SIA    Last:7.05   -

SIA revived

Why buy SIA when u can buy SIAE and SATS. Both stocks have already soared so high since last week.

 

fundamentally they will be making alot huge losses this Q

 

Today, temporarily forget about what SIA is about to do, have not done, what they are going to do....etc. Temporary forget about the fundamentals and how much cash they have now.

Just watch the market closely. Looks like regulators/moderators are in play and keeping the prices tight. Not much volatility other than the opening half hour or so..

I have put in a Queue Sell at a very high asking price, just to play safe. May not get, but at least can live to play another day.....

 

Yes, you are right. I took a closer look again. It was ranging $9-10 or so for almost an entire decade. And the TERP was calculated based on almost $6, so the TERP is already 60% off already. 

So ok, if I work it backwards, personally I think SIA can cover back to the 60% so they should be able to hit the TERP in one year.

kcowen      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 12:42) Posted: in the first place, your this statement is wrong"     TERP price is about $4.60 or something, right? This is considering original pre-pandemic price  " , pre-pandemic price is way higher than this even after considering dilution. SQueeze      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:50) Posted: I can see where Citi is coming from. TERP price is about $4.60 or something, right? This is considering original pre-pandemic price and then diluted.  So where do we see SIA one year from now. Citibank values it at 80% based on $3.80. I would consider SQ extremely lucky if they can restore their business to 80% pre-pandemic.  Look at the kind of trouble people have to go through to go to China. Is that going to invite back 100% previous traffic. And this is just one country. then next and next and next.  Unless we get a vaccine, 80% of TERP is good enough IMO.  But of course in the long term, SIA will be alright. They have a strong branding, strong govt backing, and other airlines will fail and the market will improve. but this is longer horizon than 1 year.  So I personally believe in $3.80 target price.  Make your profits while you all still can now.

 

half time 4.36
 

 

in the first place, your this statement is wrong"     TERP price is about $4.60 or something, right? This is considering original pre-pandemic price  " , pre-pandemic price is way higher than this even after considering dilution.

SQueeze      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:50) Posted: I can see where Citi is coming from. TERP price is about $4.60 or something, right? This is considering original pre-pandemic price and then diluted.  So where do we see SIA one year from now. Citibank values it at 80% based on $3.80. I would consider SQ extremely lucky if they can restore their business to 80% pre-pandemic.  Look at the kind of trouble people have to go through to go to China. Is that going to invite back 100% previous traffic. And this is just one country. then next and next and next.  Unless we get a vaccine, 80% of TERP is good enough IMO.  But of course in the long term, SIA will be alright. They have a strong branding, strong govt backing, and other airlines will fail and the market will improve. but this is longer horizon than 1 year.  So I personally believe in $3.80 target price.  Make your profits while you all still can now.  Goldfinger      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:17) Posted: If the global economy does not recover, Citi may face a mountain of bad debt - and it may not survive either. Btw, silly to fight against Temasek. Is Citi crazy

 

hi where to u find this data from?

SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 12:36) Posted: Bid Bid Vol(K) Ask Ask Vol(K) 4.370 174.9 4.370 116.5 4.360 185.1 4.380 56.4 4.350 369.1 4.390 291.1 4.340 138.9 4.400 654.6 4.330 174.7 4.410 370.8 4.320 114.9 4.420 253.7 4.310 129.1 4.430 97.8 4.300 1,121.7 4.440 133.5 4.290 109.8 4.450 351.1 4.280 204.7 4.460 108.2 4.270 48 4.470 96.7 4.260 203.4 4.480 210.3 4.250 362.8 4.490 126.6 4.240 263.8 4.500 867.3 4.230 64.6 4.510 82.5 4.220 303.6 4.520 84.6 4.210 246.1 4.530 74.2 4.200 760.3 4.540 62 Trade with awareness SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 12:29) Posted: Ppl are holding on to it? Trade with ?

 

Bid Bid Vol(K) Ask Ask Vol(K)
4.370 174.9 4.370 116.5
4.360 185.1 4.380 56.4
4.350 369.1 4.390 291.1
4.340 138.9 4.400 654.6
4.330 174.7 4.410 370.8
4.320 114.9 4.420 253.7
4.310 129.1 4.430 97.8
4.300 1,121.7 4.440 133.5
4.290 109.8 4.450 351.1
4.280 204.7 4.460 108.2
4.270 48 4.470 96.7
4.260 203.4 4.480 210.3
4.250 362.8 4.490 126.6
4.240 263.8 4.500 867.3
4.230 64.6 4.510 82.5
4.220 303.6 4.520 84.6
4.210 246.1 4.530 74.2
4.200 760.3 4.540 62



Trade with awareness

SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 12:29) Posted: Ppl are holding on to it? Trade with ?

 

Ppl are holding on to it?




Trade with ?

 

Exactly correlates to my point. SIA has been relatively flat and slowly declining even before the Covid-19 pandemic began. The current board of directors and CEO have not performed to Temasek expectations, and they will be replaced within this 10-year period. The directors and CEO know that their time is up, and it shows in their commitment to long-term plays like the MCBs. The board of directors and CEO cannot blame everything on the Covid-19 pandemic to save their skins. The rate of cash burn for this current worst case scenario is unacceptable. Fresh blood will definitely be introduced to make SIA fly higher in the long-term.

Just my less than one cent worth of opinion.

Vested in shares and MCBs.

SQueeze      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 12:11) Posted: I think it' s just a matter of personal diversification.  If i already have so many SIA shares, and I still have some spare cash, i would like to invest elsewhere now that the market is recovering. Why put all in one basket that is called SIA.  The MCB always gets beaten but let' s see who is eventually right if this forum is still around after 10 years.  Even before Covid-19, SIA has been relatively flat and slowly declining since the peak for the past 10 years.  Assuming it' s the same market the next 10 years, we should still SIA at around TERP? slightly under 5 dollars.  So who gains the most in that time horizon? 1. Buy on 8 June at $4.30  2. Exercise Rights at $3 3. Exercise Rights at $3.60 buying R at the open market.  4. Buy MCB at calculated price of $2.68 or $2.68+0.1c at open market and have patience to last 10 years.  Boatman      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:55) Posted: Must be the board approve the financing strategy with Right+MCB. End up they dont have the confident to buy the MCB and let consumer and Temasek take up the stake. IT really sound no sense

 

I think it' s just a matter of personal diversification. 
If i already have so many SIA shares, and I still have some spare cash, i would like to invest elsewhere now that the market is recovering.
Why put all in one basket that is called SIA. 

The MCB always gets beaten but let' s see who is eventually right if this forum is still around after 10 years. 
Even before Covid-19, SIA has been relatively flat and slowly declining since the peak for the past 10 years. 
Assuming it' s the same market the next 10 years, we should still SIA at around TERP? slightly under 5 dollars. 
So who gains the most in that time horizon?

1. Buy on 8 June at $4.30 
2. Exercise Rights at $3
3. Exercise Rights at $3.60 buying R at the open market. 
4. Buy MCB at calculated price of $2.68 or $2.68+0.1c at open market and have patience to last 10 years. 

Boatman      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:55) Posted: Must be the board approve the financing strategy with Right+MCB. End up they dont have the confident to buy the MCB and let consumer and Temasek take up the stake. IT really sound no sense

 

I apply excess rights and didnt get it. Not enough

 

Currently, Temasek has about 95+% of SIA' s MCBs. It is highly risky to short the MCB as it will likely be mopped up by Temasek. It has been the Singapore Government' s determination that SIA will not crash and burn, so it is highly likely that the MCBs will give a fairly good return on maturity in 10 years' time. Forget about the Chairman, CEO and other directors of the SIA board with regards to their personal choice of not exercising their MCB rights. They will be replaced within this 10-year period for less than satisfactory performance in managing the airline. 

Just my less than 1 cent worth of opinion...

Vested in shares and MCBs.   

 

 

Stop selling your shares

 

was expecting price to go down due to dilution so i can pick up a few lots.. seems otherwise now.. coming in strong. 

 

Must be the board approve the financing strategy with Right+MCB.
End up they dont have the confident to buy the MCB and let consumer and Temasek take up the stake.
IT really sound no sense

 

Oic.. thanks thanks 😁

Didnt know that 😓

boyboy61      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 09:45) Posted: ypu. just like any bond that is listed. Code : WPOB Bennytan23      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 09:36) Posted: How u trade MCB? Can trade MCB meh?

 

Even the chairman and CEO let their MCB lapsed as reported in Strait Times

whenissued      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:51) Posted: Correction. Citibank slashed its Target price to $3.40, not $3.81. My mistake. Vested in shares and MCBs. whenissued      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:15) Posted: Citibank is planning to make a killing by likely shorting this stock. Citibank' s extremely negative outlook (Target price: $3.81, Sell) does not take into consideration that the global economy will recover. Citibank is looking to make gains trading in the current/short term. The global economy recovery will be gradual, and it will recover. SIA is one stock considered by the Singapore Government as " too big to fail" . If Singapore did not have their own airline, it will be at the mercy of the regional and international airlines. Think of this: Ever tried connecting flights via Kuala Lumpur? How long a wait did you experience in the transit lounge to connect a flight to Singapore if you came in from other countries, say, Los Angeles, USA? Personally experienced a crazy wait of 2+ hours! For a connecting flight from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore!! SIA is meant to ensure Singapore remains a prominent transport hub in the international scene. If SIA fails, Singapore will fail, slowly but surely. If SIA does not make it as at least a $6 stock in 10 years' time, it will indicate Singapore as a whole is in bad shape. Just my less than 1 cent worth of opinion... Vested in shares and MCBs.

 

Correction. Citibank slashed its Target price to $3.40, not $3.81. My mistake.

Vested in shares and MCBs.

whenissued      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:15) Posted: Citibank is planning to make a killing by likely shorting this stock. Citibank' s extremely negative outlook (Target price: $3.81, Sell) does not take into consideration that the global economy will recover. Citibank is looking to make gains trading in the current/short term. The global economy recovery will be gradual, and it will recover. SIA is one stock considered by the Singapore Government as " too big to fail" . If Singapore did not have their own airline, it will be at the mercy of the regional and international airlines. Think of this: Ever tried connecting flights via Kuala Lumpur? How long a wait did you experience in the transit lounge to connect a flight to Singapore if you came in from other countries, say, Los Angeles, USA? Personally experienced a crazy wait of 2+ hours! For a connecting flight from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore!! SIA is meant to ensure Singapore remains a prominent transport hub in the international scene. If SIA fails, Singapore will fail, slowly but surely. If SIA does not make it as at least a $6 stock in 10 years' time, it will indicate Singapore as a whole is in bad shape. Just my less than 1 cent worth of opinion... Vested in shares and MCBs.

 

I can see where Citi is coming from. TERP price is about $4.60 or something, right? This is considering original pre-pandemic price and then diluted. 
So where do we see SIA one year from now. Citibank values it at 80% based on $3.80. I would consider SQ extremely lucky if they can restore their business to 80% pre-pandemic. 

Look at the kind of trouble people have to go through to go to China. Is that going to invite back 100% previous traffic. And this is just one country. then next and next and next. 
Unless we get a vaccine, 80% of TERP is good enough IMO. 

But of course in the long term, SIA will be alright. They have a strong branding, strong govt backing, and other airlines will fail and the market will improve. but this is longer horizon than 1 year. 
So I personally believe in $3.80 target price. 

Make your profits while you all still can now. 

Goldfinger      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:17) Posted: If the global economy does not recover, Citi may face a mountain of bad debt - and it may not survive either. Btw, silly to fight against Temasek. Is Citi crazy? whenissued      ( Date: 08-Jun-2020 11:15) Posted: Citibank is planning to make a killing by likely shorting this stock. Citibank' s extremely negative outlook (Target price: $3.81, Sell) does not take into consideration that the global economy will recover. Citibank is looking to make gains trading in the current/short term. The global economy recovery will be gradual, and it will recover. SIA is one stock considered by the Singapore Government as " too big to fail" . If Singapore did not have their own airline, it will be at the mercy of the regional and international airlines. Think of this: Ever tried connecting flights via Kuala Lumpur? How long a wait did you experience in the transit lounge to connect a flight to Singapore if you came in from other countries, say, Los Angeles, USA? Personally experienced a crazy wait of 2+ hours! For a connecting flight from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore!! SIA is meant to ensure Singapore remains a prominent transport hub in the international scene. If SIA fails, Singapore will fail, slowly but surely. If SIA does not make it as at least a $6 stock in 10 years' time, it will indicate Singapore as a whole is in bad shape. Just my less than 1 cent worth of opinion... Vested in shares and MCBs.