Mapletree PanAsia C    Last:1.27   -

MCT

There' s more long term growth potential in the MNACT portfoilo than in the MCT one so I would argue the merger from a strategic perspective made sense. Also benefits from becoming larger (greater indexation, lower cost of capital etc). The issue was not with the merger itself, but in the exchange ratio - too generous to MNACT shareholders.

 

Finance costs increased by 7 m per Q .

 

10.1 % DPU drop YoY, which is hardly a surprise since MCT took on previously MNACT' s portfolio in HK, Japan, China & Korea. With 40% leverage and still a high interest rate environment, which should persist for another year or 2 at least and coincide with 63% of debt need to be refinance in the next 3 years, it felt like a case of Saving Private Ryan. MCT would be well above $2 if not because of Ryan, i.e., MNACT. But Mapletree Investment has no choice but to rescue Ryan so we are where we are now. Without the merger, MNACT would become a disgrace in Mapletree' s stable of reits with likely market price of below 50 cents in my view. The rescue is a success with high price in the short term. Let' s hope Ryan come good eventually. 

 

I can see S-reits find the price support level at around the current prices. This time, the market cannot ignore the fact that even though the   interest rate is still high, there are indications that the cycle is ending soon. I would think bluechip S-reits are able to withstand 5-7% interest rate and fortunately, with US expected terminate rate at 5.6%, the price slide should be arrested at current level. This is unlike previously there is no certainty how high the Fed will hike the rate and funds are too happy to sell off equity holdings in favour of fixed income assets. There is valuable lesson in this down cycle too. Already, I can see that among my holdings, some suffered high percentage DPU cut of 9,82% [calander year 2023] and some just a very tolerable 3% plus cut. And honorable mention must be given to MLT, with see an increase of 0.72% in DPU in calander year 2023! i am bracing myself to add more but not now, only when prices drop substantially again. 

PiRPiR      ( Date: 05-Jan-2024 14:20) Posted: Hiccup in S-REIT rally as risk-free rates rebound GW Thu, Jan 04, 2024 ? 02:35 PM GMT+08 ? 4 min read https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/right-timing/hiccup-s-reit-rally-risk-free-rates-rebound

 

Hiccup in S-REIT rally as risk-free rates rebound

GW
Thu, Jan 04, 2024 ? 02:35 PM GMT+08 ? 4 min read

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/right-timing/hiccup-s-reit-rally-risk-free-rates-rebound

 

Yes. Mainland tourists coming to HK in general much more focused on " the experience" than before. The K11 malls offer a lot on that front. Can' t extrapolate to Festival Walk.

 

Indeed, Festival Walk is a little dated.
Need rejuvenate to compete with newer malls.

pasttime      ( Date: 03-Jan-2024 09:15) Posted: hk k11 musea and k11 art mall good results. what about festival walk. similar? if not they have something to learn from the k11

 

hk k11 musea and k11 art mall good results.
what about festival walk. similar? if not they have something to learn from the k11

 

useful info ...

SGDInvestor      ( Date: 02-Jan-2024 19:21) Posted: Hi, sharing my video on " Assess These 2 RISKS for Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust To Avoid Regret #dividendinvesting" .  https://youtu.be/45069ynugkY

 

Hi, sharing my video on " Assess These 2 RISKS for Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust To Avoid Regret #dividendinvesting" . 
https://youtu.be/45069ynugkY

 

Classic " be greedy when others are fearful" opportunity in October - bonds and bond-like equities at firesale prices.

 

When I posted this I also didn' t exepct that 1 month later, it hit the lowest of $1.27 on 26 Oct! It has recovered much ground since then. With the benefit of hindsight, we can only say BBs were really savage, push it down so low to $1.27 to accumulate. Good too for those retailers to add the positions on cheaper prices. 

HVRRVH      ( Date: 27-Sep-2023 10:15) Posted: No worries. Currently the overall market factors mean SReit as a whole segment is trying to hit nadir. If may still go on for a while but Fed is nearing its terminal rate. At the micro level, even many individuals are parking their funds in Tbills, fixed deposits, SSB etc. Personally, I also have funds in Tbills, high saving interest bank account and SSB, which I have never had before. But I have already started to move some moeny back into SReit and other stocks. At least for now, we can start to see some buying interest for some SReits such as OUE Com, Lendlease, Mapletree Log, FLCT etc. By acquring MNACT, Mapletree Investment, the parent/sponsor show that they are far sighted. If they have not mereged the 2 reits, I think MNACT will be trading around 50 cents now. Yes it is somewhat a bitter pill for MCT holders to swallow but as parent/sponsor for both the reits, Mapletree Investment have to take a longer term and bigger picture view. Back then, they have sinked in 1.6b to subscribe 2.2b preferential units at $2.0039 per unit to ensure the success of the merger. Imagine, they have bought at $2.0039 per unit as compare to $1.41 per unit now. I do not think they would sit idle and do nothing. At the right timing, MPACt should bound but nobody know yet when is the right timing but personally I would sit tight for now.

 

UOB Kay Hian lowers MPACT?s TP, DPU on lower contributions from China and further depreciation on forex

Fri, Dec 01, 2023 ? 10:13 PM GMT+08


https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/uob-kay-hian-lowers-mpacts-tp-dpu-lower-contributions-china-and-further

 

Mapletree gets approval to build interim ferry and cruise terminal at Harbourfront: ST

Mon, Nov 27, 2023 ? 05:14 PM GMT+08 ?


https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/property/mapletree-gets-approval-build-interim-ferry-and-cruise-terminal-harbourfront-st

 

$1.41 now. Go MCT GO!

 

Taking control of our finance investing :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgcKm65u9Cw& t=9s
 

 

Yes, HK is slowly being marginalized。
China want to bring up Macau & Shenzhen, which together with Hk, form the  大 湾 区 .
Few more years down the road, maybe 10 or so but definitely before 2047 (the 50th years of handover), HK will be just another big city of China.

 

Tourist dynamics in HK has shifted post covid the most significant change is that HK locals now see the mainland as a very attractive short time destination due to low prices / good service. Over 5m trips by HK permanent residents into the mainland already in first nine months of 2023 out of a 7m population. 

This affects mall dynamics in HK - pre-covid, holidays were big P& L days for them due to mainland tourists outweighing locals going away on holiday but at the moment they are actually worse days than average because on holdiays there is a net migration impact out of HK onto the mainland instead. 

 

as speculated. fed did not up rates to keep it as a means to keep interest in usd.
so now more likely to stay this level till next year q1. q1 to q2 may start to down rates a bit for us president election.

now people who want to lock in high bond rates will start to move in more.  reits will also be good. reits is not like bond where rates are fixed.  reits is a business and has business cost and way to increased revenue.  now high interest rates and operating cost can be used as reasons to up rent.  wheather the current rent payer take or not will depends on if they can make money. if footfall and buying continue to increase then there will be takers for higher rent. be it current or new.
hk is recovering. the shift reported base on history is demand increase in resident area less demand for tourist area.    festival walk in university zone and transport convenient point. already better then last year (base on their report) will be better with time as they reduce and eventual drop off rental help with rental increased.  so is bond better or reits better. they have similarity but cannot be compared as reits is a business. in a recovery, business will be better then bond.

 

DBS Rents Hong Kong Retail Space at 18% Lower Than Asking Price