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This debt so cheap - these investors bo chup
ThaiBev raises THB38,000 mil from debentures that were almost three times oversubscribed
Thai Beverage (ThaiBev) has successfully raised THB38,000 million ($1.51 billion) from issuing Thai Baht debentures that have been close to three times over subscribed.
The debentures, which are a long-term debt instrument, comprise an initial principal of THB 28,000 million and a greenshoe option of THB10,000 million. They have been assigned an AA(tha) rating by Fitch Ratings, which is considered investment grade.
The sum was raised through a private placement to institutional investors and high net-worth investors.
The debentures were issued in three tranches &mdash three-year maturing 2028 THB11,000 million zero coupon 1.72% p.a. five-year THB24,000 million with a fixed coupon rate of 1.90% p.a. 10-year maturing 2035 THB3,000 million with a fixed coupon rate of 2.37% p.a. and a call option exercisable after the fifth year.
Collectively, the debentures have a weighted average tenor of 4.82 years and a weighted average coupon rate of 1.89% p.a.
The proceeds will be used to repay existing debts including exercising the call options on two outstanding debentures in September 2025.
Personally I think there are more negative news on the Thai macro economy front to come. They have so many problems.
Not saying that at some point the share price will not be above current levels, but what near term positive catalysts are there for the company which means I should buy now rather than wait given there are negative country catalysts?
with more investors losing patience...
is this the time to buy?
buy on fear, sell on rumor
Decide to cut loss. Lost $3.1k after dividend.
Going to relocate fund to US market. Chances to gain back the loss is higher ..
Gave up on this.. most stocks run up so much yet this is stagnant. Talk about beer ipo few times, most recent last year end till now no Sound no Picture. Really lousy and now i have doubt on the management credibility. Putting my holdings in deep freezer.
Aug 14 (Reuters) - Thai Beverage (ThaiBev) TBEV.SI posted a 4% drop in its nine-month operating earnings on Thursday, weighed down by continued weakness in its spirits division, along with a dip in its non-alcoholic beverages and food segments.
The spirits business' earnings, which accounted for nearly half of the total during the reporting period, saw a 5.4% drop, while non-alcoholic beverages EBITDA fell 6.3%, both affected by increased brand investment and marketing expenses.
The Singapore-listed company has been struggling to increase profits amid weak consumer spending, rising costs and occasional dips in its top-performing segments in the post-pandemic years.
While challenging market conditions in Vietnam weighed on the sales revenue of ThaiBev's beer division, a decrease in key raw material costs and an improvement in production efficiency lifted the division's EBITDA by 4%.
The Bangkok-based firm's nine-month sales revenue remained steady at 258.62 billion baht ($7.98 billion), supported by stable spirits division revenue, while the food division's sales declined by 1.4% due to reduced consumer spending and demand.
The absence of one-off contributions, including title sales and licensing income, which boosted the previous year's results, further weighed on the group's nine-month earnings.
ThaiBev, which brews the popular Chang beer, reported EBITDA of 45.03 billion baht for the nine months ending June 30, down from 46.88 billion baht the previous year.
($1 = 32.3300 baht)
Thai Beverage 9-month Ebitda falls 4% to 45 billion baht
Sales revenue for the nine months ended Jun 30 is 258.6 billion baht, down 0.4%
[SINGAPORE] Thai Beverage (ThaiBev) : Y92 +1.06% posted a 4 per cent drop in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) to 45 billion baht (S$1.8 billion) for the nine months ended Jun 30, from 46.9 billion baht in the same period in the previous year.
The reported figures for the nine months ended Jun 30, 2024, have been adjusted to account for the consolidation of Fraser and Neave (F& N) following its share swap with ThaiBev in September 2024, said the company in a business update on Thursday (Aug 14).
Before the adjustment, ThaiBev&rsquo s Ebitda for the first nine months ended Jun 30, 2024, was 38.6 billion baht.
Sales revenue for the nine months ended Jun 30 this year came in at 258.6 billion baht, down 0.4 per cent from 259.8 billion baht in the corresponding period last year.
Ebitda for its spirit business fell to 22.2 billion baht. The drop was attributed to an increase in marketing for brand investment and support for new product launches. Nevertheless, sales revenue for the period remained stable at 92.8 billion baht, compared to the prior year.
Ebitda for its beer segment increased 4 per cent from a year ago to 12.6 billion baht, due to a decrease in raw material cost and more efficient production.
Nevertheless, the beer segment recorded a sales revenue of 96.5 billion baht, a slight decline of 0.3 per cent from the previous year. The decline was primarily due to the challenging market conditions in Vietnam, said the company.
Ebitda for its non-alcoholic beverage segment declined by 6.3 per cent to 8.7 billion baht, primarily due to increased brand investment and marketing activities aimed at engaging consumers across all channels, as well as a lower share of profit from associates.
The food segment posted a lower Ebitda of 1.6 billion baht, down 19.5 per cent from a year earlier, due to higher raw material and labour costs.
The group&rsquo s &ldquo others&rdquo business segment, comprising publishing and printing, reported a 5.9 per cent decline in sales revenue to 3.6 billion baht, primarily due to the absence of one-off contributions, including title sales and licensing income, which had boosted the previous year&rsquo s results. This, along with higher printing costs, resulted in a negative Ebitda four million baht.
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/results/thaibevs-sales-revenue-down-04-y-o-y-thb2586-bil-9mfy2025
ThaiBev?s sales revenue down 0.4% y-o-y to THB258.6 bil for 9MFY2025
The macro externalities are presenting a lot of headwinds for the economy as a whole, notwithstanding the industry competition which makes it even more challenging. Would be keen to see their guidance at next set of earnings.
Alignment ( Date: 02-Aug-2025 14:05) Posted:
| Tourist kidnappings, army political issues, tariffs and now wars. Thai economy going to crater. |
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Stay too long at 40 cents liao will it go down to 30 cents
Tourist kidnappings, army political issues, tariffs and now wars. Thai economy going to crater.
Same here scooped in some today too.
kt3152 ( Date: 22-Jul-2025 11:13) Posted:
| Collect some 47.5 to hold. Still consolidating.... |
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Collect some 47.5 to hold. Still consolidating....
The managment has been singing these points for years and years.
vicloo ( Date: 21-Jul-2025 21:50) Posted:
Hope so
n3wbie ( Date: 23-Jun-2025 21:42) Posted:
Update note from DBS -
ThaiBev - Key takeaways from Annual Information Meeting (Maintain BUY, TP: SGD0.63)
- ThaiBev management driving strategic priorities, operational efficiency and margin improvement in 2H to offset mixed near term operational trends amid uncertain economic backdrop
- Thailand Beer positive momentum ongoing with management indicating gains in market share and high brand equity awareness for Chang Beer
- Spirits and Beer could see better gross margins in 2H25 on more conducive raw material price (molasses, malt, glass, etc)
- While catalyst from BeerCo IPO not imminent, recent share price weakness have factored in outlook and political uncertainty. Maintain BUY, TP SGD0.63 as valuation at ~11x FY25F PE attractive (near -2SD historical average) with ~5% yield support
What&rsquo s new
We attended ThaiBev Annual Information Meeting for shareholders and analysts&rsquo on 20 June. Interest and questions to ThaiBev management focused on both near-term and longer-term consumption trends for spirits and beer in Thailand and Vietnam, amid prevailing macroeconomic softness and geopolitical uncertainties. The margins backdrop and outlook arising from raw materials movement for its Spirits and Beer segments were also raised. In addition, focus was also BeerCo IPO updates and timeline. Other areas of discussions centered around management strategy and actions in relation to regulatory changes such as the Alcohol Control Act in Thailand and special sales tax (SST) in Vietnam, and the group&rsquo s capital structure. We summarise the key topics and points below.
Our views
Share price near -2SD of 10-year historical average, already priced in weak outlook. Management tone and message seems to point to a margin improvement in the second half of the year, underpinned by easing raw material costs&mdash including molasses for spirits, and malt, glass, and aluminium for beer. While the share price has declined by approximately 14% since the 1H25 results announcement and is down about 5% in the past week&mdash likely due to renewed concerns over Thailand&rsquo s political climate&mdash historical patterns suggest that such political noise has had limited correlation with the stock&rsquo s performance. Instead, margins and consumer demand tend to be the key price drivers. At c.11x FY25F PE, the stock now trades close to -2 standard deviations below its 10-year average, reflecting weak sentiment that may already be priced in. Based on our view, investors are awaiting potential re-rating catalysts, particularly clarity on the timing of the BeerCo IPO, value-unlocking moves, or the entry of a strategic investor&mdash elements which remain uncertain at this juncture given the current macro and geopolitical environment. Nonetheless, valuation for the counter appears undemanding, with downside risk likely cushioned by an estimated ~5% dividend yield. We maintain our BUY with TP at SGD0.63, based on 16x
Grouped summary of topics raised and discussed
Spirits &ndash Thailand
White‑ spirit volumes remain under pressure as rural incomes lag, but brown spirits continue to anchor profitability thanks to stronger brand loyalty and pricing power. Management indicated that a 10‑ 15 % decline in molasses costs should begin to lift margins by 4Q25, although management flagged a lag from weighted‑ average costing. Premium extensions for Thailand first premium single malt whisky and new RTDs ( Zato) are being rolled out to widen the profit pool and capture younger consumers.
Beer &ndash Thailand
Beer was the stand‑ out performer. Chang Classic has consolidated leadership in the mainstream segment, while Chang Cold Brew builds lifestyle equity in 30 key provinces which contributes 80% of the market. Management highlighted a drop in malt, glass and energy costs, translating to margin expansion. The near‑ term goal is to cross the symbolic 45% market‑ share threshold, ultimately aiming for a majority share. Management indicated that Chang brand had achieved 50% brand equity index.
Beer &ndash Vietnam (Sabeco)
Despite tighter drink‑ driving enforcement, future excise hikes and weak macro environment, management remains bullish on Vietnam&rsquo s mid to long term beer trajectory given favourable demographics and a 95 % beer share of total alcohol consumption. Crucially, the 2027 special‑ sales‑ tax (SST) shift will retain a value‑ based formula, vis-à -vis volume-based which was said to be favoured by other competitor. While the SST rate will increase from 65% to 70%, the net implied increase on selling prices is estimated to be about 2%. Price increase from SST will be fully passed on. On the back of expected price increase from SST and weaker consumer purchasing power arising from macro economic uncertainties, the value segment is expected to benefit due to downtrading. Sabeco will reinforce its lower‑ price portfolio and deepen rural distribution to defend its number‑ one position.
Regulatory Backdrop
In Thailand, a revised Excise Act (passed) and an amended Alcohol Beverage Control Act (in Senate review) will relax entry barriers and some sales restrictions, potentially intensifying competition. Management argues ThaiBev&rsquo s scale, route‑ to‑ market infrastructure and digital reach will remain decisive moats. In Vietnam, industry coordination should ensure tax increases are fully passed through with limited elasticity impact.
Capital Allocation & Financials
ThaiBev reiterated its Ba3 (stable) credit rating and manageable leverage. No large M& A is contemplated. The ~20% Vinamilk stake is viewed as a strategic, yield‑ accretive asset the F& N Singapore listing is retained for future restructuring flexibility. The BeerCo IPO remains on the card but timing is uncertain given current market conditions, reflecting a stance of &ldquo strategic patience.&rdquo
Outlook
Management tone suggest for a margin uplift in spirits from 4Q25 and sustained profit growth in beer through cost tailwinds and market‑ share gains. Regulatory changes remain the key watch‑ point, but management believes proactive engagement and brand strength provide sufficient defences. ASEAN&rsquo s beer landscape, centred on Vietnam and Thailand, remains ThaiBev&rsquo s primary growth engine.
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Hope so
n3wbie ( Date: 23-Jun-2025 21:42) Posted:
Update note from DBS -
ThaiBev - Key takeaways from Annual Information Meeting (Maintain BUY, TP: SGD0.63)
- ThaiBev management driving strategic priorities, operational efficiency and margin improvement in 2H to offset mixed near term operational trends amid uncertain economic backdrop
- Thailand Beer positive momentum ongoing with management indicating gains in market share and high brand equity awareness for Chang Beer
- Spirits and Beer could see better gross margins in 2H25 on more conducive raw material price (molasses, malt, glass, etc)
- While catalyst from BeerCo IPO not imminent, recent share price weakness have factored in outlook and political uncertainty. Maintain BUY, TP SGD0.63 as valuation at ~11x FY25F PE attractive (near -2SD historical average) with ~5% yield support
What&rsquo s new
We attended ThaiBev Annual Information Meeting for shareholders and analysts&rsquo on 20 June. Interest and questions to ThaiBev management focused on both near-term and longer-term consumption trends for spirits and beer in Thailand and Vietnam, amid prevailing macroeconomic softness and geopolitical uncertainties. The margins backdrop and outlook arising from raw materials movement for its Spirits and Beer segments were also raised. In addition, focus was also BeerCo IPO updates and timeline. Other areas of discussions centered around management strategy and actions in relation to regulatory changes such as the Alcohol Control Act in Thailand and special sales tax (SST) in Vietnam, and the group&rsquo s capital structure. We summarise the key topics and points below.
Our views
Share price near -2SD of 10-year historical average, already priced in weak outlook. Management tone and message seems to point to a margin improvement in the second half of the year, underpinned by easing raw material costs&mdash including molasses for spirits, and malt, glass, and aluminium for beer. While the share price has declined by approximately 14% since the 1H25 results announcement and is down about 5% in the past week&mdash likely due to renewed concerns over Thailand&rsquo s political climate&mdash historical patterns suggest that such political noise has had limited correlation with the stock&rsquo s performance. Instead, margins and consumer demand tend to be the key price drivers. At c.11x FY25F PE, the stock now trades close to -2 standard deviations below its 10-year average, reflecting weak sentiment that may already be priced in. Based on our view, investors are awaiting potential re-rating catalysts, particularly clarity on the timing of the BeerCo IPO, value-unlocking moves, or the entry of a strategic investor&mdash elements which remain uncertain at this juncture given the current macro and geopolitical environment. Nonetheless, valuation for the counter appears undemanding, with downside risk likely cushioned by an estimated ~5% dividend yield. We maintain our BUY with TP at SGD0.63, based on 16x
Grouped summary of topics raised and discussed
Spirits &ndash Thailand
White‑ spirit volumes remain under pressure as rural incomes lag, but brown spirits continue to anchor profitability thanks to stronger brand loyalty and pricing power. Management indicated that a 10‑ 15 % decline in molasses costs should begin to lift margins by 4Q25, although management flagged a lag from weighted‑ average costing. Premium extensions for Thailand first premium single malt whisky and new RTDs ( Zato) are being rolled out to widen the profit pool and capture younger consumers.
Beer &ndash Thailand
Beer was the stand‑ out performer. Chang Classic has consolidated leadership in the mainstream segment, while Chang Cold Brew builds lifestyle equity in 30 key provinces which contributes 80% of the market. Management highlighted a drop in malt, glass and energy costs, translating to margin expansion. The near‑ term goal is to cross the symbolic 45% market‑ share threshold, ultimately aiming for a majority share. Management indicated that Chang brand had achieved 50% brand equity index.
Beer &ndash Vietnam (Sabeco)
Despite tighter drink‑ driving enforcement, future excise hikes and weak macro environment, management remains bullish on Vietnam&rsquo s mid to long term beer trajectory given favourable demographics and a 95 % beer share of total alcohol consumption. Crucially, the 2027 special‑ sales‑ tax (SST) shift will retain a value‑ based formula, vis-à -vis volume-based which was said to be favoured by other competitor. While the SST rate will increase from 65% to 70%, the net implied increase on selling prices is estimated to be about 2%. Price increase from SST will be fully passed on. On the back of expected price increase from SST and weaker consumer purchasing power arising from macro economic uncertainties, the value segment is expected to benefit due to downtrading. Sabeco will reinforce its lower‑ price portfolio and deepen rural distribution to defend its number‑ one position.
Regulatory Backdrop
In Thailand, a revised Excise Act (passed) and an amended Alcohol Beverage Control Act (in Senate review) will relax entry barriers and some sales restrictions, potentially intensifying competition. Management argues ThaiBev&rsquo s scale, route‑ to‑ market infrastructure and digital reach will remain decisive moats. In Vietnam, industry coordination should ensure tax increases are fully passed through with limited elasticity impact.
Capital Allocation & Financials
ThaiBev reiterated its Ba3 (stable) credit rating and manageable leverage. No large M& A is contemplated. The ~20% Vinamilk stake is viewed as a strategic, yield‑ accretive asset the F& N Singapore listing is retained for future restructuring flexibility. The BeerCo IPO remains on the card but timing is uncertain given current market conditions, reflecting a stance of &ldquo strategic patience.&rdquo
Outlook
Management tone suggest for a margin uplift in spirits from 4Q25 and sustained profit growth in beer through cost tailwinds and market‑ share gains. Regulatory changes remain the key watch‑ point, but management believes proactive engagement and brand strength provide sufficient defences. ASEAN&rsquo s beer landscape, centred on Vietnam and Thailand, remains ThaiBev&rsquo s primary growth engine.
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Just hold on to this gem lah
Joelton ( Date: 26-Jun-2025 08:46) Posted:
ThaiBev' s beer spin-off IPO not imminent, but Myanmar leads fizzier times
Thai Beverage is a counter that enjoys overwhelmingly positive coverage from analysts, even as its share price hardly moved in the past year, with its earnings weighed by higher marketing costs, raw materials, or general uncertainty in its key markets. On the other hand, investors have been awaiting the spin-off listing of its massive beer business, which has been talked about for years, as a way for value to be unlocked.
Following the company&rsquo s annual information meeting on June 20, which was open to shareholders and analysts, the company continued to receive some positive views, even though it made it clear that the beer business&rsquo s initial public offering (IPO) is not imminent.
&ldquo Thai Beverage reaffirmed interest from strategic investors in the proposed BeerCo IPO but said it will wait for favourable market conditions to unlock value. In the meantime, Thai Beverageis focused on strengthening its market position and distribution network and preserving margins,&rdquo CGS International analysts Meghana Kande and Lim Siew Khee said in their June 23 note.
" In our view, given the ongoing global market uncertainty, we opine that any near-term potential IPO would not result in favourable valuations," state UOB Kay Hian' s Llelleythan Tan and Heidi Mo in their June 25 note, where they kept their " hold" call and 45 cents target price.
Year to date, Thai Beverage&rsquo s share price has dropped by nearly 18% as of June 24. In contrast, the Straits Times Index, of which Thai Bev is one of the 30 component stocks, has held steady in the same period. From the perspective of Chee Zheng Feng of DBS Group Research, the recent weakness of this counter is due to political uncertainty and the general outlook. Recently, Thailand&rsquo s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra found herself in a political crisis after a phone call with Cambodia&rsquo s Hun Sen was leaked.
However, Chee is not about to lend too much weight to the political drama. &ldquo Historical patterns suggest that such political noise has had limited correlation with the stock&rsquo s performance. Instead, margins and consumer demand tend to be the key price drivers.&rdquo
&ldquo Investors are awaiting potential re-rating catalysts, particularly clarity on the timing of the BeerCo IPO, value-unlocking moves, or the entry of a strategic investor &mdash elements which remain uncertain at this juncture given the current macro and geopolitical environment,&rdquo says Chee.
At just 11 times FY2025 earnings, the stock trades at close to &ndash 2 standard deviations below its 10-year average, reflecting weak sentiment already priced in. Downside risk is also cushioned by an estimated yield of around 5%, says Chee, who has kept his &ldquo buy&rdquo call with a target price of 63 cents, which is based on 16 times earnings.
With the IPO not an immediate priority, Thai Beverage is focused on improving operational efficiencies and margins. According to Chee, the company looks forward to better margins in the second half of the year, with raw material costs ranging from molasses for spirits and malt to glass and aluminium for beer cans, easing.
For Chee, Thai Beverage&rsquo s beer business in its home market, Thailand, is the &ldquo stand-out&rdquo performer. Chang Classic, a key label, has consolidated leadership in the mainstream segment, while another label, Chang Cold Brew, is gaining traction too. The near-term goal is to cross the symbolic 45% market-share threshold, aiming for a majority share.
On the other hand, the beer business in Vietnam, another key market, is seeing pressure from tighter drink-driving enforcement, future excise hikes and weak macro environment. Even so, Thai Bev remains bullish on Vietnam&rsquo s mid to long-term beer trajectory given favourable demographics and a 95% beer share of total alcohol consumption.
Vietnam is poised to hike a so-called special sales tax in 2027 from 65% to 70%, which will compel the company to raise selling prices by around 2%, estimates Chee. As the tax affects other alcohol companies too, whose competing products are priced at around 20% higher, Chee believes that Sabeco, as the Vietnam unit is called, will benefit from consumers downtrading.
Kande and Lim of CGS International are observing another bright spot: Myanmar. Via its subsidiary F& N, Thai Beverage has re-entered Myanmar since 2019. It has become a key growth market with beer sales doubling over the preceding year, which has helped offset lower contribution from Vietnam in the 1HFY2025 ended March.
Euromonitor, a market data firm, estimates that Thai Beverage&rsquo s market share in Myanmar has increased from just 1% in 2020 to 16% in 2024, led by the brands Chang and Tapper. They point out that Thai Beverage&rsquo s revenue in Myanmar increased by 98% y-o-y in 1HFY2025, a pick-up from 46% y-o-y in FY2024.
In contrast, Myanmar Brewery, the unlisted incumbent, has started losing market share since 2021, worsened in 2022 by the exit of Japan&rsquo s Kirin, a joint venture partner, amid consumers&rsquo mass boycott. Following the completion of Kirin&rsquo s sale of its stake in early 2023, the sole owner of Myanmar Brewery is Myanma Economic Holdings, a military-owned conglomerate.
Kande and Lim have maintained their &ldquo add&rdquo call and 56 cents target price, backed by their forecast of 8% core earnings growth over FY2025 to FY2027, plus a dividend of 5.7%, which beats 4% given by the peers.
Re-rating catalysts include stronger margins from tighter cost controls, volume uplift from downtrading in Vietnam. In contrast, downside risks include prolonged macroeconomic weakness impacting sales volumes and lower margins from higher costs.
===
Nera Telecommunications secures contract renewal worth $30 mil
Nera Telecommunications has secured a renewal of a frame contract with a leading service provider in Southeast Asia, worth $30 million.
The group will implement a comprehensive smart services training programme and deploy trained personnel across more than one hundred sites. This initiative aims to empower enterprises in rural communities to harness innovative and competitive digital commerce opportunities to accelerate economic growth.
The group will also manage services components spanning 60 months, such as the day-to-day operations, management, and maintenance of the deployed infrastructure, along with continuous support and network performance monitoring to ensure compliance with the customer&rsquo s Service Level Agreements (SLAs).
Nera Telecommunications says that this contract is expected to contribute positively to its performance for the current financial year.
|
|
ThaiBev' s beer spin-off IPO not imminent, but Myanmar leads fizzier times
Thai Beverage is a counter that enjoys overwhelmingly positive coverage from analysts, even as its share price hardly moved in the past year, with its earnings weighed by higher marketing costs, raw materials, or general uncertainty in its key markets. On the other hand, investors have been awaiting the spin-off listing of its massive beer business, which has been talked about for years, as a way for value to be unlocked.
Following the company&rsquo s annual information meeting on June 20, which was open to shareholders and analysts, the company continued to receive some positive views, even though it made it clear that the beer business&rsquo s initial public offering (IPO) is not imminent.
&ldquo Thai Beverage reaffirmed interest from strategic investors in the proposed BeerCo IPO but said it will wait for favourable market conditions to unlock value. In the meantime, Thai Beverageis focused on strengthening its market position and distribution network and preserving margins,&rdquo CGS International analysts Meghana Kande and Lim Siew Khee said in their June 23 note.
" In our view, given the ongoing global market uncertainty, we opine that any near-term potential IPO would not result in favourable valuations," state UOB Kay Hian' s Llelleythan Tan and Heidi Mo in their June 25 note, where they kept their " hold" call and 45 cents target price.
Year to date, Thai Beverage&rsquo s share price has dropped by nearly 18% as of June 24. In contrast, the Straits Times Index, of which Thai Bev is one of the 30 component stocks, has held steady in the same period. From the perspective of Chee Zheng Feng of DBS Group Research, the recent weakness of this counter is due to political uncertainty and the general outlook. Recently, Thailand&rsquo s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra found herself in a political crisis after a phone call with Cambodia&rsquo s Hun Sen was leaked.
However, Chee is not about to lend too much weight to the political drama. &ldquo Historical patterns suggest that such political noise has had limited correlation with the stock&rsquo s performance. Instead, margins and consumer demand tend to be the key price drivers.&rdquo
&ldquo Investors are awaiting potential re-rating catalysts, particularly clarity on the timing of the BeerCo IPO, value-unlocking moves, or the entry of a strategic investor &mdash elements which remain uncertain at this juncture given the current macro and geopolitical environment,&rdquo says Chee.
At just 11 times FY2025 earnings, the stock trades at close to &ndash 2 standard deviations below its 10-year average, reflecting weak sentiment already priced in. Downside risk is also cushioned by an estimated yield of around 5%, says Chee, who has kept his &ldquo buy&rdquo call with a target price of 63 cents, which is based on 16 times earnings.
With the IPO not an immediate priority, Thai Beverage is focused on improving operational efficiencies and margins. According to Chee, the company looks forward to better margins in the second half of the year, with raw material costs ranging from molasses for spirits and malt to glass and aluminium for beer cans, easing.
For Chee, Thai Beverage&rsquo s beer business in its home market, Thailand, is the &ldquo stand-out&rdquo performer. Chang Classic, a key label, has consolidated leadership in the mainstream segment, while another label, Chang Cold Brew, is gaining traction too. The near-term goal is to cross the symbolic 45% market-share threshold, aiming for a majority share.
On the other hand, the beer business in Vietnam, another key market, is seeing pressure from tighter drink-driving enforcement, future excise hikes and weak macro environment. Even so, Thai Bev remains bullish on Vietnam&rsquo s mid to long-term beer trajectory given favourable demographics and a 95% beer share of total alcohol consumption.
Vietnam is poised to hike a so-called special sales tax in 2027 from 65% to 70%, which will compel the company to raise selling prices by around 2%, estimates Chee. As the tax affects other alcohol companies too, whose competing products are priced at around 20% higher, Chee believes that Sabeco, as the Vietnam unit is called, will benefit from consumers downtrading.
Kande and Lim of CGS International are observing another bright spot: Myanmar. Via its subsidiary F& N, Thai Beverage has re-entered Myanmar since 2019. It has become a key growth market with beer sales doubling over the preceding year, which has helped offset lower contribution from Vietnam in the 1HFY2025 ended March.
Euromonitor, a market data firm, estimates that Thai Beverage&rsquo s market share in Myanmar has increased from just 1% in 2020 to 16% in 2024, led by the brands Chang and Tapper. They point out that Thai Beverage&rsquo s revenue in Myanmar increased by 98% y-o-y in 1HFY2025, a pick-up from 46% y-o-y in FY2024.
In contrast, Myanmar Brewery, the unlisted incumbent, has started losing market share since 2021, worsened in 2022 by the exit of Japan&rsquo s Kirin, a joint venture partner, amid consumers&rsquo mass boycott. Following the completion of Kirin&rsquo s sale of its stake in early 2023, the sole owner of Myanmar Brewery is Myanma Economic Holdings, a military-owned conglomerate.
Kande and Lim have maintained their &ldquo add&rdquo call and 56 cents target price, backed by their forecast of 8% core earnings growth over FY2025 to FY2027, plus a dividend of 5.7%, which beats 4% given by the peers.
Re-rating catalysts include stronger margins from tighter cost controls, volume uplift from downtrading in Vietnam. In contrast, downside risks include prolonged macroeconomic weakness impacting sales volumes and lower margins from higher costs.
===
Nera Telecommunications secures contract renewal worth $30 mil
Nera Telecommunications has secured a renewal of a frame contract with a leading service provider in Southeast Asia, worth $30 million.
The group will implement a comprehensive smart services training programme and deploy trained personnel across more than one hundred sites. This initiative aims to empower enterprises in rural communities to harness innovative and competitive digital commerce opportunities to accelerate economic growth.
The group will also manage services components spanning 60 months, such as the day-to-day operations, management, and maintenance of the deployed infrastructure, along with continuous support and network performance monitoring to ensure compliance with the customer&rsquo s Service Level Agreements (SLAs).
Nera Telecommunications says that this contract is expected to contribute positively to its performance for the current financial year.
