Riverstone    Last:0.885    -0.01

RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LIMITED

DBS Vickers just re-rated Riverstone by increasing their valuation to 20x blended FY16/17 PE (from 18x) and increased TP to S$2.83 on Monday.

Greatman      ( Date: 06-Jan-2016 23:40) Posted: my avg short price 2.40... they are squeezing shorts this few days  Greatman      ( Date: 19-Nov-2015 23:41) Posted: In months to come, big players will short first, then ask their analyst issue " Hold" call due to falling ringgit and shrinking data. Followed by " Sell" call when they want to cover nett shorts

 

my avg short price 2.40... they are squeezing shorts this few days 

Greatman      ( Date: 19-Nov-2015 23:41) Posted: In months to come, big players will short first, then ask their analyst issue " Hold" call due to falling ringgit and shrinking data. Followed by " Sell" call when they want to cover nett shorts

 

OCBC won' t crash.  Stone can get crush cos apparently a lot of syndicate play one.  Spore so many stocks PE much much lower, div yield much higher n trading < benchmark.  Why no interest.  Maybe cos no syndicate play?    Why bet on high risk stock.  What if ringgit change direction?  What if rubber px reverse (which likelihood seems reasonably high say over next 12 - 18 mths).  What if glove demand drops (maybe this two yrs cld epidemics like Ebola contribute towards higher demand)?    What if another poison-pen story like Silvertake surfaces out of the blues? 

nngeeh      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 14:30) Posted: If you do a comparison ... OCBC is trading almost at the NAV whereas Riverstone is trading at 6x NAV. OCBC is giving consistently around 4% whereas Riverstone is giving less than 3%. In terms of capital gain ... i trust OCBC has the potential to reach back $10+, and i trust OCBC to be giving dividend consistently vs Riverstone. If you buy OCBC (vs Riverstone) .... even if the market crashes.... i believe OCBC will still bounce back to its current level. Can you really sure Riverstone can go back to it' s currently level if the price crashed back to maybe 2x NAV? n3wbie      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 11:13) Posted: You are right in the opportunity cost aspect as the downside outweighs the upside on the counter. Dont think many brokerages have scrip to borrow for short-sell though.

 

If you do a comparison ... OCBC is trading almost at the NAV whereas Riverstone is trading at 6x NAV. OCBC is giving consistently around 4% whereas Riverstone is giving less than 3%.

In terms of capital gain ... i trust OCBC has the potential to reach back $10+, and i trust OCBC to be giving dividend consistently vs Riverstone. If you buy OCBC (vs Riverstone) .... even if the market crashes.... i believe OCBC will still bounce back to its current level. Can you really sure Riverstone can go back to it' s currently level if the price crashed back to maybe 2x NAV?

n3wbie      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 11:13) Posted: You are right in the opportunity cost aspect as the downside outweighs the upside on the counter. Dont think many brokerages have scrip to borrow for short-sell though. nngeeh      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 10:01) Posted: The scary part is that SGX is a shortist haven (I read somewhere that SGX is the second worst after greece in terms of performance this year). Any slight bad news, or BB remove support .... the share price will go south drastically as seen in other share. Why take a risk on an expensive stock with low yield when there are other blue chips that give better yield, more resilient and with better capital gain potential than to risk it with this share that is getting close to 6x NAV?

 

You are right in the opportunity cost aspect as the downside outweighs the upside on the counter. Dont think many brokerages have scrip to borrow for short-sell though.

nngeeh      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 10:01) Posted: The scary part is that SGX is a shortist haven (I read somewhere that SGX is the second worst after greece in terms of performance this year). Any slight bad news, or BB remove support .... the share price will go south drastically as seen in other share. Why take a risk on an expensive stock with low yield when there are other blue chips that give better yield, more resilient and with better capital gain potential than to risk it with this share that is getting close to 6x NAV? n3wbie      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 09:24) Posted: From a valuation perspective, I dont think it really makes sense to benchmark a growth company (particularly manufacturing company) to its NAV. PE and EV/EBITDA or even metrics involving the company' s ability to generate FCF are more relevant indicators. One other reason why it is trading at a higher multiple (PB terms) is due to the fact that it is listed in SG (traded in SGD) while its reporting currency is in MYR, therefore the assets are also denominated in MYR which has seen quite a significant depreciation since the start of 2015. It is also worth noting that some of Riverstone' s peers such as Hartalega and Kossan are trading at even higher valuations. From a top-down approach, the gloves manufacturing sector is well favoured by the market - cheap raw material prices, favourable USD/MYR, expansion plans to improve EPS which are supported by increased global demand.  Just my own humble opinion.

 

The scary part is that SGX is a shortist haven (I read somewhere that SGX is the second worst after greece in terms of performance this year). Any slight bad news, or BB remove support .... the share price will go south drastically as seen in other share.

Why take a risk on an expensive stock with low yield when there are other blue chips that give better yield, more resilient and with better capital gain potential than to risk it with this share that is getting close to 6x NAV?

n3wbie      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 09:24) Posted: From a valuation perspective, I dont think it really makes sense to benchmark a growth company (particularly manufacturing company) to its NAV. PE and EV/EBITDA or even metrics involving the company' s ability to generate FCF are more relevant indicators. One other reason why it is trading at a higher multiple (PB terms) is due to the fact that it is listed in SG (traded in SGD) while its reporting currency is in MYR, therefore the assets are also denominated in MYR which has seen quite a significant depreciation since the start of 2015. It is also worth noting that some of Riverstone' s peers such as Hartalega and Kossan are trading at even higher valuations. From a top-down approach, the gloves manufacturing sector is well favoured by the market - cheap raw material prices, favourable USD/MYR, expansion plans to improve EPS which are supported by increased global demand.  Just my own humble opinion.     nngeeh      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 08:50) Posted: BB is trying to use the bonus as a reason to push up the share price. The higher the price, the P/B is higher. If you buy now, you are paying almost close to 6x the NAV. Don' t fall for their trap. Bonus doesn' t change the NAV .... you will still be paying for an expensive stock that possible to collapse big time. Imagine if the price fall back from 6x to 1x NAV !!!!!

 

From a valuation perspective, I dont think it really makes sense to benchmark a growth company (particularly manufacturing company) to its NAV. PE and EV/EBITDA or even metrics involving the company' s ability to generate FCF are more relevant indicators.

One other reason why it is trading at a higher multiple (PB terms) is due to the fact that it is listed in SG (traded in SGD) while its reporting currency is in MYR, therefore the assets are also denominated in MYR which has seen quite a significant depreciation since the start of 2015.

It is also worth noting that some of Riverstone' s peers such as Hartalega and Kossan are trading at even higher valuations. From a top-down approach, the gloves manufacturing sector is well favoured by the market - cheap raw material prices, favourable USD/MYR, expansion plans to improve EPS which are supported by increased global demand. 

Just my own humble opinion.

 

 

nngeeh      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 08:50) Posted: BB is trying to use the bonus as a reason to push up the share price. The higher the price, the P/B is higher. If you buy now, you are paying almost close to 6x the NAV. Don' t fall for their trap. Bonus doesn' t change the NAV .... you will still be paying for an expensive stock that possible to collapse big time. Imagine if the price fall back from 6x to 1x NAV !!!!! nngeeh      ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 15:59) Posted: It' s almost hitting $2.40. It' s proposing to give a bonus share 1 for 1. However, this doesnt change the fact that this is a super expensive stock of    NAV more than  5x, PE more than  20. Be careful.

 

Maybe ice will melt after xb.  Then got another show to watch.  Stay tuned. 

nngeeh      ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 08:50) Posted: BB is trying to use the bonus as a reason to push up the share price. The higher the price, the P/B is higher. If you buy now, you are paying almost close to 6x the NAV. Don' t fall for their trap. Bonus doesn' t change the NAV .... you will still be paying for an expensive stock that possible to collapse big time. Imagine if the price fall back from 6x to 1x NAV !!!!! nngeeh      ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 15:59) Posted: It' s almost hitting $2.40. It' s proposing to give a bonus share 1 for 1. However, this doesnt change the fact that this is a super expensive stock of    NAV more than  5x, PE more than  20. Be careful.

 

BB is trying to use the bonus as a reason to push up the share price.

The higher the price, the P/B is higher. If you buy now, you are paying almost close to 6x the NAV. Don' t fall for their trap. Bonus doesn' t change the NAV .... you will still be paying for an expensive stock that possible to collapse big time. Imagine if the price fall back from 6x to 1x NAV !!!!!

nngeeh      ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 15:59) Posted: It' s almost hitting $2.40. It' s proposing to give a bonus share 1 for 1. However, this doesnt change the fact that this is a super expensive stock of    NAV more than  5x, PE more than  20. Be careful.

 

It' s almost hitting $2.40.

It' s proposing to give a bonus share 1 for 1. However, this doesnt change the fact that this is a super expensive stock of    NAV more than  5x, PE more than  20. Be careful.

 

Malaysian coy, Malaysian bokerage ... There u have it .....

n3wbie      ( Date: 11-Dec-2015 00:46) Posted: I believe it is a case of profit-taking that took place over the last two weeks, had declined some 20% from its peak of $2.60. Maybank released a very positive report on its peer Top Glove ytd and the counter continues to set new highs. Given Riverstone' s higher margins, no reason why the counter should not follow the Malaysian glove manufacturers to trend higher. The sector in general continues to benefit from favourable USD/MYR, low raw material prices and strong growth due to uptick in demand globally. Good chance to accumulate during the recent sell-off.

 

I believe it is a case of profit-taking that took place over the last two weeks, had declined some 20% from its peak of $2.60. Maybank released a very positive report on its peer Top Glove ytd and the counter continues to set new highs. Given Riverstone' s higher margins, no reason why the counter should not follow the Malaysian glove manufacturers to trend higher.

The sector in general continues to benefit from favourable USD/MYR, low raw material prices and strong growth due to uptick in demand globally. Good chance to accumulate during the recent sell-off.

 

 

Following the path of other Malaysian stocks listed here? 

bishan22      ( Date: 09-Dec-2015 13:46) Posted: Start of down trend??? bishan22      ( Date: 09-Dec-2015 10:40) Posted: Very volatile today. Watch the next support level......

 

Start of down trend???

bishan22      ( Date: 09-Dec-2015 10:40) Posted: Very volatile today. Watch the next support level......

 

Very volatile today. Watch the next support level......

 

due to the low public float, it is hard to borrow shares to short. CFDs in some of the bigger brokerages also dont offer.

nngeeh      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:06) Posted: How to borrow script to short? nngeeh      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:03) Posted: Wow ... it' s moving north again. From the SGX, the Price/NAV is almost 5.7x. Super expensive stock.

 

U bet, super ex indeed.  P/B > 5, PE> 20, div yield < 3%.  Compared to this Lian Beng P/B< 0.6, PE< 3, div yield abt 4%.  Other than LB, there are many other stocks to consider too.  Why need to keep chasing this one.  I always think next to schips, perhaps we may be well advised to be more cautious with stocks owned/majority controlled by our friends up north.  Apart from ABL, look at Silvertake, APAC, Pac Andes, CPG ......

nngeeh      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:03) Posted: Wow ... it' s moving north again. From the SGX, the Price/NAV is almost 5.7x. Super expensive stock. Qanghoo      ( Date: 28-Nov-2015 10:17) Posted: Recently, the px hit 2.50+ right?  Then came down.  Then up again.  From past cases, it seems to me that it' s when px experienced a phenomenal extended surge n then  hit volatility like this that trouble might start.  Watch it!!!!

 

How to borrow script to short?

nngeeh      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:03) Posted: Wow ... it' s moving north again. From the SGX, the Price/NAV is almost 5.7x. Super expensive stock. Qanghoo      ( Date: 28-Nov-2015 10:17) Posted: Recently, the px hit 2.50+ right?  Then came down.  Then up again.  From past cases, it seems to me that it' s when px experienced a phenomenal extended surge n then  hit volatility like this that trouble might start.  Watch it!!!!

 

Wow ... it' s moving north again. From the SGX, the Price/NAV is almost 5.7x. Super expensive stock.

Qanghoo      ( Date: 28-Nov-2015 10:17) Posted: Recently, the px hit 2.50+ right?  Then came down.  Then up again.  From past cases, it seems to me that it' s when px experienced a phenomenal extended surge n then  hit volatility like this that trouble might start.  Watch it!!!! Qanghoo      ( Date: 28-Nov-2015 10:12) Posted: Somehow I' m a bit wary abt the way the px of some coys majority-owned by our neighbours run up.  Remember ABL, then SA .... n  now CFG .....?  What' s next, I wonder?  No harm trading with care.  Why keep chasing when px has skyrocketed so much n (in my view) perhaps beyond what fundamentals justify?  There are so many other sound coys to consider.  Be careful.

 

Recently, the px hit 2.50+ right?  Then came down.  Then up again.  From past cases, it seems to me that it' s when px experienced a phenomenal extended surge n then  hit volatility like this that trouble might start.  Watch it!!!!

Qanghoo      ( Date: 28-Nov-2015 10:12) Posted: Somehow I' m a bit wary abt the way the px of some coys majority-owned by our neighbours run up.  Remember ABL, then SA .... n  now CFG .....?  What' s next, I wonder?  No harm trading with care.  Why keep chasing when px has skyrocketed so much n (in my view) perhaps beyond what fundamentals justify?  There are so many other sound coys to consider.  Be careful.