Post Reply
141-160 of 297
Haha... Bro... U still harping on the can of worms huh?
You may be right that they are conserving cash...
They did give div, and DFI is yielding at over 8%.. I don't think giving more than 8% is responsible usage of money..
Thank you for your well wishing. Hopefully the tax case is non material and u can join us as long term investor!
You may be right that they are conserving cash...
They did give div, and DFI is yielding at over 8%.. I don't think giving more than 8% is responsible usage of money..
Thank you for your well wishing. Hopefully the tax case is non material and u can join us as long term investor!
tonylim70 ( Date: 26-Apr-2018 06:56) Posted:
|
any source ? how u know is May?
thanks
thanks
alexchew ( Date: 26-Apr-2018 07:21) Posted:
|
Tax case already went to court, waiting decision in May. Lets see what happens then.
tonylim70 ( Date: 26-Apr-2018 06:56) Posted:
|
Bro, too much cash and they dun give dividend?? and lately no share buyback even though they have cash. Why?
Reasons: They are conserving the cash to pay up for the tax court case. And potentially can of worms as the tax authority may go after the rest of their 39 outlets.
U see they never update or clarify the tax case in their annoucement. Usually if they winning the tax court case, they will annouce that they are winning to reassure the shareholders.
Also the sell down from 28 cents to 21 cents .. is like a falling knife.
Take care bro
Reasons: They are conserving the cash to pay up for the tax court case. And potentially can of worms as the tax authority may go after the rest of their 39 outlets.
U see they never update or clarify the tax case in their annoucement. Usually if they winning the tax court case, they will annouce that they are winning to reassure the shareholders.
Also the sell down from 28 cents to 21 cents .. is like a falling knife.
Take care bro
kelvintan84 ( Date: 26-Apr-2018 06:41) Posted:
|
Revenue increased 14% qoq. yoy - 2%..
But net income decrease due to unrealised forex losses (riggint appreciated against Usd, they kept most of their cash in Usd)
Decent results, the qoq increase suggest biz turning ard. Possibly from their Thai border.
The main issue remains that they are sitting on too much cash (in Usd).. So much so that the fluctuation of currency actually affects the net profit significantly... It's a happy problem, nonetheless still a problem...
But net income decrease due to unrealised forex losses (riggint appreciated against Usd, they kept most of their cash in Usd)
Decent results, the qoq increase suggest biz turning ard. Possibly from their Thai border.
The main issue remains that they are sitting on too much cash (in Usd).. So much so that the fluctuation of currency actually affects the net profit significantly... It's a happy problem, nonetheless still a problem...
kelvintan84 ( Date: 26-Apr-2018 06:30) Posted:
|
Haven't check... Hows the result?
tonylim70 ( Date: 26-Apr-2018 05:54) Posted:
|
Full year results out:
1) No dividends
2) No clarifications to the tax court case
1) No dividends
2) No clarifications to the tax court case
tonylim70 ( Date: 06-Apr-2018 18:39) Posted:
|
It would be very exciting if one day u see trading halt with this counter followed by annoucement " Matters relating to custom"
If win , u will see 28 cents again and perhaps more.. If lose u will see the share price tank to 18 cents and perhaps even lower the next day..
Wow.. this type of excitement too much for me :)
If win , u will see 28 cents again and perhaps more.. If lose u will see the share price tank to 18 cents and perhaps even lower the next day..
Wow.. this type of excitement too much for me :)
April annoucement of results is the key liao...
Positive catalyst: 1) Win tax court case, 2) Dividend of more than 0.5 cents declared, 3) HK listing, 4) Share buyback starts, 5) Declare the use of cash for acquisition of overseas duty free business. ==> 1), 3) and 5) are huge catalyst
Negative catalyst: 1) No update (uncertainties) or Lose tax court case, 2) No Dividend or very little dividend declared, 3) Lousy results aka lousy profit, 4) No share buyback even after blackout period (after annoucement of results) ==> 1), 2) and 3) are huge
Positive: Share price go back to 28 cents, Negative: Share price drop to 18 cents.
Buy at 23 cents , either u profit 5 cents or lose 5 cents..
Just my prediction.
Positive catalyst: 1) Win tax court case, 2) Dividend of more than 0.5 cents declared, 3) HK listing, 4) Share buyback starts, 5) Declare the use of cash for acquisition of overseas duty free business. ==> 1), 3) and 5) are huge catalyst
Negative catalyst: 1) No update (uncertainties) or Lose tax court case, 2) No Dividend or very little dividend declared, 3) Lousy results aka lousy profit, 4) No share buyback even after blackout period (after annoucement of results) ==> 1), 2) and 3) are huge
Positive: Share price go back to 28 cents, Negative: Share price drop to 18 cents.
Buy at 23 cents , either u profit 5 cents or lose 5 cents..
Just my prediction.
kelvintan84 ( Date: 09-Apr-2018 22:14) Posted:
|
And to add, i think they will lose the court case. But I differ from Bro Tony's opinion that this will lead to collection of tax from all the other store.
And I also think there will be no dividend this quarter (if they still give their yield will be over 10%), there will also be no announcement on the tax case because the court is busy with mahathir.
What u can look out for, (and I also hoping) is any use of cash pile and news on secondary listing. Especially since they failed in 2015 due to the parent company owning over 75% of Dutyfree. Notice that now they reduce their holdings to 74.++% so as to meet the criteria for minimum 25% public float to be listed in Hk.
And I also think there will be no dividend this quarter (if they still give their yield will be over 10%), there will also be no announcement on the tax case because the court is busy with mahathir.
What u can look out for, (and I also hoping) is any use of cash pile and news on secondary listing. Especially since they failed in 2015 due to the parent company owning over 75% of Dutyfree. Notice that now they reduce their holdings to 74.++% so as to meet the criteria for minimum 25% public float to be listed in Hk.
kelvintan84 ( Date: 09-Apr-2018 22:14) Posted:
|
I'm one of those who bought recently.
1) The fundamentals of the company did not because of the tax court case, it affects only 1 store. (I understand you SUSPECT more store will kena). The fundamentals changed because najib implemented GST on some of the stores traditionally used to be duty free.
2) even with the implementation of GST on some store, this company still presents value. (I know full well of the impact of GST on some stores and the products they carry)
3) there is an established share buy back policy and they will buy back shares upon approval of board (subjected to out of blackout period)
4) cash is now their strategic resource (I quote from the IR). I agree, because this is probably the only catalyst this company has in the short term apart from possible secondary listing.
The fall in share price from 40+ cents is not without reasons, the plunge in Thai border biz, the implementation of GST are the main reasons. Some of these problems are one off, some are here to stay. You need to develop your own financial model to determine the fair value of this company. I did, and so I bought in at certain price.
I will only react if, as per Tony Bro suspect (and become reality) more stores kena tax recall or if Thai king die again. If not whatever happened had been priced in, this is my personal opinion.
Stocks fluctuate from time to time and deviate from fundamentals in short term, if you do enough work and value the company based solely on facts and figures, you probably will have more correct picks then misfortune.
Vested.....
1) The fundamentals of the company did not because of the tax court case, it affects only 1 store. (I understand you SUSPECT more store will kena). The fundamentals changed because najib implemented GST on some of the stores traditionally used to be duty free.
2) even with the implementation of GST on some store, this company still presents value. (I know full well of the impact of GST on some stores and the products they carry)
3) there is an established share buy back policy and they will buy back shares upon approval of board (subjected to out of blackout period)
4) cash is now their strategic resource (I quote from the IR). I agree, because this is probably the only catalyst this company has in the short term apart from possible secondary listing.
The fall in share price from 40+ cents is not without reasons, the plunge in Thai border biz, the implementation of GST are the main reasons. Some of these problems are one off, some are here to stay. You need to develop your own financial model to determine the fair value of this company. I did, and so I bought in at certain price.
I will only react if, as per Tony Bro suspect (and become reality) more stores kena tax recall or if Thai king die again. If not whatever happened had been priced in, this is my personal opinion.
Stocks fluctuate from time to time and deviate from fundamentals in short term, if you do enough work and value the company based solely on facts and figures, you probably will have more correct picks then misfortune.
Vested.....
tonylim70 ( Date: 09-Apr-2018 21:58) Posted:
|
https://www.investingnote.com/posts/427348?goto=comment-427348651792
You can go to the above to know more details.
This counter share price has been dropping ever since 40+ cents. Whenever it drops to new low, there are ppl who say can buy already.
Dropped to 35 cents, ppl say new low, can buy
Dropped to 32 cents, ppl say new low can buy
Dropped to 30 cents, ppl say new low can buy
Dropped to 28 cents, dropped to 25 cents, dropped to 23 cents etc...
The selling is relentless and non-stop ever since 1 mth ago. I also wonder why. Think has to do with the tax case.
1) Yes, fundamentally this stock is good. But it changes eversince the annoucement last November when Malaysia tax authority chase them for $40million ringgit tax for one branch/shop. Imagine tax authority wins the case, there are 30+ branches/shops that maybe targetted plus if Najib wins the election, full force to recover tax !
Next, recently there is no share buyback even though the share price has been battered to 5 years new low of 20 cents and they have huge cash pile. Why??
Is it becos they area conserving the cash becos they going to lose the tax court case and have to pay $$$ to the tax authority??
2) At the moment buyers are buying based on technical reason and are hoping for a rebound. So last week when it reached 20 cents multiyear low and hits 23 cents a few days later, profit taking started to seep in and today closed at 21 cents. The 23 cents has become recent high already just like 35 cents, 32 cents, 30 cents, 28 cents and 25 cents was recent high. Basically is a falling knife. Most likely the reason is becos of the tax case.
U may buy at 20 cents and u may think is cheap but when it falls below 20 cents, then 20 cents will become recent high. Basically the uncertainties is killing the share price. End of April when FY results is annouced, look out for the following:
a) Is there any dividend? b) Is there any clarification to the tax case? c) Is there any share buyback ? d) Any acquisition annouced?
If a) + b) + c) are negative, then something not right already. Because they going to lose the tax case and is conserving the cash to pay the tax authority. And they may also fear that the tax authority may go after their other branches/shops, then the share price will dropped below 20 cents and remain below 20 cents for a long long time if they lose the tax court case.
Just my own opinion. Ignore this posting if u think i talking nonsense
BUT if they say they win the court case then share price will shoot back to 28 cents at least.
So u want to take a bet that they win the tax case?
You can go to the above to know more details.
This counter share price has been dropping ever since 40+ cents. Whenever it drops to new low, there are ppl who say can buy already.
Dropped to 35 cents, ppl say new low, can buy
Dropped to 32 cents, ppl say new low can buy
Dropped to 30 cents, ppl say new low can buy
Dropped to 28 cents, dropped to 25 cents, dropped to 23 cents etc...
The selling is relentless and non-stop ever since 1 mth ago. I also wonder why. Think has to do with the tax case.
1) Yes, fundamentally this stock is good. But it changes eversince the annoucement last November when Malaysia tax authority chase them for $40million ringgit tax for one branch/shop. Imagine tax authority wins the case, there are 30+ branches/shops that maybe targetted plus if Najib wins the election, full force to recover tax !
Next, recently there is no share buyback even though the share price has been battered to 5 years new low of 20 cents and they have huge cash pile. Why??
Is it becos they area conserving the cash becos they going to lose the tax court case and have to pay $$$ to the tax authority??
2) At the moment buyers are buying based on technical reason and are hoping for a rebound. So last week when it reached 20 cents multiyear low and hits 23 cents a few days later, profit taking started to seep in and today closed at 21 cents. The 23 cents has become recent high already just like 35 cents, 32 cents, 30 cents, 28 cents and 25 cents was recent high. Basically is a falling knife. Most likely the reason is becos of the tax case.
U may buy at 20 cents and u may think is cheap but when it falls below 20 cents, then 20 cents will become recent high. Basically the uncertainties is killing the share price. End of April when FY results is annouced, look out for the following:
a) Is there any dividend? b) Is there any clarification to the tax case? c) Is there any share buyback ? d) Any acquisition annouced?
If a) + b) + c) are negative, then something not right already. Because they going to lose the tax case and is conserving the cash to pay the tax authority. And they may also fear that the tax authority may go after their other branches/shops, then the share price will dropped below 20 cents and remain below 20 cents for a long long time if they lose the tax court case.
Just my own opinion. Ignore this posting if u think i talking nonsense
BUT if they say they win the court case then share price will shoot back to 28 cents at least.
So u want to take a bet that they win the tax case?
fusioncat ( Date: 09-Apr-2018 21:34) Posted:
|
Dear all,
Seek your views.
04-Apr: Sold to buyer (buyer limit entry) 1615,600 , Brought from Seller 387,700
05-Apr: Sold to buyer 258,100, Brought from Seller 889,100
09-Apr: Sold to buyer 513,500, Bought from seller 283,700
I observed that when there are more BOUGHT from seller, the price will go up. (buyer use market order and seller use limit entry to sell)
Also, for every seller, there must be a buyer, vice versa, so could there be two possibilites?
1) there are still people willing to buy at low price (confidence in this share fundamental)
2) These buyers are insiders trying to accumulate it a a lower price? but are they not making a loss too if price keep going down?
Seek your views.
04-Apr: Sold to buyer (buyer limit entry) 1615,600 , Brought from Seller 387,700
05-Apr: Sold to buyer 258,100, Brought from Seller 889,100
09-Apr: Sold to buyer 513,500, Bought from seller 283,700
I observed that when there are more BOUGHT from seller, the price will go up. (buyer use market order and seller use limit entry to sell)
Also, for every seller, there must be a buyer, vice versa, so could there be two possibilites?
1) there are still people willing to buy at low price (confidence in this share fundamental)
2) These buyers are insiders trying to accumulate it a a lower price? but are they not making a loss too if price keep going down?
Like that I confirm sian max... Continue email the IR F**k him jialat jialat.
tonylim70 ( Date: 06-Apr-2018 21:29) Posted:
|
ok.. 3 weeks financial annoucement later we all will know. If they dun say they going list in HK and they also never execute share buyback from now till then and they never give dividend ==> They are " scared" to use their cash which means they fear they may have to pay the tax ==> Red flag liao
:) Cheers
:) Cheers
kelvintan84 ( Date: 06-Apr-2018 21:24) Posted:
|
Buy back somemore cannot list hk liao la... Haha.. So close to 75% liao...
tonylim70 ( Date: 06-Apr-2018 19:07) Posted:
|
Ya, strange that when share price bashed to 20 cents, they still reluctant to tap on budget to carry out share buyback.. Think they are conserving the cash lo.. Maybe dun place too much hope on dividend liao.. This stupid tax case has sabotaged MANY duty free shareholders including me. Without this tax thingy, the share price could have easily touched 30 cents... Bo bian has to let go of duty free due to this tax thingy, dun want to take risk.
Yes.. hk listing is perhaps the best hope for this April annoucement.
Yes.. hk listing is perhaps the best hope for this April annoucement.
kelvintan84 ( Date: 06-Apr-2018 18:51) Posted:
|
They completed their sharebuy back program in 2017. 2018 budget haven' t tap yet...
Dual listing in HK needs 25% of shares in the public... (that' s why they failed to do so in 2015) The controlling company holdings only recently fell to 74.3% after share placement... so this one higher chance...
Dual listing in HK needs 25% of shares in the public... (that' s why they failed to do so in 2015) The controlling company holdings only recently fell to 74.3% after share placement... so this one higher chance...
tonylim70 ( Date: 06-Apr-2018 18:44) Posted:
|
Good points, but err.. i think they dun dare to touch the cash now cos just in case they need to pay hefty fine to the tax authority. U notice nowadays they never do any share buyback even when their share price is been bashed until no eyes to see?? they conserving the cash just in case they need to pay up.. what do u think?
HK dual listing i think is a possibility rather than a probability.
HK dual listing i think is a possibility rather than a probability.
kelvintan84 ( Date: 06-Apr-2018 18:42) Posted:
|
hmm.... i think no dividend (they give somemore exceed 10% liao) and sure no clarification of tax case... cos Malaysia govt fighting among themselves... the court also no time for DFI, only got time ban opposition party...
I actually hope there' s something on 1)dual listing in HK 2)utilisation of cash pile
I actually hope there' s something on 1)dual listing in HK 2)utilisation of cash pile
tonylim70 ( Date: 06-Apr-2018 18:39) Posted:
|