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3 BIG Spore banks ....:))

This is what happens when a government interferes with the free market, in this case, the banks - it causes their share prices to plunge. This is exactly what is happening now to DBS, UOB and OCBC. The problem is that the slide may not be the end as the Euro and US markets are still not opened.

The problem with government interference is that it always have a negative impact to what it touches, and the gov. always think its for the better. What usually happened is that, because of a plunge in share prices, it causes their worth or capital to get a hit as well, resulting in loss of confidence of those companies involved. One can see that DBS got hit the worst because it is the goto bank for many international players, thus the higher trading vol and bigger swing in prices.

Why can' t the gov see our local banks as well diversifed thus better equip to take hard knocks? For example, OCBC has Great Eastern and land banks, UOB is interwined with UOL and Haw Par, and DBS is a holding group with testticles everywhere. No, our gov always think we the people and big organizations need to be spoon fed (or controlled as some would suggest).

DBS is 18c per qtr as per SGX dbs announcement

FATABA ( Date: 30-Jul-2020 08:50) Posted:

Cool it , MAS is indeed giving the MARKET a shock .....agree the need to conserve cash for all banks as ECON is very bad.
But the timing is real bad. cld be after this qtr result n dividend .....ALL will b real unhappy ....me included.

BUT look at the 60% cap ...its NOT zero ....means
SH still have income but need cut by 40% .....everyone need to contribute to this ciming crisis .....which we are facing now.
Good for those w cash .....a great chance to accumulate once it recovers .....when is the ??

OCBC 15c each half
UOB 33c each half .
Dbs aro 19c each qtr if not wrong.....there is a DBS sgx announcement on this ....i hv not read it yet.

Might hv a drop today ...which should be the value of the diff in dividend ....but most likely more due to shortist ......see if they are caught
Gd luck to all investor
DYODD

CheeryVGoh ( Date: 29-Jul-2020 22:34) Posted:

Ya Lor, should at least wait after this Quarter results reporting is over.

Tmr would be big sell off i think.

Cool it , MAS is indeed giving the MARKET a shock .....agree the need to conserve cash for all banks as ECON is very bad.
But the timing is real bad. cld be after this qtr result n dividend .....ALL will b real unhappy ....me included.

BUT look at the 60% cap ...its NOT zero ....means
SH still have income but need cut by 40% .....everyone need to contribute to this ciming crisis .....which we are facing now.
Good for those w cash .....a great chance to accumulate once it recovers .....when is the ??

OCBC 15c each half
UOB 33c each half .
Dbs aro 19c each qtr if not wrong.....there is a DBS sgx announcement on this ....i hv not read it yet.

Might hv a drop today ...which should be the value of the diff in dividend ....but most likely more due to shortist ......see if they are caught
Gd luck to all investor
DYODD

CheeryVGoh ( Date: 29-Jul-2020 22:34) Posted:

Ya Lor, should at least wait after this Quarter results reporting is over.

Tmr would be big sell off i think.

Starship ( Date: 29-Jul-2020 22:27) Posted:

Very despicable indeed. DR. EVIL!!!!!
Throughout the pandemic, it had been telling the world that there' s no requirement for our banks to cut dividends.
Now just days before earnings announcement, it drops the guillotine.
What is it trying to achieve?

When investors buy for dividends, this is what they deserve! None of my stocks are bought for dividends. They are bought for upside and all flew. My portfolio perform very very well. Those who buy for dividends, well there' s no certainty. Anyway it' s only 1 year lool. 4 months ago, I warn against all banks and dbs and people Huat and Huat and say drop is good. Now it' s all doom and gloom.

How can MAS do such things to reduce our dividend if bank is earning well??

This is totally unfair to investors! What is the point of investing our money then in SGX??

Ya Lor, should at least wait after this Quarter results reporting is over.

Tmr would be big sell off i think.

Starship ( Date: 29-Jul-2020 22:27) Posted:

Very despicable indeed. DR. EVIL!!!!!
Throughout the pandemic, it had been telling the world that there' s no requirement for our banks to cut dividends.
Now just days before earnings announcement, it drops the guillotine.
What is it trying to achieve?

CheeryVGoh ( Date: 29-Jul-2020 22:07) Posted:

Fataba,

Why MAS swung into action before reporting of Q2 results?

https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/media-releases/2020/mas-calls-on-local-banks-to-moderate-fy2020-dividends

Very despicable indeed. DR. EVIL!!!!!
Throughout the pandemic, it had been telling the world that there' s no requirement for our banks to cut dividends.
Now just days before earnings announcement, it drops the guillotine.
What is it trying to achieve?

CheeryVGoh ( Date: 29-Jul-2020 22:07) Posted:

Fataba,

Why MAS swung into action before reporting of Q2 results?

https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/media-releases/2020/mas-calls-on-local-banks-to-moderate-fy2020-dividends

FATABA ( Date: 28-Jul-2020 10:53) Posted:

Base on GE result and announced dividend

I am expecting ( MY OWN view only ) ...dividend will be continued for 1H 2020
Dbs 33, UOB 50/55c and OCBC 25 c
Keeping my finger cross on this
Dyodd

Fataba,

Why MAS swung into action before reporting of Q2 results?

https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/media-releases/2020/mas-calls-on-local-banks-to-moderate-fy2020-dividends

FATABA ( Date: 28-Jul-2020 10:53) Posted:

Base on GE result and announced dividend

I am expecting ( MY OWN view only ) ...dividend will be continued for 1H 2020
Dbs 33, UOB 50/55c and OCBC 25 c
Keeping my finger cross on this
Dyodd

GE just release its 2Q result ....which is good.
More so it has maintain its dividend w NO CUT>
So OCBC wld most likely maintain its 2019 !H dividend of 25c ? I hope so too
Dyodd

On this topic, CNBC released a fantastic interview with DBS CEO Gupta yesterday where he highlighted the severity of the crisis.

As Asia' s largest lender, he has an unprecedented amount of insight into the state of the economy.

Here are the key takeaways:

The economic storm is the worst one he has seen and he describes it as the worst crisis facing mankind in the last 70 years.
He expects the real challenges to emerge next year as companies will transition from a liquidity crisis to a solvency crisis.
The consequences of the financial crisis have not been felt... and he expects it to be on par if not worst than the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
He expects the banks to be able to weather out the current crisis better than 2008 with stronger capital buffers & risk management.
Under their current projections, DBS will be able to maintain its dividend.
If there is a tail event (US-China Trade War?) that deals even bigger damage, then the dividend may have to be cut.
One of the biggest challenge ahead will be unemployment and job creation which is rising relentlessly.

Wow currently 2 of our big 3 has gone BELOW its book value ......some data here
DBS UOB OCBC ( price at lunch 24/7 .....(20.68/20.20/8.98 )
Book value : 19.96/ 23.76/10.71 ( base on one broking house information )

Dividend and result coming up 6/7 Aug .....will it be maintain .....one thing is certain ..> ALL 3 banks are STILL profitable .
Good luck DYODD
Vested

Singapore banks' upcoming dividends may be cut amid capital review: analyst

WED, JUL 22, 2020 - 1:43 PM

NATALIE CHOY[email protected]NatalieChoyBT

DIVIDEND cuts by Singapore banks may happen " as early as" the upcoming payout to be announced in the second quarter, with the regulator reviewing banks&rsquo capital plans amid prolonged economic uncertainty, said DBS Group Research in a report this week.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said last Thursday it is in close discussions with banks on their capital management ahead, which would include conversations around - though not limited to - restricting dividend payouts. Banks " should start early and not waituntil the capital position starts looking weaker" , MAS managing director Ravi Menon had told reporters.

This come as the managements of Singapore banks have generally kept their dividend options open, said DBS analyst Lim Rui Wen. Currently, DBS pays an absolute dividend per share of 33 Singapore cents per quarter. UOB has a dividend payout ratio policy of about 50 per cent of earnings, subject to a minimum CET1 ratio of 13.5 per cent and sustainable outlook, while OCBC has committed to a sustainable dividend " in line with its long-term growth prospects" .

Should the absolute dividend payout for DBS and OCBC be maintained in FY2020, their dividend payout ratio would be around 65 to 70 per cent which is " relatively high" , said Ms Lim. Meanwhile, while a S$1.10 base dividend per share provides a " key support" for UOB, a dividend cut is possible due to reduced FY2020 earnings, she noted. In FY2019, UOB paid a special dividend of S$0.20 per share on top of the base dividend.

Overall, given the steep earnings decline expected across banks in FY2020, banks may err on the side of caution and voluntarily cut back on dividends and shore up capital, she noted.

The option of offering scrip dividend with discount as a capital management tool was also cited as a possibility. For example, OCBC&rsquo s historical scrip dividend offers a 10 per cent discount.

Ms Lim said she is also expecting Singapore banks to register a record quarter-on-quarter decline in net interest margin (NIM) in Q2 as benchmark rates collapse, which could ultimately weigh on the upcoming dividend payout.

" There are downside risks to earnings arising from lower NIM if Singapore banks&rsquo NIMs break below post-GFC (global financial crisis) lows. This could lead to lower dividends."

She has projected for Q2 NIM to compress by 16-22 basis points (bps) quarter-on-quarter, compared with a change of 0-5 bps in Q1. Across the banks, quarterly NIMs are expected to be near their all-time post-GFC low. While Q2 should see the bulk of the repricing effect, there could be a spillover effect into Q3, said Ms Lim. Every 10bps decline in NIM is estimated to have a 6 to 8 per cent impact on net profit.

On top of having the global pandemic on tourism and retail businesses weigh on results, banks' earnings could also be hurt by larger-than-expected non-performing loans (NPLs) in Q2 from generic sectors or as combined with commodities-related exposure, said Ms Lim.

This is further compounded by unemployment arising from a deep recession that could pose risks to mortgages and unsecuredconsumer loans, among others. Based on DBS' s analysis, every 10 bps uptick in credit costs may impact sector earnings by around 7-8 per cent.

Overall, DBS Group Research is watchful for the second half of FY2020 as government relief measures begin to taper off, which include rental rebates, wage subsidies and loan moratoria. This may lead to the winding up of some businesses should their underlying demand fail to recover during the Phase 2 period, said Ms Lim.

Consequently, defaults arising from at-risk loans will see banks chalking up more bad debt. OCBC and UOB' s NPL ratio for FY2020 is expected to come in at 2 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively, compared with 1.5 per cent in FY2019.

CGS-CIMB told BT on Friday that Singapore banks' upcoming dividend payout is less likely to be impacted by deliberations by the regulator on banks' capital management plans. Instead, their dividend payout in the second quarter will depend more on their earnings impact from the current operating environment amid pre-emptive provisioning and NIM headwinds.

All three banks will report their Q2 earnings in the first week of August.

Shares of the three banks traded lower Wednesday afternoon. As at 1.42pm, shares of DBS lost 24 cents to S$21.16, shares of OCBC were down seven cents to S$9.14, and shares of UOB fell 19 cents to S$20.51.

OCBC Bank: The lender has filed an application to appoint judicial managers over Xihe Holdings and four of its vessel-owning subsidiaries, citing " strong distrust" in Xihe' s current management after evidence of fraud was uncovered at sister company Hin Leong Trading in April. OCBC shares moved up S$0.03 or 0.3 per cent to S$9.21 at Tuesday&rsquo s close.

A question asked to DBS CEO ...and looking at the answer, we SHOULD hv dividend this qtr.

CT: This pandemic has really triggered a huge discussion on whether banks should continue their dividend payout. While HSBC, Credit Suisse, UBS have said that they&rsquo re going to suspend their dividend payouts. Can you clarify your position?

PG: I think most of the banks who have suspended the dividend didn&rsquo t do it voluntarily. They did it because they were nudged or guided by the regulators in the respective markets. HSBC was quite vocal, if it wasn&rsquo t for the regulator, they would have paid their dividend. Similarly, the Swiss banks and so on. So, I think it might be premature for regulators to mandate dividend cuts when we still don&rsquo t know the scale and size of the impact. Let me remind you, I said banks are well capitalized. Banks have a lot of buffer and cushions. At the end of the last crisis, we established a protocol along with the regulators in the Basel format, which allowed us to keep extra capital buffers, counter-cyclical buffers which we dipped into before you get to the stage of having to attack the dividend or cutting back on capital. My view was we should go down the protocol that we agreed as opposed to being precipitate and front-ending the dividend cuts before we even know the scale and size of the damage. Now, my response to you about us being open to looking at our dividend is something which is consistent with what I said earlier, that if you think the situation is going to get so bad as we go forward with the next 12, 18 months, that we need to conserve more capital than we have, then of course, we will go back and reconsider dividend. We made the statement again in our first quarter guidance that we pay dividend every quarter. So, every quarter we would take stock and see how bad the damage is and what is the impact on our stress capital positions, then we&rsquo ll take some views on what we need to do with our dividend policy.

Maybk KE 20/07/2020 :

OCBC has the highest likelihood of surprising on the upside, while UOB may surprise on the downside from weaker margins, because of their cautious track record of NIM management, with limited gapping activity..

FATABA ( Date: 21-Jul-2020 17:02) Posted:

HK casino up 577pts
UOB seem to be comfortable w 70/80c behind DBS .
Concern cld be the amt of SME lost UOB is facing. WOnder how big a provision UOB is taking / IF dividend is maintain above 50c, I thk its
price will rise
DYODD

Me 2, waiting patiently for Q2 results.

FATABA ( Date: 21-Jul-2020 10:26) Posted:

Interesting 6 and 7th Aug for the big3 results. ( my personal view)

DBS should be able to maintain its 33c dividend for Q2. matter of what provision set aside for bad loans ( cld be 750M )

UOB prices is much depress ( nearly a $1 lower then DBS which is not normal ) UOB cld be much more affect by SME bad loans . Divid 50/55 I hope

OCBC seem to maintain its strenght aro 9.20 region ....dividend shld be aro 25c as its less than 50% payout ratio/ GE is a big factor in its result

Awaiting patiently for wk1 Aug. Dyodd

UOB KH - 20 JUL

DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP) 2Q20 Results Preview:

Steady And Sturdy We forecast net profit of S$1,079m for 2Q20, down 32.7% yoy and 7.4% qoq. Operationally, total income receded 15.8% qoq, partially mitigated by a reduction in operating expenses and credit costs (DBS affected by huge general provision of S$703m and S$415m exposure to Hin Leong in 1Q20).

We foresee DBS adopting a conservative stance to trim dividends by 9.1% to 30 S cents per quarter, while reactivating its scrip dividend scheme.

Maintain BUY. Target price: S$24.80.

FATABA ( Date: 20-Jul-2020 15:29) Posted:

It is possible , but certainly still very good if just 3c (10% cut for this qtr) . However, I think it will remain ...( national day bonus /LOL )
More of a concern , and wld be the amount of provision set aside for bad loans. 20% of this coming true could b sizeable
Awaiting patiently for its result first week aug for ALL 3 banks.

CheeryVGoh ( Date: 20-Jul-2020 13:57) Posted:

Possible to be 30c for this Quarter.

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3 BIG Spore banks ....:))

Singapore banks' upcoming dividends may be cut amid capital review: analyst