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Though tough and takes time, the rest of world ex-USA will gradually try to work around the tariffs.
Delvyss ( Date: 16-Apr-2025 11:39) Posted:
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Recovery barometer
Considerable
seanpent ( Date: 11-Apr-2025 13:57) Posted:
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Hard to ignore there' s a 57 cts in 10 days time :)
huattuatua ( Date: 14-Apr-2025 10:47) Posted:
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m salivating at the 57 cts divvy (xd on 25/4/25) and payable on 9th may
but at the same apprehensive of the impact of tariffs on this and the xd correction,
still hv 10 more days to decide.
but at the same apprehensive of the impact of tariffs on this and the xd correction,
still hv 10 more days to decide.
Hope the buybacks restart soon before it moves higher.
prophetjul ( Date: 11-Apr-2025 10:29) Posted:
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Time to invest in STI index
The idiots they employ for BBs are no different from those fear traders! LOL
Echoes ( Date: 11-Apr-2025 09:49) Posted:
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https://sginvestors.io/sgx/stock/o39-ocbc-bank/share-price-history
The one in charge of buybacks needs to wake up .
Daily buybacks from 10 to 17 Mar at average prices above $17 .
4 to 9 Apr market crash prices at $14 to $15 no buybacks .
Yesterday 10 Apr prices recover by $1 do buybacks again .
The one in charge of buybacks needs to wake up .
Daily buybacks from 10 to 17 Mar at average prices above $17 .
4 to 9 Apr market crash prices at $14 to $15 no buybacks .
Yesterday 10 Apr prices recover by $1 do buybacks again .
XD 25/4/2025 ..... $0.57 .....
Ok. We know who is afraid. Lol.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ndtv.com/world-news/trump-tariffs-donald-trump-acknowledges-people-were-bit-afraid-on-tariffs-8128121/amp/1
Al Green says he' ll present articles of impeachment against Trump in next 30 days
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5234386-al-green-donald-trump-impeachment/
Trump tariffs aimed at ' America First' are making China great again
HSI from about 24770 in Mar 2025 to about 20300 now
UOB Kay Hian downgrades DBS to &lsquo sell&rsquo , OCBC to &lsquo hold&rsquo cuts target prices
Banks&rsquo regional operations will bear the brunt of Trump&rsquo s reciprocal tariffs, say analyst
[SINGAPORE] UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) downgraded Singapore banks DBS and OCBC to &ldquo sell&rdquo and &ldquo hold&rdquo , respectively, citing forecasts of higher credit costs and &ldquo anaemic&rdquo loan growth resulting from US President Donald Trump&rsquo s tariffs.
It downgraded DBS from &ldquo hold&rdquo to &ldquo sell&rdquo , cutting its target price from S$49.80 to S$40. It maintained a &ldquo hold&rdquo rating for OCBC, cutting its target price from S$21.10 to S$16.85.
In a note on Monday (Apr 7), analyst Jonathan Koh said that banks&rsquo regional operations would bear the brunt of Trump&rsquo s reciprocal tariffs, with substantial tariffs imposed across the board on Asian economies including Vietnam (46 per cent), Thailand (36 per cent), China (34 per cent) and Indonesia (32 per cent).
Although Singapore is subject only to a 10 per cent baseline tariff, Koh estimates that DBS, OCBC and UOB would effectively face average reciprocal tariffs of 15.9 per cent, 17.3 per cent and 17.3 per cent, respectively, due to their exposure across the region.
He noted that the brokerage had cut its 2026 net profit forecasts for both DBS and OCBC by 13 per cent, citing lower loan growth and higher credit costs due to non-performing loans in the manufacturing sector, particularly within the Asean region.
&ldquo The slowdown in intra-regional trade triggered by reciprocal tariffs will reverberate across supply chains across the region,&rdquo said the analyst. &ldquo Many companies&rsquo China+1 strategy are in tatters.&rdquo
He noted that manufacturers are likely to cut costs to stay viable, triggering job losses and subsequent slowdowns in domestic consumption.
The brokerage lowered its forecasts for DBS&rsquo loan growth from 4.8 per cent to 2 per cent, while OCBC&rsquo s was lowered from 4.9 per cent to 2 per cent.
Both banks&rsquo ability to sustain dividend payouts may also be under pressure. UOBKH said that it expects DBS to maintain a dividend per share (DPS) of S$0.60 in the fourth quarter of 2025 &ndash lower than its previous forecast of S$0.66, while OCBC&rsquo s DPS is projected to remain steady at S$1, provided economic conditions do not deteriorate further.
Beyond immediate earnings pressure, the brokerage said that global economies should expect further shocks. China&rsquo s retaliation to match US tariffs of 34 per cent, as well as the European Union&rsquo s warnings of retaliation could lead to a global trade war.
UOB economists have cut US gross domestic product forecasts from 1.8 per cent to 1 per cent in 2025, while raising the probability of a US recession to 40 per cent from a previous 20 to 25 per cent. Singapore&rsquo s GDP growth forecast of 2.5 per cent is likely to fall by 0.5 to 1 per cent, Koh added.
The brokerage noted that the interest rate outlook remains uncertain, with the US Federal Reserve holding off on rate cuts while awaiting greater clarity. The Fed held its 2025 year-end rate projection steady at 3.9 per cent during its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Mar 25, signalling two modest cuts of 25 basis points each this year.
Meanwhile, Koh noted that Singapore&rsquo s interest rates have begun to ease. The three-month compounded Singapore Overnight Rate Average fell by 64 basis points in 2024 to 3.07 per cent, and declined further to 2.56 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.
UOBKH also downgraded the broader Singapore banking sector to &ldquo underweight&rdquo , with Trump&rsquo s &ldquo unprecedented&rdquo tariffs and a slowdown in global trade likely to affect Singapore&rsquo s wider economy. Final demand from the US accounts for 8.3 per cent of domestic value-added in Singapore, which is higher relative to other Asean economies, the note said.
Risks of bad loans, slowdown in region spark cuts in banks&rsquo target prices DBS downgraded to &lsquo sell&rsquo , OCBC, UOB get &lsquo hold&rsquo rating
Lenders&rsquo regional operations will bear the brunt of Trump&rsquo s reciprocal tariffs, says UOBKH analyst
[SINGAPORE] Analysts have downgraded their outlook on Singapore banks amid concerns of weaker loan growth and higher credit costs, as Trump&rsquo s tariffs threaten a global trade war.
UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) downgraded DBS to &ldquo sell&rdquo , cutting its target price from S$49.80 to S$40. The brokerage maintained a &ldquo hold&rdquo rating for OCBC, cutting its target price from S$21.10 to S$16.85.
Similarly, DBS Group Research analysts downgraded UOB from &ldquo buy&rdquo to &ldquo hold&rdquo , while maintaining their &ldquo hold&rdquo rating on OCBC. UOB&rsquo s target price was slashed from S$38.50 to S$32.70, while OCBC&rsquo s target price was cut from S$17.60 to S$14.40.
At 2.45 pm on Tuesday (Apr 8), , and were trading at S$38.34, S$15.01 and S$32.35, respectively.
In a note on Monday, UOBKH analyst Jonathan Koh said that banks&rsquo regional operations would bear the brunt of Trump&rsquo s reciprocal tariffs, with substantial tariffs imposed across the board on Asian economies including Vietnam (46 per cent), Thailand (36 per cent), China (34 per cent) and Indonesia (32 per cent).
Although Singapore is subject only to a 10 per cent baseline tariff, Koh estimates that DBS, OCBC and UOB would effectively face average reciprocal tariffs of 15.9 per cent, 17.3 per cent and 17.3 per cent, respectively, due to their exposure across the region.
The brokerage cut its 2026 net profit forecasts for both DBS and OCBC by 13 per cent, citing lower loan growth and higher credit costs due to non-performing loans in the manufacturing sector, particularly within the Asean region.
&ldquo The slowdown in intra-regional trade triggered by reciprocal tariffs will reverberate across supply chains across the region,&rdquo said the analyst. &ldquo Many companies&rsquo China+1 strategies are in tatters.&rdquo
He added that manufacturers are likely to cut costs to stay viable, triggering job losses and subsequent slowdowns in domestic consumption.
UOBKH lowered its forecasts for DBS&rsquo loan growth from 4.8 per cent to 2 per cent, while OCBC&rsquo s was lowered from 4.9 per cent to 2 per cent.
Both banks&rsquo ability to sustain dividend payouts may also be under pressure. UOBKH said that it expects DBS to maintain a dividend per share (DPS) of S$0.60 in the fourth quarter of 2025 &ndash lower than its previous forecast of S$0.66, while OCBC&rsquo s DPS is projected to remain steady at S$1, provided economic conditions do not deteriorate further.
Similarly, DBS Research Group analysts Derek Tan and Lim Rui Wen noted &ldquo rough seas ahead&rdquo for Singapore banks in a note on Monday. They believe their previous bullish views of the lenders due to more active capital management plans, higher earnings visibility and stronger loan growth have been &ldquo derailed&rdquo by the prospect of a trade war.
Current banking stock valuations have neared all-time highs at 1.2 to 1.8 times forward price-to-book ratios (based on FY2025 forecasts), the analysts noted.
This draws similarities to the US-China trade war in 2018 which saw local bank stock prices retreat by up to 35 per cent. In FY2018, valuations peaked at 1.3 to 1.5 times forward price-to-book ratios.
&ldquo A more pronounced sell-off may be on the cards,&rdquo the DBS analysts said.
UOBKH said that global economies and banks should expect further shocks. China&rsquo s retaliation to match US tariffs of 34 per cent, as well as the European Union&rsquo s warnings of retaliation, could lead to a global trade war.
UOB economists have cut US gross domestic product forecasts from 1.8 per cent to 1 per cent in 2025, while raising the probability of a US recession to 40 per cent from a previous 20 to 25 per cent. Singapore&rsquo s GDP growth forecast of 2.5 per cent is likely to fall by 0.5 to 1 per cent, UOBKH&rsquo s Koh added.
In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said on Tuesday that the country&rsquo s economic growth will be &ldquo significantly impacted&rdquo by the tariff fallout, and a recession this year cannot be ruled out.
UOBKH noted that the interest rate outlook remains uncertain, with the US Federal Reserve holding off on rate cuts while awaiting greater clarity. The Fed held its 2025 year-end rate projection steady at 3.9 per cent during its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Mar 25, signalling two modest cuts of 25 basis points each this year.
DBS&rsquo Lim and Tan, however, flagged that the Fed might further increase the current guidance due to the risk of an escalating trade war. &ldquo Almost 100 basis points of cuts are now priced (by markets) for 2025, as it is assumed that the Fed will prioritise growth over inflation concerns,&rdquo they said, expecting further downside to banks&rsquo net interest income.
Meanwhile, UOBKH&rsquo s Koh noted that Singapore&rsquo s interest rates have begun to ease. The three-month compounded Singapore Overnight Rate Average fell by 64 basis points in 2024 to 3.07 per cent, and declined further to 2.56 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.
UOBKH also downgraded the broader Singapore banking sector to &ldquo underweight&rdquo , with Trump&rsquo s &ldquo unprecedented&rdquo tariffs and a slowdown in global trade likely to affect Singapore&rsquo s wider economy. Likewise, DBS noted that loan growth guidance from local banks would have to be revised downwards as economic slowdowns intensified.
The DBS analysts noted, however, that Singapore banks have significant management overlays, ranging from S$600 million to S$2 billion.
Even in the face of a prolonged trade war, these should enable banks to keep credit costs low in case of defaults, they said.
Brazil, Egypt and Singapore among potential winners from tariff onslaught
https://www.reuters.com/world/brazil-egypt-singapore-among-potential-winners-tariff-onslaught-2025-04-08/
Nice U-turn. Zipped some.
Officials in 19 states sue to block Trump' s election order, saying it&rsquo s unconstitutional
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/officials-in-19-states-sue-to-block-trumps-election-order-saying-its-unconstitutional
OCBC prices 500 million euro bonds due 2028 at 2.481%
The bonds are expected to be listed on the Singapore Exchange on Apr 11
[SINGAPORE] OCBC : O39 -0.75% said on Thursday (Apr 3) that it has priced 500 million euros (S$733.8 million) in fixed-rate covered bonds due 2028. The covered bonds will bear interest at a fixed rate of 2.481 per cent per annum, payable annually in arrears.
The net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, said OCBC.
The covered bonds, which are part of the lender&rsquo s US$10 billion global covered bond programme, are expected to be rated &ldquo Aaa&rdquo by Moody&rsquo s Investors Services and &ldquo AAA&rdquo by Fitch Ratings.
Payments of interest and principal be guaranteed by Red Sail, secured by a portfolio of assets purchased by the guarantor from OCBC.
The bonds are expected to be issued on Apr 10 and listed on the Singapore Exchange on Apr 11.
Barclays Bank (Singapore branch), ING Bank, Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg, OCBC, Societe Generale and UBS London Branch acted as the joint lead managers for this issue. Landesbank Hessen Thuringen Girozentrale was appointed as the co-manager.