3.17     
  +0.16
mega rally, gone are the bearish days where DF was hovering at low $2
  +0.16mega rally, gone are the bearish days where DF was hovering at low $2
ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Dec-2022 22:51) Posted:
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Stock broke out to new 52-wk high on China reopening.
Seems like the market arent quite buying into the HK reopening play given that DFI is a clear beneficiary of that...
Hopefully the share price recovery can be sustained this time but with the border reopening, it is a move in the right direction. Lets see how much the market is willing to pay for its forward earnings. This is probably one of the poorest performing stocks within the Jardine portfolio, of which the others have been supported with share repurchases, etc.
ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Dec-2022 22:51) Posted:
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3.02     
  +0.11
resumption of HK biz and reopening is music to dairy farm' s ears!
  +0.11resumption of HK biz and reopening is music to dairy farm' s ears!
ozone2002 ( Date: 01-Apr-2022 18:11) Posted:
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Seems like market is taking notice of the reopening play in HK / Greater China and impact on DFI. Potential for more upside?
Thanks for sharing the TA - any indication of where the stock might be headed from here? FA wise, seems like DBS is the only broker so far to upgrade TP to $3.90. Appreciate your view if you wouldnt mind pls. Thanks.
ozone2002 ( Date: 21-Dec-2022 13:24) Posted:
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2.9     
  +0.07
hit target price 
almost 50% upside since the recent lowest low
  +0.07hit target price 
almost 50% upside since the recent lowest low
ozone2002 ( Date: 07-Dec-2022 10:47) Posted:
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Dbs research
Man the counters, tourists returning!
Investment Thesis
Increased visibility of China reopening. The Chinese government&rsquo s recent moves to relax COVID restrictions is a signal of a shift from the strict zero-COVID policy. We view this as a positive first step towards borders re-opening. Given the frequent conversations and close ties between Hong Kong and China, we believe Hong Kong will be an early reopening beneficiary from the return of Chinese tourists.
Chinese tourists to boost Health & Beauty (H& B) segment.
DFI&rsquo s H& B segment has remained subdued since COVID due to loss of Chinese tourists. We expect Chinese tourist influx to rebound sharply in 2H23, which should materially improve H& B earnings.
Pessimism regarding North Asia business may be overdone.
The current negative outlook of North Asia&rsquo s economy has led to sell-off of stocks with significant North Asian exposure such as DFI Retail Group (DFI). However, we believe the sell- off is overdone and valuation is at an attractive level currently, as we project earnings to rebound strongly in FY23F and FY24F after an expected low point in FY22F.
Valuation:
Reiterate BUY with higher TP of US$3.90 based on historical PE valuation. We have a non-consensus BUY call and have increased our TP to US$3.90, pegged to a 17.4x PE ratio, representing -1.5SD from its 10-year mean, on a blended FY23F/24F earnings to account for China&rsquo s reopening tailwind.
Where we differ:
We believe the market is overly pessimistic on DFI&rsquo s North Asia business. Early signs indicate that the North Asia business segments are on track for strong recovery in FY23F/24F.
Key Risks to Our View:
We may be too early, with FY22F earnings still looking dismal, but looking at its low share price, we believe the odds are on our side. Return of COVID restrictions and higher-than-expected digitalisation investment costs dragging out longer are risks.
At A Glance
Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,353 Mkt. Cap (US$m/US$m) 3,884 Major Shareholders (%)
Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd 77.6 Free Float (%) 22.4 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 1.1 GIC Industry : Consumer Staples / Food & Staples Retailing
Man the counters, tourists returning!
Investment Thesis
Increased visibility of China reopening. The Chinese government&rsquo s recent moves to relax COVID restrictions is a signal of a shift from the strict zero-COVID policy. We view this as a positive first step towards borders re-opening. Given the frequent conversations and close ties between Hong Kong and China, we believe Hong Kong will be an early reopening beneficiary from the return of Chinese tourists.
Chinese tourists to boost Health & Beauty (H& B) segment.
DFI&rsquo s H& B segment has remained subdued since COVID due to loss of Chinese tourists. We expect Chinese tourist influx to rebound sharply in 2H23, which should materially improve H& B earnings.
Pessimism regarding North Asia business may be overdone.
The current negative outlook of North Asia&rsquo s economy has led to sell-off of stocks with significant North Asian exposure such as DFI Retail Group (DFI). However, we believe the sell- off is overdone and valuation is at an attractive level currently, as we project earnings to rebound strongly in FY23F and FY24F after an expected low point in FY22F.
Valuation:
Reiterate BUY with higher TP of US$3.90 based on historical PE valuation. We have a non-consensus BUY call and have increased our TP to US$3.90, pegged to a 17.4x PE ratio, representing -1.5SD from its 10-year mean, on a blended FY23F/24F earnings to account for China&rsquo s reopening tailwind.
Where we differ:
We believe the market is overly pessimistic on DFI&rsquo s North Asia business. Early signs indicate that the North Asia business segments are on track for strong recovery in FY23F/24F.
Key Risks to Our View:
We may be too early, with FY22F earnings still looking dismal, but looking at its low share price, we believe the odds are on our side. Return of COVID restrictions and higher-than-expected digitalisation investment costs dragging out longer are risks.
At A Glance
Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,353 Mkt. Cap (US$m/US$m) 3,884 Major Shareholders (%)
Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd 77.6 Free Float (%) 22.4 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 1.1 GIC Industry : Consumer Staples / Food & Staples Retailing
The stock has fallen tons over the years, almost like a forgotten child of the Jardine family. With the reopening in China and HK, that should provide a material uplift next year.
ozone2002 ( Date: 09-Dec-2022 10:56) Posted:
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China reopening play is the in thing right now
investors all jumping on this bandwagon
investors all jumping on this bandwagon
n3wbie ( Date: 09-Dec-2022 10:55) Posted:
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Thanks for sharing. Broke above $2.90. Would be interesting to see if the momentum carries through as there is still substantial upside from here till where things were previously before the impact of the pandemic.
ozone2002 ( Date: 07-Dec-2022 10:47) Posted:
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https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-covid-19-nationwide-loosening-restrictions-home-quarantine-pcr-testing-3127846?cid=FBcna& fbclid=IwAR1sNPd6ZEj_qXnbM1yebujrcccDvjTH6UkZP-oEUswavstQsEF6xdiVVus& mibextid=Zxz2cZ
ozone2002 ( Date: 07-Dec-2022 10:48) Posted:
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2.84     
  +0.09
one of the beneficiary stocks that will be boosted by China reopening
  +0.09one of the beneficiary stocks that will be boosted by China reopening
| ozone2002 ( Date: 05-Dec-2022 12:57) Posted: |
KGI Research
DFI Retail Group Holdings Ltd (D01 SP)  - Long &ndash Entry 2.70, Target 2.90, Stop 2.60
Shares closed above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA was about to cross the 200dEMA. 
Both MACD and RSI are constructive. 
DFI Retail Group Holdings Ltd (D01 SP)  - Long &ndash Entry 2.70, Target 2.90, Stop 2.60
Shares closed above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA was about to cross the 200dEMA. 
Both MACD and RSI are constructive. 
DF to Cheong!
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/05/asia-markets-china-caixin-services-pmi-economy-stocks-oil.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/05/asia-markets-china-caixin-services-pmi-economy-stocks-oil.html
Thread with caution cos it' s from KGI
DFI Retail Group Holdings Ltd (D01 SP)  - Long &ndash Entry 2.45, Target 2.70 Stop 2.35
Shares trended up above the 5dEMA and closed at a one-month high with rising volumes. The 5dEMA was about to cross the 50dEMA.    
Both MACD and RSI are constructive. 

 
DFI Retail Group Holdings Ltd (D01 SP)  - Long &ndash Entry 2.45, Target 2.70 Stop 2.35
Shares trended up above the 5dEMA and closed at a one-month high with rising volumes. The 5dEMA was about to cross the 50dEMA.    
Both MACD and RSI are constructive. 
 
DBS expects DFI earnings to bounce back in FY2023 upgrades to &lsquo buy&rsquo
 
DBS Group Research has upgraded DFI Retail Group : D01 +3.31% to an early, non-consensus &ldquo buy&rdquo from &ldquo hold&rdquo as it expects associate performance to bounce back next year.
 
It also raised its target price to US$3.07 from US$2.67. This represents a potential upside of 21.3 per cent from the counter&rsquo s last trading price of US$2.53 as at 11.47 am on Thursday (Nov 10). The company&rsquo s shares were up 4.6 per cent or US$0.11 at the time.
 
The research team believed the market is &ldquo overly pessimistic&rdquo on DFI&rsquo s North Asia business and said current valuations are mispricing the group&rsquo s strong FY2023 earnings recovery.
 
The Hong Kong market, where key revenue contributor Maxim&rsquo s Group resides, is expected to see some recovery amid relaxing Covid-19 restrictions, which should spur dining-out spending, DBS said in a report on Wednesday.
 
Furthermore, higher elderly vaccination rates and an increased count of Covid-19-dedicated hospital beds will likely lower the possibility of Covid-19 restrictions being reinstated. However, they cannot be completely ruled out given China&rsquo s current zero-Covid policy stance and influence on Hong Kong policies, DBS noted.
 
Yonghui Superstores, another associate, is also projected to return to profitability. It stands to benefit from easing competition from community group buying platforms in China, which compressed supermarket margins in recent years after exploding in popularity during lockdowns.
 
DBS pegged DFI&rsquo s price to be 17.5 times its estimated FY2023 earnings, which is 1.5 standard deviations below its 10-year mean. The research team also projected a yield of 4.3 per cent in FY2023.
 
DFI Retail Group, previously known as Dairy Farm International, operates supermarket brands Cold Storage and Giant in Singapore. A member of the Jardine Matheson Group, DFI has a primary listing on the London Stock Exchange and secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore.
*DFI Retail* &lsquo s 3Q underlying profitability improved YoY.    Within subsidiaries, Health and Beauty, Convenience and IKEA businesses all benefitted from stronger like-for-like sales growth but was broadly offset by lower profitability in Grocery Retail.
now $2.5 up 50c from the low of $2, that' s 25% gain!
DBS Research
DFI Retail Group  -  Upgrade to non-consensus BUY
Upgrade to  BUY, with higher TP of US$3.07, given signs of earnings recovery at DFI&rsquo s associates
Hong Kong is well positioned to transit to living with COVID-19, with higher elderly vaccination rates
Dining-in expected to normalise in the next three years, boosting profitability at Maxim&rsquo s
Easing competition and normalisation of operational environment to return Yonghui to profitability in FY23F
DBS Research
DFI Retail Group  -  Upgrade to non-consensus BUY
Upgrade to  BUY, with higher TP of US$3.07, given signs of earnings recovery at DFI&rsquo s associates
Hong Kong is well positioned to transit to living with COVID-19, with higher elderly vaccination rates
Dining-in expected to normalise in the next three years, boosting profitability at Maxim&rsquo s
Easing competition and normalisation of operational environment to return Yonghui to profitability in FY23F