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Sembmarine

My feel is the deal will go thru. The White Resolution will get enough support. Don' t forget many shareholders of SCM is also having shares in SCI. How about the foreign shareholders esp. the 
Japanese, the earlier shareholders of JURONG SHIPYARD. The investment banks will 100% support the deal. I suspect the foreign funds who dumped the stock last 2 weeks have been quietly buying back. I noted a foreign fund bought 900k during the matching at 0.425. My was scooped up at that price.

 

Actually if TM revise the deal and make it more favourable to the Semb Marine shareholders and slightly less favourable to Semb Ind shareholders... Why would the Semb Ind shareholders mind? As long as is " SLIGHTLY" more favourable to Semb Marine in order to get their shareholders agreeing to the deal and seeing the share price of Semb Marine rises is good for Semb Ind shareholders too becos in the end, Semb Ind shareholders will be having 5x more shares in Semb Marine than Semb ind and if Semb marine share price goes up, is good for Semb Ind shareholders because they will be holding many many semb marine shares.

Maybe say Semb Ind shareholders instead of getting 4.2 to 4.9 shares of Semb Marine shares say under the improved deal, only gets 4 to 4.5 shares of Semb Marine shares but if the improved deal can make Semb marine share price goes up, why not?

eg: Old deal: 4.5 shares of Semb marine but Semb marine share price trading at only 25 cents.

  New deal: only 4 shares of Semb marine but Semb marine share price trading at 30 cents cos of the better deal for them.

In the end, still benefit :)

Mayalow63      ( Date: 01-Jul-2020 22:56) Posted: I hope and wish fervently you are right. How else to precipitate action from TH by denying them to do what they wish without heeding our views? Put something better on the table for minorities for a change. josemmm123      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 21:16) Posted: If u look at past cases. Sometimes when deal failed, share price rose instead of drop.. why? becos then  investors will start speculating that Temasek will come back with a new improved deal maybe with sweeteners  to encourage  Semb Marine shareholders to support the deal. At the same time, Semb marine share price will go up due to the speculation.  Semb Ind share price may go up too becos with the new improved deal, semb marine shareholders are likely to agree to the deal, so is positive for semb ind.

 

I hope and wish fervently you are right. How else to precipitate action from TH by denying them to do what they wish without heeding our views? Put something better on the table for minorities for a change.

josemmm123      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 21:16) Posted: If u look at past cases. Sometimes when deal failed, share price rose instead of drop.. why? becos then  investors will start speculating that Temasek will come back with a new improved deal maybe with sweeteners  to encourage  Semb Marine shareholders to support the deal. At the same time, Semb marine share price will go up due to the speculation.  Semb Ind share price may go up too becos with the new improved deal, semb marine shareholders are likely to agree to the deal, so is positive for semb ind.   pasttime      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 20:35) Posted: if white wash does not go thru and the actions failed. then this counter may be introuble due to debt. it is a cyclical in the low of its cycle. if oil go back up above 60+ , rig build demand may reappear.

 

Somehow, as much as i wanna see the common man win. I think TH has something up their sleeves...they have never failed, although technically with them being recused i dont see how they can win by votes..

Djsoul80      ( Date: 29-Jun-2020 11:39) Posted: But end up, PAP will still win over the majority.. Minorities won't be heard. You go against, corporate action will still proceed. Mayalow63      ( Date: 29-Jun-2020 11:35) Posted: Same reason why we have a General Election. If you don't let your voice be heard, it will be forever silent. We small shareholders will only be heard when our votes matter at such EGMs when the substantial shareholders are recused. How many times we get trodden on because the major or controlling shareholder calls the shots and we have no say beyond the perfunctory answers at Q&A? I'm sure many of us are aware of listed companies with families in different management positions and paying handsome salaries despite declining or no profits? Rise up and be counted, I say.

 

got 2 lots at $3 10y ago, think buy and hold really faint. Veto lose dont veto also lose with dilution. Maybe should apply lots of excess at 20c to average down 

 

First time I see this stock in green since 09/06.

 

If u look at past cases. Sometimes when deal failed, share price rose instead of drop.. why?

becos then  investors will start speculating that Temasek will come back with a new improved deal maybe with sweeteners  to encourage  Semb Marine shareholders to support the deal. At the same time, Semb marine share price will go up due to the speculation.  Semb Ind share price may go up too becos with the new improved deal, semb marine shareholders are likely to agree to the deal, so is positive for semb ind.


 

pasttime      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 20:35) Posted: if white wash does not go thru and the actions failed. then this counter may be introuble due to debt. it is a cyclical in the low of its cycle. if oil go back up above 60+ , rig build demand may reappear.

 

if white wash does not go thru and the actions failed. then this counter may be introuble due to debt.
it is a cyclical in the low of its cycle.

if oil go back up above 60+ , rig build demand may reappear.

 

So if it does go towards 20cts in anticipation or rights, and then the whitewash resolution gets rejected, will it then at least double in price to 40 cts overnight? Bearing in mind it was hovering around 70cts before the SCI /SMM restructuring news came out.

tritonyeah666      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 16:34) Posted: Sell, this will go to 0.20 cents to converge with right shares price slowly and surely in next 2 months.

 

Hi erctician, you can refer to this link page 53 for shareholder information which is more complete, more interesting for your reading.

https://www.sembmarine.com/scm2016/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Sembcorp-Marine-AR2019.pdf


 

arctician1982      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 14:18) Posted: Actually its quite interesting to speculate on the end result, i went shareinvestor and check SCM has 2B shares outstanding and SCI own around 60%, means there are 800M shares subjected to vote. To pass the resolution at 50%, SCM need to secure at least 400M yes votes. Current volume of SCM is around 2M+ shares a day, so one month its around 60M shares traded, if resolution is in early Sep means we have 120M shares over 2 months, lets assume most vote yes. Current shareholder in annual report, you have Tan Kwi Kin and Wong Weng Sun who own 13M shares, generally their president, CEO and BOD will vote yes because they have vested interests. No idea how much the other BOD holds. This means among the remaining retail shareholders, SCM only need to secure 35%-40% yes vote. Just that i not sure if the vote is based on the entire retail shareholders or those attendees who are present. For fun facts and discussion only Calm20      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 13:29) Posted: Agree, we don' t sway yes or no, just a logical deduction too. Also is better not to be sway, especially for those novice investor, is hard earn money. Have a nice day arcticia

 

2 key question:

1) are u prepared to pay for the 1 for 5 rights
2) do u think SMM will recover?

Actually qn 2 is more impt. Those who refuse to cut loss is only correct when price of shares recover and when will it recover? 5yrs? 10yrs? 20yrs?

No one is always correct in investing. Must know when to cut loss and move on. U think abt it

jimmyz91      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 15:18) Posted: Bought at 0.575 previously. Everyday dropping. Should I sell or should I hold? Any advise?

 

Sell, this will go to 0.20 cents to converge with right shares price slowly and surely in next 2 months.

 

Bought at 0.575 previously. Everyday dropping. Should I sell or should I hold? Any advise?

 

Actually its quite interesting to speculate on the end result, i went shareinvestor and check SCM has 2B shares outstanding and SCI own around 60%, means there are 800M shares subjected to vote. To pass the resolution at 50%, SCM need to secure at least 400M yes votes.

Current volume of SCM is around 2M+ shares a day, so one month its around 60M shares traded, if resolution is in early Sep means we have 120M shares over 2 months, lets assume most vote yes.

Current shareholder in annual report, you have Tan Kwi Kin and Wong Weng Sun who own 13M shares, generally their president, CEO and BOD will vote yes because they have vested interests. No idea how much the other BOD holds.

This means among the remaining retail shareholders, SCM only need to secure 35%-40% yes vote.

Just that i not sure if the vote is based on the entire retail shareholders or those attendees who are present.

For fun facts and discussion only

Calm20      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 13:29) Posted: Agree, we don' t sway yes or no, just a logical deduction too. Also is better not to be sway, especially for those novice investor, is hard earn money. Have a nice day arctician arctician1982      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 13:08) Posted: actually i only trying to understand the rationale when some ppl say fund managers and retail investors are buying SMM now to vote no. it doesnt make sense.  i can understand why investors who bought long ago felt short changed and wanted to veto with a no vote...but from now till Sep, everyone in buy queue has a high tendency of yes, otherwise they wont buy in first place..rationally no investors will build position in SCM now and risk their own money just to veto..imagine if resolution get passed they need fork out a 2nd tranche again.  I am not trying to sway yes or no, just outlining a logical deductio

 

Everyday naked s.. Also got coffee money

 

Agree, we don' t sway yes or no, just a logical deduction too.
Also is better not to be sway, especially for those novice investor, is hard earn money.
Have a nice day arctician

arctician1982      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 13:08) Posted: actually i only trying to understand the rationale when some ppl say fund managers and retail investors are buying SMM now to vote no. it doesnt make sense.  i can understand why investors who bought long ago felt short changed and wanted to veto with a no vote...but from now till Sep, everyone in buy queue has a high tendency of yes, otherwise they wont buy in first place..rationally no investors will build position in SCM now and risk their own money just to veto..imagine if resolution get passed they need fork out a 2nd tranche again.  I am not trying to sway yes or no, just outlining a logical deduction Calm20      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 10:26) Posted: Hi SG Trader17, Your posting had addressed some points, adding few more here for reading interest - arctician1982 might be interested too. 1. You posting cover on the new investors who buy to join in, the existing shareholders who buy to accumulate and average down to vote in favour of the resolutions to pass, as well as those existing shareholders to cut their position from previous higher prices. 2. There might be still existing shareholders who didn' t buy more and still hold position at higher prices to veto for No. 3. Existing shareholders might also buy more to veto against demerger for some reasons, this task too can average down at current lower price. 3.1. If the veto result is No, both above objectives are achieved. 3.2. If the veto result is Yes, the initial average down at current lower price is achieved, but will receive more right issues compare to before buying in more. If to subscript for all rights, will further average-down else sell the right issues in market to encash. In both cases, shareholders can achieve average down from buying more whether veto result is No or Yes. Except for later case, have to fort out another sum, $1k for each lot to subscript for 5 rights, else sell to encash.  Just an opinion, if is buying more for veto No, why not veto for Yes and save this first cash for the right subscription? At SCM 50 cents earlier, with 2 lots total at $1k, can actually subscribe for 5 rights, except for those who prefer not to buy more and veto for NO. 4. Don' t forget those shorties who buy and sell for short term gain. Your last half remarks sound logic, instead of accepting TH as a strong backer, to wait for another white knight or other option might not even surface in another near term. There might be other good reasons for the objection to this demerger which is beyond surface understanding. The time from the demerger proposal to date, both SCI and SCM prices have both varies in down-trend, current equation will also affect sentiment and decision. Therefore all comments at above is just 2 cents opinions Before the coin is toss, Investment is for own judgement at own risk.

 

actually i only trying to understand the rationale when some ppl say fund managers and retail investors are buying SMM now to vote no. it doesnt make sense. 

i can understand why investors who bought long ago felt short changed and wanted to veto with a no vote...but from now till Sep, everyone in buy queue has a high tendency of yes, otherwise they wont buy in first place..rationally no investors will build position in SCM now and risk their own money just to veto..imagine if resolution get passed they need fork out a 2nd tranche again. 

I am not trying to sway yes or no, just outlining a logical deduction

Calm20      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 10:26) Posted: Hi SG Trader17, Your posting had addressed some points, adding few more here for reading interest - arctician1982 might be interested too. 1. You posting cover on the new investors who buy to join in, the existing shareholders who buy to accumulate and average down to vote in favour of the resolutions to pass, as well as those existing shareholders to cut their position from previous higher prices. 2. There might be still existing shareholders who didn' t buy more and still hold position at higher prices to veto for No. 3. Existing shareholders might also buy more to veto against demerger for some reasons, this task too can average down at current lower price. 3.1. If the veto result is No, both above objectives are achieved. 3.2. If the veto result is Yes, the initial average down at current lower price is achieved, but will receive more right issues compare to before buying in more. If to subscript for all rights, will further average-down else sell the right issues in market to encash. In both cases, shareholders can achieve average down from buying more whether veto result is No or Yes. Except for later case, have to fort out another sum, $1k for each lot to subscript for 5 rights, else sell to encash.  Just an opinion, if is buying more for veto No, why not veto for Yes and save this first cash for the right subscription? At SCM 50 cents earlier, with 2 lots total at $1k, can actually subscribe for 5 rights, except for those who prefer not to buy more and veto for NO. 4. Don' t forget those shorties who buy and sell for short term gain. Your last half remarks sound logic, instead of accepting TH as a strong backer, to wait for another white knight or other option might not even surface in another near term. There might be other good reasons for the objection to this demerger which is beyond surface understanding. The time from the demerger proposal to date, both SCI and SCM prices have both varies in down-trend, current equation will also affect sentiment and decision. Therefore all comments at above is just 2 cents opinions Before the coin is toss, Investment is for own judgement at own risk.   SgTrader17      ( Date: 26-Jun-2020 20:06) Posted: The low prices of SCM currently will probably have new investors buying and accumulating from those "old investors" whom are selling and cutting their positions from their previous buys at higher prices. This will means a possible switch of positions to more investors holding at lower share prices and willing to subscribe to the rights as it will be an advantage to them compared to those who bought at previous higher prices. Also, how many whom bought at previous high prices are actually still holding and actually didn't buy in more shares at current low prices to average down their positions? If you do not intend to vote for the resolution to pass, you probably will have chosen to exit your positions. You would not want to stay in your position and let your holdings be diluted when the resolution got pass through. In other words, those whom are holding, those whom average down their prices, and those buying in new position at below 50 cents, together with those also owing SCI shares and SCM shares, will want to vote for the resolution to pass through. It does not mean SCM will turnaround after the resolution pass through, but that is the better position for the company to have higher chances of survival as it will have the backing of Temasek as it's shareholders. Holding to SCM without a strong backing will be a "anything can happen" kind of scenario in the future. I doubt SCM shareholders will want to hold the shares with no clear visible paths ahead and no strong shareholders behind it to support it's future path of survival. Don't need speculate about SCM and Keppel, because that will be for Temasek to deal with it if they become the shareholders after that. We only need to choose our path in Sept. Right? That's my two cents opinions. Do share your views too. Have a nice weekends all, and be safe.

 

Hi SG Trader17,
Your posting had addressed some points, adding few more here for reading interest - arctician1982 might be interested too.

1. You posting cover on the new investors who buy to join in, the existing shareholders who buy to accumulate and average down to vote in favour of the resolutions to pass, as well as those existing shareholders to cut their position from previous higher prices.

2. There might be still existing shareholders who didn' t buy more and still hold position at higher prices to veto for No.

3. Existing shareholders might also buy more to veto against demerger for some reasons, this task too can average down at current lower price.
3.1. If the veto result is No, both above objectives are achieved.
3.2. If the veto result is Yes, the initial average down at current lower price is achieved, but will receive more right issues compare to before buying in more. If to subscript for all rights, will further average-down else sell the right issues in market to encash.

In both cases, shareholders can achieve average down from buying more whether veto result is No or Yes. Except for later case, have to fort out another sum, $1k for each lot to subscript for 5 rights, else sell to encash. 

Just an opinion, if is buying more for veto No, why not veto for Yes and save this first cash for the right subscription? At SCM 50 cents earlier, with 2 lots total at $1k, can actually subscribe for 5 rights, except for those who prefer not to buy more and veto for NO.

4. Don' t forget those shorties who buy and sell for short term gain.

Your last half remarks sound logic, instead of accepting TH as a strong backer, to wait for another white knight or other option might not even surface in another near term.

There might be other good reasons for the objection to this demerger which is beyond surface understanding.

The time from the demerger proposal to date, both SCI and SCM prices have both varies in down-trend, current equation will also affect sentiment and decision.

Therefore all comments at above is just 2 cents opinions Before the coin is toss, Investment is for own judgement at own risk.









 

SgTrader17      ( Date: 26-Jun-2020 20:06) Posted: The low prices of SCM currently will probably have new investors buying and accumulating from those "old investors" whom are selling and cutting their positions from their previous buys at higher prices. This will means a possible switch of positions to more investors holding at lower share prices and willing to subscribe to the rights as it will be an advantage to them compared to those who bought at previous higher prices. Also, how many whom bought at previous high prices are actually still holding and actually didn't buy in more shares at current low prices to average down their positions? If you do not intend to vote for the resolution to pass, you probably will have chosen to exit your positions. You would not want to stay in your position and let your holdings be diluted when the resolution got pass through. In other words, those whom are holding, those whom average down their prices, and those buying in new position at below 50 cents, together with those also owing SCI shares and SCM shares, will want to vote for the resolution to pass through. It does not mean SCM will turnaround after the resolution pass through, but that is the better position for the company to have higher chances of survival as it will have the backing of Temasek as it's shareholders. Holding to SCM without a strong backing will be a "anything can happen" kind of scenario in the future. I doubt SCM shareholders will want to hold the shares with no clear visible paths ahead and no strong shareholders behind it to support it's future path of survival. Don't need speculate about SCM and Keppel, because that will be for Temasek to deal with it if they become the shareholders after that. We only need to choose our path in Sept. Right? That's my two cents opinions. Do share your views too. Have a nice weekends all, and be safe.

 

YES , with rights issue ... alot of money problem solved ... Temasek will scoop up all rights shares taking major stake

arctician1982      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 09:48) Posted: looking at keep share price of $6 vs proposed takeover of $7+, there is a risk it might not go through. Generally having temasek as a backer is always better to none. SCM has to pay back the $1.5B loan and $4B debt somehow.... danger      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 09:33) Posted: If Temasek buyout of major stake in Keppel is called off .... then the merger of sembmarine and keppel offshore will not materialize That case , sembmarine shareholders better VOTE IN FAVOR of the SCI/SMM demerger , as temasek will not offer any other better price or deal to privatise SMM since IF keppel offshore merger deal is off .  So current arrangment to strengthen the balance sheet of SMM and with temasek taking a majority stake in SMM is best option .

 

looking at keep share price of $6 vs proposed takeover of $7+, there is a risk it might not go through. Generally having temasek as a backer is always better to none. SCM has to pay back the $1.5B loan and $4B debt somehow....

danger      ( Date: 30-Jun-2020 09:33) Posted: If Temasek buyout of major stake in Keppel is called off .... then the merger of sembmarine and keppel offshore will not materialize That case , sembmarine shareholders better VOTE IN FAVOR of the SCI/SMM demerger , as temasek will not offer any other better price or deal to privatise SMM since IF keppel offshore merger deal is off .  So current arrangment to strengthen the balance sheet of SMM and with temasek taking a majority stake in SMM is best option .