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How much will the ASP for gloves go up and how much profit does that translate to?
The glove market price was previously USD 29 per box @ 1000 pieces. How much has market price actually increased? To be fair all it really took was bit of time on google to identify this. Average retail price direct to consumer works out to be USD 100-150 per box from what I can gather at Amazon.
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=nitrile+gloves& ref=nb_sb_noss_2
That works out to be an increase of 4 fold! Of course let&rsquo s not assume that our glove manufacturers are going to be selling gloves at these prices. But we take a more conservative approach that there is a significant possibility that our glove manufacturers have a very distinct and high chance that they are able to increase their prices up 50% from USD 29 per box &ndash USD 45 per box. It still leaves existing resellers a large margin and keeps them happy to boot! When we did a little bit of background research just at the B2B level we found from Alibaba that majority of the disposable nitrile gloves are selling their gloves at USD 150 per 1000 pieces.
Initially when I first read that the ASP for gloves would increase 45% in an analyst report for Top Glove I was shocked! In retrospect a 45% increase is extremely mild! It is nowhere near what the price has increased over the past few months.
45% increase in ASP for gloves would translate to a direct increase in profits by 45% off of previous years revenue! However, looking at the market conditions and just how much the market price has moved I really don&rsquo t feel it difficult for a glove manufacturer to raise prices from USD 25 &ndash USD 50 while still providing a good enough margin for their distributors. That could potentially mean an increase of profit of 50% off of revenue!
Again this is different for OBM and OEM manufacturers. OEM Manufacturers will have to share the increase in price with their business partners and OBM manufacturers will reap their investments into their distribution network. This again highlights key profits for Top Glove, Supermax (90% own brand), UG (estimated 70% own brand) and also Riverstone (60% of all sales are from their own brand).
I would strongly suggest we look out for OBM manufacturers who have not really moved in the market yet such as UG and riverstone!
DR TEE 1st Jun 2020
Riverstone (SGX: AP4) &ndash Singapore Giant Glove Stock
Among 5 giant glove stocks, Riverstone is the smallest player but it has its niche market. Riverstone manufactures cleanroom glove (eg. hard disk drive and semiconductor) and healthcare gloves. Founder and major shareholder is Wong Teek Son (about 50% ownership), also the No 44 richest person in Malaysia (Forbes&rsquo List), supported mainly by rising share prices over the past decade (share price goes up nearly 20 times since IPO till now).
Riverstone is a Malaysia company but stock is listed in Singapore, therefore the share price potential is also partially affected by Singapore stock market. Choice of stock exchange for listing does not affect the company fundamental (same share ownership) but due to different characteristic of global investors in each stock exchange (eg. US, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia), etc, would make a big difference in share prices which is the ultimate goal for a company to be listed. As a result, certain stock exchange is more popular of IPO stocks but may not be fundamentally strong. So, a stock investor has to consider a stock or even stock exchange, aligning with own personality and strategy, either on long term investing or short term trading.
Riverstone is a strong growth stock (supported by growing businesses with strong cash flow), a small player with potential to expand further with more leveraging if needed (current debt level is very low). A giant stock is not determined by its business size, if Riverstone could remain highly profitable within its niche market (also a form of economic moat), it can be a good stock investment.
Due to high optimism in share price, Riverstone may be considered as a mid-fielder stock (aiming for high capital gains with little dividend yield as bonus). It may also be considered for very short term momentum trading despite share price is speculated (Buy High Sell Higher strategy).
$2.4 possible?
The be3t is yet to be.
spec008 ( Date: 03-Jun-2020 16:17) Posted:
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Hmm 2.2 road block now....👽
Nothing goes up forever... healthy correction...shake out weak players so more can join the race👍
aniki19 ( Date: 03-Jun-2020 15:40) Posted:
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perhaps all rubber companies are going through some price correction?
wa dn 246 219 delta 27
wb up 219 ?236 delta 16 up 61.8%
px hit 228 and uturn
wc dn 228 ?201
px hit 192
now mini ew 192 221 w2?
w1 29
w2 18 tgt 203
w3
w4
w5
wb up 219 ?236 delta 16 up 61.8%
px hit 228 and uturn
wc dn 228 ?201
px hit 192
now mini ew 192 221 w2?
w1 29
w2 18 tgt 203
w3
w4
w5
SgYuan ( Date: 03-Jun-2020 08:40) Posted:
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Then i would say buy on fear, if you feel px already price in inanticipation of news..i prefer not to use such statements. As long as the company is delivering results and still in the business during this time. We should look at the medium term as it can continue to generate good revenue for the company and for shareholders.
Agreed however the stock market has become a casino of sorts...this lockdown has highlighted to many many new players that share market is the way to go my wife who has never touched shares in her life past few weeks has started playing shares...a lot of my colleagues who never look at share before now all become share guru... singapore pools closed...casino closed... soccer gambling no more... cannot go genting malaysia to gamble....all Work from home and PLAY SHARES from home...this alone i believe will be a catalyst to move the market forward ..just my personal view👍 👍 👍 🍷
ferarri79 ( Date: 03-Jun-2020 14:53) Posted:
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Prepare for Xmas!
Key pointers from AGM today:
1) Dividend of 5.85 RM sen to be released on 9th June 2020
2) ASP has increased in 2Q2020(which is roughly known), group didn' t mention much on the ASP moving forward into 3Q and 4Q2020.
3) Cleanroom gloves comprises of about 60% of their total revenue, earning 3x profit margin compared to healthcare gloves.
4) Quantity of gloves sold:
4Q2019 : 2.1billion
1Q2020 : 2.3billion
2Q2020 : 2.35billion
3Q2020 : 2.5billion (Expected, and group feels optimistic about it)
Didn' t release any expectations for 4Q2020
5) Given some concerns on semiconductor industry with trade war and how it can negatively affect demand for cleanroom gloves, the group still feels confident on their product to be sold - since they still seeing a 10% increase in demand for cleanroom gloves q-o-q. Further, the group mentioned they will not be affected by the impending US-China trade war.
6) Even in post circuit breakers/MCO/lockdowns, there is huge awareness for hygiene and social distancing in a covid era. This awareness and trend for consumers will still result in good growth for gloves as a PPE, and global sales volume will be expected to increase 8-10% in general.
7) Currently running on 95% operational capacity, their operations are still running efficiently, but expansion plans put to a halt as of now since vendors aren' t allowed to operate during the MCO period.
8) Subjected to favourable conditions, the group is optimistic for favourable performance in FY2020. Net profit margins will increase further from what was seen in 1Q2020.
9) Of course, such growth is also subjected to certain kinds of risk. The group has identified risks pertaining US-dollar fluctuations/volatility, along with competition from other glove manufacturers. However, they reiterated strong moats that Riverstone will hold on to like tight corporate/customer relations, constant up-scaling and improving production efficiency/process. etc
Overall, most of the things mentioned above can be roughly expected already, but it is nice to hear out their optimism, especially with them ensuring point number 7 as stated above. Most probably for me, will be holding the remaining of my shares till later on in 2020, which i have already sold half of my shares.
Moving forward, going in or not, its totally up to each individual investor to dyodd and exercise caution. This is not a buy/sell call, just updating some key points that was mentioned during AGM so its a neat summary for those that did not attend.
Key pointers from AGM today:
1) Dividend of 5.85 RM sen to be released on 9th June 2020
2) ASP has increased in 2Q2020(which is roughly known), group didn' t mention much on the ASP moving forward into 3Q and 4Q2020.
3) Cleanroom gloves comprises of about 60% of their total revenue, earning 3x profit margin compared to healthcare gloves.
4) Quantity of gloves sold:
4Q2019 : 2.1billion
1Q2020 : 2.3billion
2Q2020 : 2.35billion
3Q2020 : 2.5billion (Expected, and group feels optimistic about it)
Didn' t release any expectations for 4Q2020
5) Given some concerns on semiconductor industry with trade war and how it can negatively affect demand for cleanroom gloves, the group still feels confident on their product to be sold - since they still seeing a 10% increase in demand for cleanroom gloves q-o-q. Further, the group mentioned they will not be affected by the impending US-China trade war.
6) Even in post circuit breakers/MCO/lockdowns, there is huge awareness for hygiene and social distancing in a covid era. This awareness and trend for consumers will still result in good growth for gloves as a PPE, and global sales volume will be expected to increase 8-10% in general.
7) Currently running on 95% operational capacity, their operations are still running efficiently, but expansion plans put to a halt as of now since vendors aren' t allowed to operate during the MCO period.
8) Subjected to favourable conditions, the group is optimistic for favourable performance in FY2020. Net profit margins will increase further from what was seen in 1Q2020.
9) Of course, such growth is also subjected to certain kinds of risk. The group has identified risks pertaining US-dollar fluctuations/volatility, along with competition from other glove manufacturers. However, they reiterated strong moats that Riverstone will hold on to like tight corporate/customer relations, constant up-scaling and improving production efficiency/process. etc
Overall, most of the things mentioned above can be roughly expected already, but it is nice to hear out their optimism, especially with them ensuring point number 7 as stated above. Most probably for me, will be holding the remaining of my shares till later on in 2020, which i have already sold half of my shares.
Moving forward, going in or not, its totally up to each individual investor to dyodd and exercise caution. This is not a buy/sell call, just updating some key points that was mentioned during AGM so its a neat summary for those that did not attend.
do know the market is forward looking, the price spike more or less might have taken into account the upcoming quarters of good revenue due to covid. sell on news
Just imagine the earnings for FY 2020 and next...you all just imagine the share px then
So many kan cheong spiders in the market... steady steady have faith in the company and their business outlook...HUAT to all believers👍 👍 👍
Riverstone Holdings: Positive operating environment leading to higher ASP and margins
DBS Group Research3 Jun 2020
Key summary points
Orderbook is fully locked in and any new demand can only be fulfilled next year, likely in January or February, as the Phase 6 expansion to increase production capacity by 1.4bn (+15.6%) to 10.4bn pieces of gloves per annum is expected to be completed by end of this year. Currently, two out of seven lines are already in production. Moving beyond Phase 6, plans are already underway following the group& rsquo s acquisition of a 3.8-acre land bank in Taiping where Riverstone intends to construct its new facility and expand capacity further. Going forward, higher production capacity should help to drive revenue higher for the group.
Higher ASP, in line with market trend. Average selling price (ASP) is also on a rising trend, due to the strong demand and tight supply. The 10-20% increase in ASP is effective in May/June 2020 onwards. We would not rule out further increase in ASP in 2H20. Other players like Top Glove, Hartalega and Kossan Rubber are also raising their ASPs.
Margin improvement on higher ASP and lower raw material prices. Besides higher ASP, Riverstone is also benefitting from a lower raw material price environment. The price of butadiene, a key raw material used in the production of its nitrile-based gloves and accounts for c.50% of total costs, has shed 66% YTD. The price of butadiene, a by-product of oil, tends to move in tandem with oil prices. Prices of other raw materials, like nitrile, are also trending down, though not as much as butadiene. Hence, a higher ASP and lower raw material prices would lead to further margin improvement. In 1Q20, which did not benefit much from ASP increase, gross margin had already improved by 4.6ppts y-o-y to 24.0%. We expect further improvement in gross margin to 27.5% for FY20F.
Positive demand and supply dynamics. Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (MARGMA) has revised up its estimated export of gloves to c.220bn pieces in 2020, c.20% growth from 2019, amid the current situation. Malaysia is the world& rsquo s largest rubber glove producer and contributes nearly 63% of global supply. The industry is in a tight supply situation, with almost all players running at full capacity.
Demand expected to be strong post COVID-19. Post the pandemic, we expect the demand for healthcare gloves to remain strong, as hygiene will still be a keen concern going forward. For the cleanroom segment, we continue to expect new technologies like 5G, Artificial Intelligence, and Internet of Things to drive demand for cleanroom gloves.
Revised earnings up for FY20F/FY21F by 30%/41%. We have raised earnings for FY20F/FY21F by 30%/41% on higher ASP and margins. The operating environment has been very favourable for glove manufacturers. The strong demand and tight supply have led to further increase in ASP while the lower raw material prices have further boosted margins. On the back of the higher earnings, our TP is revised up to S$3.09 (previously S$2.20), or PE of 28x (up from 26x, in line with the re-rating of peers) on FY20F earnings, which is at a 30% discount to peers.
DBS Group Research3 Jun 2020
Key summary points
- Running at full capacity orderbook fully locked in
- Margin improvement on higher ASP and lower raw material prices
- Demand expected to be strong post COVID-19
- Revised earnings up for FY20F/FY21F by 30%/41% reiterate BUY with higher TP of S$3.09
Orderbook is fully locked in and any new demand can only be fulfilled next year, likely in January or February, as the Phase 6 expansion to increase production capacity by 1.4bn (+15.6%) to 10.4bn pieces of gloves per annum is expected to be completed by end of this year. Currently, two out of seven lines are already in production. Moving beyond Phase 6, plans are already underway following the group& rsquo s acquisition of a 3.8-acre land bank in Taiping where Riverstone intends to construct its new facility and expand capacity further. Going forward, higher production capacity should help to drive revenue higher for the group.
Higher ASP, in line with market trend. Average selling price (ASP) is also on a rising trend, due to the strong demand and tight supply. The 10-20% increase in ASP is effective in May/June 2020 onwards. We would not rule out further increase in ASP in 2H20. Other players like Top Glove, Hartalega and Kossan Rubber are also raising their ASPs.
Margin improvement on higher ASP and lower raw material prices. Besides higher ASP, Riverstone is also benefitting from a lower raw material price environment. The price of butadiene, a key raw material used in the production of its nitrile-based gloves and accounts for c.50% of total costs, has shed 66% YTD. The price of butadiene, a by-product of oil, tends to move in tandem with oil prices. Prices of other raw materials, like nitrile, are also trending down, though not as much as butadiene. Hence, a higher ASP and lower raw material prices would lead to further margin improvement. In 1Q20, which did not benefit much from ASP increase, gross margin had already improved by 4.6ppts y-o-y to 24.0%. We expect further improvement in gross margin to 27.5% for FY20F.
Positive demand and supply dynamics. Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (MARGMA) has revised up its estimated export of gloves to c.220bn pieces in 2020, c.20% growth from 2019, amid the current situation. Malaysia is the world& rsquo s largest rubber glove producer and contributes nearly 63% of global supply. The industry is in a tight supply situation, with almost all players running at full capacity.
Demand expected to be strong post COVID-19. Post the pandemic, we expect the demand for healthcare gloves to remain strong, as hygiene will still be a keen concern going forward. For the cleanroom segment, we continue to expect new technologies like 5G, Artificial Intelligence, and Internet of Things to drive demand for cleanroom gloves.
Revised earnings up for FY20F/FY21F by 30%/41%. We have raised earnings for FY20F/FY21F by 30%/41% on higher ASP and margins. The operating environment has been very favourable for glove manufacturers. The strong demand and tight supply have led to further increase in ASP while the lower raw material prices have further boosted margins. On the back of the higher earnings, our TP is revised up to S$3.09 (previously S$2.20), or PE of 28x (up from 26x, in line with the re-rating of peers) on FY20F earnings, which is at a 30% discount to peers.
CEO says ASP increase by 10% n adding new lines in Q3 n Q4
Positive AGM and outlook. Huat ar!
Investors have switched interest from healthcare stocks to ex- MSCI stocks.
gonecase, dont touch better
what happened ?!