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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.

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Abe8888
    06-Jan-2021 18:00  
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There are lots of business waiting... -

December 24, 2020,


In the last few days of December 2020, South Korean shipbuilders are witnessing a surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier orders. https://www.offshore-energy.biz/korean-shipbuilders-report-lng-carrier-ordering-spree/
 
January 5, 2021


South Korean shipbuilding heavyweight Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (KSOE) has won orders for a total of six containerships worth approximately $818.4 million (KRW 891 billion). https://www.offshore-energy.biz/ksoe-nets-order-for-6-containerships/








 
 
 
Abe8888
    06-Jan-2021 12:18  
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Sembcorp Marine
Weekly Short Sale Report 20201228 to 20210101
https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/reports/short-sell/2021/01/ShortSellReport20201228to20210101.txt
ShortSaleVolume 57,144,700            
ShortSaleValue SGD$8,167,322.80

Shorts Volume went down with prices going up since Christmas. A little short-covering i guess.


 

Abe8888      ( Date: 01-Jan-2021 19:26) Posted:

" The big thing about SMM as opposed to any other stock is that the vast majority of retail shareholders will never be sellers. They love the stock, they love the ships, they love the ministers and Wong WS and they are adamant long shareholders." :)

Abe8888      ( Date: 01-Jan-2021 19:22) Posted:


Sembcorp Marine Weekly Short Sale Report 20201221 to 20201225
https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/reports/short-sell/2020/12/ShortSellReport20201221to20201225.txt
ShortSaleVolume        88,360,500      
ShortSaleValue       SGD $12,474,654.30


SMM short-sellers lost US$38 billion in 2021 as stock surged -

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/tesla-short-sellers-lost-us38-billion-in-2020-as-stock-surged
 


 
 
ADS2200
    05-Jan-2021 23:42  
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Better, you are right and it is the most recent quarter (mrq)

Balance sheet

Total cash  (mrq) 1.11B
Total cash per share  (mrq) 0.53
Total debt  (mrq) 5.63B
Total debt/equity  (mrq) 279.35
Current ratio  (mrq) 0.93
Book value per share  (mrq) 0.95
 


better      ( Date: 05-Jan-2021 21:07) Posted:

I would venture to say that they have over S$2 billion cash on hand as at 31st Dec 2020.

Pre rights issue cash balance- 1.1 billion (Search yahoo finance for S51. Click on statistic. Scroll down to " total cash" tab)
Cash from rights issue- 600mil
Government Covid aids paid out in cash- estimated 50 to 100mil
Cash from projects completion- a couple of projects completed in 2020. estimated about 200-300 mil which is cash flow positive.

For those who understanding accounting principle, the losses reported in 2020 are mostly non cash events, accelerated depreciation of yard/ equipment value. Mainly to push through the rights issue and the upcoming merger. In pther words, Sembmarine need not report a loss if they don' t want to. This is called creative accounting.

Likewise for Keppel O& M. 

 

 
better
    05-Jan-2021 21:10  
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Seems like we have a good close today.

During the dark days of SMM a few months back, we would see it close 14.8 or 14.9 instead of closing with a 5 handle, based on today' s market action.

Pretty decent support.
 
 
better
    05-Jan-2021 21:07  
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I would venture to say that they have over S$2 billion cash on hand as at 31st Dec 2020.

Pre rights issue cash balance- 1.1 billion (Search yahoo finance for S51. Click on statistic. Scroll down to " total cash" tab)
Cash from rights issue- 600mil
Government Covid aids paid out in cash- estimated 50 to 100mil
Cash from projects completion- a couple of projects completed in 2020. estimated about 200-300 mil which is cash flow positive.

For those who understanding accounting principle, the losses reported in 2020 are mostly non cash events, accelerated depreciation of yard/ equipment value. Mainly to push through the rights issue and the upcoming merger. In pther words, Sembmarine need not report a loss if they don' t want to. This is called creative accounting.

Likewise for Keppel O& M. 
 
 
Godwinlow
    05-Jan-2021 12:19  
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SembMarine now already got 1.6-1.7 billion cash on hand. Its market cap is now about 1.87 billion. Junk? U must be kidding 

jesmarnew      ( Date: 05-Jan-2021 10:29) Posted:

Dont be fooled by merger talk....it' s pump and dump by traders rewinding this news....on current climate in Oil & Gas here the bigger the hole bigger....just sit back and wait to pick up below 10 cts this year!!!! It' s junk inisde.....everyday management meeting is talking about debts and bank payment!!! Not worth second look time being!!!!

 

 
newbie19
    05-Jan-2021 10:53  
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You are still in a dreamed  land waiting for it to drop below 10 cts. 
where is your Analysis NOT predictions!

 

jesmarnew      ( Date: 05-Jan-2021 10:29) Posted:

Dont be fooled by merger talk....it' s pump and dump by traders rewinding this news....on current climate in Oil & Gas here the bigger the hole bigger....just sit back and wait to pick up below 10 cts this year!!!! It' s junk inisde.....everyday management meeting is talking about debts and bank payment!!! Not worth second look time being!!!!

 
 
wehuattogether88
    05-Jan-2021 10:51  
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hahaha, he ownself talk ownself soong!

pkli899      ( Date: 05-Jan-2021 10:47) Posted:

I' m wondering, u waiting for 10 c to buy?
If it' s junk, 1 c also cannot buy mah.
Care to explain?

jesmarnew      ( Date: 05-Jan-2021 10:29) Posted:

Dont be fooled by merger talk....it' s pump and dump by traders rewinding this news....on current climate in Oil & Gas here the bigger the hole bigger....just sit back and wait to pick up below 10 cts this year!!!! It' s junk inisde.....everyday management meeting is talking about debts and bank payment!!! Not worth second look time being!!!!


 
 
pkli899
    05-Jan-2021 10:47  
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I' m wondering, u waiting for 10 c to buy?
If it' s junk, 1 c also cannot buy mah.
Care to explain?

jesmarnew      ( Date: 05-Jan-2021 10:29) Posted:

Dont be fooled by merger talk....it' s pump and dump by traders rewinding this news....on current climate in Oil & Gas here the bigger the hole bigger....just sit back and wait to pick up below 10 cts this year!!!! It' s junk inisde.....everyday management meeting is talking about debts and bank payment!!! Not worth second look time being!!!!

 
 
bystander1965
    05-Jan-2021 10:35  
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Not worth second look time being

And why are you here so often to talk about this counter? laugh

jesmarnew      ( Date: 05-Jan-2021 10:29) Posted:

Dont be fooled by merger talk....it' s pump and dump by traders rewinding this news....on current climate in Oil & Gas here the bigger the hole bigger....just sit back and wait to pick up below 10 cts this year!!!! It' s junk inisde.....everyday management meeting is talking about debts and bank payment!!! Not worth second look time being!!!!

 

 
Shifu8888
    05-Jan-2021 10:32  
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When you think this is up, this will go down but when you think this is down, this will surprise you.
Not surprise to see it close green today.
 
 
jesmarnew
    05-Jan-2021 10:29  
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Dont be fooled by merger talk....it' s pump and dump by traders rewinding this news....on current climate in Oil & Gas here the bigger the hole bigger....just sit back and wait to pick up below 10 cts this year!!!! It' s junk inisde.....everyday management meeting is talking about debts and bank payment!!! Not worth second look time being!!!!
 
 
better
    05-Jan-2021 10:25  
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Collected a small bunch at 15 cents to support.  laugh

Trade safe and DYODD!
 
 
better
    05-Jan-2021 10:23  
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After the merger, SMM share price will double or triple over time because the profit potential of the merged entity will double or triple compare to if they are separated.

That is the reason why Temasek is bend on the merger. 

As Temasek will need to pay Keppel to buy a part of the Keppel O& M or subscribe to SMM shares with cash, that cash transaction will provide a value to SMM and Keppel O& M.

The cash transaction by Temasek will likely value SMM at about 1.5 times book value or 45 cents per share. Because if the offer is too low, SMM shareholders can veto the deal then it will be a no go.



 
 
 
LuckyCharm_SMS
    05-Jan-2021 09:04  
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@better

LuckyCharm_SMS      ( Date: 05-Jan-2021 08:39) Posted:

Can please help understand as to what would happen if SMM were to absorb KOM? Would SMM stock plummet again. Or would there be another round of rights issue and dilution to buy out Kom?

better      ( Date: 04-Jan-2021 23:56) Posted:

No delisting. Temasek does not delist their holding companies unless totally no choice. 

Also much easier to get SMM sharehodlers to agree to absorb Keppel O& M then to get them to agree to sell out their shares when SMM is in totally no financial duress.

The chain of event that I described is the most logical and easiest to execute. Time is of essence here. So need to get everything done chop chop as the offshore boom is just around the corner.

But after SMM absorb Keppel O& M, they can take up the name I proposed a few months back- Singapore Offshore and Renewable.

Nowadays, with ESG investing in vogue, any company with the name tag " renewable" can sell for a few times more.

 


 

 
alleyboy
    05-Jan-2021 08:52  
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Profit taking leow.
 
 
LuckyCharm_SMS
    05-Jan-2021 08:39  
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Can please help understand as to what would happen if SMM were to absorb KOM? Would SMM stock plummet again. Or would there be another round of rights issue and dilution to buy out Kom?

better      ( Date: 04-Jan-2021 23:56) Posted:

No delisting. Temasek does not delist their holding companies unless totally no choice. 

Also much easier to get SMM sharehodlers to agree to absorb Keppel O& M then to get them to agree to sell out their shares when SMM is in totally no financial duress.

The chain of event that I described is the most logical and easiest to execute. Time is of essence here. So need to get everything done chop chop as the offshore boom is just around the corner.

But after SMM absorb Keppel O& M, they can take up the name I proposed a few months back- Singapore Offshore and Renewable.

Nowadays, with ESG investing in vogue, any company with the name tag " renewable" can sell for a few times more.

 

 
 
better
    04-Jan-2021 23:56  
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No delisting. Temasek does not delist their holding companies unless totally no choice. 

Also much easier to get SMM sharehodlers to agree to absorb Keppel O& M then to get them to agree to sell out their shares when SMM is in totally no financial duress.

The chain of event that I described is the most logical and easiest to execute. Time is of essence here. So need to get everything done chop chop as the offshore boom is just around the corner.

But after SMM absorb Keppel O& M, they can take up the name I proposed a few months back- Singapore Offshore and Renewable.

Nowadays, with ESG investing in vogue, any company with the name tag " renewable" can sell for a few times more.

 
 
 
naoshingo
    04-Jan-2021 23:11  
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Bro Better, do you think SM will be delisted and a new entity be listed ?
Or would the set up be like the Capitalmall trust where just one get delisted

better      ( Date: 04-Jan-2021 23:07) Posted:

Decision day for Keppel corp due end of this week to next week. Clock running down fast.

As mentioned a week ago, the likely chain of events should start with Temasek buying over a portion of Keppel O& M with cash. Then Sembmarine issues new shares (non cash event) to Keppel Corp and Temasek to absorb Keppel O& M.

The problem is finding the right price for Keppel Corp and Sembmarine shareholders to agree.

I think the right price which all parties can accept and not too out of character for Temasek' s stingy nature should be about 1.5x book value. 

​ So, if a merger were to be tabled in the next few weeks,, it should value Sembmarine at about 45 cents per share.

That would be the beginning of the journey into the new frontier.

Now, the last piece of the puzzle is the progress of the Hyundai heavy and DSWE merger which is still pending EU antitrust body' s approval. But I don' t think Temasek can wait much longer as the offshore boom is right about now. Miss this window and the next opportunity will be in 10+yrs time.

 

 
 
better
    04-Jan-2021 23:07  
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Decision day for Keppel corp due end of this week to next week. Clock running down fast.

As mentioned a week ago, the likely chain of events should start with Temasek buying over a portion of Keppel O& M with cash. Then Sembmarine issues new shares (non cash event) to Keppel Corp and Temasek to absorb Keppel O& M.

The problem is finding the right price for Keppel Corp and Sembmarine shareholders to agree.

I think the right price which all parties can accept and not too out of character for Temasek' s stingy nature should be about 1.5x book value. 

​ So, if a merger were to be tabled in the next few weeks,, it should value Sembmarine at about 45 cents per share.

That would be the beginning of the journey into the new frontier.

Now, the last piece of the puzzle is the progress of the Hyundai heavy and DSWE merger which is still pending EU antitrust body' s approval. But I don' t think Temasek can wait much longer as the offshore boom is right about now. Miss this window and the next opportunity will be in 10+yrs time.

 
 
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