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| 05-Aug-2013 10:06 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Share investors should benefit from company's expansion if it can be done without pain. In this respect, CF borrowed money at about 10% interest rate where the return of asset is only about 5% and the latest dividend yield around 4% with historical dividend yield around 2%. Both the company and its investor, esp the small retail investors will suffer longer term if the company's real growth cannot reach escape velocity. Just another view. | ||||
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| 04-Aug-2013 20:48 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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There should be a contract already signed. the other parties can sue like what CF is suing one of Copeinca shareholders for refusing to sell his holding to CF.
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| 03-Aug-2013 17:44 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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did a net debt-ebitda ratio on most of the sg companies including the blue chips.. shock to find out that bulk (more than 50%) of the companies have debt ratio of over 4.0 which will normally sound alarms.. It is so easy to borrow money nowadays and many companies are " working slaves" for the banks. They can never be able to redeem their debts if the economy does not " fly" .. | ||||
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| 03-Aug-2013 15:12 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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dun bet on the 10 year cycle. Bernanke has changed the game plan. the cycle is now shorter. | ||||
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| 03-Aug-2013 12:37 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Be careful when picking up stocks during this difficult period when stock index is high and $ is easy to get. Many companies are now borrowing more than they can swallow and some are forever slaves to the borrowers esp when their profits are dwindling due to economy slow downs. Many companies hide their debts in balance sheets and keep pile of cash for reasons best known to them some even resort to cheat when they cannot hide which is often difficult to spot. On the surface, the companies appears to have low gearings with decent earnings but it is rotten underneath if one were to examine the balance sheet carefully. These companies may be good pick for contras if their momentum picks up for reason of speculation but definitely not a pick for medium and long term investment. Do be careful when picking up stocks esp for newbies..do not listen to what other says and do you own homework. |
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| 02-Aug-2013 08:20 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Thanks Blanchard for the article which was quite confusing http://www.nfr.ru/en/smi/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=12068 Think the above article was trying to say:- " 1) In late 2011, Ng family got $400 millions when company shared its 20% capital with the shareholders 2) In Feb to May 2012, the share price dropped 39% when the Russians started to act 3) Shareholders then raised questions but the company explained that it was in the small print of the 185-page prospectus of the bond issue that the company could not assure the Russians would not act 4) The company then offered to buy back the 20% shared capital at prevailing stock price which was 39% down since 2011. According to the article, the company earned 160 million 5) The rest of $ 1.20 billion was earned when the Russians spent about $1.0 billion to repurchase the assets from the foreign companies including those of China Fishery and Andes Pacific." Just not quite sure how the $ 1.2 billions all added up. |
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| 24-Jul-2013 22:09 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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The article is long it has a pinch of sarcastism. It said the long term investment is for company " to shake the label" at the risk of " borrowing a lot of money against its balance sheet, they ponied up even more money to get Copeinca at a record price”.
The Peruvian fishes are high valued products but " the anvhovy catch was disappointing in 2013" moreover, the Peruvian government was concerned and acted against overfishing. The deal is " a bit of desperation"
" China Fish should have acquired Copeinca in 2012 when its prices was low and CF was flush with cash with a half year bond" but it did not. " They waited until this year, when they were cash-strapped and forcefully conducted a rights issue when China Fishery’s share price was weak, and even upsized the bid for Copeinca"
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| 24-Jul-2013 12:04 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Used to have 10 carps. Rear them from 3 inches until they are about 22 inches long..initially on fish pallet but too expensive. then make own food with eggs, biscuits mixed with dry shrimps sometimes, just one hard boiled or fried eggs a day. They take normal white bread as well.. Just wanted to say there are alternative foods for aquaculture fishes.. | ||||
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| 23-Jul-2013 16:22 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Presently. aquaculture fish farming are threats but not much to resist fish imports from as far as · up to 22kg of wild-caught fish is needed to produce just 1kg of farmed tuna
· 4kg of wild-caught fish is needed to produce 1kg of farmed salmon
· up to 2kg of wild-caught fish is needed to produce 1kg of farmed marine shrimp
also, there are hosts of other problems such as space constraints, diseases etc.
http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/aquaculture/fish_feed/ If the ocean fish price are getting more expensive, it will only benefit these aquaculture fish farmers
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| 23-Jul-2013 07:12 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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It was not easy to control but it went back up again..hope Fish is greedy taking another bigger fish and Copeinca will come to its rescue. http://tinypic.com/r/xf5a3l/5 |
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| 22-Jul-2013 12:17 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Like your argument although I could taste different kinds but not btw ocean and farm seafish..
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| 21-Jul-2013 20:04 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Quite sure China Fish (CF) must have made its decision based on good ground and reasons. But is it really a valued purchase of another company in debt?
On 21 May, Marine Havest (MH), a Norwegian aquaculture farmer made an offer of USD1.7 biln to take over Cermaq, which is its Norwegian competitor The condition was for Cermaq to abandon the bid for Copeinca that Cermaq mooted sometime ago. They explained that Copeinca would become a debt burden. However, Cermaq ignored MH's offer and went ahead to bid for Copeinca on 28 May for USD$9.76 per share. By then, China Fish (CF) in Feb already offered a bid of USD$8.81 per share for Copeinca. When CF revised its off er again in June to USD$11.15, Cermaq had already withdrew its Copeinca's offer and pre-accepted CF's offer.
On the surface, it would appear that MH is helping CF to secure Copeinca until one finds out that before this second bid by CF, Cermaq's Board had already rejected MH's offer and thereafter, it had also forced Cermaq to withdraw the Copeinca bid.
Among the 3 players, CF is the weakest. MH has the largest cap of USD$4.0 bil, Cermaq, USD$1.7 bil and CF, the smallest, only USD$613 mil also, MH and Cermaq have a 1 yr price hike of more than 50% whereas CF's price dropped 42% in that year.
The market was then left with the question as to why CF was so eagle to up about 30% its bid over Cermaq's for Copeinca. Was it a set up or Was it just coincidental? The reader may already have answers. |
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| 20-Jul-2013 16:07 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Someone earlier mentioned that Copeinca is a done deal and indeed it is. China Fish announced on 27 June that it has already own or pre-own about 75% of Copeinca's total shares available. The annoucement to come in August is just a formality..wonder why the stock price never move.. for those who did not know and intended to jump in before August's announcement.. http://sbr.com.sg/manufacturing/more-news/china-fishery-launches-new-offer-copeinca |
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| 19-Jul-2013 18:18 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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" Its the same reason why people will continue to pay high prices for property in
Not wrong with the above statement if there are no other alternatives. First, fish food is not a must on every table everyday. There are alternatives as food. Second, there are aquaculture sea and freshwater fish (e.g those rear in ponds) as an alternative. " Globally, aquaculture supplies more that 50 percent of all seafood produced for human consumption – that percentage has been and will continue to rise. Conventional wisdom holds that traditional fisheries are producing near their maximum capacity and that future increases in seafood production must come largely from aquaculture." When sea fishing getting more expensive because of shortage in supply, aquaculture fishing will become more viable. Any additional investments to acquire more seafishing ground will only benefit the aquaculture fishing..
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| 19-Jul-2013 14:51 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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This report is a shock. Peru's export of fishmeal dropped 70% this year.. http://global.chinafeedonline.com/global/info/news/news_file/Hammersmith_28_13.pdf and the price of fishmeal in china dropped across the board http://www.chinafeedonline.com/news/817741.html |
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| 19-Jul-2013 08:25 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Copeinca has been bleeding all the year. This is the first quarter result and was a disaster. For what reason one may ask for acquring such company if not because of the fishing right.. " Fishmeal and fish oil stocks at January 1st 2013 were 7,848 MT, compared to 76,829 MT as of January 1st 2012. During the first quarter of 2013, average revenue per ton was USD 1,957/MT up from USD 1,274/MT in the same period of 2012. Revenues for the first quarter of 2013 were USD 36 million (18,429 MT) down from USD 99 million (77,734 MT) in the first quarter of 2012 due to lower inventory levels of fishmeal and fish oil from the second fishing season of the prior year as a result of significantly reduced volumes. 5,942 MT of mackerel and jack mackerel were caught during the first quarter of 2013, generating revenues amounting to USD 3 million, representing approximately 12% of the quota allocated by Peruvian authorities. CAPEX approved was USD 14 million, out of which USD 4.4 million were executed during Q1`13.
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| 19-Jul-2013 01:27 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Sorry.. somehow stockjunction does like the url.. please use google to search using the following work to paste " Bond Downgrade Potential In Emerging And Developed Markets" then use search or find to get " China Fish" The China Fish's financial data in Yahoo is shown here http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=B0Z.SI |
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| 19-Jul-2013 01:14 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Not sure why the S& P url does not work.. try this http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?articleType=HTML& assetID=1245347802664 |
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| 19-Jul-2013 01:04 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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China Fish has 3 downgrades from the Rrating Agencies, the Moody, the Fitch and the Standards and Poor.. they all give negative ratings. In Fitch's latest rating revision to negative outlook, it mentioned that China Fish would result a net debt/EBITDA to above 3.0x after acquiring Copeinca. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/04/fitch-revises-china-fisherys-outlook-to-idUSFit66263020130704 Moody did not further downgrade because it has just downgraded to negative outlook in Sept 2012 even before China Fishery tossed the idea of aquiring Copeinca. However, Moody said China Fish's net debt/EBITDA would go above 4.0x http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-China-Fisherys-to-B1-outlook-negative--PR_255290 Standards and Poor has long ago downgraded China Fish to negative outlook and has no record of upgrading http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?articleType=HTML& assetID=1245347802664 (use search) Yahoo has given EBITDA as $140m vs Total Debt of 640m based on Financial report Mar 2013.. this will give an debt/EBITDA around 4.57.. this is even before China Fish's second proposal to acquire Copeinca. Here are some Q& A for your consideration 1) Is China Fish heavily in debt? According to Financial guideline, debt/EBITDA ratios higher than 4 or 5 would normally set off alarms because they indicate that a company is likely to face difficulties in handling its debt burden, and thus is less likely to be able to raise additional loans required to grow and expand the business (somehow, they got the loan to acquire Copeinca.. must be of higher interest). Acquiring Copeinca would only add on further debt burdens which is why Fitch has its latest downgrade. 2) Why would China Fish wanted to acquire Copeinca? Copeinca is in fishmeal business and is losing money for sometime. One possible reason is China Fish is eyeing for the fishing right in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fishing_industry_in_China 3) Would China Fish's price rise after acquiring Copeinca? In view of the high debt ratio, it is not actually a blessing for China Fish to acquire Copeinca. It would not be worth the while if it is not because of acquiring more fishing ground. We know that the deal with Copeinca is already a done deal, rightfully speaking, the recent price hike should have continue and risen fast when Copeinca gave its willingness to accept the offer last week. 4) Would not the price rise fast due to small market float? Rightfully speaking, the price should always be very violatile when there is little market float. Like Sakari and if the BBs are interested, the price should rise very fast when BB cummulates but when market begins to dry up, the BBs will have to sell to cummulate more. This phenomenal did not exist in China Fish. Not only the daily trading is low, there is a complete absent of BBs that sells more than 50K lots. 5) Would China Fish head up or down? Technically speaking, China Fish is a reasonably good stock if not because of its high debt ratio. It has been given decent dividend with a yield around 5% and has a low PE of around 2.0. Its EPS yield wasn't that good around 0.5% but typical among pennies. NAV is around $0.93 which is about 3 times of present price. With the recent price hike, this share looked as if it wanted to take off however, the trade volume were low even during the recent price hike. The dismay performance last few sessions has changed the prospective. The present chart looks like China Fish could head down because of the following reasons: 1) The price touch the upper channel line unless it can break it with higher trading volume, it is likely to head down 2) The stock is over bought with Stochastic touching the top and ready to decent 3) RSI is showing diminishing strength 4) +DI is about to cut under -DI, showing that the market is ready for a sell off http://tinypic.com/r/1213epz/5 Recommendation It is possible that the condition may change quickly under light trading condition. However, it is not a stock to pick until the price has broken the upper channel line with higher than normal volume. |
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