SIA    Last:6.97    -0.08

SIA revived

Me neither.
Flying is not Yet much good news to me, they will hardly be able to fill up anything at all. No point.

$3.80 TP is not surprising to me.

SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 18:18) Posted: I'm not buying. Results for this year is ugly. Trade with prudence and buy low sell high and DYODD commando      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:58) Posted: They say sell we buy ...hah

 

No earnings nia... Not corrupted ... why avoid ?

CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 22-Jun-2020 00:15) Posted: Better avoid for now. Trader130      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 21:15) Posted: I am starting buying Liao 😂 😂 😂 Pls drop to $2 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤗 🤗 🤗

 

Guys, check your counters. I don' t know what happened at closing last Friday. Apparently there were heavy volume sell-down, possibly a few pips. 

May be more, but I noticed SIA, SembCorpInd, SembCorpMarine, ST engg..... others not affected. It was really a last-minute throw-down. Does not look like knee-jerk. At closing there is not much we can do. Seems suspicious, maybe Monday can see a better picture?

 

Better avoid for now.

Trader130      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 21:15) Posted: I am starting buying Liao 😂 😂 😂 Pls drop to $2 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤗 🤗 🤗 SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 18:18) Posted: I'm not buying. Results for this year is ugly. Trade with prudence and buy low sell high and DYODD

 

Its just a number game. Moving liability to equity. Both are credit items

EPS will fall due to enlarge shareholders. SIA will have a much larger pool of shares issued. MCBs if not redeemed will result in massive dilution of shareholdings.

Share price will fall and p/b will fall accordingly.

marketuncle      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 21:13) Posted: Sorry was busy before replying. Took a while to figure this out too. In scenario one, you are right that the conversion in 2030 won' t directly pull up the share price because no cash change hands anymore. The impact of the conversion actually happen on the balance sheet. MCBs on the liabilities will be moved to equity section and the net asset value (book value) should increase. In other words, price to book value will surge when all the MCB become new shares. Whether or not the SIA shares then will move up in tandem is another story. nngeeh      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 18:11) Posted: Yes, i agreed. However, under your scenario 1, below, if the share price is trading at $2.42 by 2030, the conversion of MCB into shares will not pull up the share price. In fact, those who invested at rights issue of $1 or off the market above $0.9 ... will be converted at technical price of $2.67 but only able to sell into the market at 2.42. They will lose money instead after 10 years unless SIA is kind enough to redeem the shares instead of letting it convert into shares. If they redeem it, the investors will get good return instead due to the interest.

 

Good that SIA loss .. drop slowly pls 😃 😃 😃

john_ric      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 19:03) Posted: 1) net loss in 2020 2) also increased its fiscal 2021 net loss estimate for SIA to S$1.64 billion from S$1.26 billion. 3) likely require further funding in fiscal 2022. (( meaning right issues. temesek unlikely to give more money)   better avoid. CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:25) Posted: UOB Kay Hian downgrades SIA to ' sell' Analyst K Ajith cites significant uncertainty over extent of cash burn, lowers target price to S$3.80 FRI, JUN 19, 2020 - 5:50 AM   UOB Kay Hian has downgraded Singapore Airlines (SIA) to " sell" from " buy" and lowered its target price on the stock to S$3.80 from S$4.35. It recommended taking profit on the national carrier. SIA shares closed at S$4.07 on Thursday, down S$0.06 or 1.5 per cent.   UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith said in a research note on Thursday that there is significant uncertainty over the extent of the decline in traffic and load factors and, consequently, the extent of cash burn. The brokerage has raised its year-on-year traffic decline estimate to 58 per cent from 45 per cent. It has also increased its fiscal 2021 net loss estimate for SIA to S$1.64 billion from S$1.26 billion. Although flight frequencies and the number of destinations are expected to go up in June and July, Mr Ajith said there is " no reason to cheer" as Singapore' s borders are effectively closed, with mandatory Covid-19 testing and stay-home notices for returning travellers. " We also believe that border restrictions will only be gradually opened and will focus on ' travel bubbles' corridors in Australia and parts of South-east Asia," he added. Moreover, fears of a new Covid-19 outbreak in Beijing could dampen " nascent recovery" in China' s domestic sector, delaying a much-needed recovery in outbound traffic. The report also noted that unless SIA defers some of its aircraft deliveries, it will likely require further funding in fiscal 2022. " SIA has to push back scheduled pre-delivery payments or else the S$8.8 billion in rights and mandatory convertible bonds proceeds might run out by end-FY2022," Mr Ajith said. However, airline manufacturers are reluctant to delay deliveries and have threatened lawsuits on some airline customers, highlighting immense pressure airlines face due to large capital expenditures (capex) and a dearth of cash flow. SIA had earlier guided for S$11 billion in capex for FY2021-2022. UOB Kay Hian estimates the carrier would have S$4 billion in debt and lease repayment due by FY2022.

 

I am starting buying Liao 😂 😂 😂 Pls drop to $2 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤗 🤗 🤗

SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 18:18) Posted: I'm not buying. Results for this year is ugly. Trade with prudence and buy low sell high and DYODD commando      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:58) Posted: They say sell we buy ...hah

 

Sorry was busy before replying. Took a while to figure this out too. In scenario one, you are right that the conversion in 2030 won' t directly pull up the share price because no cash change hands anymore. The impact of the conversion actually happen on the balance sheet. MCBs on the liabilities will be moved to equity section and the net asset value (book value) should increase. In other words, price to book value will surge when all the MCB become new shares. Whether or not the SIA shares then will move up in tandem is another story.

nngeeh      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 18:11) Posted: Yes, i agreed. However, under your scenario 1, below, if the share price is trading at $2.42 by 2030, the conversion of MCB into shares will not pull up the share price. In fact, those who invested at rights issue of $1 or off the market above $0.9 ... will be converted at technical price of $2.67 but only able to sell into the market at 2.42. They will lose money instead after 10 years unless SIA is kind enough to redeem the shares instead of letting it convert into shares. If they redeem it, the investors will get good return instead due to the interest.   marketuncle      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 12:52) Posted: MCBs are already paid up during the recent rights and bond issue. So for scenario 1, the outstanding MCBs will be converted to SIA share at a price of $4.84 each. MCB holders don' t need to cough up more cash (because they already paid) but they wont' get back cash. Instead, they' ll get additional 37.3 SIA shares for every 100 MCB they hold (whether subscribed during the last fund raising issue or now in the market).

 

1) net loss in 2020
2) also increased its fiscal 2021 net loss estimate for SIA to S$1.64 billion from S$1.26 billion.

3) likely require further funding in fiscal 2022. (( meaning right issues. temesek unlikely to give more money)
  better avoid.

CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:25) Posted: UOB Kay Hian downgrades SIA to ' sell' Analyst K Ajith cites significant uncertainty over extent of cash burn, lowers target price to S$3.80 FRI, JUN 19, 2020 - 5:50 AM   UOB Kay Hian has downgraded Singapore Airlines (SIA) to " sell" from " buy" and lowered its target price on the stock to S$3.80 from S$4.35. It recommended taking profit on the national carrier. SIA shares closed at S$4.07 on Thursday, down S$0.06 or 1.5 per cent.   UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith said in a research note on Thursday that there is significant uncertainty over the extent of the decline in traffic and load factors and, consequently, the extent of cash burn. The brokerage has raised its year-on-year traffic decline estimate to 58 per cent from 45 per cent. It has also increased its fiscal 2021 net loss estimate for SIA to S$1.64 billion from S$1.26 billion. Although flight frequencies and the number of destinations are expected to go up in June and July, Mr Ajith said there is " no reason to cheer" as Singapore' s borders are effectively closed, with mandatory Covid-19 testing and stay-home notices for returning travellers. " We also believe that border restrictions will only be gradually opened and will focus on ' travel bubbles' corridors in Australia and parts of South-east Asia," he added. Moreover, fears of a new Covid-19 outbreak in Beijing could dampen " nascent recovery" in China' s domestic sector, delaying a much-needed recovery in outbound traffic. The report also noted that unless SIA defers some of its aircraft deliveries, it will likely require further funding in fiscal 2022. " SIA has to push back scheduled pre-delivery payments or else the S$8.8 billion in rights and mandatory convertible bonds proceeds might run out by end-FY2022," Mr Ajith said. However, airline manufacturers are reluctant to delay deliveries and have threatened lawsuits on some airline customers, highlighting immense pressure airlines face due to large capital expenditures (capex) and a dearth of cash flow. SIA had earlier guided for S$11 billion in capex for FY2021-2022. UOB Kay Hian estimates the carrier would have S$4 billion in debt and lease repayment due by FY2022.

 

Take this pandemic as a lesson of what stocks to buy and sell when next pandemic strikes.
Ppl must learn from mistakes and not keep repeating them.



Trade with COVID-19 and DYODD

 

I'm not buying. Results for this year is ugly.



Trade with prudence and buy low sell high and DYODD

commando      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:58) Posted: They say sell we buy ...haha CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:25) Posted: UOB Kay Hian downgrades SIA to ' sell' Analyst K Ajith cites significant uncertainty over extent of cash burn, lowers target price to S$3.80 FRI, JUN 19, 2020 - 5:50 AM   UOB Kay Hian has downgraded Singapore Airlines (SIA) to " sell" from " buy" and lowered its target price on the stock to S$3.80 from S$4.35. It recommended taking profit on the national carrier. SIA shares closed at S$4.07 on Thursday, down S$0.06 or 1.5 per cent.   UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith said in a research note on Thursday that there is significant uncertainty over the extent of the decline in traffic and load factors and, consequently, the extent of cash burn. The brokerage has raised its year-on-year traffic decline estimate to 58 per cent from 45 per cent. It has also increased its fiscal 2021 net loss estimate for SIA to S$1.64 billion from S$1.26 billion. Although flight frequencies and the number of destinations are expected to go up in June and July, Mr Ajith said there is " no reason to cheer" as Singapore' s borders are effectively closed, with mandatory Covid-19 testing and stay-home notices for returning travellers. " We also believe that border restrictions will only be gradually opened and will focus on ' travel bubbles' corridors in Australia and parts of South-east Asia," he added. Moreover, fears of a new Covid-19 outbreak in Beijing could dampen " nascent recovery" in China' s domestic sector, delaying a much-needed recovery in outbound traffic. The report also noted that unless SIA defers some of its aircraft deliveries, it will likely require further funding in fiscal 2022. " SIA has to push back scheduled pre-delivery payments or else the S$8.8 billion in rights and mandatory convertible bonds proceeds might run out by end-FY2022," Mr Ajith said. However, airline manufacturers are reluctant to delay deliveries and have threatened lawsuits on some airline customers, highlighting immense pressure airlines face due to large capital expenditures (capex) and a dearth of cash flow. SIA had earlier guided for S$11 billion in capex for FY2021-2022. UOB Kay Hian estimates the carrier would have S$4 billion in debt and lease repayment due by FY2022.

 

They missed the boat, unable to buy cheap during EX right

Goldfinger      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 18:00) Posted: This one really cannot believe commando      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:58) Posted: They say sell we buy ...hah

 

This one really cannot believe

commando      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:58) Posted: They say sell we buy ...haha CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:25) Posted: UOB Kay Hian downgrades SIA to ' sell' Analyst K Ajith cites significant uncertainty over extent of cash burn, lowers target price to S$3.80 FRI, JUN 19, 2020 - 5:50 AM   UOB Kay Hian has downgraded Singapore Airlines (SIA) to " sell" from " buy" and lowered its target price on the stock to S$3.80 from S$4.35. It recommended taking profit on the national carrier. SIA shares closed at S$4.07 on Thursday, down S$0.06 or 1.5 per cent.   UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith said in a research note on Thursday that there is significant uncertainty over the extent of the decline in traffic and load factors and, consequently, the extent of cash burn. The brokerage has raised its year-on-year traffic decline estimate to 58 per cent from 45 per cent. It has also increased its fiscal 2021 net loss estimate for SIA to S$1.64 billion from S$1.26 billion. Although flight frequencies and the number of destinations are expected to go up in June and July, Mr Ajith said there is " no reason to cheer" as Singapore' s borders are effectively closed, with mandatory Covid-19 testing and stay-home notices for returning travellers. " We also believe that border restrictions will only be gradually opened and will focus on ' travel bubbles' corridors in Australia and parts of South-east Asia," he added. Moreover, fears of a new Covid-19 outbreak in Beijing could dampen " nascent recovery" in China' s domestic sector, delaying a much-needed recovery in outbound traffic. The report also noted that unless SIA defers some of its aircraft deliveries, it will likely require further funding in fiscal 2022. " SIA has to push back scheduled pre-delivery payments or else the S$8.8 billion in rights and mandatory convertible bonds proceeds might run out by end-FY2022," Mr Ajith said. However, airline manufacturers are reluctant to delay deliveries and have threatened lawsuits on some airline customers, highlighting immense pressure airlines face due to large capital expenditures (capex) and a dearth of cash flow. SIA had earlier guided for S$11 billion in capex for FY2021-2022. UOB Kay Hian estimates the carrier would have S$4 billion in debt and lease repayment due by FY2022.

 

They say sell we buy
...haha

CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 17:25) Posted: UOB Kay Hian downgrades SIA to ' sell' Analyst K Ajith cites significant uncertainty over extent of cash burn, lowers target price to S$3.80 FRI, JUN 19, 2020 - 5:50 AM   UOB Kay Hian has downgraded Singapore Airlines (SIA) to " sell" from " buy" and lowered its target price on the stock to S$3.80 from S$4.35. It recommended taking profit on the national carrier. SIA shares closed at S$4.07 on Thursday, down S$0.06 or 1.5 per cent.   UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith said in a research note on Thursday that there is significant uncertainty over the extent of the decline in traffic and load factors and, consequently, the extent of cash burn. The brokerage has raised its year-on-year traffic decline estimate to 58 per cent from 45 per cent. It has also increased its fiscal 2021 net loss estimate for SIA to S$1.64 billion from S$1.26 billion. Although flight frequencies and the number of destinations are expected to go up in June and July, Mr Ajith said there is " no reason to cheer" as Singapore' s borders are effectively closed, with mandatory Covid-19 testing and stay-home notices for returning travellers. " We also believe that border restrictions will only be gradually opened and will focus on ' travel bubbles' corridors in Australia and parts of South-east Asia," he added. Moreover, fears of a new Covid-19 outbreak in Beijing could dampen " nascent recovery" in China' s domestic sector, delaying a much-needed recovery in outbound traffic. The report also noted that unless SIA defers some of its aircraft deliveries, it will likely require further funding in fiscal 2022. " SIA has to push back scheduled pre-delivery payments or else the S$8.8 billion in rights and mandatory convertible bonds proceeds might run out by end-FY2022," Mr Ajith said. However, airline manufacturers are reluctant to delay deliveries and have threatened lawsuits on some airline customers, highlighting immense pressure airlines face due to large capital expenditures (capex) and a dearth of cash flow. SIA had earlier guided for S$11 billion in capex for FY2021-2022. UOB Kay Hian estimates the carrier would have S$4 billion in debt and lease repayment due by FY2022.

 

UOB Kay Hian has downgraded Singapore Airlines (SIA) to " sell" from " buy" and lowered its target price on the stock to S$3.80 from S$4.35.

It recommended taking profit on the national carrier.

SIA shares closed at S$4.07 on Thursday, down S$0.06 or 1.5 per cent.

UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith said in a research note on Thursday that there is significant uncertainty over the extent of the decline in traffic and load factors and, consequently, the extent of cash burn.

Although flight frequencies and the number of destinations are expected to go up in June and July, Mr Ajith said there is " no reason to cheer" as Singapore' s borders are effectively closed, with mandatory Covid-19 testing and stay-home notices for returning travellers.

" We also believe that border restrictions will only be gradually opened and will focus on ' travel bubbles' corridors in Australia and parts of South-east Asia," he added.

Moreover, fears of a new Covid-19 outbreak in Beijing could dampen " nascent recovery" in China' s domestic sector, delaying a much-needed recovery in outbound traffic.

The report also noted that unless SIA defers some of its aircraft deliveries, it will likely require further funding in fiscal 2022.

" SIA has to push back scheduled pre-delivery payments or else the S$8.8 billion in rights and mandatory convertible bonds proceeds might run out by end-FY2022," Mr Ajith said.

However, airline manufacturers are reluctant to delay deliveries and have threatened lawsuits on some airline customers, highlighting immense pressure airlines face due to large capital expenditures (capex) and a dearth of cash flow.

SIA had earlier guided for S$11 billion in capex for FY2021-2022. UOB Kay Hian estimates the carrier would have S$4 billion in debt and lease repayment due by FY2022.

 

It would not be difficult to alter the hospital scenario, even if a severe Second Wave occurs, by mandating that only the serious cases need to be hospitalised, while the other non serious ones have an outpatient treatment and Stay at Home restriction.
I would rather stay at home, if I have a mild COVID, than be stuck in hospital with other more serious COVID cases. Or check myself into a nice 5 star luxury hotel of my own choosing, AT MY OWN EXPENSE.

uiop1223      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 16:09) Posted: If the hospitals are again overwhelmed, u think there will not be another lockdown? The main reason for lockdown or CB is to prevent hospitals from overwhelmed so that inflected patients can receive treatment. Goldfinger      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 10:36) Posted: For those who still think there will be a Second Wave, and want to buy again at March lows - very clear that opening of economies is inevitable. The economic cost and hardship has been far too great for many segments of society

 

I doubt there is any more political will to have a second lockdown.  Frankly, I think this all may have happened in the first instance as people were not wearing surgical masks and using hand sanitizers.  Many of the FW Dorms, likely have already been cleared or they may even have herd immunity. Now, if you observe social behaviour, everyone is paranoid of everyone else whom they are not familiar with, and people get upset if you do not keep your distance. Hence, very unlikely to revert to the initial lockdown scenario.
And the day that a vaccine and cure is developed, is getting more and more closer. In fact, it would be a national trophy and national treasure - if you find the first cure and vaccine. Many brilliant scientists and teams are working on overdrive, to find this.

uiop1223      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 16:09) Posted: If the hospitals are again overwhelmed, u think there will not be another lockdown? The main reason for lockdown or CB is to prevent hospitals from overwhelmed so that inflected patients can receive treatment. Goldfinger      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 10:36) Posted: For those who still think there will be a Second Wave, and want to buy again at March lows - very clear that opening of economies is inevitable. The economic cost and hardship has been far too great for many segments of society

 

If the hospitals are again overwhelmed, u think there will not be another lockdown? The main reason for lockdown or CB is to prevent hospitals from overwhelmed so that inflected patients can receive treatment.

Goldfinger      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 10:36) Posted: For those who still think there will be a Second Wave, and want to buy again at March lows - very clear that opening of economies is inevitable. The economic cost and hardship has been far too great for many segments of society. Wasim_Trade      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 10:28) Posted: Singapore & Malyasia in discussion to let Malaysian Citizen to enter Singapore.

 

5.20 near term? Is it speculation?
It'll be one fine day but not this year. We still yet to see a normal economy without quarantine in the world.
Can SIA make enough profits this year to cover their losses?

Don't throw all your hard earned money in.



Trade with caution no contra no short and DYODD

Trader130      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 10:01) Posted: Waiting for lifted then the floated 41% equates to multiple by current price = $5.20 TP in near term  NT1825      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 08:25) Posted: 3 million shares is a small number compared to 3.0 billion total shares. Reality is that the UOB KH report has been published and received by all the broking houses here and noted by tens of thousands of investors. It is no longer considered privileged information. Major share holders make about 59% of the total old and new shares. Balance 41% are ' floated' in the market. Just 10 to 15% in volume of these shares pull out is sufficient to weaken the support at current price  and the fall is obvious like the many other counters seen recently. Many will sell now and buy back later. Buying support will be back when the price dipped to 3.6x. Anyone believes SIA is making good money now

 

For those who still think there will be a Second Wave, and want to buy again at March lows - very clear that opening of economies is inevitable. The economic cost and hardship has been far too great for many segments of society.

Wasim_Trade      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 10:28) Posted: Singapore & Malyasia in discussion to let Malaysian Citizen to enter Singapore.. NT1825      ( Date: 21-Jun-2020 08:18) Posted: How about SG side when coming back? Have SG waived the swap test and 14-day quaratine?  https://www.gov.sg/article/updates-to-border-measures-for-travellers-entering-singapor