ShareJunction - Member Posts

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😁 😁 😁 Yaya more advance. How advance can a technology be by drilling a hole till 10,000ft, fill in the chemical water, then using the pump to pressure the well to crack the stone and rock, then, start to extract the oil and gas out from the well.😁 😁 😁

Anyway dyodd

kerier ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 11:51) Posted:

Lol, its not consolidation that brings down costs. Why is shale oil cheaper to extract? Its because of technological advances which brought down the costs of shale drilling.

The low breakeven cost of shale oil made OPEC panic and now oil majors are lowering or withdrawing CAPEX for new and existing E& P. The significant decline in work caused charter rates to dive because all the O& G support companies want to keep their vessels working instead of laying them up.

earlybird14 ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 11:42) Posted:

A lot of thing you never hear Loh.

For example a jackup rigs 3 years ago worth 220mio. Today may be sold in auction by creditors at 120-130mio for the same rig but 3year order. Cost of drilling involved capex and opex. One of the capex are the cost of jackup rigs, it bring down 30-40% cost just after 1 oil recession.

Shale oil why cost lower now? 1 thing is due to efficiency improve by knowing how after year of experience, other reason are those winding up drilling equipment become cheaper in the market.

Opex capex both go lower.

Before oil boom in 2005, 1 new jack up rigs construction cost is 130-140mio, after boom Keppel sell average at 210-230 mio each after 2007.

Now you know why the industry can pay 1 year bonus?😁 😁 😁

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So gov will rescue the industry but only when all the creditors and people involve in the industry fell from heaven to hell and accept the rescue package will be just 2/3 or 1/2 of their purchased value since which vessels were not bought at speculation price in past 5 years?

Icbc claimed 190mio from Ezra for a offshore vessel? Wake up lah, this amount can order a brand new jackup rigs from Keppel with further discount lohz

earlybird14 ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 11:42) Posted:

A lot of thing you never hear Loh.

For example a jackup rigs 3 years ago worth 220mio. Today may be sold in auction by creditors at 120-130mio for the same rig but 3year order. Cost of drilling involved capex and opex. One of the capex are the cost of jackup rigs, it bring down 30-40% cost just after 1 oil recession.

Shale oil why cost lower now? 1 thing is due to efficiency improve by knowing how after year of experience, other reason are those winding up drilling equipment become cheaper in the market.

Opex capex both go lower.

Before oil boom in 2005, 1 new jack up rigs construction cost is 130-140mio, after boom Keppel sell average at 210-230 mio each after 2007.

Now you know why the industry can pay 1 year bonus?😁 😁 😁

kerier ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 11:32) Posted:

consolidation brings down costs? first time i heard that... the few players who survive this crisis will be able to command better rates going forward.

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A lot of thing you never hear Loh.

For example a jackup rigs 3 years ago worth 220mio. Today may be sold in auction by creditors at 120-130mio for the same rig but 3year order. Cost of drilling involved capex and opex. One of the capex are the cost of jackup rigs, it bring down 30-40% cost just after 1 oil recession.

Shale oil why cost lower now? 1 thing is due to efficiency improve by knowing how after year of experience, other reason are those winding up drilling equipment become cheaper in the market.

Opex capex both go lower.

Before oil boom in 2005, 1 new jack up rigs construction cost is 130-140mio, after boom Keppel sell average at 210-230 mio each after 2007.

Now you know why the industry can pay 1 year bonus?😁 😁 😁

kerier ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 11:32) Posted:

consolidation brings down costs? first time i heard that... the few players who survive this crisis will be able to command better rates going forward.

earlybird14 ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 08:41) Posted:

Close down but assets still there.

Consolidation tend to bring down opex and capex cost, especially the capex cost which write off impairment loss and the assets go to next owner at cheaper price.

Shale oil companies in U.S. And Canada consolidation are much faster than offshore market since their winding up started in 2015, so now their cost become cheaper and cheaper.

Oil price will be back de. 风水轮流转 . About 2-3 more days for market to digest oil from Iran. Oil production won't grow in next 2-3 years, so next oil boom over 100 dollars estimate in 2019-2020

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Steady up up in Red Sea.😁 😁 😁

luladi ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 10:21) Posted:

Happy happy. Haha

earlybird14 ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 09:38) Posted:

Steady up up up never down although slow. But I like it.

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You should follow me to buy hph trust at 38.5. You can see how stable uptrend can be from a low support level. Now 40-40.5

earlybird14 ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 10:14) Posted:

Technically month upper bollinger resistance are strong and stubborn. Strong accumulation shall be happen at lower price for weeks and go up to attack tend to break.

Like that range bound 9.42-9.65 no matter how many time I see still a distribution at resistance pattern.

I may be wrong lah. But if you see 9.55 again, must be very alert.

davidoch ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 10:10) Posted:

Bird,

don' t like that leh..I need to make some money form this counter....if u think technically will come down probably afetr Fed hike?

Look at Sunningdale Tech, going up..undertsood they got apple contract (Just not sure?)

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Technically month upper bollinger resistance are strong and stubborn. Strong accumulation shall be happen at lower price for weeks and go up to attack tend to break.

Like that range bound 9.42-9.65 no matter how many time I see still a distribution at resistance pattern.

I may be wrong lah. But if you see 9.55 again, must be very alert.

davidoch ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 10:10) Posted:

Bird,

don' t like that leh..I need to make some money form this counter....if u think technically will come down probably afetr Fed hike?

Look at Sunningdale Tech, going up..undertsood they got apple contract (Just not sure?)

earlybird14 ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 10:08) Posted:

Same leh. 9.65 resistance.

Come down and go up to retest. Still fail come down Loh, break go up.

But I still think it will go down😁 😁 😁

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Same leh. 9.65 resistance.

Come down and go up to retest. Still fail come down Loh, break go up.

But I still think it will go down😁 😁 😁

davidoch ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 09:55) Posted:

Bird TT

OCBC runing with news out on 16 Mar or continue, technical view? Yesterday forgot to short Keppel.....

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Market standstill with potential fed hike interest rate on Wednesday and boj also will update qe package and interest rate too.

After that market will anyhow run.

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Steady up up up never down although slow. But I like it.

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Close down but assets still there.

Consolidation tend to bring down opex and capex cost, especially the capex cost which write off impairment loss and the assets go to next owner at cheaper price.

Shale oil companies in U.S. And Canada consolidation are much faster than offshore market since their winding up started in 2015, so now their cost become cheaper and cheaper.

Oil price will be back de. 风水轮流转 . About 2-3 more days for market to digest oil from Iran. Oil production won't grow in next 2-3 years, so next oil boom over 100 dollars estimate in 2019-2020.

TMW1986 ( Date: 14-Mar-2017 07:48) Posted:

Can wait Long Long for oil back to 100 dollar per barrel. Don't know how many companies will close down first.

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 20:58) Posted:

It will. Because offshore oil will be back and energy shortages era will be coming, oil consumption never drop just grow slowly. The oversupply just 2-3% more which take 2-3 years for consumption to catch up. The consumption can digest shale oil production and need offshore oil back.

Once catch up, oil will be back to 100 an even higher, because there are not replacement economically in the world now.

Does Gov want to miss out the oil boom in next decade? Again, the world doesn't have so much industry can generate high revenue de.😁 😁 😁

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Cpo price 2720😔 😔 😔

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 17:06) Posted:

TA ok but FA not ok.

Cpo price.

goldenchasis ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 16:54) Posted:

CFD 8000 lots bought at 0.38-0.385 since last Wed, luckily 0.38 still holding, go up man, huat lah ...

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Or you start up a new Samsung in Singapore which can contribute 20-30% GDP 😁 😁 😁

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 20:58) Posted:

It will. Because offshore oil will be back and energy shortages era will be coming, oil consumption never drop just grow slowly. The oversupply just 2-3% more which take 2-3 years for consumption to catch up. The consumption can digest shale oil production and need offshore oil back.

Once catch up, oil will be back to 100 an even higher, because there are not replacement economically in the world now.

Does Gov want to miss out the oil boom in next decade? Again, the world doesn't have so much industry can generate high revenue de.😁 😁 😁

kerier ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 20:47) Posted:

If the companies cannot generate enough revenue to pay high salaries and still stay profitable then what is the point of them existing?

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It will. Because offshore oil will be back and energy shortages era will be coming, oil consumption never drop just grow slowly. The oversupply just 2-3% more which take 2-3 years for consumption to catch up. The consumption can digest shale oil production and need offshore oil back.

Once catch up, oil will be back to 100 an even higher, because there are not replacement economically in the world now.

Does Gov want to miss out the oil boom in next decade? Again, the world doesn't have so much industry can generate high revenue de.😁 😁 😁

kerier ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 20:47) Posted:

If the companies cannot generate enough revenue to pay high salaries and still stay profitable then what is the point of them existing?

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 20:32) Posted:

Of course for the jobs lah, High salary jobs in global😁 😁 😁

Struggling? high pay in the industry mah, no high pay how to attract talents to expand the business. Now after taking years of pain, local pick up the skills, then gov want to say bye bye to the industry?

Singaporean only can survive with high paid jobs. You thought so many high paid industry meh.

Gov will rescue them. Wait and see loh😁 😁 😁

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Of course for the jobs lah, High salary jobs in global😁 😁 😁

Struggling? high pay in the industry mah, no high pay how to attract talents to expand the business. Now after taking years of pain, local pick up the skills, then gov want to say bye bye to the industry?

Singaporean only can survive with high paid jobs. You thought so many high paid industry meh.

Gov will rescue them. Wait and see loh😁 😁 😁

kerier ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 20:19) Posted:

Ya why Singapore flag? Cos there are tax exemptions and not all vessels are registered with MPA.

Ya go calculate then you know the banks didn' t make any money. Unsecured bondholders got only 5% to 7% interest so how much did the banks get from these secured vessel loans? Do the math and you will know.

You said rescue whole O& G industry and that includes Ezra and Swiber. Keppel and Sembmarine are in good hands so they aren' t facing any immediate danger. Reset the management? You think so easy? Ezra and Swiber were already struggling when oil was near $100.

Why not GIC and Temasek just invest in O& G companies that can still survive or shale companies? I would be pissed if the gov is going to throw away taxpayers' money like how you suggest it should.

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 19:55) Posted:

Then you should ask bank if they lose or earn money in past 12 years since 2005.

All vessel registered under SINGAPORE, executives level designers and office staffs all are in Singapore.

Of course lah, SINGAPORE where got oil field😂 😂 😂

Did I say rescue Ezra and Swiber? I said to rescue the industry dude. Jm both companies, reset the management, settle debts with creditors with lowest cost. Then get ready for next offshore boom😁 😁 😁

If U.S. government let GM die no rescue them from bankruptcy, today don't have GM Loh and U.S. Are dominated with japan or Korean car already.

Temasek and gic can lose billion dollars on Switzerland and U.S. Banks, why can't dump billion for the industry, the whole industry also billion mah

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Then you should ask bank if they lose or earn money in past 12 years since 2005.

All vessel registered under SINGAPORE, executives level designers and office staffs all are in Singapore.

Of course lah, SINGAPORE where got oil field😂 😂 😂

Did I say rescue Ezra and Swiber? I said to rescue the industry dude. Jm both companies, reset the management, settle debts with creditors with lowest cost. Then get ready for next offshore boom😁 😁 😁

If U.S. government let GM die no rescue them from bankruptcy, today don't have GM Loh and U.S. Are dominated with japan or Korean car already.

Temasek and gic can lose billion dollars on Switzerland and U.S. Banks, why can't dump billion for the industry, the whole industry also billion mah.

kerier ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 19:36) Posted:

The banks will lose more money than they made through single digit percent loans and front-end fees. Do you think Ezra, Swiber, Swissco etc buy their vessels, equipments or repair their vessels in Singapore? Nope they don' t. Their vessels don' t work in Singapore, they work where the oil fields are - in the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Gulf, SEA. Do they repair or service their vessels in Singapore?

If the gov is willing to part with NOL which they owned for a damn long time, what makes you think they will rescue these 3rd party companies? They can still focus on the maritime industry, ports, bunkering, shipbuilding, oil refining, oil storage, banking, wealth management, technology etc. When you have to cut loss, you better CUT LOSS.

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 19:17) Posted:

The implication of 1 industry gone in Singapore will be extended to other industry like transportation and storage( offshore platform transportation and equipment transportation from warehouse to yard and offshore hub and fuel refilling and this and that) finance and insurance( see how much debt involved with banks and offshore companies, although banks are in trouble now but in the past few years, how much money banks earned from those company through financing and insurance for those vessels and people working in that industry?) business service( those people working in offshore companies no need to be served? Expatriate staying in Singapore, contribute rental fee for condo and all kind of services) manufacturing( equipment on board the vessels are from factories and some in Singapore factories)

Don't rescue this industry? Gov better think what else can fill the gap especially all industry are running with cycle and no one can be forever peak. Don't be just a downturn and abandon this industry. So next semiconductor and electronic bubble(going to come soon) so gov abandon this industry as well?

😁 😁 😁 😁

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The implication of 1 industry gone in Singapore will be extended to other industry like transportation and storage( offshore platform transportation and equipment transportation from warehouse to yard and offshore hub and fuel refilling and this and that) finance and insurance( see how much debt involved with banks and offshore companies, although banks are in trouble now but in the past few years, how much money banks earned from those company through financing and insurance for those vessels and people working in that industry?) business service( those people working in offshore companies no need to be served? Expatriate staying in Singapore, contribute rental fee for condo and all kind of services) manufacturing( equipment on board the vessels are from factories and some in Singapore factories)

Don't rescue this industry? Gov better think what else can fill the gap especially all industry are running with cycle and no one can be forever peak. Don't be just a downturn and abandon this industry. So next semiconductor and electronic bubble(going to come soon) so gov abandon this industry as well?

😁 😁 😁 😁

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 19:06) Posted:

😁 😁 😁 let's see.

Many offshore MNCs had moved out and said bye bye to Singapore. Gov don't try to rescue local offshore companies, once all gone, the whole industry will say bye bye to Singapore forever even next oil and offshore boom also will be none of SINGAPORE business.

do you really think our gov has plenty of choice to create jobs? How much GDP offshore plus shipbuilding contribute to Singapore at peak? Especially the period in 2009-2013 when semi conductors and electronic industry was very down? More than 10%, this sectors created many jobs more than you think in 2009-2013.

Do you think gov don't scare next big scale of semi con and electronic industry down or recession? If down what industry can create jobs? You really think our gov has plenty of choice or the world has plenty of industry?

😁 😁 😁 so gov will rescue and they have to since they know semiconductor and electronic industry cycle is at peak and anytime will come down.

kerier ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 18:11) Posted:

No, the government will not step in to rescue these falling O& G companies. It already has sufficient exposure through Keppel and Sembmarine and how many local staff does EZRA have? Probably more foreign crew and expats on their paylist than local staff plus the warning signs are all there for shareholders to exit.

If you think there will be a white knight, yep if the banks are foolish enough to continue lending because the industry players will just wait for the vessels to be arrested and come to sale on the market.

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😁 😁 😁 let's see.

Many offshore MNCs had moved out and said bye bye to Singapore. Gov don't try to rescue local offshore companies, once all gone, the whole industry will say bye bye to Singapore forever even next oil and offshore boom also will be none of SINGAPORE business.

do you really think our gov has plenty of choice to create jobs? How much GDP offshore plus shipbuilding contribute to Singapore at peak? Especially the period in 2009-2013 when semi conductors and electronic industry was very down? More than 10%, this sectors created many jobs more than you think in 2009-2013.

Do you think gov don't scare next big scale of semi con and electronic industry down or recession? If down what industry can create jobs? You really think our gov has plenty of choice or the world has plenty of industry?

😁 😁 😁 so gov will rescue and they have to since they know semiconductor and electronic industry cycle is at peak and anytime will come down.

kerier ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 18:11) Posted:

No, the government will not step in to rescue these falling O& G companies. It already has sufficient exposure through Keppel and Sembmarine and how many local staff does EZRA have? Probably more foreign crew and expats on their paylist than local staff plus the warning signs are all there for shareholders to exit.

If you think there will be a white knight, yep if the banks are foolish enough to continue lending because the industry players will just wait for the vessels to be arrested and come to sale on the market.

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 15:50) Posted:

No really. They were betting the offshore vessel boom by purchasing those vessels with fixed chartered rate contract from Ezra by expecting Ezra can pay them full charter rate at the same time to expect the vessel value can be appreciated. Worst come to worst take compensation and charter the vessel to other party

千算万算 never expect the market so bad till Ezra got no money to pay them and cannot find anyone to charter the vessel, so now they only can turn their gun on Ezra and push all false to Ezra and would like to claim back all the money 190mio? How many same type of vessel can be purchased from open market? At least 2.

So even though gov want to keep Ezra and Swiber afloat, they also must wait till these creditors who still leaving in the heaven go to hell first and buy from them at cheap price. Otherwise just ask 3 banks to consolidate the bad debt they have from Swiber and Ezra, then winding up both company assets and set up a new one with the assets from both company.

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Then I enjoy the dividend and see how high it can go. Add up 1 year more than 20% return will do.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 17:12) Posted:

Personally, I don' t think mr li will bring it home..He has been trying to move in the other direction.

Recently, he is ageing very fast... (a point for worry!)

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 16:58) Posted:

For REITs property appreciate or depreciate, you won't know and can't profit from it if the property is not sold at high price.

So eventually REITs still work on dividend basis. Dividend up, price up, dividend down price down.

For property assets value, as usual, sgx stock all same, know how to record property asset gain In profit but don't know how to record property impairment loss.

We will only know 1 day the counter burst and massive write down on assets value like RMT and etc, next will be APTT.

How is Manulife, since it is just Ipo for less than 1 month. Ipo REITs mostly do whatever they can do to boost Ipo price so normally it is fully appreciated, so no worth to buy for dividend since there are other old REITs which may give better dividend like acendas REITs with 6.1%.

Hph trust is a bet on price appreciation by hoping someone know how to appreciate the 50% discounted counter since Ipo and also hope mr li will take it home(hongkong

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TA ok but FA not ok.

Cpo price.

goldenchasis ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 16:54) Posted:

CFD 8000 lots bought at 0.38-0.385 since last Wed, luckily 0.38 still holding, go up man, huat lah ...

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For REITs property appreciate or depreciate, you won't know and can't profit from it if the property is not sold at high price.

So eventually REITs still work on dividend basis. Dividend up, price up, dividend down price down.

For property assets value, as usual, sgx stock all same, know how to record property asset gain In profit but don't know how to record property impairment loss.

We will only know 1 day the counter burst and massive write down on assets value like RMT and etc, next will be APTT.

How is Manulife, since it is just Ipo for less than 1 month. Ipo REITs mostly do whatever they can do to boost Ipo price so normally it is fully appreciated, so no worth to buy for dividend since there are other old REITs which may give better dividend like acendas REITs with 6.1%.

Hph trust is a bet on price appreciation by hoping someone know how to appreciate the 50% discounted counter since Ipo and also hope mr li will take it home(hongkong)

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 16:28) Posted:

make sense...

longer term, another consideration is the potential appreciation of value of properties portfolio

Comparing their Charts, Manulife looked slightly better in the next few days.

But they do not appeal to me.

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Mar-2017 16:06) Posted:

Which REITs or trust listed in sgx never fall but up within 2 years?

Trust is dividend. Manulife 4.2%, hph trust 6.7%.

Payout ratio. Hph trust 100% of eps. Manulife without tax, net profit is 21mio and pay 22mio. This is without tax, with tax net profit may be 18mio, so payout ratio is 110-120%.(don't count property assets gain because buy trust for dividend, dividend is cash generation through operation or rental fee, no cash no dividend).

So of course hph trust win Manulife Reit 2 street