Mapletree PanAsia C    Last:1.27   -

MCT

Have been kissing the screen veryday for this counter, yes, great shorts block the uptrend. However, after earning reports, buyers come back to bring up 1.30 whenever it gets short down to 1.28, 1.29.   

 

see how hard the shorts block the buying up.
artificially trash down to 1.30 and unable to cover. shortist activated their mouth piece engine to try to talk down.  fact is market has not enough money so everything go down.
but then also no real sell as price already too cheap. so big sell will have to big buy all the way backup. maybe still short a bit as some got eaten by value investors.
buyers be steady it is difficult to collect so cheap. don' t believe other talk talk. even if it is a wonder white horse talking. they have their interest. buy already collect dividend long term. when the time come then sell with a big profit. meanwhile shorts will still try to hold by putting big sell q. this will move when big money flow back. and by then if still not cover then die die got to take the lost.
my wild guest only, don' t beleive me la. just watch it for yourself.    i will buy when there is a sale.

 

Analysts mixed on MPACT
CGS-CIMB upgrades to 'add' with lower TP
Maybank downgrades to 'hold' with lower TP


https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/analysts-mixed-mpact-cgs-cimb-upgrades-add-lower-tp-maybank-downgrades-hold

 

good set of reports. positive return notable is festival walk recovery compared to last year.
next year should be better. analyst worry about lost of rental for china property, but renting and vacancy is part of landlord ongoing problem. important is the location and conditions of the property.
grade A  office buildings in chaoyang district beijing and pudong shanghai is not the same as those in tier 2 cities.
interest rate at or near peak already. fed meeting tomorrow. guess interest rate stay. their job is more like building confident of usd then fighting inflation. a potential increased in interest rate is more powerful then one utilised already. so guess they will hold. (wild guess only so is every others)
rental increased due to interest rate increased, inflation etc are more sticky and permanent. when interest rate start to go down one will see the benefits of owning rental income. in the short term high interest rate bad for reits, but over the longer term it is actually good. (help to increase rent)
reits is easier for small retailers as smaller amount needed and not need to deal with tenants.
this are sale time. buy when there is a sale.  analyst can forecast many downside which is true but only temporary. the price already more then reflected reality due to money flowing to find more short term return.
dividend 2.24 cents xd 2 nov good boost for cpf ordinary accounts investment.
but always buy in samll chunks over time to balance out operator risk of managing the price.
buy it will drop. sell it will go up. there are reasons for these.
dyodd.

 

https://growbeansprout.com/mpact-share-price-oct-2023

 

 

reporting quaterly results and dps on 26 oct
see if rental recovery can cover the interest rate expense. with more space completing AI hopefully can see some recovery in dps and not keep going down.
also see if their efforts in containing electrical cost etc is effective. passing on some of the cost to tenants.

 

Price is even lower than that of Covid time now ?

 

Agree with all of this, except US cannot raise taxes to solve their deficit problem - taxes already too high. Also, strictly speaking it' s not a global problem, it' s a US one. The inabililty to make federal income balance with federal costs is the underlying explanation of why US politics is so dyfunctional. 

 

it is not about this stock alone. it is a global problem with us binging on debt and fed doing qt trying to shore up confident of usd to keep the exchange rate high.   
high interest rate has attracted much fund to park their money in deposit.   
high interest rate has cause bond prices to fall. in turn causing problem of all bond related activities. like if one has use their bond as collateral they may face margin call to top up.
in turn force to sell something to cover it.

higher interest rate to fight inflation is just a way of talking. think the real reason is there will not be enough demand at low interest rate for the us government bond. more and more central banks are switching to basket of currencies then just usd. they also buy more gold.
will us government go bankrupt? don' t think so since debt is all in usd. they cna increased tax. they can also get fed to create more and more. the result is much lower usd exchange rate against other currency . maybe 1 usd to 1 sgd? possible?

 

Moving towards penny stock by making new low everyday !

 

黃 金 周 不 似 預 期 ， 截 至 昨 晚 9時 ， 單 日 僅 32.2萬 人 次 入 境 ， 旅 團 慘 淡 ， 食 肆 零 售 業 黯 然 。 內 地 一 連 8天 10‧ 1黃 金 周 前 日 展 開 ， 香 港 旅 遊 業 議 會 主 席 徐 王 美 倫 表 示 ， 當 日 入 境 旅 行 團 約 有 75團 ， 相 信 與 中 秋 在 家 吃 團 圓 飯 的 傳 統 習 俗 有 關 ， 預 料 未 來 數 天 的 旅 團 量 將 逐 漸 增 多 。 不 過 ， 紅 磡 部 分 有 提 供 內 地 團 餐 的 酒 樓 指 ， 旅 行 團 客 量 明 顯 較 以 往 周 六 同 一 時 段 減 少 ， 有 店 員 不 諱 言 「 靜 到 拍 烏 蠅 」 ； 有 內 地 導 遊 透 露 旅 行 團 數 量 不 如 預 期 多 ； 有 內 地 旅 客 透 露 ， 在 港 購 物 並 非 主 要 目 的 ， 又 旅 遊 景 點 人 流 並 不 多 。

入 境 人 次 羅 湖 落 馬 洲 僅 11.9萬

截 至 昨 日 晚 上 9時 ， 約 82.5萬 多 人 次 出 入 境 ， 入 境 方 面 約 有 32.2萬 多 人 次 ， 出 境 人 次 則 約 50.3萬 多 。 經 羅 湖 口 岸 入 境 人 次 最 多 ， 有 約 6萬 人 次 ； 其 次 是 落 馬 洲 支 綫 口 岸 ， 有 約 5.9萬 人 次 。 高 鐵 西 九 龍 站 入 境 有 約 4.8萬 人 次 ； 深 圳 灣 口 岸 入 境 約 有 3.9萬 人 次 ； 機 場 入 境 約 有 3.4萬 人 次 ； 港 珠 澳 大 橋 口 岸 則 有 約 3.3萬 人 次 入 境 本 港 。 旅 遊 業 監 管 局 則 表 示 ， 截 至 昨 日 上 午 8時 ， 共 接 獲 501個 內 地 入 境 旅 行 團 登 記 在 10‧ 1黃 金 周 假 期 期 間 訪 港 ， 涉 及 內 地 旅 客 約 1.5萬 人 次 ， 當 中 164團 已 在 昨 日 到 港 ， 涉 及 內 地 旅 客 約 4,700人 次 ， 整 體 秩 序 良 好 。

 

agreed that there are now more competitions for tourism $.  many 2nd tier cities in china are becoming more competitive. they have concerts, performace, low cost accomodation and natural scenary.
but hk tourist people are still expecting 1m vistors during this holiday season. not back to before covid yet. but growing. other factors that affect is exchange rate cnyhkd is about 1.07 versus about 1.2  so spending power affected.  but hk is a resiliant place.  during 97 many left then return after a few years. cause that is still a special place to make a living, face pace, happening. near to china.
these are fundamental changes that only affect share price by a little bit . the real reason is market money has not come back in.  is it a blinkmanship as well?  early mover will have advantage at such serious discount price even below the management buy price. when money start to move think we will see storm like flow of money flowing in to all counters.  banks, telco those normal first to go stock the second level then low down stock.  think history will just repeat later. 
be ready like the virgin waiting for the bridegroom. the time unknown.

 

Still favourite compared to non-mainland destinations. Mainland travel to HK now 70% of prre-covid level - higher than to almost everywhere else. But at least in 2023 mainland travellers most focused on taking holidays in the mainland. I understand there are financial incentives provided to do so. 

 

 

The fact is , HK is no longer a favourite place for the Chinese tourists.

 

Main problem is fed qt is done too fast and interest rate has attracted lots of money sideline. Look at low value trade of entire market. Like no heart beat while market declared dead

 

One specific issue I think is that for mianland tourists coming into HK now their preferences of what to do has changed/is changing. I think going to a mid tier mall like Festival Walk is going to be relatively less popular.

Also in the past Festival Walk was one of the easier malls to get to from the border given the transport system at the time. With the MTR expansion over recent years there are now better malls that are effectively just as easy to reach.     

 

The main problem now hitting MPACT is the weak property mkt in China and HK. And nobody can do anything that will be able to solve this problem, for now,...

HVRRVH      ( Date: 27-Sep-2023 10:15) Posted: No worries. Currently the overall market factors mean SReit as a whole segment is trying to hit nadir. If may still go on for a while but Fed is nearing its terminal rate. At the micro level, even many individuals are parking their funds in Tbills, fixed deposits, SSB etc. Personally, I also have funds in Tbills, high saving interest bank account and SSB, which I have never had before. But I have already started to move some moeny back into SReit and other stocks. At least for now, we can start to see some buying interest for some SReits such as OUE Com, Lendlease, Mapletree Log, FLCT etc. By acquring MNACT, Mapletree Investment, the parent/sponsor show that they are far sighted. If they have not mereged the 2 reits, I think MNACT will be trading around 50 cents now. Yes it is somewhat a bitter pill for MCT holders to swallow but as parent/sponsor for both the reits, Mapletree Investment have to take a longer term and bigger picture view. Back then, they have sinked in 1.6b to subscribe 2.2b preferential units at $2.0039 per unit to ensure the success of the merger. Imagine, they have bought at $2.0039 per unit as compare to $1.41 per unit now. I do not think they would sit idle and do nothing. At the right timing, MPACt should bound but nobody know yet when is the right timing but personally I would sit tight for now.

 

Anyway will consider to add more to average down , if price continues to head south .

 

That is unlikely to be sufficiently significant to cause the need for a rights issue, at least for this company.

Separately from a regulatory standpoint, I believe MAS has a carve out that falling valuation in itself would not count as causing a breach of gearing limits.