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Bro,

Wilmar at 3.86, UOB at 26.68, chance to long?

 

 

Yes at most one more 75bps in November and I feel December hike most likely 50 bps...

ssw518      ( Date: 23-Sep-2022 22:45) Posted: Market est another 75 > 50 > 50bbp till end of 2022 TikTalk      ( Date: 22-Sep-2022 18:08) Posted: Bro Luzern, u mean 3.5% the max

 

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J Powell - The Father Of Interest Rate
Don' t fight the FED

By the next FOMC meeting on Nov 1-2 we would have seen the September inflation data.
The Fed will raise rate by another 75 or 50 bps depending on that datas and I think by the 
December 13-14 meeting the rate of increase will start to slow down and into 2023 it will
likely be 25 bps each meeting when necessary. US treasuries yield will start to decline
into 2023 and the Fed will most likely ease monetary policy sometime in 2024.

All the bre@st

 

Ya, US 2y treasury note 4%, almost risk free, better than our OA.

Luzern      ( Date: 23-Sep-2022 22:16) Posted: Getting lesser and lesser incentive for most to start a business or expand an exsiting business with loans. For some induatry, they would make more profit just parking their money in US bonds as of now.

 

Current Fed Fund.Rate is.3% to 3.25%. By end 2022, it should be around 4% to 4.25%. US 2yr Bond Rate should cross 5%. How much will the banks be charging customer for new loans? .....tough time for companies and individuals with with huge debt.

 

Market est another 75 > 50 > 50bbp till end of 2022

TikTalk      ( Date: 22-Sep-2022 18:08) Posted: Bro Luzern, u mean 3.5% the max? Luzern      ( Date: 22-Sep-2022 16:29) Posted: 3.5%, the magic number for Fed Fund Rate. 😁

 

Getting lesser and lesser incentive for most to start a business or expand an exsiting business with loans. For some induatry, they would make more profit just parking their money in US bonds as of now.

 

That is the level where business starts to hurt and starts to scale back.

 

Bro Luzern, u mean 3.5% the max?

Luzern      ( Date: 22-Sep-2022 16:29) Posted: 3.5%, the magic number for Fed Fund Rate. 😁

 

3.5%, the magic number for Fed Fund Rate. 😁

 

13 seconds my record time(I think) for in/out on Dow futures...17:06 opened 17:19 closedof course
may be possible to do shorter time for smaller profits(just saying like 3 pts provided zhun hor) of less than 17 points.

 

Quadruple witching day

 

Before & After

Last time said Fed behind the curve.
Now some said Fed could be over doing it.

Media channel invite all these people sure some will say this and some say that.

All the bre@st

 

Kns, today short 3 times lost money, CPI released drop 700 points.
I must admit I will never have a open position into such data releases...bo pian.

 

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10th September 2022

Weekly Report : STI-Bull Flag

Not much comment- I say up you may think down, I say down you may think up.
Your perception is more than anything else.

All the bre@st

 

What kind of stock surged 13000% on debut then gave back 95% of its gain the next day?

 

Add...when I say the sign are positive- it means can play from long side
as prices has a chance of moving higher, the point I was trying to say
below is that it is too early to say the trend is up,
my trend will mean a larger sustainable move not small wave up/down 
10c kind of move

 

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Riverstone - Higher Low & 200ma showing positive sign.

1) High low(0.68c must not be breach) is the first step of bullish development,
next we need is another higher high(break 0.85c) when occur will further improve
sentiment. Of course what I like most will be a break above resistance line, green 
arrow mean will be higher while red arrow mean a fail to break up thus price will
come back down.

2) 2nd chart showed that the 200ma has flatten out suggesting price has stop
declining. From here onward when prices can sustain above the 200ma for a
good period of time it may even up the 200ma and that will be another positive sign.

Combining both charts and all that was mentioned happen then we can say Riverstone
trend has turn up, as of now I can only say the sign are positive.
Maybe for some when stock move from 70c to 80c they meant up trend, butter for
me no, I look at a bigger picture, something like if GDP down 1 qtr, oh the economy
is bad but defination need 2 consecutive qtr of GDP decline, still recent US data of
2 qtr decline is not a recession, not confirm  by the National  Bureau of Economic Research.

So to say a stock trend has turn we need to see from a bigger frame work.

All the bre@st.

 

Today everybody talking about why yield didnt go up on Friday, butter up today.

TikTalk      ( Date: 28-Aug-2022 08:53) Posted: Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole wipe out 1 over trillion $ of financial assets, ok after all he is the ' father of interest rate' . Unlike his usual academic speech it was very clear thus easy for a layman  like myself to understand the urgency to bring down inflation, painful for some who will lose their job, still he did not use the word recession butter instead said a period of lower growth may be needed. Apart from the frenzy in the stock market, 10 year US Treasury yield remain relatively calm,  rose only 4bps for the week, whereas the 2yr t-note rose 16bps as the yield curve  remain inverted.

 

Bro, your sentence is too long....its the Fed that is behind the curve
not J Powell alone make all decisions.

zillion      ( Date: 29-Aug-2022 10:06) Posted: Powell has been behind the curve way too long now desperate to do catch-up. He was so blind and hope hope that inflation will go away(transitory), any other economists can be a better Fed Chairman. With a USD90B buybacks via repos, reduce balance sheet ie QT he has no other tools except a strong USD and interest rates to bring economy back to ground level. Holy Trinity-strong economy, strong currency, higher interest rate? Miracle? TikTalk      ( Date: 28-Aug-2022 10:59) Posted: Jackson Hole - " The tongue is mightier than the sword." The written word/speech is more effective than the rate hike as a tool for commuunication a point. Stock market rallied after the June and July rate hike, the Fed must be furious with it. So the short speech by J Powell is as good as another rate hike of 50bps        that is not offic1ally added to the Fed Funds.I mean interest rate decision has been so predictable, everyone knew when and how much they are going to do before their schedule announcement. So he changed a few words and the way he phrase it the market went bonkers while the contexts are essentially the same. If he is so hawkist, will they raise 100bps in September? My gas is no, probably 75bps, and then 50bps the next one, therefore if what I anticipated today turn out correctly then when I look back what does this speech means? Nothing, except of course the surprise element that has been missing was there on Friday.  Will see. Anyway just pen down my thoughts for future reference. Kam xia humida for reading. All the  bre@st.