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Powell has been behind the curve way too long now desperate to do catch-up. He was so blind and hope hope that inflation will go away(transitory), any other economists can be a better Fed Chairman. With a USD90B buybacks via repos, reduce balance sheet ie QT he has no other tools except a strong USD and interest rates to bring economy back to ground level. Holy Trinity-strong economy, strong currency, higher interest rate? Miracle?

TikTalk      ( Date: 28-Aug-2022 10:59) Posted: Jackson Hole - " The tongue is mightier than the sword." The written word/speech is more effective than the rate hike as a tool for commuunication a point. Stock market rallied after the June and July rate hike, the Fed must be furious with it. So the short speech by J Powell is as good as another rate hike of 50bps        that is not offic1ally added to the Fed Funds.I mean interest rate decision has been so predictable, everyone knew when and how much they are going to do before their schedule announcement. So he changed a few words and the way he phrase it the market went bonkers while the contexts are essentially the same. If he is so hawkist, will they raise 100bps in September? My gas is no, probably 75bps, and then 50bps the next one, therefore if what I anticipated today turn out correctly then when I look back what does this speech means? Nothing, except of course the surprise element that has been missing was there on Friday.  Will see. Anyway just pen down my thoughts for future reference. Kam xia humida for reading. All the  bre@st.

 

Jackson Hole - " The tongue is mightier than the sword."
The written word/speech is more effective than the rate hike as a tool for commuunication a point.

Stock market rallied after the June and July rate hike, the Fed must be furious with it. So the short
speech by J Powell is as good as another rate hike of 50bps        that is not offic1ally added
to the Fed Funds.I mean interest rate decision has been so predictable, everyone knew when
and how much they are going to do before their schedule announcement. So he changed a few words
and the way he phrase it the market went bonkers while the contexts are essentially the same.

 

Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole wipe out 1 over trillion $ of financial assets, ok after all
he is the ' father of interest rate' . Unlike his usual academic speech it was very clear thus easy for
a layman  like myself to understand the urgency to bring down inflation, painful for some who will
lose their job, still he did not use the word recession butter instead said a period of lower growth
may be needed. Apart from the frenzy in the stock market, 10 year US Treasury yield remain relatively
calm,  rose only 4bps for the week, whereas the 2yr t-note rose 16bps as the yield curve  remain inverted.

 

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Sour & Sweet Sexurities Inc

Did the Dow Jones Industrial Index went into a Bear Market?

Nasdaq went into a BEAR MARKET, its was down 34.2% peak-to-trough.
S+P 500 briefly went into a Bear Market, down 24.5% peak-to-trough.

Dow Jones only had a Market Correction(define by a 10 to 20% down move) hence
recent up move and the first of the 3 indices to have traded above its 200ma is a continuation
of the Bull Market.

Therefore unless in the future Dow fail to make new high and follow by a more than 20% decline than we
can say Dow has entered a Bear Market. Just setting the term use correctly.

We are all guilty of using the word bear market rather loosely.
Some even calling for Market Crash. Often as a result we became bias or confuse at times
like this thus unable to see market recovery, unable to participate in the early part when market
turn, dare not buy. 

to be continue....go lunch first
All the bre@st.

 

Many thanks for your valuable advice.

TikTalk      ( Date: 17-Aug-2022 16:20) Posted: Samudera.....See shaded areas, each time it traded below the 20ma(red ma line) it will correct for awhile, therefore let it find a base first then see how...wait for it to come down bear the 100ma(green ma line) CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 17-Aug-2022 14:15) Posted: Bro TT, What do you think of Samudera? Is it bullish? After XD price came down lower, today she moved up.

 

correction..." come down near..."

TikTalk      ( Date: 17-Aug-2022 16:20) Posted: Samudera.....See shaded areas, each time it traded below the 20ma(red ma line) it will correct for awhile, therefore let it find a base first then see how...wait for it to come down bear the 100ma(green ma line) CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 17-Aug-2022 14:15) Posted: Bro TT, What do you think of Samudera? Is it bullish? After XD price came down lower, today she moved up.

 

Samudera.....See shaded areas, each time it traded below the 20ma(red ma line) it will correct for
awhile, therefore let it find a base first then see how...wait for it to come down bear the
100ma(green ma line)

CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 17-Aug-2022 14:15) Posted: Bro TT, What do you think of Samudera? Is it bullish? After XD price came down lower, today she moved up.

 

I' m looking at below $1.

CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 17-Aug-2022 14:15) Posted: Bro TT, What do you think of Samudera? Is it bullish? After XD price came down lower, today she moved up.

 

Bro TT,

What do you think of Samudera? Is it bullish?

After XD price came down lower, today she moved up. 
 

 

Sis Cucina, the monkey must have learn from Tarzan, Lord Of The Apes
They are master of swing trade,  swing here swing there, swing until kong kong.

cucina      ( Date: 15-Aug-2022 20:56) Posted: But Bro TT, we hv been told repeatedly its monkey business, not meh? Aiyoh.  Tio con. TikTalk      ( Date: 13-Aug-2022 13:18) Posted: " market is a discounting machine and had priced in a good amount of bad news..." Below message on July 21st I had sense several positive changes, one was price action, as I saw serveral days when it was weak during Asia and Europe hours butter the NYorkers took it up to closed higher, again I have to look up my messages to be certain I made the correct  recollection of my thoughts.....well, will update further when free or feel good. All the bre@st.

 

But Bro TT, we hv been told repeatedly its monkey business, not meh?

Aiyoh.  Tio con.

TikTalk      ( Date: 13-Aug-2022 13:18) Posted: " market is a discounting machine and had priced in a good amount of bad news..." Below message on July 21st I had sense several positive changes, one was price action, as I saw serveral days when it was weak during Asia and Europe hours butter the NYorkers took it up to closed higher, again I have to look up my messages to be certain I made the correct  recollection of my thoughts.....well, will update further when free or feel good. All the bre@st.

 

Same chart, hasnt change any trendlines drawn...still failing at 
resistance or broke down B...just like A, was only delayed.
This is a down sector, see Medtec result. River has done well
already relatively to others, unfortunately so cant expect much
until or unless clean room demand can replace pandemic need
which is highly unlikely in the near term.

 

" market is a discounting machine and had priced in a good amount of bad news..."

Below message on July 21st I had sense several positive changes, one was price action, as I
saw serveral days when it was weak during Asia and Europe hours butter the NYorkers took it up to
closed higher, again I have to look up my messages to be certain I made the correct 
recollection of my thoughts.....well, will update further when free or feel good.

All the bre@st.

 

The IF' s & BUTT' s report brought to you by Nabeh & Heng Sexurities P/L...a wholly
owned subsidiary of Sour & Sweet Sexurities Inc...

Amazing isn' t it?

In the last couple of month at the height of inflation fear, most news telling you how bad this inflation is,
will be and how different from previous ones and dated donkey years back blah blah, at the same time
the market was bottoming out, hahaha....I once said during covid-19, record number of 
infections daily being reported while the market rallied, the same question asked repeatedly.
Why is the market going up with so much bad news? Today, people wonder why market going
up when inflation is still high and Fed is going hike rate again, recession blah..well, if you are
the one asking, I say again, the stock market is a discounting machine. Ok, if I can find screen shot will
come back here to post again.

These last few days up move is even much more stronger than I thought, that I must admit. Oh my,
wa de tian.

All the bre@st

 

The IF' s & BUTT' s report brought to you by Nabeh & Heng Sexurities P/L...a wholly
owned subsidiary of Sour & Sweet Sexurities Inc..." If aunty has two balls you call her uncle."

This 3 charts say what le?
Nasdaq went down around 34% and recovered around 20%
S+P went down around 24% and recovered around 14%
Dow went down around 20% and recovered around 11%

Nasdaq more volatile, high risk high return.
Dow more stable, less risk less returns.
Means the young and hungry will play Nasdaq stocks while the
middle age group will play S+P and the Pioneer or Merdeka generation
will play Dow stocks?

Sunday fun sharing.....in the end wu kong kana boh kong alsopaiseh.

Happy weekend all!

 

...continue from earlier post...

The IF' s & BUTT' s report brought to you by Nabeh & Heng Sexurities P/L...
" If aunty has two balls you call her uncle."

Nasdaq, S+P & Dow fibonacci retracement, here you see S+P & Dow has retrace more
than 38.2% while Nasdaq is near 38.2% only. Therefore If we just look at fibonacci retracement
then we may think Nasdaq underperformed the other two, quite a different view or comment one
will make from my earlier posting just looking at May/June high, tio bo?

So, whats the moral of the story? Don' t anyhow listen to others because we don' t know how indepth
their analysis were. See one thing say one thing, see another thing say another thing, tio bo?

All the bre@st

 

The IF' s & BUTT' s report brought to you by Nabeh & Heng Sexurities P/L...
" If aunty has two balls you call her uncle."

3 charts - Nasdaq old lady broke the late May/early June high, S+P is at or very near that
period high while Dow is somehwhat further away from that said high. BUTTER if I apply 
Fibonacci retracement on these 3 indices the story is a little different. So IF we look at
a single comparison our view will be binary, such as ' Nasdaq outperformed the other two.'
BUTTER IF we look at more than one comparison then our view will be 2 dimensional or 3Ds..
or even metaverse. Don' t know if I used metaverse correctly here BUTTER just a in thing.

to be continue....

 

The IF' s & BUTT' s report brought to you by Nabeh & Heng Sexurities P/L, a wholly owned subsidiary of
Sour & Sweet Sexurities Inc....

If not this then that, butter...." If aunty has two balls you call her uncle."

Nasdaq will be testing its weekly down trend resistance line this coming week.
Key data market focusing on will be the inflationary CPI data which are expected
to be lower, will the NASDAQ break up(green arrow) or fail(red arrow) the said
resistance line? Your GAS is as good as mine. This is the $1 dollar to $1 billion dollar
question depending on your exposure in the financial market. For those with lots of cash
and has little exposure they won' t bother to ask this question, just sit, wait and watch.

Same ending to my post...what I meant is not as important as what you think.

All the bre@st

 

" Pretty what a good number of people in the market also had this same thought"

Clarify to above...I dont mean they all think it will crash in the 4th quater, but they all share the view
that this bear market is not over to be precise....

 

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Sour & Sweet Inc...

Directional Movement Indicator - ADX(green line-shaded with blue down arrow)

In 2019 and 2020 this ADX turned downward lead to ' bull market' rallies in both years.
Recently the so called ' bear rally' suggested by some(those remain in bear camp) had
the same ADX turning down again, so neh, will it turn out to be another ' bull market'  
like 2019 and 2020? Haha, as usual I show chart and your imagination is more relevant
to you than my views or comments.  As always lor months later when we look back
its so easy to say this say that, in fact tomorrow we all knew what happen to the market
yesterday, wakakaka ma ho pao.In fact every initial phase of rally or sell-off are well known to
be a ' disbelief move' and after we believe it its already somewhat higher or lower oldlady lor,
normal also.

Till today this moring when I was watching a live poker game, there is one player who is in
Investment banking also feel that the market will rally still and the crash in the 4th quarter.
Pretty what a good number of people in the market also had this same thought, no wrong
no right, and when that happen of course this ADX will rise again then the bull will be incorrect.
A couple of player join in too to talk about yesterday surprising large non-farm payrolls and that
in previus experienced these numbers sometimes were revised for what ever reason, one of them
cited double count, wakakaka.

Wu cong kana boh cong again.If this if that....and my favorite quote " If aunty has two balls you call her uncle liao."


All the bre@st
Chartits-TikTalk