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HKLand is one of my favourite core holdings, but I am still very reluctant to use the word ' undervalued' for it. The bulk of its operating profit comes from its Central crown jewels that had provided stable recurring rental income. Even the new upcoming investment properties have relatively small floor area compared to the total floor area HKLand is deriving its income from... so their rental contribution towards the bottomline is not likely to exceed 5-10%. Due to the nature of such business, P/B is completely irrelevant (so is fair value gain from revaluation of these assets) as the owners are not going to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs anytime in the foreseable future.
If you just take into account the P/E ratio based on the underlying profit (excluding fair value gain), it is not any lower comparing with its peers. In fact, the current P/E is around 60 percentile of its 10 years' historical P/E. It is kind of a fair price to me, and definitely not undervalued, considering that you could get a better deal in 6 out of the past 10 years.. Depending on the property/rental market sentiment, it could go rise, but so could it fall.
If you just take into account the P/E ratio based on the underlying profit (excluding fair value gain), it is not any lower comparing with its peers. In fact, the current P/E is around 60 percentile of its 10 years' historical P/E. It is kind of a fair price to me, and definitely not undervalued, considering that you could get a better deal in 6 out of the past 10 years.. Depending on the property/rental market sentiment, it could go rise, but so could it fall.
Jimboy ( Date: 30-Sep-2017 16:51) Posted:
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Norman Chan, HKMA Chief considered the notion that HK' s property price " will never come down" is irrational. This news is released in HKEJ Sept 30 2017, 9:58am. Details of this news can be found on follow website :- (http://www2.hkej.com/instantnews/hongkong/article/1669951/陳 德 霖 %3A若 認 為 樓 價 只 升 不 跌 是 不 理 性 ).
I am agreeable to Norman' s proposition. Having said this, our interest is HK Land. So, let' s do a bit of home work to see it from the perspective of HK Land' s investor. To make thing simple, we can view the property market in three segments:-
(a) Residential Property Segment
Over the years, the HK government and HKMA have implemented many property cooling measures like additional stamp duty and higher upfront cash payment for luxurious residential properties...etc. They were not very successful in driving the price in this sector down so far. I think Norman Chan' s comment is only talking about this segment of the market to be more specific.
Impact on HK Land: Irrelevant
Reason: HK Land has no residential investment property in HK
(b) Commercial Property Segment
No cooling measure for this sector in HK. In Jan 2017, SCMP reported that people saw a new trend , the International MNCs are moving out of Central Office locations in HK and Chinese firms are replacing them and relocated to those Prime Locations because Hong Kong&rsquo s record office rents drive more firms out of Central to outer suburbs. (http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2066752/hong-kongs-record-office-rents-drive-more-firms-out-central)
Impact on HK Land: Surprisingly, HK Land Offices' average net rent increased and vacancy dropped. And, HK Land has less Chinese tenants as compared to other Central properties.
AVERAGE RENTS & VACANCY
1H 2016 2H 2016 1H 2017
Average net rent (HK$ psf/month) 103 103 106
Period-end vacancy 3.1% 2.2% 1.5%
Weighted average lease expiry(years) 4.0 3.8 4.0
Reason: HK Land have 12 investment properties and all are located in Central HK. These buildings are interconnected either via subway or overhead bridge and accessible to MTR within walking distance. Their properties have a good mixed of timing stretching from the oldest one Prince&rsquo s Building which was opened in 1965 to the newest one Chater House which was opened in 2003. The good mix of old and new properties, bother retail and commercial provides them with a better ecology mix and give their tenants/prospects with different rental range to choose from. And, their wealth of property management experience kept the 52 years old Prince&rsquo s Building look' s pretty " new" , well maintained both internally and externally..
(c ) Retail Property Segment
In July 2017, SCMP qouted that, &ldquo Many of the big international brands that signed leases at the top of the market a few years ago are willing to hand over to newcomers, as the city&rsquo s retail slump continues&hellip Helen Mak, senior director and head of retail services at Knight Frank, said now is a good opportunity for retailers to expand as landlords are willing to lower rents.&rdquo (http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2101192/property-agents-have-black-joke-describe-centrals-retail)
HK Land: Very little impact on HK Land&rsquo s rent and vacancy for their retail investment property in Central.
AVERAGE RENT AND VANCANCY
1H 2016 2H 2016 1H 2017
Average net rent (HK$ psf/month) 216 220 224
Period-end vacancy 0% 0% 0.6%
Weighted average lease expiry(years) 2.6 2.8 2.7
Reason: The good mix of ecology and the interconnecting feature of the 12 buidlings make HK Land&rsquo s retail outlets unique in Central HK. Let say, after their customers have reached Central via MTR, they can walk to any of the restaurants there to enjoy a meal and do some shopping within these 12 buildings without the worry of being exposed to the sun nor rain. This helped to maintain their footfall over the decades.
Having said all this, I do not have any crystal ball in hand that will tell me how the marco economy will go from here. Only time can tell. But, one thing I do know, the strong balance sheet, highly undervalued share price and wealth of property managment experience will be their differentiator both in good times and bad times. Please feel free to correct me so that I can learn from your opinion and experience as well.
Good weekend!
I am agreeable to Norman' s proposition. Having said this, our interest is HK Land. So, let' s do a bit of home work to see it from the perspective of HK Land' s investor. To make thing simple, we can view the property market in three segments:-
(a) Residential Property Segment
Over the years, the HK government and HKMA have implemented many property cooling measures like additional stamp duty and higher upfront cash payment for luxurious residential properties...etc. They were not very successful in driving the price in this sector down so far. I think Norman Chan' s comment is only talking about this segment of the market to be more specific.
Impact on HK Land: Irrelevant
Reason: HK Land has no residential investment property in HK
(b) Commercial Property Segment
No cooling measure for this sector in HK. In Jan 2017, SCMP reported that people saw a new trend , the International MNCs are moving out of Central Office locations in HK and Chinese firms are replacing them and relocated to those Prime Locations because Hong Kong&rsquo s record office rents drive more firms out of Central to outer suburbs. (http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2066752/hong-kongs-record-office-rents-drive-more-firms-out-central)
Impact on HK Land: Surprisingly, HK Land Offices' average net rent increased and vacancy dropped. And, HK Land has less Chinese tenants as compared to other Central properties.
AVERAGE RENTS & VACANCY
1H 2016 2H 2016 1H 2017
Average net rent (HK$ psf/month) 103 103 106
Period-end vacancy 3.1% 2.2% 1.5%
Weighted average lease expiry(years) 4.0 3.8 4.0
Reason: HK Land have 12 investment properties and all are located in Central HK. These buildings are interconnected either via subway or overhead bridge and accessible to MTR within walking distance. Their properties have a good mixed of timing stretching from the oldest one Prince&rsquo s Building which was opened in 1965 to the newest one Chater House which was opened in 2003. The good mix of old and new properties, bother retail and commercial provides them with a better ecology mix and give their tenants/prospects with different rental range to choose from. And, their wealth of property management experience kept the 52 years old Prince&rsquo s Building look' s pretty " new" , well maintained both internally and externally..
(c ) Retail Property Segment
In July 2017, SCMP qouted that, &ldquo Many of the big international brands that signed leases at the top of the market a few years ago are willing to hand over to newcomers, as the city&rsquo s retail slump continues&hellip Helen Mak, senior director and head of retail services at Knight Frank, said now is a good opportunity for retailers to expand as landlords are willing to lower rents.&rdquo (http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2101192/property-agents-have-black-joke-describe-centrals-retail)
HK Land: Very little impact on HK Land&rsquo s rent and vacancy for their retail investment property in Central.
AVERAGE RENT AND VANCANCY
1H 2016 2H 2016 1H 2017
Average net rent (HK$ psf/month) 216 220 224
Period-end vacancy 0% 0% 0.6%
Weighted average lease expiry(years) 2.6 2.8 2.7
Reason: The good mix of ecology and the interconnecting feature of the 12 buidlings make HK Land&rsquo s retail outlets unique in Central HK. Let say, after their customers have reached Central via MTR, they can walk to any of the restaurants there to enjoy a meal and do some shopping within these 12 buildings without the worry of being exposed to the sun nor rain. This helped to maintain their footfall over the decades.
Having said all this, I do not have any crystal ball in hand that will tell me how the marco economy will go from here. Only time can tell. But, one thing I do know, the strong balance sheet, highly undervalued share price and wealth of property managment experience will be their differentiator both in good times and bad times. Please feel free to correct me so that I can learn from your opinion and experience as well.
Good weekend!
Jimboy ( Date: 28-Sep-2017 08:58) Posted:
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Thanks for the info.
Jimboy ( Date: 28-Sep-2017 20:23) Posted:
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Good question! Let me do some research on this.
As at 30 Jun 2017, HK Land' s Investment Properties of value USD 34.6 Billion. According to their bar chart, pure by eye sight, I found that around USD 28 Billion located in HK. Since HKD is pegged to USD at 7.8 to 1. So, you can find the most efficient swap between USD and HKD vice versa. So, around 80% of their assets are in a way fixed in terms of USD. So is their rental income are mostly in HKD i.e. USD as well.
If you look at their bank account, all USD 1.8 Billion cash are in USD and there is no RMB or HKD.
To conclude, I think they are pretty much like a MNC based in US with oversea exposure. So, shorting them when USD is going up is a bit risky.
Thanks for your question, and I to correct a few thing I said wrong on this topic earlier.
Good trading and investment!
As at 30 Jun 2017, HK Land' s Investment Properties of value USD 34.6 Billion. According to their bar chart, pure by eye sight, I found that around USD 28 Billion located in HK. Since HKD is pegged to USD at 7.8 to 1. So, you can find the most efficient swap between USD and HKD vice versa. So, around 80% of their assets are in a way fixed in terms of USD. So is their rental income are mostly in HKD i.e. USD as well.
If you look at their bank account, all USD 1.8 Billion cash are in USD and there is no RMB or HKD.
To conclude, I think they are pretty much like a MNC based in US with oversea exposure. So, shorting them when USD is going up is a bit risky.
Thanks for your question, and I to correct a few thing I said wrong on this topic earlier.
Good trading and investment!
investshare ( Date: 28-Sep-2017 17:09) Posted:
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But the asset are outside US. So if USD appreciate, then the stock price in USD should drop?
USD vs SGD is Trending up again
" USD is trending higher again once the FED announced it will begin to roll off its USD 4.5 trillion balance sheet from October 2017 onwards. We are expecting the exchange rate of USD (i.e. price of USD) will continue to increase over time as and when the supply of USD in the market is kept reducing by USD 10 billion per month to USD 50 billion per month over time." (earlier message at 21 Sept 2017, 16:00+)
At that point of time, USD/SGD was around 1.349+/-, check with the bloomberg rate, it is currently at around 1.3620. In other word, holding USD against SGD has gone up by almost 1% in 5-6 working days. Please note that FED hasn' t started to wind down its balance sheet as yet. For shorter of USD counters, please be aware that FED is intending to raise FED rate on Dec 17 too...
Good investment, trading and have a blessed day!
" USD is trending higher again once the FED announced it will begin to roll off its USD 4.5 trillion balance sheet from October 2017 onwards. We are expecting the exchange rate of USD (i.e. price of USD) will continue to increase over time as and when the supply of USD in the market is kept reducing by USD 10 billion per month to USD 50 billion per month over time." (earlier message at 21 Sept 2017, 16:00+)
At that point of time, USD/SGD was around 1.349+/-, check with the bloomberg rate, it is currently at around 1.3620. In other word, holding USD against SGD has gone up by almost 1% in 5-6 working days. Please note that FED hasn' t started to wind down its balance sheet as yet. For shorter of USD counters, please be aware that FED is intending to raise FED rate on Dec 17 too...
Good investment, trading and have a blessed day!
Liquidity driven inflation
" Hong Kong (property) prices reached record highs earlier this year. " Hong Kong has been a crazy market, prices will never come down," Mr Wee (BNP Paribas' Asia-Pacific head of research for financial institutions and property ) said.
With China' s government stemming capital outflows, money has become stuck in Hong Kong, he said. " If you' re in a country where the physical amount of investable assets is really small, then the liquidity will squeeze the asset price very quickly." " Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/business/rebound-seen-in-spore-home-prices-expert
Hi ppdghius,
Downgrade of Hong Kong' s long term credit rating from Aa1 to Aa2 (Moody' s) and AAA to AA+ (S& P) should have very limited or virtually no impact on HK Land. Despite the downgrade, this is still the second highest credit ratings that S& P and Moddy' s can give.
BTW, I would like ask you this questionn instead:-
Given that USA' s credit ratings by S& P is AA+ also. Would you advise people not to buy Apple, Google, Facebook, IBM, Exxon Mobil because of this reason?
Good day!
Downgrade of Hong Kong' s long term credit rating from Aa1 to Aa2 (Moody' s) and AAA to AA+ (S& P) should have very limited or virtually no impact on HK Land. Despite the downgrade, this is still the second highest credit ratings that S& P and Moddy' s can give.
BTW, I would like ask you this questionn instead:-
Given that USA' s credit ratings by S& P is AA+ also. Would you advise people not to buy Apple, Google, Facebook, IBM, Exxon Mobil because of this reason?
Good day!
ppdghius ( Date: 24-Sep-2017 22:24) Posted:
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From jimboy posting below,
In view of the above multi-billion dollar new projects in 2017, " Moody' s Investors Service still says that Hongkong Land Holdings Limited' s (HKLH) 2017 interim results were in line with Moody' s expectations and continue to support the company' s A3 issuer rating." ( Moody' s: Hongkong Land' s 1H 2017 results support its ratings https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Hongkong-Lands-1H-2017-results-support-its-ratings--PR_370942)
While from my view, as the company is of low gearing, should not have much impact on interest expenses to Hongkongland and could establish a competitive advantage to Hongkongland.
In view of the above multi-billion dollar new projects in 2017, " Moody' s Investors Service still says that Hongkong Land Holdings Limited' s (HKLH) 2017 interim results were in line with Moody' s expectations and continue to support the company' s A3 issuer rating." ( Moody' s: Hongkong Land' s 1H 2017 results support its ratings https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Hongkong-Lands-1H-2017-results-support-its-ratings--PR_370942)
While from my view, as the company is of low gearing, should not have much impact on interest expenses to Hongkongland and could establish a competitive advantage to Hongkongland.
Credit rating of hong kong has been downgraded. How will this affect hongkong land?
Thanks.
Jimboy ( Date: 23-Sep-2017 21:53) Posted:
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Good stuff! I can understand where you are coming from, but I have nothing much to add as I am not technical in charting...
One more thing, the WF Central Retail Mall in Beijing will be soft open in coming November after the 19th People' s Congress. According to their executives in the webcast, they are in good progress in terms of leasing out the WF Central Retail Mall units. In total, it' s lettable area is about 50,000 square meter (i.e. around 500,000 sq ft)
Good night!
One more thing, the WF Central Retail Mall in Beijing will be soft open in coming November after the 19th People' s Congress. According to their executives in the webcast, they are in good progress in terms of leasing out the WF Central Retail Mall units. In total, it' s lettable area is about 50,000 square meter (i.e. around 500,000 sq ft)
Good night!
calvinlooi ( Date: 23-Sep-2017 16:40) Posted:
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Hi Shareinvest,
Regarding your question " Did they give any reason for (i)"
- Yes. They found the additional rules and regulations for REITs such as higher payout rate from earnings is quite restrictive for them. Please watch the webcast for exact wordings. Good night!
Regarding your question " Did they give any reason for (i)"
- Yes. They found the additional rules and regulations for REITs such as higher payout rate from earnings is quite restrictive for them. Please watch the webcast for exact wordings. Good night!
Here come TA analysis on (hour) for this week transactions:
1. You can see the buy up is at high volume, while the sell down is at low volume.
2. Although the share price decrease at the end, ADX is of upward moving.
3. RSI reaches 85 (cross above70) on 14-19 while RSI reach 25 (cross below 30) on 21th. Showing overbrought for the first few day and oversold for the last few days.
4. MACD slight cross on Friday, starting upward trend (this one to continue to observe.
The trend is still upward movements, means that everytimes will someone buy up (at large volume) got ppl quickly sell down (at low volume). If you think this positively, it means that the accumulated is on going but not letting ppl know.
Let me know your observe on TA if any.
1. You can see the buy up is at high volume, while the sell down is at low volume.
2. Although the share price decrease at the end, ADX is of upward moving.
3. RSI reaches 85 (cross above70) on 14-19 while RSI reach 25 (cross below 30) on 21th. Showing overbrought for the first few day and oversold for the last few days.
4. MACD slight cross on Friday, starting upward trend (this one to continue to observe.
The trend is still upward movements, means that everytimes will someone buy up (at large volume) got ppl quickly sell down (at low volume). If you think this positively, it means that the accumulated is on going but not letting ppl know.
Let me know your observe on TA if any.
Did they give any reason for (i)?
Jimboy ( Date: 23-Sep-2017 16:01) Posted:
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First of all, after watching the HK Land 2017 1H result webcast, I realized that I am wrong on a few things:-
(i) HK Land will not consider using the REIT approach to unlock the value of their investment properties.
(ii) CFO Simon Dixon mentioned that they have explored on Stock Buyback at board level. And it would take at least USD 500M worth of buyback in order for this to be meaningful. And this money could be used on new projects instead.
(iii) Their MD Robert Wong seems pretty agressive in acquiring new projects by leveraging on their strong balance sheet so as to unlock stock value.
(http://webcast.irasia.com/hkland/halfyearly/2017/archived.php)
HK Land Holding Limtied&rsquo s five acquisitions in the first half of 2017
Good day!
(i) HK Land will not consider using the REIT approach to unlock the value of their investment properties.
(ii) CFO Simon Dixon mentioned that they have explored on Stock Buyback at board level. And it would take at least USD 500M worth of buyback in order for this to be meaningful. And this money could be used on new projects instead.
(iii) Their MD Robert Wong seems pretty agressive in acquiring new projects by leveraging on their strong balance sheet so as to unlock stock value.
(http://webcast.irasia.com/hkland/halfyearly/2017/archived.php)
HK Land Holding Limtied&rsquo s five acquisitions in the first half of 2017
- The Esse at Sukhumvit 36 (49% owned) , Thailand &ndash Development Property
- Eunosvilles (100% owned), Thailand &ndash Development Property
- Nanjing (33% owned), China &ndash Development Property
- Wuhan Salon Phase 2 (50% owned), China &ndash Development Property
- Marina Financial Bay Site (33% owned), Singapore &ndash Investment Property
Good day!
Agree. My gut feel is that there is limited downside with a very big potential on the upside. It is a share to own and that we can sleep well on one hand.
On the other hand, their prudent management philosophy led to under usage of assets hence underpricing of the share price. Test selling of excelsior hotel bvi could be a good start. How far their management is willing to change their long term strategy
will have great impact on its future growth potential and share value.
calvinlooi ( Date: 22-Sep-2017 13:18) Posted:
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My view is as follows:
1. The previous decline is share price is due to global factor. NK and drop in USD. Currently USD is more or less stable to me. Therefore the graph and Macd not looking good.
2. The fv gain sure can take in. It is a investment property and property developers.
3. The recent s& p downgrade loan is even better. The company got low gearing. This is competitive advantage.
1. The previous decline is share price is due to global factor. NK and drop in USD. Currently USD is more or less stable to me. Therefore the graph and Macd not looking good.
2. The fv gain sure can take in. It is a investment property and property developers.
3. The recent s& p downgrade loan is even better. The company got low gearing. This is competitive advantage.
At the moment, it seems that 7.2ish is the resistance level on the low side. And, 7.8 ish is the resistance on the high side. On the other hand, analyts from CIMB and DBS think that it should be a 8ish or 9ish counter. Only time will tell how the market moves.
calvinlooi ( Date: 22-Sep-2017 10:51) Posted:
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Jimboy, what is ur TP for Hongkong Land?