HongkongLand USD    Last:7.42    -0.03

Hongkong Land USD

so weak when sti +36

 

profit / loss in fair value is based on last quarter' s fair value, right?  Any infor about last quarter' s psf used in the fair value computation?


 

 

Record HK$40.2 billion paid for The Center is &lsquo reasonable&rsquo , Hong Kong investor says
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2118171/record-hk402-billion-paid-center-reasonable-hong-kong
" On whether the record-breaking deal was worth the money, Lo said: &ldquo I can say that HK$32,900 per square foot is reasonable ... Buyers had paid HK$35,000 to HK$55,000 per square foot for units in that building in the past.&rdquo   The latest deal set the record for the largest amount of money ever paid for an entire office building in Hong Kong, breaking the mark set by China Evergrande Group, the country&rsquo s second-largest developer. That happened two years ago, when it forked out HK$12.5 billion to Chinese Estates Holdings for the 26-storey Mass Mutual Tower in Wan Chai.  But Lo noted that the property, now called the China Evergrande Centre, is much shorter than The Center. &ldquo And it&rsquo s not in Central, it&rsquo s in Wan Chai,&rdquo he added.
In terms of price per square foot, the Mass Mutual Tower cost more than HK$36,000 &ndash about 10 per cent more than The Center."

Based on the above quotation from SCMP,  I think that Li Ka Shing sold the Center " pretty cheap" , it might affect HK Land' s IP fair value in Central HK. Assuming that HK Land owns about 4,854,000 sq ft of IP in Central, if each sq ft worth about HK$32,900, how much profit/loss in HK Land' s fair value, every one can calculate....

Good investment! 

 

ppdghius      ( Date: 16-Nov-2017 22:30) Posted: Much of HongKong Land' s profit is derived from its fair value gain of its investment properties. Need to see how the management is going to unlock it. subaru      ( Date: 15-Nov-2017 12:46) Posted: Any views from knowledgeable  bros in this thread?

 

Much of HongKong Land' s profit is derived from its fair value gain of its investment properties. Need to see how the management is going to unlock it.

subaru      ( Date: 15-Nov-2017 12:46) Posted: Any views from knowledgeable  bros in this thread?

 

Any views from knowledgeable  bros in this thread?

 

any news?
 

 

No catalyst.

 

Under the deal, the consortium had bought 1.22 million sq ft of office space in the building at HK$32,900 per square foot.  Given that " Buyers had paid HK$35,000 to HK$55,000 per square foot for units in that building in the past" , it will affect the value of HK Land' s investment properties in Central negatively. 

Certainly, we have to take into account that time is not on the side of Mr. Li Ka Shing who is 90 years old now. We should not be surprised that he would be in a hurry to close this deal before his retirement. As a result,  he priced The Centre for quick closing.

Good Investment!

Jimboy      ( Date: 03-Nov-2017 09:26) Posted: Li Ka-shing sells The Center in US$5.15 billion record deal to trim his flagship&rsquo s Hong Kong assets http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2118008/li-ka-shing-sells-center-us515-billion-record-deal-trim-his

 

Li Ka-shing sells The Center in US$5.15 billion record deal to trim his flagship&rsquo s Hong Kong assets

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2118008/li-ka-shing-sells-center-us515-billion-record-deal-trim-his
 

 

Mar Cap of HK Land is around USD 17B but NAV of HK Land's investment properties in Central alone is more than USD 26B! Plus those outside HK, its NAV would be around another USd 6B+. Even if these ip outside HK drops a bit, impact is immaterial. Good trading!

calvinlooi      ( Date: 31-Oct-2017 15:04) Posted: No lah, the thing he ask that - those share in SGD drop is because USD up, HK land share is in USD, why drop? Jimboy      ( Date: 31-Oct-2017 14:59) Posted: Don' t think so leh...because bulk of the Investment Properties of HK Land are in HKD (pegged to USD) and just these assets alone, its value is way above HK Land' s mar cap already...... HK Land' s share price has been trading between USD 7.2 to 7.8ish range since late March 27 this year.  It has been go up and down like yo-yo repetitively for a few times already.  Looks like the market oollectively thinks that this is the right trading range given the information we have so far and people buy/sell collective accordingly. Would this  range bound trade continue until there are new news significant enough to signal which direction for the market to go from here? Still scratching my head for an answer. Good trading!

 

No lah, the thing he ask that
- those share in SGD drop is because USD up, HK land share is in USD, why drop?

Jimboy      ( Date: 31-Oct-2017 14:59) Posted: Don' t think so leh...because bulk of the Investment Properties of HK Land are in HKD (pegged to USD) and just these assets alone, its value is way above HK Land' s mar cap already...... HK Land' s share price has been trading between USD 7.2 to 7.8ish range since late March 27 this year.  It has been go up and down like yo-yo repetitively for a few times already.  Looks like the market oollectively thinks that this is the right trading range given the information we have so far and people buy/sell collective accordingly. Would this  range bound trade continue until there are new news significant enough to signal which direction for the market to go from here? Still scratching my head for an answer. Good trading!   investshare      ( Date: 31-Oct-2017 09:08) Posted: USD appreciate, so non US asset price in USD drop, this share price in USD drop?

 

Don' t think so leh...because bulk of the Investment Properties of HK Land are in HKD (pegged to USD) and just these assets alone, its value is way above HK Land' s mar cap already......

HK Land' s share price has been trading between USD 7.2 to 7.8ish range since late March 27 this year.  It has been go up and down like yo-yo repetitively for a few times already.  Looks like the market oollectively thinks that this is the right trading range given the information we have so far and people buy/sell collective accordingly.

Would this  range bound trade continue until there are new news significant enough to signal which direction for the market to go from here?

Still scratching my head for an answer. Good trading!


 

investshare      ( Date: 31-Oct-2017 09:08) Posted: USD appreciate, so non US asset price in USD drop, this share price in USD drop?

 

Even though HK Land quoted in USD, their asset are not in US.

When USD appreciate against local currency, the asset price in local currency does not change, thus it drop in USD term.

subaru      ( Date: 31-Oct-2017 10:02) Posted: don' t get the meaning, can explain? investshare      ( Date: 31-Oct-2017 09:08) Posted: USD appreciate, so non US asset price in USD drop, this share price in USD drop?

 

don' t get the meaning, can explain?

investshare      ( Date: 31-Oct-2017 09:08) Posted: USD appreciate, so non US asset price in USD drop, this share price in USD drop?

 

USD appreciate, so non US asset price in USD drop, this share price in USD drop?

 

I agree with what you said. Thanks for comparing HK Land with family run companies like UOL...etc In terms of PE and PB, HK. Land is very much undervalued comparing to these companies too... Good investing!

Hippocrates      ( Date: 27-Oct-2017 17:31) Posted: Actually I am happy that HKLand is managed in the most boring and unsexy way. It is controlled by Jardine Matheson which is still largely owned by Keswick family. Basically you have to view it as a huge family business like UOB/UIC/Haw Par of Wee' s family. Hence, the owners are *extremely* unlikely to divest their important investment properties just to boost the share price temporarily (since they don' t need the profit from the stock market anway so why kill the goose that laid the golden eggs?). On the contrary, their investment horizon is for generations as it is tied to the fate/wealth of the family. There are in fact many other properties developers that are into the game of building and divesting. You' ll see exciting time with huge windfalls, as well as quiet time when they sink into red. This is not how HKLand is managed from what I see over the years. There are much better options to trade if you are excited about increasing stock price every passing day and hope that you can sell it soon. Ignoring the stock price, HKLand' s owner earnings (real earning by Buffett' s definition, not net profit!) has been increasing over the decade. Even the financial crisis in 2007-09 and general economy downturn 2013-16 had negligible effect on owner earnings... of course the stock price suffered but those years were the best for value hunters.   If I am not mistaken, HKLand has an impressive accumulation of ~US$2 per share of owner earnings over the past 10 years. Has that been reflected in the stock price? I would think so, but stock market is irrational anyway. In short, if your investment style fits family business model where the owners aim to grow the wealth for future generations with little regard to the stock price and dividend distribution, this is a good counter to hold on to... until the day the business becomes stagnant or shrinks (or if over-excited investors decide to push the price way way way beyond its intrinsic value lol). Another company that is getting more boring in that sense is Capitaland (relying on growing the wealth and focusing on recurring income). Some of you might want to take a look.

 

Revaluation gain need not benefit the company by divestment. It increase the net asset value (from $1m to $2m let say) with benefit as followings:

1. Increase rental:
For an investment property, the fair value will get by
(a) market price &
(b) NRV of future rental 

We can expect a property that worth $2m to rent much more than a property that worth $1m 5 years ago. If (a) market price is much higher than (b) NRV of future rental, the management should propose to sell it.

2. Lower finance cost
The company can always refinance its property. 5 years ago my property worth $1m and borrow at 3% interest rate. Now, my property worth $10m, I can either:
(a) Borrow $1m at lower interest 2%
(b) Borrow $2m at 3%, use surplus $1 to buy another property.

As for the dividend, I think is time for management to revise, what i ask for is reasonable.
If they dont care investor relations (they dont need fund for public), just delist it.

Hippocrates      ( Date: 27-Oct-2017 18:04) Posted: Revaluation gain of the property is irrelevant unless it is divested. You could have a HDB unit that is revaluated from 200k to 800k years for many consecutive years due to overall appreciation of housing price, but that is a totally useless gain unless you are downgrading it or move to a less ideal location. I can assure you that active recycling of property is definitely not the core business model of HKLand, especially not with their investment properties. They have a property development arm that build and dispose, but the bulk of their income is still coming from the rental of investment properties that the owners have no intention of selling. Maybe I have missed the part on its dividend policy, but given that HKLand is 50% owned by Jardine Matheson, it is still Keswick family that has a say of any change, not minority shareholders unfortunately.   calvinlooi      ( Date: 27-Oct-2017 17:42) Posted: Not matter how u dont want to divest， there are occasions to recycle investment. Sell and to buy property in better grow position. There have been huge revaluation gain on properties for 3 consecutive years. Dont see it as one off gain anymore. No matter management divest or not, they had proven their ability to spot property at good location. Current dividend policy is also irrelevant. If it is requested to change, it will.

 

That' s nice. I certainly won' t reject an increase in dividend.... will thank you for that if you succeed in influencing the management.

calvinlooi      ( Date: 27-Oct-2017 17:58) Posted: All investors have different objectives. I invest this company for two reason: 1. Invest in property value 2. Invest in USD (I think it is low enough) And I got a time frame for this, I will invest this for one year: 1. Those hold for long term, I may not see as long as u did. 2. Those hold for speculation, I did not sell when high (before dividend) and buy back later. Should there are chances for me to attend next AGM, i will request increase dividend. It does not fit for current earnings. I believe the return after one year should be good enough for me to make a one mth trip. That' s all I hope for.

 

Revaluation gain of the property is irrelevant unless it is divested. You could have a HDB unit that is revaluated from 200k to 800k years for many consecutive years due to overall appreciation of housing price, but that is a totally useless gain unless you are downgrading it or move to a less ideal location.

I can assure you that active recycling of property is definitely not the core business model of HKLand, especially not with their investment properties. They have a property development arm that build and dispose, but the bulk of their income is still coming from the rental of investment properties that the owners have no intention of selling.

Maybe I have missed the part on its dividend policy, but given that HKLand is 50% owned by Jardine Matheson, it is still Keswick family that has a say of any change, not minority shareholders unfortunately.

 

calvinlooi      ( Date: 27-Oct-2017 17:42) Posted: Not matter how u dont want to divest， there are occasions to recycle investment. Sell and to buy property in better grow position. There have been huge revaluation gain on properties for 3 consecutive years. Dont see it as one off gain anymore. No matter management divest or not, they had proven their ability to spot property at good location. Current dividend policy is also irrelevant. If it is requested to change, it will.

 

All investors have different objectives.

I invest this company for two reason:
1. Invest in property value
2. Invest in USD (I think it is low enough)

And I got a time frame for this, I will invest this for one year:
1. Those hold for long term, I may not see as long as u did.
2. Those hold for speculation, I did not sell when high (before dividend) and buy back later.

Should there are chances for me to attend next AGM, i will request increase dividend. It does not fit for current earnings.

I believe the return after one year should be good enough for me to make a one mth trip. That' s all I hope for.