that for Cdg, a win is not necessarily to go back to the past where it was largely the dominant player in the segment. Instead a win is to be one of 3-4 large players in the enlarged market of phvs+taxis. Its earnings from the taxi+phv leasing business to be similar to its old taxi business. That i think would be a win, with growth coming from its other businesses i.e. public transport. Rates for the phv leasing business are likely to trend upwards i believe, when the market consolidates and the larger ones such as Cdg have more pricing power, and when the subsidies from uber/grab run out as they focus on becoming profitable. i also believe the pool of drivers would shrink when this happens, and again become largely a pool of professional drivers i.e. taxis+full time phvs  Clipper      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 14:57) Posted: agreed with you that CDG looks like the desparate party going into the alliance with UBER. I see very little CDG get out of the deal despite the huge sum of $ spent. It shows their desparation to quickly get a deal before year end (as they previously annouced). ​ CDG should focus on their strength with their existing fleet size, $, experience drivers and craft out a premium service at regular taxi price. Take the taxi ride service to the next level. Today, there are many passengers who still want to take good service (clean, safe and reliable) ride service. Uber and Grab cannot consistently provide good service due to their start up mode and large scale drivers in take. Grab and Uber Drivers quit because they were frustrated with low value/$ trips they have to take.  ​ I am not vested now as I cannot see a winning path forward for CDG

 

i think that for Cdg, a win is not necessarily to go back to the past where it was largely the dominant player in the segment. Instead a win is to be one of 3-4 large players in the enlarged market of phvs+taxis. Its earnings from the taxi+phv leasing business to be similar to its old taxi business. That i think would be a win, with growth coming from its other businesses i.e. public transport. Rates for the phv leasing business are likely to trend upwards i believe, when the market consolidates and the larger ones such as Cdg have more pricing power, and when the subsidies from uber/grab run out as they focus on becoming profitable. i also believe the pool of drivers would shrink when this happens, and again become largely a pool of professional drivers i.e. taxis+full time phvs 

Clipper      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 14:57) Posted: agreed with you that CDG looks like the desparate party going into the alliance with UBER. I see very little CDG get out of the deal despite the huge sum of $ spent. It shows their desparation to quickly get a deal before year end (as they previously annouced). ​ CDG should focus on their strength with their existing fleet size, $, experience drivers and craft out a premium service at regular taxi price. Take the taxi ride service to the next level. Today, there are many passengers who still want to take good service (clean, safe and reliable) ride service. Uber and Grab cannot consistently provide good service due to their start up mode and large scale drivers in take. Grab and Uber Drivers quit because they were frustrated with low value/$ trips they have to take.  ​ I am not vested now as I cannot see a winning path forward for CDG. destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 13:33) Posted: Grab are funded by some prominent investors with deep pockets, such as  Temasek Holdings,  Alibaba Group,  Google Venture  and  Baidu Inc. The ride-hailing companies are also not content with simply being  ride-hailing service providers &ndash some are already looking at things such as logistics, motorcycle sharing, carpooling, car rentals, and others. They just obtained anothernS$3.4b funding this year. http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/south-east-asias-grab-get-us25-billion-extra-firepower-battle-uber Uber and comfort' s alliance is only on the surface where uber benefits more, uber is still taking a cut from traditional taxi' s market share. The war of attribution has just begun. Comfort is the desperate party trying to make things happen. After DBS analysts throw out their research report, no BBs dare to buy in now.

 

The report is the Analyst' s point of view.Sometimes the company is a major client of the bank, it would be challenging for Analyst not to ' support' their major client business. ​ Personally, I have been misled by the Analyst report before. The tone of the Analyst report can change within a qtr or a year when the actual results reported start telling a different outcome. In a bull market, or a new fast growing company, most times there are little disputes over the report accuracies and it seems everyone have the correct foresight/analysis. That is not the case in disrupted business or company business growth hitting a plataeu or faces new competitive challenges and needs a change on business strategy.
​ Another angle is the motive of the report as you rightfully pointed out. This one you need some experince to know if its a sell side report or....
​ As always, we should do verifications through alternative channels and not solely reply on a analyst report.

BetterStill      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 15:32) Posted: Why all the banks make a buy call dornthis counter? What are their motives ? Angry bird!

 

Which bank? DBS & CIMB put hold. After DBS came up with it' s research report, support disappeared already.
Only Maybank Kim eng' s analysts called for buy only. Maybank, lul, you know I know, good enough. CMI.

BetterStill      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 15:32) Posted: Why all the banks make a buy call dornthis counter? What are their motives ? Angry bird!

 

I think the shortists are selling......

Tommy12356      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 08:39) Posted: The short, mid and long term chart show still down trend dunno who is selling, but i think retailer and cpf holder are not ... seba240698      ( Date: 13-Dec-2017 21:09) Posted: Already drop so much, stilll will drop? I hope it is bottoming out.

 

Temasek invested only in the first out of I think 6 rounds of funds raising (including loans) of Grab. It didn't invest in the subsequent rounds. The last round after the $2.7 b funds was a loan given by banks. Grab has been in Singapore for almost 5 years and in Indonesia (competing with Go-jek) also about the same duration. Somehow I feel that investors are losing patience with Grab though I may be wrong, lets see how many more rounds of sponsorship or even loans Grab can garner moving forward....

GIP689      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 14:10) Posted: Grab could be another money losing investment for Temasek. As for the others, their managers must have some fiduciary duty too to stop investing in loss making companies. Uber targets an ipo next year and will also soon require the discipline of a listed company, i.e. stop the losses. Partnering with cdg in sg is one of many alliances they go into in Asia to start turning things around.  Anyway, time will tell if the market recognizes that the price is v low.

 

I think those buy calls are based on obsolete info.data . Could be 3 months old.

 

Why all the banks make a buy call dornthis counter? What are their motives ? Angry bird!

 

agreed with you that CDG looks like the desparate party going into the alliance with UBER. I see very little CDG get out of the deal despite the huge sum of $ spent. It shows their desparation to quickly get a deal before year end (as they previously annouced).
​ CDG should focus on their strength with their existing fleet size, $, experience drivers and craft out a premium service at regular taxi price. Take the taxi ride service to the next level. Today, there are many passengers who still want to take good service (clean, safe and reliable) ride service. Uber and Grab cannot consistently provide good service due to their start up mode and large scale drivers in take. Grab and Uber Drivers quit because they were frustrated with low value/$ trips they have to take. 
​ I am not vested now as I cannot see a winning path forward for CDG.

destinykraze      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 13:33) Posted: Grab are funded by some prominent investors with deep pockets, such as  Temasek Holdings,  Alibaba Group,  Google Venture  and  Baidu Inc. The ride-hailing companies are also not content with simply being  ride-hailing service providers &ndash some are already looking at things such as logistics, motorcycle sharing, carpooling, car rentals, and others. They just obtained anothernS$3.4b funding this year. http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/south-east-asias-grab-get-us25-billion-extra-firepower-battle-uber Uber and comfort' s alliance is only on the surface where uber benefits more, uber is still taking a cut from traditional taxi' s market share. The war of attribution has just begun. Comfort is the desperate party trying to make things happen. After DBS analysts throw out their research report, no BBs dare to buy in now.

 

That is not the point. This mean no matter what goes on, comfort' s net profit can only move in 1 direction in the mid to long term.

GIP689      ( Date: 14-Dec-2017 14:10) Posted: Grab could be another money losing investment for Temasek. As for the others, their managers must have some fiduciary duty too to stop investing in loss making companies. Uber targets an ipo next year and will also soon require the discipline of a listed company, i.e. stop the losses. Partnering with cdg in sg is one of many alliances they go into in Asia to start turning things around.  Anyway, time will tell if the market recognizes that the price is v low.

 

Grab could be another money losing investment for Temasek. As for the others, their managers must have some fiduciary duty too to stop investing in loss making companies. Uber targets an ipo next year and will also soon require the discipline of a listed company, i.e. stop the losses. Partnering with cdg in sg is one of many alliances they go into in Asia to start turning things around.  Anyway, time will tell if the market recognizes that the price is v low. 

 

Grab are funded by some prominent investors with deep pockets, such as  Temasek Holdings,  Alibaba Group,  Google Venture  and  Baidu Inc. The ride-hailing companies are also not content with simply being  ride-hailing service providers &ndash some are already looking at things such as logistics, motorcycle sharing, carpooling, car rentals, and others.
They just obtained anothernS$3.4b funding this year.
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/south-east-asias-grab-get-us25-billion-extra-firepower-battle-uber

Uber and comfort' s alliance is only on the surface where uber benefits more, uber is still taking a cut from traditional taxi' s market share.

The war of attribution has just begun. Comfort is the desperate party trying to make things happen.
After DBS analysts throw out their research report, no BBs dare to buy in now.

 

Instead of long, wait for it to bounce up and CFD short again and over at lower price.. safer than buy low sell high..

kerier      ( Date: 13-Dec-2017 09:51) Posted: wow congrats. there should be some more downside.  leongyan      ( Date: 13-Dec-2017 09:34) Posted: Short at 2.07 yesterday with CFD and wait to cover back..

 

The short, mid and long term chart show still down trend
dunno who is selling, but i think retailer and cpf holder are not ...

seba240698      ( Date: 13-Dec-2017 21:09) Posted: Already drop so much, stilll will drop? I hope it is bottoming out.