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Someone is collecting. This when stopped, price down? Still greedy for safe bet at 32
JMS213 ( Date: 28-Oct-2014 09:18) Posted:
Maybe someone can help. SInce the value of the stock is deem attractive, there will be investor who will want to buy, however there is a force that refuse to let the price goes up.
So the force that try to curb any movement up will sell to bring down the price. No wonder, Leongsan said " everyday cannot be el nino" ... that' s just an excuse.
Therefore now is the time to buy.
Equilibrium is positive
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Mano and star, it was mentioned in this forum have large holdings. Wonder if they are still in,
I will wait and see to buy as cheap as possible. Every day cannot be el nino.
I agree " rather frustrated and dissatisfied with the free warrants given to Carlyle Group. Investors are not stupid, they know that CF is cheap" ........also a cheap operator with lousy investors relations and somewhat lacking in goveranence. The reasons they gave for Caryle warrants were lame and more of a joke, The Copeinca loan issues, badly handled, almost clownish. Bad investors relations oe what?
SLPY69 ( Date: 26-Oct-2014 23:29) Posted:
Bro, don&rsquo t think investors are excited but rather frustrated and dissatisfied with the free warrants given to Carlyle Group. Investors are not stupid, they know that CF is cheap. Investors confronted the management, why the rest of the investors are not given the warrants &hellip . ? If it is expensive who would want to fight or contest the decision of the board &hellip .
You think Global Thematic is stupid throw ~ $20,000,000 into CF
TL has mentioned &ldquo Why are they silence with regard to the solicitation issue ? The company is unlikely to ignore frustrated investors forever. They have to show financial discipline and be responsive. They need to give an update to the investors.&rdquo
Stop flirting with the media on the solicitation matters. You are paying big money to the team to get the job done.
If they continue to use their % in the company to overwrite the retailer investors, they may have to account for their action.
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small float cut both ways. Fast to go up fast to go down.Funds dump no daylight. Rush hit through the roof.
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I am worried and confused over the latest report of Imarpe. I just dont understand why the biomass is so low at 1,42 when a few months ago wat healthy at above 8, and they caught very little. The fish must go somewhere and last season reports of high juvenile? Ok we will know later as there is another report coming. Chile fish ok?
I have been going through CF last qtr accounts very carefully. I suspect this qtr as the last qtr of their financial year, they could report bumper profits in excess of 100m. I think that is why the funds are buying.
A few more weeks will tell. Problem now is buy or not, Been waiting for 32 but someone is not letting it fall.
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Holders over 1000,000 shares are the sellers no retailers. See shareholders makeup in latest AR.Better wait till the tide turn.
bishan22 ( Date: 18-Oct-2014 06:34) Posted:
Ebola is killing olam. Waiting like a vulture for the right timing.
bishan22 ( Date: 17-Oct-2014 09:38) Posted:
Moving to my magic number 2.
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Very small free float. Good go up quick.......bad no bottom.
Watching watching watching.
Those shouting?........... share and be honest. lol
EZ3626 ( Date: 10-Oct-2014 13:43) Posted:
Kamsai, ... my alert tell me, ai lai liao .... today strong sell. I think this is worrisome for the anchovy quota over and on top of the EN. It is time to watch how the fish develop .... ummph.
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| 2014-10-07 19:39:19.0 Imarpe |
IMARPE recommended to the Ministry of Production (Produce) suspended maintain extraction anchoveta in northern and central Peruvian coast, due to the eruption of hot water are affecting the biomass of this resource.
Following a two-month study in the areas mentioned, Imarpe specialists concluded that the presence of abnormal environmental conditions in the Peruvian sea, manifested through the entry of large masses of warm water and warm ocean waters (Kelvin waves) has caused a decrease in production of anchovy.
According Imarpe detailed, high frequency of hot water has generated a cumulative effect on the oceanographic properties of the Peruvian sea. With this extension of coastal habitat, decreased fertility and also significantly affected the phytoplankton biomass.
" This scenario has it caused a significant decrease in anchovy biomass, below the stock in recent years," he said.
In that sense, the institution IMARPE advised to continue the suspension of anchovy catches in the north-central coast region until environmental conditions normalize and the stock recovers.
Imarpe also said it has scheduled intensify supervision of environmental conditions on the coast and said that a new cruise
in the last week of this month will take place and then give the results to Produce.
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Qanghoo ( Date: 10-Oct-2014 08:49) Posted:
65% chance of a weak EN developing between Oct-Dec 14, lasting into early 2015. Coincide with Peru' s second anchovy fishing season? If happens, likely to impact CP' s profits for FY 15.
EL NIÑ O/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 October 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niñ o Watch
Synopsis: El Niñ o is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.
During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niñ o indices were relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month, with values ranging from +0.3° C (Niñ o-3.4) to +1.1° C (Niñ o-1+2) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º -100º W) was also minimal (Fig. 3) due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Equatorial low-level winds were largely near average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue to arise. Upper-level winds were also close to average for the month. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, and rainfall was near average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of ENSO-neutral.
Most models predict El Niñ o to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niñ o during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niñ o will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niñ o-3.4 index between 0.5° C and 0.9° C) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niñ o is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
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More interesting if you look futher at funds owership
http://quotes.wsj.com/SG/B0Z/company-people
Leongsan ( Date: 09-Oct-2014 09:43) Posted:
Global Thematic Partners LLC
as of 29 Aug 2014
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44.07m |
2.15% |
See they only built up their stake recently.
I wonder how often SGX update their figures.
Leongsan ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 11:02) Posted:
Global Thematic Partners, LLC at june only about 11m I just gave you the Aug fig. You can get info of GTP on fundsupermarket hk.
These are the collectors
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Global Thematic Partners LLC
as of 29 Aug 2014
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44.07m |
2.15% |
See they only built up their stake recently.
I wonder how often SGX update their figures.
Leongsan ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 11:02) Posted:
Global Thematic Partners, LLC at june only about 11m I just gave you the Aug fig. You can get info of GTP on fundsupermarket hk.
These are the collectors
EZ3626 ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 10:55) Posted:
Can be found on SGX site. Curious when JMS said take a look who are the top 5 owners. At first thought what is the no big deal about Global Thematic Partners. Interesting to know what is Thematic Investment ... something new to me. Will wait for further downside / opportunity before going in.
| Top 5 owners by shares held |
Number of shares held |
Percent of shares held |
| Super Investment Ltd |
1,426,432,850 |
69.71% |
| The Carlyle Group LP |
227,027,028 |
11.09% |
| Global Thematic Partners, LLC |
51,825,124 |
2.53% |
| Pacific Andes International Holdings Ltd. |
16,538,074 |
0.81% |
| Nomura Holdings Inc, Securities & Investment Arm |
16,242,624 |
0.79%
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to which you deduct ,,,,,,,,,,, Global Thematic Partners did take up a substantial amount in CF ... 2.53%.........????????
Caryle took warrants??????
JMS213 ( Date: 08-Oct-2014 15:53) Posted:
Leongsan, you right. It is under Pacific Andes Resources Development Ltd, total 70.51%. If we consider TOP 20, we are left with a float of ~ 8% ... crazy
Equilibrium is Positive
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| Pacific Andes International Holdings Ltd. |
16,538,074 |
This already in last years accounts. Not a new addition
As recorded in the Register of Substantial Shareholders)
| |
Direct Interests |
Deemed Interests |
| Substantial Shareholders |
No. of Shares |
% |
No. of Shares |
% |
| Super Investment Limited |
1,426,432,850 |
69.71 |
- |
- |
| Zhonggang Fisheries Limited (1) |
- |
- |
1,426,432,850 |
69.71 |
| Golden Target Pacific Limited (1) |
16,538,074 |
0.81 |
1,426,432,850 |
69.71 |
| Richtown Development Limited (1) |
- |
- |
1,442,970,924 |
70.51 |
| Pacific Andes Resources Development Limited (1) |
- |
- |
1,442,970,924 |
70.51 |
| CAP III-A Limited |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
- |
- |
| CAP III Fund Limited (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
| Carlyle Asia Partners III, L.P. (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
| CAP III General Partners, L.P. (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
| CAP III Ltd. (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
TC Group Cayman Investment
Holdings Sub, L.P. (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
| |
Direct Interests |
Deemed Interests |
| Substantial Shareholders |
No. of Shares |
% |
No. of Shares |
% |
| TC Group Cayman Investment Holdings, L.P. (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
| Carlyle Holdings II L.P. (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
| Carlyle Holdings II GP L.L.C. (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
| The Carlyle Group L.P. (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
| Carlyle Group Management L.L.C. (2) |
- |
- |
227,027,028 |
11.09 |
JMS213 ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 11:41) Posted:
Apparently, it is from SGX .... see what EZ has posted.
My understanding it has to be above 5% before they have to make the announcement.
They have been accumulation while the rest are selling.
EZ3626 ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 10:55) Posted:
Can be found on SGX site. Curious when JMS said take a look who are the top 5 owners. At first thought what is the no big deal about Global Thematic Partners. Interesting to know what is Thematic Investment ... something new to me. Will wait for further downside / opportunity before going in.
| Top 5 owners by shares held |
Number of shares held |
Percent of shares held |
| Super Investment Ltd |
1,426,432,850 |
69.71% |
| The Carlyle Group LP |
227,027,028 |
11.09% |
| Global Thematic Partners, LLC |
51,825,124 |
2.53% |
| Pacific Andes International Holdings Ltd. |
16,538,074 |
0.81% |
| Nomura Holdings Inc, Securities & Investment Arm |
16,242,624 |
0.79%
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Pacific Andes 0.81% from " 0" you sure? not announced?
JMS213 ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 11:10) Posted:
Haha ... now you know. There is another piece of info that you missed out.
Super Investment, Calyle Group, Nomura holdings no change 69.71%, 11.09 and 0.79% respectively.
The change is Global Thematic 2.53% and Pacific Andes 0.81% from " 0" . The float is going to be even lesser, together they hold 84.93%.
Ez, you should consider buying .... Equilibrium is Positive
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Global Thematic Partners, LLC at june only about 11m I just gave you the Aug fig. You can get info of GTP on fundsupermarket hk.
These are the collectors
EZ3626 ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 10:55) Posted:
Can be found on SGX site. Curious when JMS said take a look who are the top 5 owners. At first thought what is the no big deal about Global Thematic Partners. Interesting to know what is Thematic Investment ... something new to me. Will wait for further downside / opportunity before going in.
| Top 5 owners by shares held |
Number of shares held |
Percent of shares held |
| Super Investment Ltd |
1,426,432,850 |
69.71% |
| The Carlyle Group LP |
227,027,028 |
11.09% |
| Global Thematic Partners, LLC |
51,825,124 |
2.53% |
| Pacific Andes International Holdings Ltd. |
16,538,074 |
0.81% |
| Nomura Holdings Inc, Securities & Investment Arm |
16,242,624 |
0.79%
|
Leongsan ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 10:43) Posted:
Can you please share how you got that?
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Global Thematic Partners LLC
as of 29 Aug 2014
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44.07m |
2.15% |
Leongsan ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 10:43) Posted:
Can you please share how you got that?
EZ3626 ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 09:56) Posted:
There are Global Thematic Partners holding 51,825,124 (2.53%) and Nomura Holdings 16,242,624 (0.79%)
TOP 5 remain the same, except Global Thematic Partners holding 51,825,124 (2.53%).
Global Thematic Partners, LLC (" GTP" ) is an independent investment management firm with offices in New York and London. Our singular focus is thematic investment, a powerful approach that we have refined over many years to anticipate and capitalize on discontinuity and change around the world. We believe that big shifts in economics, social science and &ndash above all &ndash natural science are highly non-linear developments seeking inflection points and uncovering hidden optionality are hallmarks of our investment process. We couple thorough and independent research with risk management to seek long-term value creation for our clients.
What is the big change ? Unless there is a big change else will stay out. I have been holding for the longest time for this s^k before releasing. Hahaha ... not sure how long it is going to maintain at this level ?
Both W s^k have touched the bottom and going up. Woah woah woah .... enjoy your wait .... cheers
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Can you please share how you got that?
EZ3626 ( Date: 07-Oct-2014 09:56) Posted:
There are Global Thematic Partners holding 51,825,124 (2.53%) and Nomura Holdings 16,242,624 (0.79%)
TOP 5 remain the same, except Global Thematic Partners holding 51,825,124 (2.53%).
Global Thematic Partners, LLC (" GTP" ) is an independent investment management firm with offices in New York and London. Our singular focus is thematic investment, a powerful approach that we have refined over many years to anticipate and capitalize on discontinuity and change around the world. We believe that big shifts in economics, social science and &ndash above all &ndash natural science are highly non-linear developments seeking inflection points and uncovering hidden optionality are hallmarks of our investment process. We couple thorough and independent research with risk management to seek long-term value creation for our clients.
What is the big change ? Unless there is a big change else will stay out. I have been holding for the longest time for this s^k before releasing. Hahaha ... not sure how long it is going to maintain at this level ?
Both W s^k have touched the bottom and going up. Woah woah woah .... enjoy your wait .... cheers
JMS213 ( Date: 03-Oct-2014 08:46) Posted:
You may want to take a look who are the Top 5 shareholders in CF other than Pacific and Carlyle Group.
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How do we know what hides beneath nominees
JMS213 ( Date: 03-Oct-2014 08:46) Posted:
You may want to take a look who are the Top 5 shareholders in CF other than Pacific and Carlyle Group.
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This is interesting.Maybe Moody knows something that we do not. Maybe CF made a huge profit this 4th qtr that cash flow loan repayment schedule no an issue.
You must not think Copeinca bond holders stupid. They got first charge over 1 billon $ of permits,
Dont forget the Clubs loans, DBS also in.
mano name not in top 20 shareholders?
Still waiting for pull back. Maybe will never reach 32 last low, But collection is not much now? How to go up on hot air?
stockpicker ( Date: 01-Oct-2014 09:32) Posted:
What happened to the Moody guy? Said consider to downgrade CF when cannot get Copeinca' s bond holders' agreement. Now no pic no sound.
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The problem with palm oil is that Indonesia production is uncontrolled and also lots of suggled exports non payment of cess etc.El nino price on Palm oil? trouble being lots of excess oil stocks from short term crops. Maybe both Malaysia and Indonesia got to burn more for disel and power plant.
For anchovy Peru , el nino problem is not the absent of fish but rather protection laws that stop the industrial boats from caching nearer shore where the fish goes because of warmer seas.
someone is collecting CF.Chart experts comments ?
Qanghoo ( Date: 27-Sep-2014 18:58) Posted:
From the following monthly update, which I forgot to check before writing my email below, the chance of an EN is 60-65% and it calls for a weak EN. The same site had earlier predicted a 70% chance of an EN (if I recall correctly). Anyway, this keeps us aware that an EN is a distinct possibility and may have some negative impact on CF and PA' s results. On the other hand, it is likely to have a positive effect on palm oil stocks in the later part of the year and into 2015.
EL NIÑ O/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
4 September 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niñ o Watch
Synopsis: The chance of El Niñ o is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
During August 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the
equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niñ o indices warmed during the month with values of +0.5° C in
Niñ o-4, +0.4° C in Niñ o-3.4, +0.4° C in Niñ o-3, and +0.8° C in Niñ o-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content
anomalies (averaged between 180º -100º W) also increased during the month (Fig. 3) as above-average
subsurface temperatures developed across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). This
warming is associated with the downwelling phase of an equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave triggered in July
by low-level westerly wind anomalies. Westerly wind anomalies continued in the central and eastern part
of the basin early in August, but weakened by the end of the month. Enhanced easterly upper-level wind
anomalies have prevailed during much of the month, and the Southern Oscillation Index has been
negative. However, convective cloudiness remained generally near average over most of the region,
except for below average cloudiness observed across the central and western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of
a coherent atmospheric El Niñ o pattern and near-average SSTs in the central Pacific indicate a
continuation of ENSO-neutral.
Most of the models continue to predict El Niñ o to develop during September-November and to
continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El
Niñ o. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niñ o to emerge during September-October
and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niñ o-3.4 index
between 0.5° C and 0.9° C). The chance of El Niñ o is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and
winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
stockpicker ( Date: 27-Sep-2014 15:57) Posted:
Think it was said that El-Nino was behind us in July with a prediction that it would come back in October. Now it is 50%-60% sure about October El-Nino and not that it dropped from 70% to 60% and probability decreasing.
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Heard they are going into prawn farming PADev.
Any truth? Boh Fish prawn also good? lol
Leongsan ( Date: 19-Sep-2014 11:09) Posted:
Down grade. Only angmoh style and Institution investors bother with this. I wonder if price will go down and really are there any Institution investors beside Caryle?
stockpicker ( Date: 19-Sep-2014 08:50) Posted:
Deadline passed, No resolution. No one now believe in them. Will get downgraded again.
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Down grade. Only angmoh style and Institution investors bother with this. I wonder if price will go down and really are there any Institution investors beside Caryle?
stockpicker ( Date: 19-Sep-2014 08:50) Posted:
Deadline passed, No resolution. No one now believe in them. Will get downgraded again.
stockpicker ( Date: 18-Sep-2014 13:35) Posted:
Dead line 18 Sept 5:00 pm NY time or our time 19 Sept 5:00am.. postpone again?
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