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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.

18 cents

 

Calling all speculators and pundits, please place your bet!  Long or short?
Below are the odds:

13th Nov Friday close- 12.3 cents
20th Nov Friday close- 13.3 cents
27th Nov Friday close- 16.8 cents
4th Dec    Friday close- 17.1 cents
11th Dec  Friday close- 16.2 cents
18th  Dec Friday close- 14.6 cents
24th  Dec close- 13.8 cents
31st  Dec close- 14.3 cents
8th Jan Friday close- 16.6 cents
15^th Jan Friday close- 14 or 18 handle???

 

Sharp rise in oil prices overnight will be very good for SMM

 

Right Timing

Firmer interest rates, US stimulus boost oil, cyclicals and STI

Sembcorp Marine, now a penny stock, rose on the back of a surge in volume on Jan 6, and it has continued rising. While intuition may indicate this is not sustainable, short term indicators have just turned up. Directional movement indicators, which had been neutral till the start of 2021, have started to turn positive. That should support a price advance to $0.26. Prices won&rsquo t rise immediately to $0.26, which represents a 60% gain on SCM&rsquo s last done price of $0.164 as at Jan 7. Prices would probably ease when overbought pressures build up. It may even be that prices are in a multi-month base formation for which $0.26 could be the upper bound. As such, the downside is likely to be limited to $0.14. Risk versus reward points to greater probability of reward.      

 

Good news!!!!!!!! Hope there is some excitement on Monday............

better      ( Date: 09-Jan-2021 15:21) Posted: Other mega deliveries in  2021 are: The USD1.36 billion TechnipFMC FPSO for the Karish field (85% completed. To set sail from Singapore in Q2/3) Shell Vito FPU (Vito will be Shell&rsquo s 11th deep-water host in the Gulf of Mexico and is currently scheduled to begin producing oil in mid 2021) Hugely cashflow positive for Sembmarine!

 

Other mega deliveries in  2021 are:

The USD1.36 billion TechnipFMC FPSO for the Karish field (85% completed. To set sail from Singapore in Q2/3)

Shell Vito FPU (Vito will be Shell&rsquo s 11th deep-water host in the Gulf of Mexico and is currently scheduled to begin producing oil in mid 2021)

Hugely cashflow positive for Sembmarine!

 

Immediate resistance 17.5c....POEM remisier said one....

 

Breaking news: Sembmarine about to deliver 2 drillships worth close to USD2 billion to Transocean, the world leader in ultradeep water and harsh weather rigs. 


From Transocean' s Q3 financial update:

Net cashflow positive of $81  million, compared to $87  million in the prior quarter.

Third quarter 2020 capital expenditures of $65  million were primarily related to our newbuild drillships under construction with Singapore Sembmarine.

&ldquo Despite the challenges associated with COVID-19 and an active storm season in the  Gulf of Mexico, we continued to operate at a high level in the third quarter, with strong uptime performance driving revenue efficiency in excess of 96%, resulting in quarterly Adjusted Revenue of  $830 million,&rdquo said Jeremy  Thigpen, President and Chief Executive Officer. &ldquo Importantly, through the efficient conversion of our industry leading  $8.2 billion  backlog, we delivered Adjusted EBITDA Margins of 41%, which enabled us to generate  $81 million  in Operating Cash Flows.&rdquo

We are growing increasingly encouraged by the contracting activity that could unfold in the second half of 2021. (Transocean had secured a mega contract for one of the drillships to start work for Chevron in the 4th quarter of 2021 at the Gulf of Mexico)

 

Welcome buddy
I do agree with better, 9 mths target: 45 to 60 cents.
My own target : within 9 mths 40 to 50 cents.

pkli899      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:52) Posted: Thanks for your encouraging words. newbie19      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:26) Posted: Initially, i was like you....what if.....no merger? I sold my free shares 147,000 @ 0.171 and pocketed $25k+ quite sometime ago. Weeks later, i bought 200 lots @ 0.157 cts. Everydody knows the base is 20 cts. SCM has over S$2 billion cash on hand..... How low it will go????? Remember SCM during the heyday!!! (because of loss making for couple of years, it become penny stocks) And also the recent crude and brent oil massive jumb.. Now, everybody concerns including me...How high it will go!!!!!! No merger no problem..Merger we will Huat..

 

Better, is right with the no of shares. As such market cap for SCM is more than $2b while Keppel is about $10b
Today' s movement is machiam in anticipation of some press release. Is it coming soon ????
 

DLP123      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 01:12) Posted: Following the allotment and issue of the 10,462,690,870 Rights Shares, the number of issued Shares (including 416,840 treasury shares) increased from 2,092,955,014 Shares as at 10 September 2020 to 12,555,645,884 Shares. www.sembmarine.com/investor-relations/sembcorp-marine-rights-issue     Brycal_88      ( Date: 07-Jan-2021 22:05) Posted: Better you are correct. 12bn+share

 

Putting 2 and 2 together becomes 4

  means $0.40?

better      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:26) Posted: Transocean' s share price btw has rallied 20% over the past week. Putting 2 and 2 together. better      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:17) Posted: Upcoming mega delivery in 2021: Transocean ordered two ultra-deepwater drillships of the Jurong Espadon III design from Sembmarine back in 2014, for a price  of $540 million each. They were initially scheduled for delivery in 1Q 2018. In October 2017, Transocean agreed with Jurong Shipyard to enhance the two drillships by increasing the hook load capacity to three million pounds. With the upgrade, Transocean further delayed the delivery dates on each rig, with the drillships then expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2020. On 31 Dec 2018,  Transocean secured a hefty contract with Chevron to lease one of the two units with Chevron. This rig is expected to begin its service in the Gulf of Mexico in the fourth quarter of 2021.  Chevron calls for significant upgrades on the rig, including two 20,000 pounds per square inch blowout preventers. Worth noting, while the original price for the two drillships at the time of the order in 2014 was USD 540 million each, Transocean in its annual report last year shared that the final cost for the two units would be ~$1,93 billion ($1,05 billion for the Titan (TBN2), and $885 million for the TBN1 drillship). Bottomline: Sembmarine is about to finally deliver the 2 drillships to Transocean in 2021, currently valued at close to USD 2 billion. Delivery is relatively secured as Transocean has secured contract for the bigger drillship to start work for Chevron in the 4th quarter of 2021 at the Gulf of Mexico. One billion here, one billion there, it would eventually add up to something.

 

Thanks for your encouraging words.

newbie19      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:26) Posted: Initially, i was like you....what if.....no merger? I sold my free shares 147,000 @ 0.171 and pocketed $25k+ quite sometime ago. Weeks later, i bought 200 lots @ 0.157 cts. Everydody knows the base is 20 cts. SCM has over S$2 billion cash on hand..... How low it will go????? Remember SCM during the heyday!!! (because of loss making for couple of years, it become penny stocks) And also the recent crude and brent oil massive jumb.. Now, everybody concerns including me...How high it will go!!!!!! No merger no problem..Merger we will Huat.. pkli899      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:00) Posted: Aiyo, tempted to buy more..... What if.......no merger?

 

Initially, i was like you....what if.....no merger?
I sold my free shares 147,000 @ 0.171 and pocketed $25k+ quite sometime ago.
Weeks later, i bought 200 lots @ 0.157 cts. Everydody knows the base is 20 cts. SCM has over S$2 billion cash on hand.....
How low it will go????? Remember SCM during the heyday!!! (because of loss making for couple of years, it become penny stocks)
And also the recent crude and brent oil massive jumb..
Now, everybody concerns including me...How high it will go!!!!!!
No merger no problem..Merger we will Huat..

pkli899      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:00) Posted: Aiyo, tempted to buy more..... What if.......no merger?

 

Transocean' s share price btw has rallied 20% over the past week. Putting 2 and 2 together.

better      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:17) Posted: Upcoming mega delivery in 2021: Transocean ordered two ultra-deepwater drillships of the Jurong Espadon III design from Sembmarine back in 2014, for a price  of $540 million each. They were initially scheduled for delivery in 1Q 2018. In October 2017, Transocean agreed with Jurong Shipyard to enhance the two drillships by increasing the hook load capacity to three million pounds. With the upgrade, Transocean further delayed the delivery dates on each rig, with the drillships then expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2020. On 31 Dec 2018,  Transocean secured a hefty contract with Chevron to lease one of the two units with Chevron. This rig is expected to begin its service in the Gulf of Mexico in the fourth quarter of 2021.  Chevron calls for significant upgrades on the rig, including two 20,000 pounds per square inch blowout preventers. Worth noting, while the original price for the two drillships at the time of the order in 2014 was USD 540 million each, Transocean in its annual report last year shared that the final cost for the two units would be ~$1,93 billion ($1,05 billion for the Titan (TBN2), and $885 million for the TBN1 drillship). Bottomline: Sembmarine is about to finally deliver the 2 drillships to Transocean in 2021, currently valued at close to USD 2 billion. Delivery is relatively secured as Transocean has secured contract for the bigger drillship to start work for Chevron in the 4th quarter of 2021 at the Gulf of Mexico. One billion here, one billion there, it would eventually add up to something.

 

I agree with you, better.  That is my reason for saying 16.6c is still a good buy.

better      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:11) Posted: Merger or no merger, SMM will still fly. Offshore boom is already here. If no merger is confirmed, SMM can start share buyback immediately.  But Temasek is determined to make it happen. So, let' s see. 9 mths target- 45 to 60 cents I am very vested, so DYODD.    pkli899      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 10:34) Posted: Wah u so daring.....this price still buy? U very very sure got merger??

 

Upcoming mega delivery in 2021:

Transocean ordered two ultra-deepwater drillships of the Jurong Espadon III design from Sembmarine back in 2014, for a price  of $540 million each. They were initially scheduled for delivery in 1Q 2018.

In October 2017, Transocean agreed with Jurong Shipyard to enhance the two drillships by increasing the hook load capacity to three million pounds.
With the upgrade, Transocean further delayed the delivery dates on each rig, with the drillships then expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2020.

On 31 Dec 2018,  Transocean secured a hefty contract with Chevron to lease one of the two units with Chevron. This rig is expected to begin its service in the Gulf of Mexico in the fourth quarter of 2021.  Chevron calls for significant upgrades on the rig, including two 20,000 pounds per square inch blowout preventers.

Worth noting, while the original price for the two drillships at the time of the order in 2014 was USD 540 million each, Transocean in its annual report last year shared that the final cost for the two units would be ~$1,93 billion ($1,05 billion for the Titan (TBN2), and $885 million for the TBN1 drillship).

Bottomline: Sembmarine is about to finally deliver the 2 drillships to Transocean in 2021, currently valued at close to USD 2 billion. Delivery is relatively secured as Transocean has secured contract for the bigger drillship to start work for Chevron in the 4th quarter of 2021 at the Gulf of Mexico. One billion here, one billion there, it would eventually add up to something.

 

Do not buy on the merger stuff. If it happens, it may not be too good for the SH either.
Instead focus on SMM' s business. Whether you believe or not ...

In fact all these hypes of merger are making me nervous. If too many jump on board because of this, the share will most likely suffer if nothing materialises even though eventually it should stabilise.But the one more roller coaster ride is no fun.

Just MHO.

pkli899      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 11:00) Posted: Aiyo, tempted to buy more..... What if.......no merger?

 

Merger or no merger, SMM will still fly. Offshore boom is already here.

If no merger is confirmed, SMM can start share buyback immediately. 

But Temasek is determined to make it happen. So, let' s see.

9 mths target- 45 to 60 cents

I am very vested, so DYODD. 
 

pkli899      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 10:34) Posted: Wah u so daring.....this price still buy? U very very sure got merger??? better      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 10:06) Posted: Just bought some at 16.6 cents.  Would be using my year end bonus to accumulate more in the coming days leading to the merger announcement. Trade safe!

 

Aiyo, tempted to buy more.....
What if.......no merger?

 

mininum 20 cts. once merged..

alleyboy      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 10:42) Posted: No risk No gain. 20 cts pkli899      ( Date: 08-Jan-2021 10:34) Posted: Wah u so daring.....this price still buy? U very very sure got merger??