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26-Jul-2014 07:50

Valuetronics / Biz Times june 26..Valuetronics to expand

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As this is not one-tier tax company, the dividend yield will be subject to income tax/corporate tax, thus for institute player reaction to the ex-dividend will be to sell off, as for 3cents dividend, it is actually divide into 2.xx cents cash and 0.yy cents tax. As during the ex-dividend the share price will automatically reduce by 3cents, and by holding on it you will have a loss of 0.yy cents loss, in singapore corporate tax is around 30%, thus a loss of around 1 cents, if the trade volume is large this will be significant loss. What will happen after ex-dividend for those company that is not one-tier tax company? That depend on is the share a good one, will the institute be interested in getting the share is the determining factor, as those sell off before ex-dividend, if they return to buy back the share, then it will create an over demand which will shoot up the share price, but if this is not there it will depend on previous direction, market sentiment and technical chart to follow its path.

HVRRVH ( Date: 26-Jul-2014 00:05) Posted:

price dipped by 3 cents and dividend is also about 3 cents (sgd). if price does not dip further it is pointless for you to buy back, isn' t it? if you didn' t sell today (last CD), you' ll be entitled to 3 cents dividend. best actually is sell yesterday or early this morning and buy back before market close,this way you earn both way, immediate 3 cents gained and still entitled to dividend with lower holding cost. if price doesn' t dip on tuesday you lose commission fee. but true lah, i also suspect price might dip on tuesday and is standing by to buy more.

already vested.

sgfreestyler ( Date: 25-Jul-2014 23:43) Posted:

ya.. i have sold and will buy back after xd

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21-Jul-2014 07:27

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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The reason for the subsequent result should be good one, is that the copeinca shares 100% transfer have only complete in this year march, and the contribution of the copeinca should start to realise in the coming financial statement which is Apr ~ Jun 2014. As for the dept to EDBITA, it will be a lacking figure as the dept is to acquisition, and the benefit of acquisition will only be seen in the future, which still have yet to realise in current financial statement.

cheongsl ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 07:08) Posted:

Note the different in the currency that might have create the different in the data. The other reason for my entry is technical. The chart show the break through of resistance with volume. Both the previous support that change to resistance at 0.375 and also the slope resistance. And currently the trend still maintain true and next resistance level should be at 0.41.

stockpicker ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 21:50) Posted:

This one for week 28..dd 15 July 2014.. the price increases have trend of stablising..

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21-Jul-2014 07:08

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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stockpicker ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 21:50) Posted:

This one for week 28..dd 15 July 2014.. the price increases have trend of stablising..

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20-Jul-2014 19:21

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Thanks for replying but the data you provide does not seems to correlated with my and are you sure Norway is still the top four fishmeal exporter? Even Malaysia fishmeal export supply is more then Norway for the past few year.

The price peak in Dec 2012 not in 2013, and for 2014 it is still rising, is Jun 2014 the peak

stockpicker ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 14:41) Posted:

CF is not insovent. It is just not as healthy after having cumulated debts of around $1.5 bln and increasing. Moody rated B2 for this counter which means the counter is not prime and the investment will be risky. Moody has just placed Copeinca under negative credit watch after the solicitation. Fitch has similar ratings.

The Net Debt to Ebitda ratio standing presently at around 8.0 due to better earnings reported in the recent 2^nd qrt. Before that, the ratio was more than 12.0. There were doubts that it would be able to service the debts if the earnings continued to deteriorate.

Fishmeal business is not as plain sailing as was described. Fishmeal export peaked in 1993 and reduced by more than 2/3 in 2014 after the price hiked at about 5x since 2004.

Because of the price hike in fishmeal, many animal farms are going for alternatives food or use lesser and lesser fishmeal in the food mix. The over fishing and the El-Nino in recent years affected not only the fish catch but also the production of fishmeal. As a result, almost all the fishmeal companies lose money in 2011/12. Three of the top 5 fishmeal companies put up for sale and only Copeinca can find a buyer so far.

Last year, the fishmeal companies have had a good year when their export increased together with a price hike. However, this good time will not last because it was not due to picking up in the demand but rather the Chinese, knowing the seriousness of the prevailing El-Nino, stocked up fish meal in order to ride through the present bad season. As a result, the price did not hike as much this year and peaked less than 2013.

Because of the lower catch and the capped peak price of fishmeal, it will be a surprise if CF can report a 3rd qrtly result as as rosy as 1st qrtly in end 2013 and 2nd qrt in early 2014.

cheongsl ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 07:44) Posted:

Thanks for your information. Dept ratio of 0.58 isn' t very high should not have solvency risk at the moment.

Of course the mention is not the only few reason that I enter. The fish meal industries is in the long terms upward trend with the pricing going upwards, and current trend is going upward again. Thus expect Apr~Jun quater income statement to improve.

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20-Jul-2014 07:44

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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stockpicker ( Date: 16-Jul-2014 00:37) Posted:

The cash of USD $80 mil was the 1st refund for the termination of agreement for the ending of the Russian Pollock supply of fishes. CF borrowed money and pre-paid USD$438 for this agreement in 2012 and 2013. One should say the Russian Pollock deal is a failed business and CF is saddened with a debt in which CF is now paying a heavy financial cost. Together with the USD$800 mil borrowed to acquire Copeinca, CF has cumulated about SGD$1,5 billions of debts with interest or finance cost of over SGD$100 mil per year. This 1st refund may be able to cover the financial cost and show some surpluses in the coming quarterly report but those who knows that background will discount such " incomes" if it is reflected in the earning report. It would be wise for CF to use the balance of the refund to reduce its long term debts rather than keeping it as cash as they should have enough cash after changing its stand to redeem the Copeinca' s senior bonds.

cheongsl
Master

15-Jul-2014 21:50 User is Offline

About cheongsl

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Alert Admin

I have just vested.

Net Asset value per share is USD0.58, which is around S$0.72, current price is trade at around 50% discount.

The company is having profit over the years.

For the third quarter result, which is from Apr ~Jun 2014, it will be positively impact by the long term supply termination for LSA which shall be contributed of 80million USD in cash in Apr 2014, refer to news release on 24march 2014.

Total LSA for remaining for refund is actually 161 million USD, this will make China Fish cash rich for other exploration.

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15-Jul-2014 21:50

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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JMS213 ( Date: 15-Jul-2014 17:34) Posted:

When we talk about Equilibrium we are referring to the trend.

Will be patience and enjoy ... ikan belis or juvenile fish is no good.

Go for the Sailfish more exciting .... take it ez

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10-Jul-2014 07:19

Valuetronics / Biz Times june 26..Valuetronics to expand

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Have diversify for the past few weeks not much on hand now, take more then one year for all this gain, although I believe it will continue to go up somemore, but choose to take most of my profit, currently have transfer to yingli, usually I pick up with above 7k~8k amount per entry to avoid any move in the market and also save on the minimun brokage, as for how long will ying li return will need to wait patiently as I am more a fisherman, through out my balt for the bigger fish to be on line.

cheongsl ( Date: 05-Apr-2013 07:24) Posted:

Get in another 50lots two days ago.

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03-Jun-2014 20:30

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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DBS Equity Research

Yangzijiang - Selldown seems overdone BUY on weakness, TP unchanged at S$1.55

Share price of Yangzijiang fell 11% on headlines that CEO Mr. Ren is under investigation for misconduct relating to his personal investment in China-listed Tianjin Guoheng Railway Holding (Guoheng). Yangzijiang has released announcement to clarify that the allegations are against Mr Ren and not Yangzijiang. In addition, Mr. Ren has also reassured shareholders that the accusations are unfounded and he is taking necessary actions to set matters straight. We believe that the selldown on Yangzijiang seems overdone. Valuation has fallen to an attractive 6x FY14F PE and 1.0x P/BV following the knee-jerk reaction to the news last Friday, presenting buying opportunities for investors who remain positive on Yangzijiang' s fundamentals. Maintain BUY, target price S$1.55.

matrixxx ( Date: 03-Jun-2014 19:46) Posted:

Yangzijiang (YJZ): OCBC downgrades the stock to a Hold rating and lowered TP to $1.04 (from $1.26), following Chinese news reports that Yangzijiang Shipbuilding?s (YZJ) Chairman, Mr. Ren Yuanlin, has been accused of illegal activities by Tianjin Guoheng Railway Holding (Tianjin). This development means that a protracted battle may weigh on the sentiment of the stock. More importantly, this development only goes to show the difficulty in controlling companies that may land on YZJ?s plate in the future by virtue of its financing business. Based on the TP, house ascribed a 0.5x P/B on YZJ?s held-to-maturity assets.

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03-Jun-2014 07:23

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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Dear matrixxx,

Are you suggesting that the forumer are lacking of knowledge, SMRT are being investigated for insider trading this is only happening recently just last week, but your post are prising the company performance have being hidden in your post the investigation of insider trade. Are your intension to invide people to buy up your share when the insider trading really happen and the share price plunge. but in Yangzijiang the news is not even related to the componay sales, marketing, insider trade, you slamp like it is happening, talking about loss of confidence and posting a false imaging the idea is very clear for normal thinker I believe.

matrixxx ( Date: 03-Jun-2014 01:57) Posted:

Nothing is crazy. Stock goes up, stock comes down, stock go sideway. All is normal.

The not normal is there is always 2 side of a coin.

Meaning to say:

a. To those shortsellers or want to buy cheaper: yes, very likely will drop to 40 cents

b. To those bullish longers or holding shares at high price: yes, very likely this share will go up to $2 despite bad news.

So, see which side you are on and if u like point a, u agree with that. And if you like point b, u can agree with point b. It' s so simple.

This is so good as both statement can satisfy both shortists or buyers. Just tell them what they like or love to hear, and they will be very happy to trade.

But in fact deep down their souls, they know what they experiencing as either they are making real $$ or losing it by choosing buy or sell.

Think the key point here is mainly on " the lost of confidence" , which is the most important since this is one of the main reason why people buy their shares other than buying because of good earnings profitability.

Too big to fail doesn' t apply to this counter anymore, adding that she is a super duper S-chip.

Let' s hopefully not they will dig out more shading deals out of it or special audit like eratat to see if the " real" cash is there in the bank.

Finally, trade with care. there is no smoke without fire. For the case of SMRT, good news will trigger her to go up, up and up.

For the case of YZJ, if more bad news will trigger her to go down, down and down.

Just as Jesse Livemore always said, Buy rising stocks, sell falling stocks, and that is really the way to trade.

moneycow ( Date: 03-Jun-2014 01:05) Posted:

The way it falls is crazy. scarry. Many times its not the actual problem , its the people. The panicky lots. One sell lower than others scared if they don' t sell it will become lower. The panickig syndrome makes them cannot think straight.

BUT fact is and its a sad fact. When people like that starts selling lower, it falls crazy low. When you look at it, its unbelivable.

BUT its understandable that when one holding the shares heard really bad news, and they see one selling lower than others , they panic they also sell at the next lowest. SO it become a chain reaction. When you look at the price, it fell more than 20 steps. more than 10 cents - every steps down is $0.005

That was what happen. People ho are more relax ait to scoop at recent reord low.

A price like a miracle buy. when you look at the time just before the sell down in the later morning it was still strong at 1.135 then the wave.............negative waves of selling..........like earth quake suddenly happen.

For YZJ it was not the first time the scarry sudden fall. Very unpredictable.

At one time when it was 1.15, suddenly plunge to 1.05 for no reason............then there was no bad news, price went back up fast.but the thing is , sudden drastic fall happens epecially to YZJ.

Recently its just sudden fall................hardly have time where it suddenly chiong high high............

BUT how the news would further effect the stock price. No one really knows, Some ppl will try to cause panic, making use of the situation to spread news that scare people into thinking negative so they sell. When they do sell lower one after another, this vouchers will scope..........

Its a game of fear - some fear fgactor involves. When one have that fear experience , its very real, hand shake, head shake.........cannot even type the correct figure to sell. When the correct figures are eventually typed, the asking goes down further.

It was like that. Hopefully things can get better.

Just hope.

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02-Jun-2014 20:03

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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Attached my work FYI.

cheongsl ( Date: 02-Jun-2014 19:55) Posted:

Yup! long time no see... Fundamentally there are no reason for me to release, today pick up some more at $1.05.

Oldbird ( Date: 02-Jun-2014 07:59) Posted:

Hello Cheong, long time no see..

These are my views:

YZJ stock price will be under pressured till the dust is settled which will take some times

The solid book orders n delivery can not be fake.. This company wont die even Ren quit under the worst case.

Accordingly all their lending business are fully morgate backed n generally are with personal guarantee.

As a investor, we can look to buy more if our exposure is bearable... If not, reduce exposure or take some chips off table?come back when we have clearer picture

Cheers guys

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02-Jun-2014 19:55

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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Yup! long time no see... Fundamentally there are no reason for me to release, today pick up some more at $1.05.

Oldbird ( Date: 02-Jun-2014 07:59) Posted:

cheongsl ( Date: 02-Jun-2014 06:52) Posted:

I don' t have crystal ball, and I don' t play god, so what make you think that it will be below $1 this week, if it does not. I don' t like to tell people you can do A and follow by B. because if both event are 50% chances of happening then you are actually betting on 25% chance event will follow what you think.

If I believe the stock is good, why should I sell in the first place. What make the confident to buy the stock when it go lower?

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02-Jun-2014 06:52

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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jj7007 ( Date: 01-Jun-2014 12:42) Posted:

But u can be smart, sell and buy back cheaper.

U could have sold at 1.065 and buy back at 1.005. U earn 6% in 2 hrs.

U can even buy back next week below $1. The $1 will not hold, and we may see 97c at opening and test 95.5c.

My view is we will see 90c being tested, especially with instituitional investors dumping.

cheongsl ( Date: 01-Jun-2014 07:40) Posted:

To short seller there is every possiblility to create fear, I will not sell my portion as there is no reason for this panic.

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01-Jun-2014 07:45

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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I will plan to get in more if the price further drop.

cheongsl ( Date: 01-Jun-2014 07:40) Posted:

To short seller there is every possiblility to create fear, I will not sell my portion as there is no reason for this panic.

KepoChicken ( Date: 31-May-2014 22:28) Posted:

Possible o not... 0.40 cents?

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01-Jun-2014 07:40

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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To short seller there is every possiblility to create fear, I will not sell my portion as there is no reason for this panic.

KepoChicken ( Date: 31-May-2014 22:28) Posted:

Possible o not... 0.40 cents?

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31-May-2014 16:07

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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There is such possibility, if it is an intend short sell act they would need to act fast to avoid the moment when fear is gone and still can' t cover up, some of this huge volume is possible the act of short sell and cover up in the same day...

Or maybe is the intend act of BB to clear off those fearfull followers that prevent the share from moving up further, whenever the BB try to move up the price they saw sell volume accumulate on top. so they just try to kill the weak holder by shorting the price down to create fear and start buyback when the fear continue to have more bullet to push the price even higher...

There are so many possibility in the stock market...But the only winner in the stock market is the one the earn the money from it, there is no different between BB or retail investor....

edwinjup ( Date: 31-May-2014 14:57) Posted:

My broker shorted already covered back within the same hour.....

BMW320 ( Date: 31-May-2014 14:55) Posted:

YZJ will issue the reply to SGX prior market open trading on monday (most probably mins before trading start). Be prepared to cover back for those who shorted. Thats all i hve to say :-

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08-Jan-2014 20:15

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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call me again!

ascend88 ( Date: 08-Jan-2014 16:39) Posted:

gentlemen ....i want to say 1 word....

CHEONG AH !!!!

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19-Dec-2013 21:57

CapitaLand / Capitaland

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today shortiest reduce to 24%, but still consider quite high

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19-Dec-2013 07:13

CapitaLand / Capitaland

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You just check the SGX more then 40% are short seller, for the pass few days. As mention previously, there is no interest to push up the price until collection was complete, but when will it complete nobody know.

seanpent ( Date: 18-Dec-2013 10:07) Posted:

guess many shorted this

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14-Dec-2013 02:31

CapitaLand / Capitaland

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Your logic is very strange.

1. Don't know where to invest its cash??? Capitaland stop it investment in all area and solely focus at share buyback?? Is this what your idea???

2. Wasting money on buyback ???? Are you more in picture how capitaland investment and future development and how much tangible net asset compare to current share price, if you are not, then where is your justification for wasting of money???

3. Money raised from right issue was at much lower price then $2??? The recent rights issue is for Ascott Reits, the price of Ascott Reits price is only around $1 plus, if it is going to issue rights at > $2 then do you think the subscription rate will be 163% oversubscrip. Rights are usually raised at a much lower premium to attract investor. Base on the subscription rate it is sure that investor stil very much confident with the future development for Ascott Reits.

Belteshazzar ( Date: 13-Dec-2013 09:16) Posted:

dunno where to invest its cash...

wasting $ on buyback dont forget $ raised from right issue was @ much lower price < 2

WanSiTong ( Date: 11-Dec-2013 22:05) Posted:

BUYBACK OF 1 MILLION SHARES today @ $2.965

total cumulative purchase : 5.554 mil

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13-Dec-2013 06:23

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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BDI sail into the dept ocean reaching 2337.

ascend88 ( Date: 10-Dec-2013 23:02) Posted:

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +54 2237

ascend88 ( Date: 06-Dec-2013 22:23) Posted:

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +31 2176

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