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Dividend_Warrior Senior	03-Aug-2013 18:16        Dividend_Warrior About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "I am getting $1100 per month in dividends :)"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cheap Credit FTW!!!!!! stockpicker      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 17:44) Posted: did a net debt-ebitda ratio on most of the sg companies including the blue  chips..  shock to find out that  bulk (more than 50%) of the companies have  debt ratio of over 4.0 which will normally sound alarms.. It is so easy to borrow money nowadays and many companies are  " working slaves" for the banks.  They  can never be able to redeem  their debts if the economy does not " fly" ..
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stockpicker Master	03-Aug-2013 17:44        stockpicker About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	did a net debt-ebitda ratio on most of the sg companies including the blue  chips..  shock to find out that  bulk (more than 50%) of the companies have  debt ratio of over 4.0 which will normally sound alarms.. It is so easy to borrow money nowadays and many companies are  " working slaves" for the banks.  They  can never be able to redeem  their debts if the economy does not " fly" ..
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sgng123 Supreme	03-Aug-2013 15:41        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	the next financial crisis would be asia due to asset bubble bursting as a result of global interest hike. all should know how ridiculous high property price in Singapore compare to salary earned. another 1997 crisis just round the corner, maybe 2015/2016 mine guess. stockpicker      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 15:12) Posted: dun bet on the 10 year cycle.  Bernanke has changed the game plan.  the cycle is now shorter.
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sgng123 Supreme	03-Aug-2013 15:27        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Golden rule is be patience and wait out for storm to be over soon daybreak and we can trade again. Currently too much uncertainty and no BB in market to move ship.
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sgng123 Supreme	03-Aug-2013 15:24        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I did post a article on spot rate market and it is in a dismal state, shippers all moved away from it due to too much movement and trading volume almost dip into the deep hole. Imagine u just need all the carriers to gang up and  raise price on open market then spot rate can jump to  ridiculous level but if no taker for it then no impact on revenue. Following demand/supply data more realistics, cos no demand even if ur spot rate is $10 000 but no taker and u still lose money cos ur ship is not filled up lose on the oil money/labour. NOL dig out SCFI cos they need to find a scapegoat to answer for the poor  judgement of management for not anticipating the weak demand after CNY by releasing more capacity than needed, typical of Singaporean management finding scapegoat instead of owning up and resign. No shippers would be in the right mind to  book  container space in the open space cos they all know this spot  rate market is all but a scheme to hook them  up for overpricing. Directly booking with liners make more sense as rate is stable and can get discount if big customers. Can just compare with fixed rate and float rate housing loan, which one do u go for ? no need to think must be fixed rate lol.  pseudo      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 10:18) Posted: Don't agree on not following spot rates. Nol in audio brief already indicated that they want more spot exposure. Also 1q report they dig out scfi chart to trend to justify. sgng123      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 10:03) Posted: Making bet based on BDI and spot rate movement is risky due to the fact spot rate movement don correspond to actual demand and supply situation. Majority of container trade are based on fixed yearly contract between shippers and carriers, spot rate contract only come into play when carriers need to squeeze in extra cargo to maximise load factor or to gain market share. Check out the link below, this would give a better view of actual demand/supply need. http://ciw.drewry.co.uk/trade_route_analysis/supplydemand-asia-wcna-5/#.Ufxkrd_2Prc
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stockpicker Master	03-Aug-2013 15:12        stockpicker About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	dun bet on the 10 year cycle.  Bernanke has changed the game plan.  the cycle is now shorter.
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Dividend_Warrior Senior	03-Aug-2013 13:23        Dividend_Warrior About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "I am getting $1100 per month in dividends :)"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	On average, there is a financial crisis every 10 years. 1987 crisis 1997 crisis 2008 crisis 2017 or 2018 crisis again?? So, by the time NOL 'recovered' fully (assuming it does recover!), the world is in another financial crisis again. Hahahahaha!!!
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pseudo Member	03-Aug-2013 10:59        pseudo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Short term follow nav lol halleluyah      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 10:41) Posted: No matter how, at the current px will "pau" profitted in the mid to long term. I asume tis ship wun sink below $1. 1.03 is a gd px to long. Am vested vry small only. Waiting to add.
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halleluyah Supreme	03-Aug-2013 10:41        halleluyah About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No matter how, at the current px will "pau" profitted in the mid to long term. I asume tis ship wun sink below $1. 1.03 is a gd px to long. Am vested vry small only. Waiting to add.
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pseudo Member	03-Aug-2013 10:18        pseudo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don't agree on not following spot rates. Nol in audio brief already indicated that they want more spot exposure. Also 1q report they dig out scfi chart to trend to justify. sgng123      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 10:03) Posted: Making bet based on BDI and spot rate movement is risky due to the fact spot rate movement don correspond to actual demand and supply situation. Majority of container trade are based on fixed yearly contract between shippers and carriers, spot rate contract only come into play when carriers need to squeeze in extra cargo to maximise load factor or to gain market share. Check out the link below, this would give a better view of actual demand/supply need. http://ciw.drewry.co.uk/trade_route_analysis/supplydemand-asia-wcna-5/#.Ufxkrd_2Prc
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pseudo Member	03-Aug-2013 10:09        pseudo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	On the bright side bunker is low. 2q last year was 691/mt. The jap carriers lowest reported was 606/mt. Neftech deal for fuel additives (50 ships) may push bunker lower still. Though we won't know the direct savings from this. A flat result or small loss is not totally out of picture. Profit is a long shot though with high Drepreciation and taxes. sgng123      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 21:32) Posted: SCFI up by 74 pts most likely peak season surcharge transpacific got 50% through and some part of the Europe GRI. But again all this is spot rate data, 2Q container demand seem to be rebounding from 1Q dismal data. Now time to see if fleet renewal program and ELP cost saving program would result in how much cost saving. This year result is all hinged on how much lower the operating cost can be lowered to returned ship to black. Revenue most likely remained the same as last year since demand not much improvement compared YoY  due to overcapacity. 2014 would be better due to P3 operating in 2Q = less aggressive pricing in market and little new built coming on line. By the way NOL in the last 2 years was in fact doing group restructuring exercise  getting rid of capacity/manpower redundancy and resetting slot cost through fleet renewal etc. Top 3 carriers are already running in leaner form and cut cost to bone long before NOL so can make money. By the end of this year, most of the major east to west charters ships would be returned to owners and reduced operating cost to the bone. We would all know by next wed night whether army col would succeed in arresting the loss making trend so keep finger cross and stay out of ship till then.
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sgng123 Supreme	03-Aug-2013 10:03        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Making bet based on BDI and spot rate movement is risky due to the fact spot rate movement don correspond to actual demand and supply situation. Majority of container trade are based on fixed yearly contract between shippers and carriers, spot rate contract only come into play when carriers need to squeeze in extra cargo to maximise load factor or to gain market share. Check out the link below, this would give a better view of actual demand/supply need. http://ciw.drewry.co.uk/trade_route_analysis/supplydemand-asia-wcna-5/#.Ufxkrd_2Prc
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Hawkeye Master	03-Aug-2013 09:50        Hawkeye About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I expect NOL 2Q2013 to lost. Just how much. 1H2013 sucks for shipping and ship building. BDI below 1000 only in  June 2013 lifted above 1000. Shanghai Container rates dropping did not go up in 1H2013. I expect NOL 3Q2013 to improve, hopefully profit. BDI above 1000 and Shanghai Container rates  start to increase. and Shipbuilding and Offshore orders are mostly in July and August of 2013. Still vested in this ship. Always make money from this ship. :)    ynnek1267      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 22:22) Posted: Without the net gain of 200mil from headquarter sales, NOL has recorded 2 years straight loss. Most likely, coming quarter shall be another loss recorded since average spot rate of 2Q is much lower than 1Q. sgng123      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 21:32) Posted: SCFI up by 74 pts most likely peak season surcharge transpacific got 50% through and some part of the Europe GRI. But again all this is spot rate data, 2Q container demand seem to be rebounding from 1Q dismal data. Now time to see if fleet renewal program and ELP cost saving program would result in how much cost saving. This year result is all hinged on how much lower the operating cost can be lowered to returned ship to black. Revenue most likely remained the same as last year since demand not much improvement compared YoY  due to overcapacity. 2014 would be better due to P3 operating in 2Q = less aggressive pricing in market and little new built coming on line. By the way NOL in the last 2 years was in fact doing group restructuring exercise  getting rid of capacity/manpower redundancy and resetting slot cost through fleet renewal etc. Top 3 carriers are already running in leaner form and cut cost to bone long before NOL so can make money. By the end of this year, most of the major east to west charters ships would be returned to owners and reduced operating cost to the bone. We would all know by next wed night whether army col would succeed in arresting the loss making trend so keep finger cross and stay out of ship till then.
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ynnek1267 Master	02-Aug-2013 22:22        ynnek1267 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Without the net gain of 200mil from headquarter sales, NOL has recorded 2 years straight loss. Most likely, coming quarter shall be another loss recorded since average spot rate of 2Q is much lower than 1Q. sgng123      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 21:32) Posted: SCFI up by 74 pts most likely peak season surcharge transpacific got 50% through and some part of the Europe GRI. But again all this is spot rate data, 2Q container demand seem to be rebounding from 1Q dismal data. Now time to see if fleet renewal program and ELP cost saving program would result in how much cost saving. This year result is all hinged on how much lower the operating cost can be lowered to returned ship to black. Revenue most likely remained the same as last year since demand not much improvement compared YoY  due to overcapacity. 2014 would be better due to P3 operating in 2Q = less aggressive pricing in market and little new built coming on line. By the way NOL in the last 2 years was in fact doing group restructuring exercise  getting rid of capacity/manpower redundancy and resetting slot cost through fleet renewal etc. Top 3 carriers are already running in leaner form and cut cost to bone long before NOL so can make money. By the end of this year, most of the major east to west charters ships would be returned to owners and reduced operating cost to the bone. We would all know by next wed night whether army col would succeed in arresting the loss making trend so keep finger cross and stay out of ship till then.
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sgng123 Supreme	02-Aug-2013 21:32        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	SCFI up by 74 pts most likely peak season surcharge transpacific got 50% through and some part of the Europe GRI. But again all this is spot rate data, 2Q container demand seem to be rebounding from 1Q dismal data. Now time to see if fleet renewal program and ELP cost saving program would result in how much cost saving. This year result is all hinged on how much lower the operating cost can be lowered to returned ship to black. Revenue most likely remained the same as last year since demand not much improvement compared YoY  due to overcapacity. 2014 would be better due to P3 operating in 2Q = less aggressive pricing in market and little new built coming on line. By the way NOL in the last 2 years was in fact doing group restructuring exercise  getting rid of capacity/manpower redundancy and resetting slot cost through fleet renewal etc. Top 3 carriers are already running in leaner form and cut cost to bone long before NOL so can make money. By the end of this year, most of the major east to west charters ships would be returned to owners and reduced operating cost to the bone. We would all know by next wed night whether army col would succeed in arresting the loss making trend so keep finger cross and stay out of ship till then.
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ynnek1267 Master	02-Aug-2013 17:36        ynnek1267 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	surprise on upside? Europe & US recovery? top 3 Maersk, MSC, CMA all earn money in 2012. What NOL was doing? lose till selling the headquarter. This year, no more headquarter to sell loh. The General has to knock Mdm Ho door and ask for money loh. sgng123      ( Date: 02-Aug-2013 17:26) Posted: Think lot of small retail shortists also thinking the same lol. Just don get hurt if NOL surprise on the upside. US and Europe economy are both starting to recover, hot fund moving out of asia stock market and into Dow jones / European stock market. Tonight at 8.30pm US job data report would kick off 3Q recovery story in US.
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pseudo Member	02-Aug-2013 17:30        pseudo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Announcement is PSS is delayed to 15 aug. GRI is delayed to 1 sept. Both was announced for 1 Aug. sgng123      ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 22:32) Posted: Checked APL website and found GRI US $400 on transpacific on 1 August, followed by another PSS US$400 on 15 August. Both rate hikes are applicable to spot rate customers and service contract. Might see further  rate hike  in 3Q to boost revenue.
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sgng123 Supreme	02-Aug-2013 17:26        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Think lot of small retail shortists also thinking the same lol. Just don get hurt if NOL surprise on the upside. US and Europe economy are both starting to recover, hot fund moving out of asia stock market and into Dow jones / European stock market. Tonight at 8.30pm US job data report would kick off 3Q recovery story in US.
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Dividend_Warrior Senior	02-Aug-2013 15:20        Dividend_Warrior About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "I am getting $1100 per month in dividends :)"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I shall queue at $1...... ynnek1267      ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 16:27) Posted: 7 Aug, day of breaking 1 dollar. Waahahahahahahaha
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ynnek1267 Master	02-Aug-2013 10:07        ynnek1267 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	high likely mission fail.
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