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Raffles Medical

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Rocket888
    06-Dec-2024 16:46  
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an accounting treatment is not going to change a business fundamentals. Healthcare is a funny business, to make big money, you need more dying and illstricken people.
RMG home market is suffering, indonesians not coming anymore, need to rely on gov contracts to survive.
 
 
alexvar
    06-Dec-2024 13:01  
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" From 2018 to 2023, Raffles Med reported total cumulative fair value gains from Investment Properties were a  mere 3.3%,  while the generated revenues from these properties increased  by a whopping 55%  (from S$29.2 million in 2018 to S$45.2 million in 2023).

As a result, RMG investment properties rental yield % (annual revenue divided by carrying values) has steadily increased, reaching an impressive 18.4% in 2023 compared to 9.4% in 2018.
In contrast, the local hospital Parkway Life REIT, has averaged a ~6% annual rental yield during the same period, due to its regular fair value gains on Singapore hospitals.
 

In 2023, Raffles Med sold one Singapore property from its PPE portfolio for S$518,000, which was a  200 percent premium  over its book value of S$174,000. This further supports our thesis that RMG&rsquo s prime Singapore properties are being severely under-appraised.

It is also worth noting that RMG changed its Singapore appraiser in 2021, moving from Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) to Colliers International.

The Group owns prime real estate in Singapore, which accounts for the majority of the Group&rsquo s net asset value, specifically through its Property, Plant, and Equipment (PPE) properties and Investment Properties (IPs).
These Singapore properties make up approximately 60 percent of Raffles Medical net tangible asset value, based on our estimates.
A correct and market-reflective valuation of these properties is critical for the benefit of all shareholders. "

DYODD
 
 
alexvar
    06-Dec-2024 12:59  
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In November, Sakura research published the 3-part report detailing shortcomings and poor management at Raffles Medical Group (RMG), specifically related to
  the absurdly under-appraised prime Singapore properties ripe for mark-to-market gains,
the shocking underperformance of RMG China hospitals compared to IHH Healthcare China,
the capital-intensive and loss-making insurance segment,
and the unannounced departures of senior executives.


https://sakuraresearch.com/?p=312

RMG&rsquo s June 2024 net tangible asset value of S$1.012b includes S$316m in cash and approximately S$624m (61% of NTAV) in prime Singapore real estate assets:
S$246m in investment properties, which generate rental income,
and approximately S$377m in PPE properties.

A correct and market-reflective valuation of these properties is critical for the benefit of all shareholders.

" Based on a Net Tangible Book Value peer (IHH Healthcare) comparison valuation, and under-appraised prime Singapore properties ripe for mark-to-market fair value gains,
we reckon RMG should be trading at a market cap of over S$5 billion, instead of its current market cap of ~S$1.6 billion only."

 
 

 
Joelton
    06-Dec-2024 11:35  
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RHB expects slower reduction of losses in Raffles Medical&rsquo s insurance business, lowers TP to 90 cents
 
RHB Bank Singapore analyst Shekhar Jaiswal has kept &ldquo neutral&rdquo on Raffles Medical Group BSL (RMG) with a lower target price of 90 cents after fine-tuning and trimming the company&rsquo s FY2024 to FY2026 earnings by 12%-7%.
 
This is largely to account for slower reduction in the company&rsquo s insurance business losses. During its 1HFY2024 ended June results briefing, RMG noted that it expects a strong ramp-up in its insurance business in the coming years. 
 
RHB believes this will be aided by more people taking up private healthcare insurance to cover the rising healthcare costs. Nevertheless, the company guided that if the current business situation of a higher loss ratio prevails, the insurance business could report losses for up to three years. 
 
&ldquo We had earlier expected a rapid turnaround in its insurance business, but are slightly more cautious on our expectations now,&rdquo Jaiswal says. 
 
RMG had also announced the retirement of its CFO Sheila Ng, effective November 12. While the company searches for a new CFO, Kimmy Goh, its long-time financial controller, will assume the responsibilities of that position. Jaiswal does not see this change in management as a reason for disruption in the company&rsquo s business operations. 
 
RHB also highlights that since late February, RMG&rsquo s executive chairman Dr Loo Choon Yong has been gradually increasing his total stake in the group. Loo&rsquo s holdings have increased to 55.59% as of the end of November, from 53.02% early this year.
 
For the longer term, RMG&rsquo s growth would be driven by overseas operations. That said, RHB sees limited positive rerating catalysts in the near term.
 
 
 
MambaFinancial89
    05-Dec-2024 15:09  
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RHB expects slower reduction of losses in Raffles Medicals insurance business, lowers TP to 90 cents

RHB Bank Singapore analyst Shekhar Jaiswal has kept neutral on Raffles Medical Group with a lower target price of 90 cents after fine-tuning and trimming the companys FY2024 to FY2026 earnings by 12%-7%. This is largely to account for slower reduction in the companys insurance business losses. During its 1HFY2024 ended June results briefing, RMG noted that it expects a strong ramp-up in its insurance business in the coming years. 

RHB believes this will be aided by more people taking up private healthcare insurance to cover the rising healthcare costs. Nevertheless, the company guided that if the current business situation of a higher loss ratio prevails, the insurance business could report losses for up to three years. We had earlier expected a rapid turnaround in its insurance business, but are slightly more cautious on our expectations now, Jaiswal says. 

RMG had also announced the retirement of its CFO Sheila Ng, effective November 12. While the company searches for a new CFO, Kimmy Goh, its long-time financial controller, will assume the responsibilities of that position. Jaiswal does not see this change in management as a reason for disruption in the company&rsquo s business operations. RHB also highlights that since late February, RMGs executive chairman Dr Loo Choon Yong has been gradually increasing his total stake in the group. Loos holdings have increased to 55.59% as of the end of November, from 53.02% early this year.

For the longer term, RMGs growth would be driven by overseas operations. That said, RHB sees limited positive rerating catalysts in the near term.

As at 10.30am, shares in RMG are trading at an unchanged 88.5 cents.
 
 
alexvar
    03-Dec-2024 22:16  
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https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/brokers-take-cgs-international-downgrades-ihh-hold-dbs-maintains-buy-call

Brokers take: CGS International downgrades IHH Healthcare to hold, DBS maintains - buy call.

The earlier-than-expected completion of Mount Elizabeth Hospital renovation spells &ldquo margin pressure&rdquo for IHH Healthcare&rsquo s Singapore business over the next 3 quarters, said CGS International analyst Tay Wee Kuang. 

&ldquo This will mean taking out half the bed capacity in the hospital over the next three quarters, which we think could have a significant impact on profitability in Singapore given its total bed capacity of 790 beds across four hospitals,&rdquo said Tay.

Mount Elizabeth closes a lot of beds for renovations means a great win for Raffles Hospital in Singapore!
DYODD
 

 
alexvar
    03-Dec-2024 16:28  
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The Business Times:
Big Pharma&rsquo s bet on China biotech is a rare trade bright spot.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/big-pharmas-bet-china-biotech-rare-trade-bright-spot

As Raffles Med has a large presence in China, hopefully their revenues can shoot up!
 
 
Joelton
    02-Dec-2024 10:11  
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Raffles Medical Group
Between Nov 22 and 27, Raffles Medical Group : BSL +1.75% executive chairman Loo Choon Yong acquired 2.4 million shares at an average price of S$0.859 per share. This increased his total interest from 55.5 per cent to 55.63 per cent.
 
Since February, Dr Loo has gradually increased his total interest in the stock from 53.02 per cent.
 
As the leading integrated private healthcare provider in Asia, the group operates in 14 cities across five markets with four hospitals and more than 100 clinics, serving 2.8 million patients annually. The Raffles hospitals segment includes the group&rsquo s flagship private tertiary hospital in Singapore, as well as a growing network of medical facilities in Singapore, China and Vietnam, including Raffles Hospital Chongqing, Raffles Hospital Shanghai, Raffles Hospital Beijing, and American International Hospital.
 
Back in Jul 29, the group reported that the revenue from Raffles hospitals grew in both Singapore and China in H1 FY2024. The group noted that, earlier this year, it had added 176 beds to its capacity and started receiving patients to support the the Ministry of Health&rsquo s transitional care facilities (TCF) programme.
 
Under the TCF programme, the group also continues to operate step-down care facilities at Singapore Expo, in addition to TCF at Raffles Hospital Singapore.
 
 
n3wbie
    01-Dec-2024 13:09  
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Thanks for sharing the Sakura Research. Was also taking a look at the annual reports of RMG and IHH. Raffles Hospital sits on leasehold land with 99 years from 1979 till 2078 so there is 54 years of lease left on the land. Mt E Orchard is till 2075 (51 years left), Mt E Novena is till 2108 (84 years left) while Gleneagles is freehold. 

The point on revenue yield is however quite an interesting comparison across the region.

alexvar      ( Date: 29-Nov-2024 10:04) Posted:

it is not about property play, it is about fair market value of prime SG properties!

it is about possibly illegal under-appraisal of prime singapore properties, which generate higher yields every year, yet RMG property fair values are getting lower and lower.

Clueless minority shareholders suffer, while Dr Loo keeps buying the rich company for pennies.


" Investment Properties. From 2018 to 2023, the Groups reported total fair value gains from investment properties has been  around 3% net, while their generated revenues have risen by about  55% (from S$29.2m in 2018 to S$45.2 in 2023). As such, RMGs investment properties rental yield (annual revenues divided by the carrying values) has been increasing steadily from 2018 to 2023, achieving an impressive 18.4% rental yield in 2023 vs. 9.4% in 2018.

Meanwhile, the local hospital REIT (Parkway Life REIT) Singapore rental yields have averaged 6% annually during the same period due to the REITs regular fair value gains of its properties. Again, the rental yield comparison implies that RMG investment properties carrying value is about 3x lower than a local peer, supporting our thesis of ridiculous under-appraisal of RMGs Singapore investment properties."

" Curiously, RMG has changed its Singapore properties appraiser in 2021, from Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) to Colliers International."

 
 
finjungle
    29-Nov-2024 12:03  
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Please send the link to BT
Thanks

alexvar      ( Date: 29-Nov-2024 11:41) Posted:

apparently, they have recently done a previous shorting stock activism on Ifast corp, and were interviewed by the busines times.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/ifast-analysts-refute-short-seller-claims-business-unsustainable

 

 
alexvar
    29-Nov-2024 11:41  
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apparently, they have recently done a previous shorting stock activism on Ifast corp, and were interviewed by the busines times.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/ifast-analysts-refute-short-seller-claims-business-unsustainable
 
 
finjungle
    29-Nov-2024 11:17  
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Does anyone know or heard of Sakura Research?

 

Rocket888      ( Date: 29-Nov-2024 10:17) Posted:

the you need the Straits times to just write only one article by ven about the undervalue, then the shares will guarantee rocket shoot up like wee hur.
Who is a bigger and richer than Mr Market.

 
 
Rocket888
    29-Nov-2024 10:17  
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the you need the Straits times to just write only one article by ven about the undervalue, then the shares will guarantee rocket shoot up like wee hur.
Who is a bigger and richer than Mr Market.
 
 
alexvar
    29-Nov-2024 10:04  
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it is not about property play, it is about fair market value of prime SG properties!

it is about possibly illegal under-appraisal of prime singapore properties, which generate higher yields every year, yet RMG property fair values are getting lower and lower.

Clueless minority shareholders suffer, while Dr Loo keeps buying the rich company for pennies.


" Investment Properties. From 2018 to 2023, the Groups reported total fair value gains from investment properties has been  around 3% net, while their generated revenues have risen by about  55% (from S$29.2m in 2018 to S$45.2 in 2023). As such, RMGs investment properties rental yield (annual revenues divided by the carrying values) has been increasing steadily from 2018 to 2023, achieving an impressive 18.4% rental yield in 2023 vs. 9.4% in 2018.

Meanwhile, the local hospital REIT (Parkway Life REIT) Singapore rental yields have averaged 6% annually during the same period due to the REITs regular fair value gains of its properties. Again, the rental yield comparison implies that RMG investment properties carrying value is about 3x lower than a local peer, supporting our thesis of ridiculous under-appraisal of RMGs Singapore investment properties."

" Curiously, RMG has changed its Singapore properties appraiser in 2021, from Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) to Colliers International."
 
 
Rocket888
    29-Nov-2024 02:05  
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Sakura probably new to RMG. RMG is not a property play by Loo 's choice. they don't want that kind of shareholders, like IHH has. ihh more a real estate company than a healthcare co., that why ihh is so much in debt.
 

 
shk363
    28-Nov-2024 15:20  
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who is the sakura analyst??

alexvar      ( Date: 28-Nov-2024 13:08) Posted:

Folks at sakura research have published a long 3-part report on Raffles med calling for strategic review at the Group.

their target price more than S$2.6

has anyone read it yet? what u think?
DYODD

https://sakuraresearch.com/?p=207

Executive Summary

RMG June 2024 net tangible asset value of S$1.012b includes S$316m in cash, and approximately S$624m (61% of NTAV) in prime Singapore real estate assets: S$246m in investment properties, which generate rental income, and approximately S$377m in PPE properties.
RMG shares are currently trading at a 52-week low, with a market cap of S$1.6 billion, while the local stock benchmark (STI) is near its 52-week high. Aggressive share purchases by the Founder/Executive Director, increasing his ownership to more than 55%, have recently caught market&rsquo s attention, including ours.  Our diligence has uncovered interesting facts regarding RMG&rsquo s Singapore properties.

The Crown Jewel of the Group, Flagship Hospital at Bugis Downtown, consists of 2 buildings with total gross floor area of 530,000 sqft and has a carrying value of  S$402m  as of the end 2023. Peer comparison analysis, particularly with IHH Healthcare (operator of Mount Elizabeth, Gleneagles, and Parkway East hospitals) in Singapore, indicates that Raffles Hospital&rsquo s buildings are more than three times newer, built more recently with modern construction designs, and benefit from a strategic Downtown location. Additionally, Raffles Hospital boasts superior asset efficiency, with higher revenue yields. Furthermore, land and construction costs in Singapore have risen significantly since the 2010s. As a result, the carrying value of the Crown Jewel should be adjusted to reflect its market value, with an estimated fair value upgrade to S$1,046 million (i.e., S$1,974 per sqft, compared to the carrying value of S$760 per sqft as of the end of 2023).

Investment Properties. From 2018 to 2023, the Group&rsquo s reported total fair value gains from investment properties has been  around 3% net, while their generated revenues have risen by about  55% (from S$29.2m in 2018 to S$45.2 in 2023). As such, RMG&rsquo s investment properties rental yield (annual revenues divided by the carrying values) has been increasing steadily from 2018 to 2023, achieving an impressive 18.4% rental yield in 2023 vs. 9.4% in 2018. Meanwhile, the local hospital REIT (Parkway Life REIT) Singapore rental yields have averaged 6% annually during the same period due to the REIT&rsquo s regular fair value gains of its properties. Again, the rental yield comparison implies that the Group&rsquo s investment properties carrying value is about 3x lower than a local peer, supporting our thesis of ridiculous under-appraisal of RMG&rsquo s Singapore investment properties.
Raffles Holland V Shopping Mall (GFA of 64,706 sqft, with 83% of the asset used as an investment property by the Group) is currently valued at S$94 million on the balance sheet (at S$1,459 per sqft). However, we believe it&rsquo s fair market value is closer to S$188 million (at S$2,918 per sqft) due to its higher rental yield, strategic location, and excellent connectivity.

RMG also owns 6 HDB shophouses as part of PPE, with a total gross floor area of 987 sqm (10,624 sqft), and total carrying value of $8.265m as of end-2023, instead of our estimate of S$24.7m. During 2023, the Group sold one unit. The sale price was S$518,000, a 200% premium over the book value of S$174,000, again supporting our thesis of ridiculous under-appraisal of RMG&rsquo s SG properties.

Conclusion
Overall, our study shows that RMG Singapore properties are clearly and persistently under- appraised. We estimate a pre-tax fair value gain of approximately S$774 million for RMG&rsquo s Singapore properties (or S$642 million after-tax, reflecting a 63% premium over RMG&rsquo s net tangible asset value of S$1.012 billion) based on a mark-to-market analysis.
Curiously, RMG has changed its Singapore appraiser in 2021, from Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) to Colliers International. Given the significant under-appraisal of prime Singapore real estate assets since 2018 compared to the local peers and RMG shares at 52wk lows, it is concerning that there has not been a single share buyback to benefit all shareholders since December 2023. However, the largest shareholder/Executive Chairman has been steadily increasing his stake in RMG.

Appraisers should properly value the company&rsquo s prime real estate assets by employing  a local peer comparison approach, assessing revenue generation capacities, rental yields, and comparable market sales. Relying solely on  Level-3 fair value assumptions and estimates, which have been in place well before COVID19, is no longer sufficient. A more accurate and market-reflective valuation is essential to ensure that all shareholders benefit from the true value of the company&rsquo s prime assets (not just the controlling shareholder/Executive Chairman Dr. Loo).

DYODD.

 
 
alexvar
    28-Nov-2024 13:08  
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Folks at sakura research have published a long 3-part report on Raffles med calling for strategic review at the Group.

their target price more than S$2.6

has anyone read it yet? what u think?
DYODD

https://sakuraresearch.com/?p=207

Executive Summary

RMG June 2024 net tangible asset value of S$1.012b includes S$316m in cash, and approximately S$624m (61% of NTAV) in prime Singapore real estate assets: S$246m in investment properties, which generate rental income, and approximately S$377m in PPE properties.
RMG shares are currently trading at a 52-week low, with a market cap of S$1.6 billion, while the local stock benchmark (STI) is near its 52-week high. Aggressive share purchases by the Founder/Executive Director, increasing his ownership to more than 55%, have recently caught market&rsquo s attention, including ours.  Our diligence has uncovered interesting facts regarding RMG&rsquo s Singapore properties.

The Crown Jewel of the Group, Flagship Hospital at Bugis Downtown, consists of 2 buildings with total gross floor area of 530,000 sqft and has a carrying value of  S$402m  as of the end 2023. Peer comparison analysis, particularly with IHH Healthcare (operator of Mount Elizabeth, Gleneagles, and Parkway East hospitals) in Singapore, indicates that Raffles Hospital&rsquo s buildings are more than three times newer, built more recently with modern construction designs, and benefit from a strategic Downtown location. Additionally, Raffles Hospital boasts superior asset efficiency, with higher revenue yields. Furthermore, land and construction costs in Singapore have risen significantly since the 2010s. As a result, the carrying value of the Crown Jewel should be adjusted to reflect its market value, with an estimated fair value upgrade to S$1,046 million (i.e., S$1,974 per sqft, compared to the carrying value of S$760 per sqft as of the end of 2023).

Investment Properties. From 2018 to 2023, the Group&rsquo s reported total fair value gains from investment properties has been  around 3% net, while their generated revenues have risen by about  55% (from S$29.2m in 2018 to S$45.2 in 2023). As such, RMG&rsquo s investment properties rental yield (annual revenues divided by the carrying values) has been increasing steadily from 2018 to 2023, achieving an impressive 18.4% rental yield in 2023 vs. 9.4% in 2018. Meanwhile, the local hospital REIT (Parkway Life REIT) Singapore rental yields have averaged 6% annually during the same period due to the REIT&rsquo s regular fair value gains of its properties. Again, the rental yield comparison implies that the Group&rsquo s investment properties carrying value is about 3x lower than a local peer, supporting our thesis of ridiculous under-appraisal of RMG&rsquo s Singapore investment properties.
Raffles Holland V Shopping Mall (GFA of 64,706 sqft, with 83% of the asset used as an investment property by the Group) is currently valued at S$94 million on the balance sheet (at S$1,459 per sqft). However, we believe it&rsquo s fair market value is closer to S$188 million (at S$2,918 per sqft) due to its higher rental yield, strategic location, and excellent connectivity.

RMG also owns 6 HDB shophouses as part of PPE, with a total gross floor area of 987 sqm (10,624 sqft), and total carrying value of $8.265m as of end-2023, instead of our estimate of S$24.7m. During 2023, the Group sold one unit. The sale price was S$518,000, a 200% premium over the book value of S$174,000, again supporting our thesis of ridiculous under-appraisal of RMG&rsquo s SG properties.

Conclusion
Overall, our study shows that RMG Singapore properties are clearly and persistently under- appraised. We estimate a pre-tax fair value gain of approximately S$774 million for RMG&rsquo s Singapore properties (or S$642 million after-tax, reflecting a 63% premium over RMG&rsquo s net tangible asset value of S$1.012 billion) based on a mark-to-market analysis.
Curiously, RMG has changed its Singapore appraiser in 2021, from Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) to Colliers International. Given the significant under-appraisal of prime Singapore real estate assets since 2018 compared to the local peers and RMG shares at 52wk lows, it is concerning that there has not been a single share buyback to benefit all shareholders since December 2023. However, the largest shareholder/Executive Chairman has been steadily increasing his stake in RMG.

Appraisers should properly value the company&rsquo s prime real estate assets by employing  a local peer comparison approach, assessing revenue generation capacities, rental yields, and comparable market sales. Relying solely on  Level-3 fair value assumptions and estimates, which have been in place well before COVID19, is no longer sufficient. A more accurate and market-reflective valuation is essential to ensure that all shareholders benefit from the true value of the company&rsquo s prime assets (not just the controlling shareholder/Executive Chairman Dr. Loo).

DYODD.
 
 
Joelton
    26-Nov-2024 10:04  
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Raffles Medical Group chairman buys 1 mil shares for $861,000
Dr Loo Choon Yong, chairman and a substantial shareholder of Raffles Medical Group BSL , has acquired 1 million shares for $861,000, or 86.1 cents apiece. 
 
The shares were bought via the market on Nov 22. 
 
Following the transaction, Loo&rsquo s total stake in the group has risen to 55.554% from 55.5% previously. 
 
 
Joelton
    25-Nov-2024 10:00  
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Raffles Medical Group
On Nov 18, Raffles Medical Group : BSL 0% executive chairman Loo Choon Yong acquired 150,000 shares at S$0.865 per share. This increased his total interest from 55.49 per cent to 55.4 per cent. Since February, he has been increasing his total interest in the stock from 53.02 per cent. His last acquisition was on Sep 26, for 470,000 shares at an average price of S$0.889 apiece. 
 
 
Joelton
    11-Nov-2024 11:26  
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