Post Reply
261-280 of 2510
Somemore thats old news.....
I donno i have sold my alliance
bluekelah ( Date: 17-Mar-2018 12:29) Posted:
|
Lithium stocks slide after SQM gets approval to ramp up production
https://www.ft.com/content/9a0f5c3a-fc7a-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167Chile approves increase in lithium quota for Albemarle
https://www.reuters.com/article/chile-lithium-albemarle/chile-approves-increase-in-lithium-quota-for-albemarle-idUSL2N1QR1P2World top producers in Chile are now cleared for ramping up (doubling) production of lithium and for the first time supply will likely outpace demand by 2019.
Will Alliance survive the eventual massive dip in Lithium prices as this oversupply comes onto the market? Look at what happened to iron ore prices and the resulting hit small producers took in Australia when prices drop from $150++ to $50?
@risktaker, dun forget to factor in that the lithium underground could only be worth half or even one third of the price this time next year. Can alliance dig it all out in 1 year? How much will profit be hit if lithium prices drop 25% this year?
If that happen... it will be a $0.90 stock just for the lithium under the ground...profit comes in it will be $1.50
Clipper ( Date: 16-Mar-2018 16:44) Posted:
|
Thnaks bro. So resource upgrade is production capacity improvement with a 2nd DMS machine to expand the overall lithium output and increase shipment qty. That should be good for the company, but it also require some capital $ since DMS do not come cheap abide the time to set it up and get running. Nevertheless, as investor it is a good to know this resource upgrade in the coming months.
risktaker ( Date: 16-Mar-2018 16:29) Posted:
|
This coming resource upgrade or the next one will very likely determine the greenlight for another DMS circuit "mirror of the current 1"
So it has to be huge... to allow the development of 2nd DMS to bring production over 400k...
That is the only reason why resource upgrade has been delay..
Remember ....it takes 9months to built up so to run the 2nd DMS mid 2019... the resource upgrade should be ready b4 aug 2018....
Clipper ( Date: 16-Mar-2018 16:13) Posted:
|
bro risktaker, what is resource upgrade ? Vested and waiting for production shipments and revenue and profit to come in, this will really drive the share price.
risktaker ( Date: 15-Mar-2018 16:13) Posted:
|
No vol on taw.... buy sell too thin... last time i buy 400k shares i got to took everyone out... and when i dump people panic and sell with me... their players on asx not so big...
chengwh1 ( Date: 16-Mar-2018 14:30) Posted:
|
That said I also hold TAW because there were a few months when it was discounted compared to AMAL (17c)
chengwh1 ( Date: 16-Mar-2018 14:30) Posted:
|
Forex risk and discounted valuation of AMAL, though some of that has been justified by the management until very recently.
chengwh1 ( Date: 16-Mar-2018 14:30) Posted:
|
Why don' t you guys buy TAW directly in the ASX rather than buying Mineral Resources here in the SGX ?
Grow with a junior miner like AMAL.
Galaxy is an adult already,... hence,... 2- or 3- baggers would be quite out of reach already,....
Galaxy is an adult already,... hence,... 2- or 3- baggers would be quite out of reach already,....
risktaker ( Date: 15-Mar-2018 16:23) Posted:
|
Sorry.... got the est profit wrong..it is AUD 500 x 220k = 110m/2
55M net profit
55M net profit
risktaker ( Date: 15-Mar-2018 16:13) Posted:
|
Basically the Chinese are mopping up all the lithium off takes and now they are also taking over the companies.
Aussie News :
Emerging lithium miner Altura Mining has confirmed it is in takeover talks with its Chinese offtake partner and major shareholder Shaanxi J& R Optimum Energy.
Alliance Mineral will soon attract the bigger boys&rsquo interests once they can deliver the first shipment !
Aussie News :
Emerging lithium miner Altura Mining has confirmed it is in takeover talks with its Chinese offtake partner and major shareholder Shaanxi J& R Optimum Energy.
Alliance Mineral will soon attract the bigger boys&rsquo interests once they can deliver the first shipment !
Obvious right remember to buy b4 april
risktaker ( Date: 15-Mar-2018 16:13) Posted:
|
Galaxy is 1.3 Billion in market cap and producing 190K per annum
Alliance + Tawana is less than 500 million.... which will produce 220k by year end 2018...
Common sense.... buy on dip... especially when market crash or correct... becos as time goes by .... there will be no seller below 40c...
My view.only...
Alliance + Tawana is less than 500 million.... which will produce 220k by year end 2018...
Common sense.... buy on dip... especially when market crash or correct... becos as time goes by .... there will be no seller below 40c...
My view.only...
We.expect a significant resource upgrade happening in sometime early april.
And 2 more resource upgrade happening in July/Aug and last one By Nov/Dec
By late August 2018, company will ramp up to initial nameplate rates of 155,000 tonnes per annum.
We forecasting that production will increase to 220,000 to 250,000 tonnes per annum by Dec 2018 as additional fine circuit kick in.
Alliance Annual lithium production rate: 220k tonnes per annum
Galaxy Annual lithium production rate : 190K tonnes from latest qtly report.
Annual alliance profit based on 220k tonne
Estimated Net profit on the low side AUD $688 per tonne x 220k tonne = AUD $151 million / 2 (50% JV)
= 75 million AUD pure profit
In 2019 they build 2nd DMS (mirror of the 1st one) which will bring production level up to 440k tonne per annum.
Personal recommendation not professional advise: we believe Alliance should trade around 90c+ by year end 2018.
2019 our target is $2.00
Good luck
And 2 more resource upgrade happening in July/Aug and last one By Nov/Dec
By late August 2018, company will ramp up to initial nameplate rates of 155,000 tonnes per annum.
We forecasting that production will increase to 220,000 to 250,000 tonnes per annum by Dec 2018 as additional fine circuit kick in.
Alliance Annual lithium production rate: 220k tonnes per annum
Galaxy Annual lithium production rate : 190K tonnes from latest qtly report.
Annual alliance profit based on 220k tonne
Estimated Net profit on the low side AUD $688 per tonne x 220k tonne = AUD $151 million / 2 (50% JV)
= 75 million AUD pure profit
In 2019 they build 2nd DMS (mirror of the 1st one) which will bring production level up to 440k tonne per annum.
Personal recommendation not professional advise: we believe Alliance should trade around 90c+ by year end 2018.
2019 our target is $2.00
Good luck
HKLim6 ( Date: 15-Mar-2018 13:51) Posted:
|
Yes, hopefully not a long delay but still beyond the original schedule of q1
cichlidnuts ( Date: 15-Mar-2018 13:42) Posted:
|
Source from hotcopper stated that resource upgrade is due in April
HKLim6 ( Date: 15-Mar-2018 13:25) Posted:
|
Looks like the reserve upgrade will be delayed beyond q12018
sheerluck ( Date: 15-Mar-2018 11:53) Posted:
|