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Hi Bro Edwin, i just checked the URA website and found that there were many transcation for Goodwood Residence this year from March till November. I think they have cleared most of the unsold units this year. Do you still think if they might still delist? I saw HL made purchase from open market recently.
edwinjup ( Date: 16-Oct-2015 20:17) Posted:
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Stock like that also kena pressed down n down. Px very controlled. Hope it' s not people controlling the stock writing some stories cos they now want to reverse the trend. For a long time I' ve been observing the stock. It' d come down in the morning, small volume, but wld be sold down somehow to around 179-182. Then at the end of the day, closing wld always be around 184-186. Only in recent days px was brought down to 180-182 level, prehaps to create the chart pattern needed to show it' s bottoming. As a further pt, the stock has been on a downtrend (trending down from around 210 to 180) ever since announcing the property transaction in the PRC that was gonna net it a gain of close to half billion SGD.
spore1 ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 23:03) Posted:
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Guocoland seems the price is hitting the bottoming sign.
http://sporeshare.blog spot.sg/2015/12/guocoland.html
Dec 2015 staring GL straight in the eye .... too quiet for comfort. What are the quack magicians doin' huh?
U cld be right. All these BBs seem to have an unlimited stream of tricks up their sleeves. But, somehow, my gut feel is that HL coys (whether spore or malaysian controlled) will not delist. Maybe, like u' ve pointed out, they' ll just distribute the properties around to the various (pte) coys they own, fatten the bottomline further n then do a big capital distribution to shareholders. Of course the end result is the bulk of the excess cash flows back to them But then minorities like us will stand to gain too.
nngeeh ( Date: 28-Oct-2015 21:54) Posted:
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I won' t be surprised that the price was pressed down so that if Guocoland really make an offer to delist, the offer price will be more acceptable. So far, the offer price for our delisted counter is normally 20~30% higher than the last traded price. Maybe, by pressing down, it' ll help to reduce the offer price?
For the past 3 years, there are many companies that choose to delist to avoid paying the QC - Soilbuild (delist and relist again), Allgreen, Popular, SC Global, Keppel land. There are also others that sold the unsold units to their parent or subsidiary like Hiap Hoe but the buyer will need to pay 15% stamp duty.
Qanghoo ( Date: 28-Oct-2015 20:15) Posted:
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Only 92 lots done today n px got forced down by up to 4c. Here seems easy to bring down a counter. Maybe people are up to something forcing the px to < 1.80 again (happened before recent result announcement) to collect cheap. To retrace upwards after that?
If both Keppel and Popular bought out the company, there is also a high possibility that Guccoland might do that. If they can use related/affiliated company to bypass the regulation, Keppel might use that to avoid the buyout which drained them of cash when the O& G industry is doing badly. Furthermore, the regulators will easily identify that, and they would have done so much earlier ... and not wait until dec to move the unsold units to related/ affiliated company.
It' s risk vs reward. The current price is already low (lowest is 1.78). If the buyout doesn' t occur in Dec, the downside is limited. However, if they do that, they will need to offer at least $3 (NAV) ....or more. It' s more than 50% gain. If they offer higher, the gain is much higher. If not, the current price would already factor the fines ... and they have more than enough cash to handle it. Furthermore, the current price doesn' t seems to factor the supper good Q1 result.
They will use another related/affiliated company to buy over. In the end it will stay on the same hands.
If you look at their 1Q report, the coy has 2billion in cash. If i' m hold 80% of the holding, and if i base on the assumption that they will offer to buy the remaining 20% at $4 (from 20% x 1,109,768,343 (number of shares) x $4), it' ll work out around 883 million.
It does make a lot of sense to privatise it using 880 millin, and then have access to the 2 Billion cash. Why will they want to pay 100M each year ... as i don' t think they can clear the unsold unit in the next 1~ 2years.
Even Popular did it to avoid the fines. What Bro Edwin said definitely make sense.
Qanghoo ( Date: 16-Oct-2015 22:05) Posted:
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I also believe, like u, worth around 4SGD.
Qanghoo ( Date: 16-Oct-2015 22:04) Posted:
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Brother, u very imaginative. Although I don' t think they will delist, I' ll be very happy if they do cos I have been accummulating GL recently.
edwinjup ( Date: 16-Oct-2015 21:51) Posted:
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Just need another $ 500m...hl family can delisting guocoland....why need to pay $100 m fine and more fine coming....ll
edwinjup ( Date: 16-Oct-2015 21:40) Posted:
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They already hold 80%.....dont think they wan to pay the fine ..(more fine will be coming).....maybe they will delist..and relist as new co without sg property ......lol
Qanghoo ( Date: 16-Oct-2015 21:16) Posted:
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Result looks good. Even without the one-off 480mil gain from the sale of the PRC subsidiary. earnings came in at around 70 mil. Seems that Leedon residence is selling well. Other one-off items for Fy16 account will include fair value gains from TPagar (if completed before close of their FY) n gain from sale of a Malaysian development (to sister coy HL Bank). Maybe FY16 EPS can be close to 1SGD after adding all the one-offs. But if they have to pay the 100 mil fine, that cld be a drag. Still, I doubt if they will delist. Maybe they might do some ' engineering' like what City Dev did with some unsold properties? (I' m not familiar with it cos I didn' t follow it through). Afterall, the two coys are still ka ki nang.
edwinjup ( Date: 16-Oct-2015 20:17) Posted:
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Unsold GuocoLand?s Goodwood Residence could bring a fine of $104.7m. So...it would "force " guocoland to delist before dec 2015 ??.2years after top.....damn good.1 q.result even without special items.....so think can wait for some good news before year end.......cheers....possible another keppel buyout...i prefer $3.88 or $4.88....lol
Qanghoo ( Date: 21-Aug-2015 12:16) Posted:
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Any brothers read the news this GLL made 580 mil selling a Beijing property? That translates into eps of 50c+. Also, according to the coy, their upmkt development at Leedon very well received n high % sold. So, maybe some special div coming. Good for QLC to cover his losses in Ezion too.
Ray12888 ( Date: 30-Jul-2015 20:05) Posted:
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Good News coming out of Guocoland and this website http://www.masterstocktrader.com.sg/category/blog
recommend a buy.
I am going to buy some tomorrow. Huat ah!!!
Turning round the corner
Guocoland is due for re-rating. Securing ownership of the Beijing Dongzhimen (DZM)project would re-focus investors&rsquo attention to the potential value unlocking upside rather than on the drag from possible provision for cost write-offsthat hadhampered past share price performance. Our scenario study values the stock at a base and bull case RNAV of S$3.84-4.63/share, if DZM is valued on an &lsquo as-is&rsquo or completed basis. Our target price of S$2.88is based on a 25% discount to our base case RNAVof S$3.84.
The group is on track to achieve a more sustainable ROE by expanding recurrent income base from FY17. Room to move up the value chain to fund management exists in mid-term.
Overhang removed
With the legal ownership resolved, investors can now re-focus on upside from unlocking value at DZM and not on the possible provision for write-off of costs incurred. Management is in the process of evaluating options including divesting DZM on &lsquo as-is&rsquo basis or to complete and revalue the project, especially when property values have appreciated since the site was acquired in 2007. Our analysis values the stock at a RNAV of S$3.84- 4.63/share, on the above bases.
Growing recurring income
Recurrent income will grow by FY17 when Tanjong Pagar Centre completes and is on track to derive 30% of operating profit from recurring sources (vs < 10% now). Pre-leasing of office and retail space area are ongoing, with some commitments secured. On the residential front, it expects to continue selling down inventory at its 3 Singapore projects and launching Changfeng Residences in Shanghai in3Q15.
GLM is set to enjoy strong earnings and NAV expansion when Damansara City completes in 2H16. We estimate Guocoland&rsquo s share of surplus from this mega RM2.5bn GDV project to be cS$182m. In the long run, we expect Guocoland to benefit from the knock-on boost from GLM&rsquo s rising NAV as the latter continues to develop its low cost residential landbank. In addition, with GLM&rsquo s share price trading below book value and Guocoland&rsquo s significant 67.94% ownership, another avenue to upstream value could be to consider potentially privatizing GLM.
Trades at 38% below RNAV
Guocoland is trading at a 38% discount to our base case RNAV of S$3.84, which pegs GLM at current share price. There is upside room to Guocoland&rsquo s RNAV if GLM&rsquo s share price discount to book NAV narrows or if surplus from DZM is greater than our base case assumptions. On earnings, our FY16 numbers do not reflect any proceeds from asset sales in China. Key risk to our RNAV estimates is if DZM&rsquo s actual cost exceeds our assumptions or lower- than-expected market value achieved.
looks like more upside with NAV at $2.63.. gd luck dyodd
Last:2.42 Vol:282k
+0.02
7. Net asset value (for the issuer and Group) per ordinary share based on issued share capital of
the issuer at the end of the:-
(a) current financial period reported on and
(b) immediately preceding financial year.
Group
As At
Company
As At
31/03/2015 30/06/2014 31/03/2015 30/06/2014
S$ S$ S$ S$
Net asset value per ordinary share based
on existing issued share capital after
adjusting for the shares held by the Trust
for ESOS
2.63
2.36
1.71
1.78