AEM SGD    Last:9.9    -0.19

Aem

If anything the 3Q results are better than might have been expected given the guidance at the 1H results - in particular PBT (ex exceptional) in 3Q was almost the same as 1Q and 2Q combined. On the revenue side 3Q was higher than the S$460-490m FY guidance would have suggested on a linear basis - the fact this guidance did not change in 3Q suggests 4Q revenue will be much lower than 3Q.

Share price recovery post initial drop at 1H results reflected markets betting on the possibility of the company outperforming its own guidance. Unfortunately this didn' t happen.

 

 

why is the CEO still there with such dissapointing results and lousy share performance? 

Battle123      ( Date: 09-Nov-2023 22:23) Posted: Terrible result, let's see where the supports

 

abrdn plc lost more $

jlinus      ( Date: 07-Nov-2023 16:08) Posted: They know something which we don't know. SSH are not dumb. tongphlp      ( Date: 31-Oct-2023 14:57) Posted: abrdn plc is losing $...they must be cursing themselves..

 

Buy 3.31 from KGI
sell at 3.38 to KGI also ?????

 

recovering fast

 

9M23 took a hit from arbitration expenses recovery likely deferred till late 2024

9M23 revenue of S$387.0m (-48.2% yoy), largely in line with expectations
9M23 earnings of S$3.5m (-96.9% yoy), below our estimates even after accounting for one-off arbitration expenses of S$26.7m
Worst is likely over, but recovery could be delayed till late 2024

Our Thoughts

Worst is likely over, but recovery could be delayed till late 2024. Macros continue to be uncertain and overall industry capex in 2024 is likely to stay conservative (-0.1%) &ndash logic related capex (where AEM&rsquo s key customer is) will be down slightly (-3.4% yoy) whereas memory related capex will rebound (+12.4% yoy). Consensus estimates for Intel are not too far from the general narrative, with capex set to fall 6.7% yoy in 2023 and stay flattish at +1.0% yoy in 2024. Our views are largely congruent with AEMs expectations of a protracted period of lower tester utilisation rates which pushes out capex spend into late 2024. Nonetheless, Intels capex, while key, is not the only consideration. AEM is also driven by product cycles such as the ramp of new generation equipment. As yet, we do not expect new generation equipment ramp for the key customer in the next two years as capability requirements for the next two to three years has been met. Meanwhile, engagements with new customers continue to progress with ramps expected in 2H24.   

We currently have a HOLD call with TP S$3.11, more updates to come after the analyst briefing on 10 November

- Source: DBS

 

Warn you liao ..

bishan22      ( Date: 07-Nov-2023 13:16) Posted: Lifeless...be careful.

 

 

Terrible result, let's see where the supports

 

AEM reports revenue of S$387M and profit before tax, excluding exceptional items, of S$43M for 9M2023

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/MXCXSVR6MA346KQD/077d6a2c4cba50cf8734ae13ca19daee371daafd14d7266d454df7c63d646977

 

shhh......hush hush

jlinus      ( Date: 07-Nov-2023 16:08) Posted: They know something which we don't know. SSH are not dumb. tongphlp      ( Date: 31-Oct-2023 14:57) Posted: abrdn plc is losing $...they must be cursing themselves..

 

They know something which we don't know. SSH are not dumb.

tongphlp      ( Date: 31-Oct-2023 14:57) Posted: abrdn plc is losing $...they must be cursing themselves... Joelton      ( Date: 30-Oct-2023 12:53) Posted: AEM Holdings On Oct 18, AEM Holdings substantial shareholder abrdn plc increased its deemed interest back above the 9 per cent threshold with 273,000 shares acquired at S$3.518 per share.   This followed abrdn plc&rsquo s deemed substantial shareholding falling below the 9 per cent threshold on Jul 3.   Outside of the STI constituents, AEM Holdings has been the third most traded Singapore-listed company by trading turnover in the 2023 year through to Oct 26, after ComfortDelGro Corporation and UMS Holdings.   AEM Holdings has also booked S$39.7 million of net institutional inflow over the 43 weeks.     With a global presence across Asia, Europe, and the United States, AEM Holdings provides comprehensive semiconductor and electronics test solutions.   Back in August, the group provided FY23 (ended Dec 30) revenue guidance of S$460 million to S$490 million on the back of reduced test capital equipment utilisation levels across the industry and delays in current customer device release schedules.   This compares to respective FY22, FY21, FY20 and FY19 revenues of S$870 million, S$565 million, S$519 million and S$323 million.   The group also noted that while inventory digestion is expected to continue through 2023, it believes it is well-positioned to take advantage of the semiconductor volume growth that is expected to return to the semiconductor industry in 2024.   AEM Holdings maintained in August that its Test 2.0 paradigm is at the forefront of test solutions for next-generation advanced logic devices, including high-performance compute, given the group&rsquo s unmatched capability in thermal and Device Under Test power.   In responses to questions prior to the FY22 AGM, AEM Holdings had noted that its Test 2.0 paradigm enables a device manufacturer to define test flows that break away from the limitations of the standard Test 1.0, thus delivering the required test coverage at a significantly lower cost of test.   It added that anecdotal evidence of the cost of test savings has been conservatively anywhere from 30 per cent to 50 per cent at high volume.   AEM Holdings maintained in August that customer traction for the Test 2.0 solutions continues to grow with confirmed initial orders from an additional new leading application processor customer, and an expansion of AEM&rsquo s engagement with a previously announced memory customer.

 

Lifeless...be careful.

 

abrdn plc is losing $...they must be cursing themselves...

Joelton      ( Date: 30-Oct-2023 12:53) Posted: AEM Holdings On Oct 18, AEM Holdings substantial shareholder abrdn plc increased its deemed interest back above the 9 per cent threshold with 273,000 shares acquired at S$3.518 per share.   This followed abrdn plc&rsquo s deemed substantial shareholding falling below the 9 per cent threshold on Jul 3.   Outside of the STI constituents, AEM Holdings has been the third most traded Singapore-listed company by trading turnover in the 2023 year through to Oct 26, after ComfortDelGro Corporation and UMS Holdings.   AEM Holdings has also booked S$39.7 million of net institutional inflow over the 43 weeks.     With a global presence across Asia, Europe, and the United States, AEM Holdings provides comprehensive semiconductor and electronics test solutions.   Back in August, the group provided FY23 (ended Dec 30) revenue guidance of S$460 million to S$490 million on the back of reduced test capital equipment utilisation levels across the industry and delays in current customer device release schedules.   This compares to respective FY22, FY21, FY20 and FY19 revenues of S$870 million, S$565 million, S$519 million and S$323 million.   The group also noted that while inventory digestion is expected to continue through 2023, it believes it is well-positioned to take advantage of the semiconductor volume growth that is expected to return to the semiconductor industry in 2024.   AEM Holdings maintained in August that its Test 2.0 paradigm is at the forefront of test solutions for next-generation advanced logic devices, including high-performance compute, given the group&rsquo s unmatched capability in thermal and Device Under Test power.   In responses to questions prior to the FY22 AGM, AEM Holdings had noted that its Test 2.0 paradigm enables a device manufacturer to define test flows that break away from the limitations of the standard Test 1.0, thus delivering the required test coverage at a significantly lower cost of test.   It added that anecdotal evidence of the cost of test savings has been conservatively anywhere from 30 per cent to 50 per cent at high volume.   AEM Holdings maintained in August that customer traction for the Test 2.0 solutions continues to grow with confirmed initial orders from an additional new leading application processor customer, and an expansion of AEM&rsquo s engagement with a previously announced memory customer.

 

the next jump on news should see it hitting 4...else, it should drop to 3.2 or lower

Joelton      ( Date: 30-Oct-2023 12:53) Posted: AEM Holdings On Oct 18, AEM Holdings substantial shareholder abrdn plc increased its deemed interest back above the 9 per cent threshold with 273,000 shares acquired at S$3.518 per share.   This followed abrdn plc&rsquo s deemed substantial shareholding falling below the 9 per cent threshold on Jul 3.   Outside of the STI constituents, AEM Holdings has been the third most traded Singapore-listed company by trading turnover in the 2023 year through to Oct 26, after ComfortDelGro Corporation and UMS Holdings.   AEM Holdings has also booked S$39.7 million of net institutional inflow over the 43 weeks.     With a global presence across Asia, Europe, and the United States, AEM Holdings provides comprehensive semiconductor and electronics test solutions.   Back in August, the group provided FY23 (ended Dec 30) revenue guidance of S$460 million to S$490 million on the back of reduced test capital equipment utilisation levels across the industry and delays in current customer device release schedules.   This compares to respective FY22, FY21, FY20 and FY19 revenues of S$870 million, S$565 million, S$519 million and S$323 million.   The group also noted that while inventory digestion is expected to continue through 2023, it believes it is well-positioned to take advantage of the semiconductor volume growth that is expected to return to the semiconductor industry in 2024.   AEM Holdings maintained in August that its Test 2.0 paradigm is at the forefront of test solutions for next-generation advanced logic devices, including high-performance compute, given the group&rsquo s unmatched capability in thermal and Device Under Test power.   In responses to questions prior to the FY22 AGM, AEM Holdings had noted that its Test 2.0 paradigm enables a device manufacturer to define test flows that break away from the limitations of the standard Test 1.0, thus delivering the required test coverage at a significantly lower cost of test.   It added that anecdotal evidence of the cost of test savings has been conservatively anywhere from 30 per cent to 50 per cent at high volume.   AEM Holdings maintained in August that customer traction for the Test 2.0 solutions continues to grow with confirmed initial orders from an additional new leading application processor customer, and an expansion of AEM&rsquo s engagement with a previously announced memory customer.

 

 

Vomit blood today....

Joelton      ( Date: 21-Jun-2023 10:03) Posted: AI hype rally overdone, UOBKH downgrades AEM to ' sell'   UOB Kay Hian analyst John Cheong has downgraded AEM Holdings AWX -0.26% to &ldquo sell&rdquo with an unchanged target price of $2.87, expecting the company&rsquo s near-term earnings to remain weak.   In his June 20 report, Cheong says that AEM&rsquo s one month share price rally of about 30% &mdash which was largely driven by increased interest in artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks &mdash is overdone.   In late May, chip giant Nvidia&rsquo s strong sales forecast caused a sharp share price rally among semiconductor-related stocks including AEM. Despite the possible longer-term benefits from the secular growth in the semiconductor sector on the back of increasing adoption of AI-related chips, the global semiconductor demand is expected to be weak in 2023.   Cheong notes that AI-related chips account for only a small share of about 3% of the total semiconductor sales, with other segments expected to contract in 2023. This will not be able to lift global semiconductor sales out of decline for this year.   Citing BCA Research&rsquo s June review of major semiconductor consuming sectors, there is a subdued picture for global semiconductor demand for two major segments. Devices &mdash such as mobile phones and tablets which account for about 40% of semiconductor sales &mdash are seeing sluggish consumer demand due to overconsumption in previous years.   Meanwhile, the semiconductor demand for automobiles, servers and industrial electronics &mdash which accounts for about 30% of the sales &mdash will experience less than 5% growth in 2023. This will not be enough to offset lower demand in the consumer electronic goods sector in the near term, Cheong highlights.   Even after cutting his FY2023 earnings estimates significantly after its 1QFY2023 ended March results, AEM&rsquo s first quarter earnings still forms only 20% of UOBKH&rsquo s full year earnings estimate.   &ldquo AEM&rsquo s 1QFY2023 earnings of $15.6 million were below our expectations. This was due to weak net margin, which fell 5.4 percentage points y-o-y to 10.2% in 1QFY2023, due to change in product mix as revenue contribution from the high margin consumables segment fell, and revenue from the services segment, which has lower margin, rising 53% y-o-y,&rdquo adds Cheong.   He further notes that AEM&rsquo s latest guidance in 1QFY2023 indicates an uncertain near-term outlook. The company has maintained its 2023 revenue guidance of $500 million, indicating that it may be revised up or down as second half visibility becomes clearer.   Moving forward, the chances that global semiconductor producers&rsquo stock prices will continue to rally through the second half of the year are low, Cheong points out. This is as the surge in AI chip demand only helps a few companies while the boom in smartphone chips benefitted a much larger pool of semiconductor players.