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Black Gold Industry Discussion

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tccroy
    25-May-2026 15:02  
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-24/indonesia-eyes-commodity-export-policy-detail-rollout-in-coming-weeks

Will announce by this week.
 
 
ETHunter
    25-May-2026 13:13  
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Just checked and most Indonesian counters are up today.
Golden Eagle (Geo subsidiary) up 6.2% now.
Pick durians and waiting for mgtm update announcements.
Dyodd
 
 
 
thinkpad
    25-May-2026 12:53  
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👍 👍 👍

ETHunter      ( Date: 25-May-2026 12:34) Posted:


Indonesia Danantara export regime (PP No. 21/2026) transitions the coal sector into a transparent, digital auditing framework. While the initial market reaction triggered an indiscriminate sell-off, the finalized mechanics present a compelling, structurally protected bull case for Geo Energy.

Insulated Infrastructure Value
The catalyst for Geo' s transformation is the 92km MBJ hauling road and jetty corridor (90% complete, launching June/July 2026). Valued at US$1.5 billion by third parties, this land-based infrastructure generates domestic tariff revenues entirely safe from export or foreign currency regulations.

The Bilateral Track 
The government explicitly exempts strategic international agreements from the 12-month state-bank FX lock-up. 
Geo Energy can legally engineer its US$50M to $100M Trafigura coking coal deal under this clause, slashing mandatory onshore retention to a minor 30% for just 3 months.

USD Liquidity Protection
The regulation caps mandatory Rupiah conversion at 50%. Geo retains the absolute right to keep 50% of proceeds as onshore USD to seamlessly settle its international logistics units (TMP/BSM) and fund SGX dividend distributions.

GEO Competitive Advantage 
Danantara framework is accelerating a massive consolidation wave in the Indonesian coal fields. By raising the legal, administrative, and financial barrier to entry, the state is making it highly unviable to be a small, independent exporter.
As smaller miners experience severe cash-flow friction, Geo Energy stands ready to capture their logisitical business via the MBJ Infrastructure Corridor, while maintaining its own export fluidness through elite, institutional partnerships. 
The policy is fundamentally a tax on the weak, and a growth catalyst for the structurally insulated. GEO is one such entity. 

​ The market correction has created a stark valuation disconnect, with Geo physical infrastructure assets alone significantly exceeding its entire depressed market capitalization. 
Dyodd


 

 
ETHunter
    25-May-2026 12:34  
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Indonesia Danantara export regime (PP No. 21/2026) transitions the coal sector into a transparent, digital auditing framework. While the initial market reaction triggered an indiscriminate sell-off, the finalized mechanics present a compelling, structurally protected bull case for Geo Energy.

Insulated Infrastructure Value
The catalyst for Geo' s transformation is the 92km MBJ hauling road and jetty corridor (90% complete, launching June/July 2026). Valued at US$1.5 billion by third parties, this land-based infrastructure generates domestic tariff revenues entirely safe from export or foreign currency regulations.

The Bilateral Track 
The government explicitly exempts strategic international agreements from the 12-month state-bank FX lock-up. 
Geo Energy can legally engineer its US$50M to $100M Trafigura coking coal deal under this clause, slashing mandatory onshore retention to a minor 30% for just 3 months.

USD Liquidity Protection
The regulation caps mandatory Rupiah conversion at 50%. Geo retains the absolute right to keep 50% of proceeds as onshore USD to seamlessly settle its international logistics units (TMP/BSM) and fund SGX dividend distributions.

GEO Competitive Advantage 
Danantara framework is accelerating a massive consolidation wave in the Indonesian coal fields. By raising the legal, administrative, and financial barrier to entry, the state is making it highly unviable to be a small, independent exporter.
As smaller miners experience severe cash-flow friction, Geo Energy stands ready to capture their logisitical business via the MBJ Infrastructure Corridor, while maintaining its own export fluidness through elite, institutional partnerships. 
The policy is fundamentally a tax on the weak, and a growth catalyst for the structurally insulated. GEO is one such entity. 

​ The market correction has created a stark valuation disconnect, with Geo physical infrastructure assets alone significantly exceeding its entire depressed market capitalization. 
Dyodd

 
 
Newbie85
    25-May-2026 12:21  
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Morning trap people.

Newbie85      ( Date: 25-May-2026 08:37) Posted:

My guess is. Market won?t like this.

Newbie85      ( Date: 25-May-2026 08:24) Posted:

Luckily traded in and got out last Friday most.

Likely going down after no communication with the govt from the latest annoucement.

Draggy again.


 
 
JAMMIE
    25-May-2026 12:15  
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With the amount on analysts coverage this is receiving and the management commentrary , this can be very volatile in the coming days. They are trying to push this up to get retailers to buy into it before a sustained selling happens. The problem is that with the overhang created from the govt. announcement it will be difficult for retail investors to ascetain the price for geo right now. Yes, it might just zoom to 50c - 60c quickly, but it carries an equal risk to run down to under 40c very quickly too. Its better to wait on sidelines. 
 
 

 
ozone2002
    25-May-2026 11:11  
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Lim& Tan Brokerage report release could have spurred the price increase last Fri 

Lim & Tan Research
Idea  of  the  Day
Geo Energy&rsquo s  market cap stands at $890mln and currently trades at 10x  forward PE and 1.1x PB, with a dividend yield of 0.8%.  Consensus target  price stands at S$0.93, representing 86% upside from current share  price. Given the sharp decline in Geo Energy&rsquo s share price despite its stillstrong  fundamentals, we believe the stock is materially undervalued.
Geo continues to benefit from elevated coal prices, while the MBJ bridge  is expected to come online in 2H, which should further enhance logistics  efficiency and production economics. Notably, the benchmark valuation  for the MBJ infrastructure alone stands at approximately US$1.5bn,  which already exceeds Geo Energy&rsquo s current market capitalisation  and does not even account for the value of its coal mining assets. As  such, we believe the market is significantly undervaluing the Group&rsquo s  underlying assets and earnings potential, and we therefore  maintain a  BUY recommendation on Geo Energy Resources.
 
 
 
ozone2002
    25-May-2026 10:42  
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Last:0.47        -0.03
durian season returned so quickly 
down a lot then buy a lot DCA
gd luck


ozone2002      ( Date: 23-May-2026 09:07) Posted:

Last:0.5        +0.035
counter cleared for upside as buyers pile on to Geo
downside has been reversed and poised to regain its billion $ company status again


ozone2002      ( Date: 22-May-2026 11:32) Posted:

Last:0.475        +0.01
hope everyone DCA on dip until super shiok 
time to rebound back to billion dollar company again


 
 
finjungle
    25-May-2026 10:38  
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This counter always "oneself play ownself" not own self check ownself

tccroy      ( Date: 25-May-2026 10:15) Posted:

Short selling appears again 😕

 
 
Joelton
    25-May-2026 10:37  
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Geo Energy: Statement on Indonesia&rsquo s new plan to centralise control of commodity exports 
 
The Board of Directors (&ldquo Directors&rdquo ) of Geo Energy Resources Limited (the &ldquo Company&rdquo , and together with its subsidiaries, the &ldquo Group&rdquo ) (SGX:RE4) wishes to provide a statement in relation to recent media reports regarding Indonesia&rsquo s proposed plan to centralise control of commodity exports.
 
The Directors note that the Indonesian Government&rsquo s proposed centralisation of commodity export controls reflects a broader policy direction aimed at strengthening state oversight and improving coordination across key resource sectors in Indonesia.
 
While the initiative may enhance regulatory efficiency and support national revenue objectives over the longer term, further clarity is expected regarding the implementation framework, administrative processes, and documentation requirements.
 
The Directors believe that this transition period may take time to fully evolve and be implemented, as policies are refined and operationalised across the relevant agencies and industry stakeholders.
 
At this stage, the Company has not received any official communication or directive in relation to the matter and will continue to closely monitor developments, while engaging with the relevant authorities and stakeholders as appropriate. The Company will make further announcement on this matter if and when there are further developments.
 
The Group&rsquo s fundamentals remain strong. Our current production, logistics, customer relationships, and export activities continue as normal. We continue to make steady progress on our MBJ Integrated Infrastructure, with successful truck trials completed last week and on track to commence operations in the second half of 2026. Coal prices remain strong, with ICI4 at US$64.43 per tonne as of 22 May 2026. The Group will continue to execute its growth strategy and operational plans in a disciplined manner while remaining agile and responsive to evolving regulatory and policy developments. 
 

 
FOREVERFREEDOM
    25-May-2026 10:22  
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Yes, queue again, but dun know got chance to buy 0.42-0.43 or not.

tccroy      ( Date: 25-May-2026 10:18) Posted:

Buy back again
Now queueing at 46

tccroy      ( Date: 25-May-2026 10:15) Posted:

Short selling appears again 😕


 
 
tccroy
    25-May-2026 10:18  
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Buy back again
Now queueing at 46

tccroy      ( Date: 25-May-2026 10:15) Posted:

Short selling appears again 😕

 
 
tccroy
    25-May-2026 10:15  
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Short selling appears again 😕
 
 
piscesmonkey
    25-May-2026 09:35  
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News not good
 
 
lailai
    25-May-2026 09:32  
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wow great news by melati. trials completed successfully, on track to commence operations in 2nd half 2026. ext from his latest news release:
successful truck trials completed last week and on track to commence operations in the second half of 2026. Coal prices remain strong, with ICI4 at US$64.43 per tonne as of 22 May 2026. The Group will continue to execute its growth strategy and operational plans in a disciplined manner while remaining agile and responsive to evolving regulatory and policy developments.
 

 
lailai
    25-May-2026 09:00  
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thanks for yr positive bullish analysis. may geo rebound to 60c by end week, after dropping from 67.5c a wk or so ago.
next wk jun starts, waiting for melati' s progress report on hiway. if fully tested and completed, then breaking past barrier of 65c and peak 67.5c shd be no issue.
just opnn, jia u.

JurongW      ( Date: 24-May-2026 14:46) Posted:

A bullish engulfing candlestick with share price closing above the 200 EMA on Friday - A postive signal that GEO may continue its upward momentum this week.

JIa you.

 
 
tccroy
    25-May-2026 08:55  
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According to the announcement below, Geo carries their transactions as normal. The fundamental is still there and looking forward to the MBJ project. Meaning, it has been over done in the past few days of trading

ozone2002      ( Date: 25-May-2026 08:48) Posted:


 
 
thinkpad
    25-May-2026 08:52  
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Lol, if you know the past presidents, there were tougher times... one was duped as crazy for women, one for duped as crazy for power, and another was duped as simply crazy..
 
 
Taylor
    25-May-2026 08:48  
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This president not easy to
 
 
thinkpad
    25-May-2026 08:48  
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Last Friday, the Jakarta Composite Index recovered abit, and most commodity counters also recovered, some even double digits only a handful still down last friday despie that.
Think the market knows who the gov is targeting, or at least seem Geo is not implicated so far.
 
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