ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Good closing compare to yesterday. Especially since there was attempt to sell down this morning to below $0.51. Volume remain healthy. Long holders can be cautiously optimistic.

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We have to decide for ourselves. Personally, I just put it out there for reference purpose to look back myself sometime later, study and examine my own thoughts processes and actions taken. Thus far, my bottomline is that I won' t add till my outright average price is above $0.375.

hokpin ( Date: 14-Feb-2025 16:23) Posted:

So now every retreat presents a buying opportunity?

HVRRVH ( Date: 14-Feb-2025 14:44) Posted:

Added a bit just because I am curious who is selling, also based on technical, as the price didn' t retreat big like the 2 occasions on 10 June and 7 Oct after big move up. In those 2 times, the price corrected down about 10% after reaching then high of $0.365 and $0.445 respectively. This morning I saw there was attempts to sell down to $0.51 but it seems the bulls came back and put up defence at $0.52 for now. Decided to join the bull and added a bit and the seller once again was ABN. I think they must be trading this counter by buying and selling at all price range. Let' s see whether sellers are aiming to push price down below $0.50 or not before results release.

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Added a bit just because I am curious who is selling, also based on technical, as the price didn' t retreat big like the 2 occasions on 10 June and 7 Oct after big move up. In those 2 times, the price corrected down about 10% after reaching then high of $0.365 and $0.445 respectively. This morning I saw there was attempts to sell down to $0.51 but it seems the bulls came back and put up defence at $0.52 for now. Decided to join the bull and added a bit and the seller once again was ABN. I think they must be trading this counter by buying and selling at all price range. Let' s see whether sellers are aiming to push price down below $0.50 or not before results release.

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No cause for celebration yet but long holders can feel a sense of vindication, just look at the other YZJF threads to see where am I coming from. I am sure many long holders especially those vested since day 1 and accumulated slowly with the prices going down would say to themsleves that luckily they have conviction in their investment thesis and have ignored all the naysayers, whom comments at times bodering on ridiculing long holders. Anyway price just trying to crack 53 cents and now I begin to wonder is the market preparing for yield compression or market sees that YZJF will declare higher profits and hence, higher dividend? It has to be either one and it is more liley a combination of both cos with the persistent high interest rate environment, a risk free US bond can now yield at least 4% easily acorss all duration, from 2 to 10 years. Therefore, a YZJF 5% dividend yield may not be attractive. A 5% is about 2.65 cents based on 53 cens share price. If market deem 5.5% to 6% is the going rate, then the dividend will be at least 3 cents based on 53 cents share price. In any case, just stay tuned to find out soon.

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Yes. Next resistance 54.5 and I hope to see it get tested before results release. Nevertheless, solid business growth plus earning visiblity is key and hopefully the recent price movements is the indicatoin that everything is on track.

HVRRVH ( Date: 31-Jan-2025 12:04) Posted:

Finally see some buffer with this latest round of price surge. Personally holding 33% paper gain and 7% realised gain thru dividends, total 40% realised and unrealised gain. It is still a long race but would just like to put thing in perspective as some coxx sure forumers would have you believed this is a 20 cents stock. That alone is ok but some of them went to such extend to ridicule long holders calling them all kind of names. Now let' s get back to YZJF, today it \broke resistance 46 with small gap up and not sure whether it will reverse to test the gap or not as prices seems more interested to consolidate at 47.5 - 48. If so, prices could move fast to next resistance at 54.5 soon. This make the upcoming results interesting because any out sized earnings would propel the share prices more aggressively to the up side. We wait with abated breath.

vicloo ( Date: 31-Jan-2025 11:49) Posted:

For those who hold since IPO time, after 2+ years of holding we are finally back to near IPO price.

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The key takeaway and relevant message for YZJF' s long holders is right at the end of the article, which I reproduced here for ease of reference:

&ldquo To be paid a very high-dividend yield, while waiting for [a] catalyst, is a pretty good trade,&rdquo said Hsu.

HVRRVH ( Date: 11-Feb-2025 12:32) Posted:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/11/chinese-companies-could-see-another-year-of-record-dividend-payouts.html?utm_content=Intl& utm_medium=social& utm_source=facebook%7CIntl& fbclid=IwY2xjawIXsdVleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHXKbxcstvF3MfdeG_WOblfj_ggd_GT894jW4L3MN1Gabon9RRJMjdjo3dw_aem_a71XADKM8Scl1luYtPMoFg

YZJF does have positions in some listed and unlisted Chinese companies.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/11/chinese-companies-could-see-another-year-of-record-dividend-payouts.html?utm_content=Intl& utm_medium=social& utm_source=facebook%7CIntl& fbclid=IwY2xjawIXsdVleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHXKbxcstvF3MfdeG_WOblfj_ggd_GT894jW4L3MN1Gabon9RRJMjdjo3dw_aem_a71XADKM8Scl1luYtPMoFg

YZJF does have positions in some listed and unlisted Chinese companies.

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In 1 trading day the 12m sell q at 48c was gone. However, today' s volume transacted at 48c was only 3.7m, therefore, there were at least 8 to 9 m sell q at 48c on Friday was false queue. BBs have been repeat and rinse this type of pattern at all price range, now they are doing it again at 48.5, parking ostensibly big sell q but who know by afternoon or tomorrow or don' t know when this 48.5c sell q will disappear too. BBs don' t want the price to run away, they are happily queuing at bid price for sellers to sell down but it seems that if there is enough volume at ask price, they will not hesitate to eat up too like this morning 48.5c ask q kena makan rapidly. Don' t know what set of results YZJF is going to unlease for the upcoming results announcement but price actions really augur well for long holders.

pkli899 ( Date: 07-Feb-2025 13:33) Posted:

Aiyo, 48c sell q increased from opening 10m to current 12m.
Somebody determine to keep price in check.

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With persistent high interest rate environment, it is likely that market would demand at least a 5% yield more so for a young company like YZJF albeit in fact, YZJF can considereed to be a company with track records dating back to pre spin off day. Shareholders can expect at least 2.5 cents with share price at 48 cents, giving a yield of about 5.2%. I suspect this is a very likely scenario but of course nothing is certain. For share price to appreciate further beyond the current 48 cents, YZJF must declare dividend higher than 2.5 cents and this could be tough unlcess market decide to rerate the company based on, for example, better earning visibility or growth etc. However, it will be unimaginable if the management presents a set of results that make the share price go reverse. Purely from reading the price movement, it augur well that the uncoming results and dividends should meet market expectations and market has so far factored in the base share price of 48 cents.

HVRRVH ( Date: 01-Feb-2025 14:10) Posted:

Recent price movements is the sign that the upcoming results should be a vastly improve one, especially if the price challenge 50 cents and above from now till results release, which is expected to be by end of February. Hope to see at least 2.5 cents dividend and share price establishing firm base at 50 cents or higher. The very first SBB is 51 cents so it would be a good sign if share price hit above that level and we see that SBB is being conducted at 51 cents and or higher level. The management has demonstrated for the past couple of years that they would defence the share price if it hit a level that is too undervalued, that is 51 cents before business mandate to Maritime sector so we can expect management to take action post result release if share price is stagnant and does not reflect the company' s value. Though the picture seems postive, the geopolitical tensions and anti Chinese sentiment from the West still cannot be ignored. In China, tthe Western countries are finding scapegoat or excuses for whatever shortcoming they are facing but investors shouldn' t be scared or foolded by the Western propanganda. Since the 90s, Western media have been running headlines suggesting the demise of China ecomomy on yearly basis [those interested can google] but China has been through countless crisis and each time emerge stronger. It is a balance that YZJF' s long term portfolio aim to be 50/50 within and outside China.

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Sometimes I look at simple metric. Last year dividend 2.2 cents with share price hugging 35 cents for the longest time and that gave us the yield of 6.28%. If the share price remain 48 cents, a 6.28% yield will suggest a dividend of 3 cents. If market decide to give some premium and compress the yield due to better business growth visibility etc and give a 5% yield, then many room for share price upside. We shall see.

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Recent price movements is the sign that the upcoming results should be a vastly improve one, especially if the price challenge 50 cents and above from now till results release, which is expected to be by end of February. Hope to see at least 2.5 cents dividend and share price establishing firm base at 50 cents or higher. The very first SBB is 51 cents so it would be a good sign if share price hit above that level and we see that SBB is being conducted at 51 cents and or higher level. The management has demonstrated for the past couple of years that they would defence the share price if it hit a level that is too undervalued, that is 51 cents before business mandate to Maritime sector so we can expect management to take action post result release if share price is stagnant and does not reflect the company' s value. Though the picture seems postive, the geopolitical tensions and anti Chinese sentiment from the West still cannot be ignored. In China, tthe Western countries are finding scapegoat or excuses for whatever shortcoming they are facing but investors shouldn' t be scared or foolded by the Western propanganda. Since the 90s, Western media have been running headlines suggesting the demise of China ecomomy on yearly basis [those interested can google] but China has been through countless crisis and each time emerge stronger. It is a balance that YZJF' s long term portfolio aim to be 50/50 within and outside China.

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The worse of ths type of people is that they said siok only, never short, never do anything. That is still ok but they didn' t offer any analysis to back their calls, no value add. Said siok only with aim of antaganising long holders, who put real money to work, to invest. That' s why they are irritating if not, all type of views are welcome.

stonkmaster ( Date: 31-Jan-2025 13:27) Posted:

Some clowns were even crying for price to drop to 20 cents. Wonder where are they now.

HVRRVH ( Date: 31-Jan-2025 12:11) Posted:

I remember somone said 49 cents cash per share is not really cash, this is despite the company put it very clearly the 49 cents is cash or cash equivalent. We were around sahre price of 32 - 35 cents at that time. In fact, it would be amusing to look through the comments made by some forumers in those time.

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I remember somone said 49 cents cash per share is not really cash, this is despite the company put it very clearly the 49 cents is cash or cash equivalent. We were around sahre price of 32 - 35 cents at that time. In fact, it would be amusing to look through the comments made by some forumers in those time.

salim88 ( Date: 31-Jan-2025 10:06) Posted:

YZJ Financial Holdings (YZJF) .... one of the best risk/ reward opportunities I have seen for SGX Stocks

The Opportunity

A Singapore investment company listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) operating very much like a fund structure that invests in debt and equity securities. It is trading at $0.45 while its net cash is $0.49 and NAV is $1.11. In other words, you pay the current market price $0.45 per share, you get $0.49 of cash + $0.62 worth or debt and equity securities. A rare Benjamin Graham' s Net-Net value investing opportunity in a company with a great historical track record + fast improving business fundamentals.

The technical chart is extremely bullish with the recent breaking of a 2 year downtrend + multiple subsequent upside breakouts and a very strong momentum vs the general market. Its relatively high daily short interest (sometimes as high as 30-50% of daily volume) serves as a potential upside force in short covering. Remember the Gamestop (GME) Saga back in 2021?

The Company

YZJF was previously operating under Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJS) investing capital generated from its main shipbuilding business. It was carved out from the successful and well-run YZJS, distributed in-specie to its shareholders and listed on SGX in 2022.

Its principal activity is investing its own capital, seeking capital appreciation and investment income from investments in both public and private companies, funds and debt investments. It also provides wealth management and fund management services but the revenues from these 2 businesses are minimal or non-existent.

Its AUM is 50-50% split between China and Singapore, deployed in cash management products (42%) , debt investments (37%), Equity (12%) and Maritime investments (8%). It is progressively reducing its weightage in China and deploying into maritime-related investments and credit funds in Southeast Asia, particularly Singapore

Why does this mispricing opportunity exist?

1. Approximately 50% of its investments are in China, weighed down by the negative China sentiment in the past few years.

2. spinoff listings like YZJF typically suffer from:(1) heavy selling by shareholders (especially institutional investors) whose mandate prohibits them from holding a business different from its mother company (2) a lack of understanding of the business

3. Market participants not giving enough weight to the positive and mitigating factors, which is explained below:

Price has overshot on the downside: The positive and mitigating factors

1. Irrational discount to NAV. Trading below net Cash value!!

- The company has a NAV of $1.11, net cash per share of $0.49 vs share price of $0.45. $0.68 is invested in Debt (37%), Maritime Assets (8%), Equity (12%) while total liabilities is $0.06. It is natural to be very concerned about the value of its current investments and future investments. However, given such a steep discount to its asset value, to the extent of below its net cash level. The risk/ reward is extremely attractive considering:

a) The NAV is derived after loss provisions on its investments

b) The debt investment portfolio is backed by c.50% of loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of collaterals and corporate guarantees

c) At current price of $0.45, It has an annualized earnings yield of 15%, dividend yield of 5% and Share Buy Back yield of 3%

d) YZJF had an excellent investment track record from 2011-21 (see point 2 below)

2. YZJF and its mothership YJZS have an excellent track record in running the business even during tough economic and industry times.

- From 2011-21, when YZJF was operating as YZJS' s investment arm, it has generated an impressive return track record of 9-15% pre-tax ROA.

- Unlike many Chinese companies, YZJS' s Revenue, Earnings have approximately doubled and share price is up 5x from 2020-2024

3. Solid reputation and track record + Positive forward outlook for its business

- In mar 23 YZJF management guided that the worst is likely over for their industry and expects strong growth in maritime fund and maritime investments going forward

- Going forward,YZJF is focused on redeploying more funds into maritime-related investments. Given its entrenched network and deep knowledge in the maritime industry, it is well-equipped to recognize attractive prospects and successfully execute deals in this space. progressively deploying its cash into maritime-related investments and private credit funds in Southeast Asia, particularly in Singapore.

In Jan 25, it ordered 4 product tankers from Jingjiang Nanyang Shipbuilding to be delivered in 2026/27. Current charter rates suggest an annual cashflow yield of 20%. Given the impressive track record and reputation of its mother company + its expertise in debt and securities investments in its sector, its fund management business might take off giving it a new source of fee income

4. . Insiders Buying

- 2 Directors bought in aug23 at $0.36 ~ 1.3mil shares

- Company have been actively buying back shares, 100+ mil shares (approx 3% of outstanding shares) from Jan to Nov 2024

5. Signs of green shoots for Chinese Economy:

- Smart money going long on China equities: Eleven funds have been launched under the Qualified Domestic Limited Partner (QDLP) program this year, which is already higher than any previous year. Fund management heavyweights including Blackstone, Bridgewater Associates, and Oaktree Capital have opened funds in the country this year. Fund managers with a good track record of seeing ahead of the crowd (David Tepper, Michael Burry ) have been buying China equities for the past few quarters. During a BloombergTV interview in Nov24, prominent investor Howard Marks said, " ....comments about China being uninvestable are & ldquo music to my ears,,,, & rdquo

- sentiment on Chinese equities is at one of the lowest points in history and equity prices have significantly hit since 2021 These are typical bullish contrarian signs.

- The Chinese government has introduced various monetary and fiscal stimulus policies to boost the economy

Valuation

As YZJF is very similar to a fund, it should trade near its NAV of $1.11 which generates a current annualized EPS of $0.06 and DPS of $0.022. The EPS is likely to increase once it starts deploying more cash (40+% of AUM ) into higher yielding investments which would also contribute positively to its DPS and NAV growth. The discount to NAV would reduce when the current negative sentiment starts improving.

Conservative Valuation: assuming 50% of all non cash equivalent investments are wiped out (highly unlikely given its NAV has already provided for losses + its strong historical track record + 50% LTV on debt investments)

= Cash & Yield enhancement products + 1/2 the value of all other investments - Total Liabilities

= $0.49 + 0.5 ( $0.68) - $0.06

= $0.77

Hence a reasonable short term Target Price is $0.77 to $1.11. Investing at Current Share price of $0.45 would imply a potential 71- 147% upside and collecting 5 % in annual dividends + 3% returns from Share BuyBacks. This excludes any future improvement on its investment returns and incremental fee income from its fund management business !!!

Potential Catalysts

1. Improvement in its Investment performance and its investment management business

2. More market participants start to realize this irrational discount + the upside potential of the business. Info would spread exponentially resulting in rapid rise in share price

3. Privatization by its mother company YZJS. Buying YZJF at current price while getting cash and securities at NAV implies a 170% return on investment, a very attractive ROI for any fund manager.

Risks

Its current investments and future investments will suffer a loss greater than the current discount to its NAV. A highly unlikely scenario as all its current investments would have to drop to zero plus it has to lose more than 4 cents per share out of the 49 cents per share it currently has.

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Finally see some buffer with this latest round of price surge. Personally holding 33% paper gain and 7% realised gain thru dividends, total 40% realised and unrealised gain. It is still a long race but would just like to put thing in perspective as some coxx sure forumers would have you believed this is a 20 cents stock. That alone is ok but some of them went to such extend to ridicule long holders calling them all kind of names. Now let' s get back to YZJF, today it \broke resistance 46 with small gap up and not sure whether it will reverse to test the gap or not as prices seems more interested to consolidate at 47.5 - 48. If so, prices could move fast to next resistance at 54.5 soon. This make the upcoming results interesting because any out sized earnings would propel the share prices more aggressively to the up side. We wait with abated breath.

vicloo ( Date: 31-Jan-2025 11:49) Posted:

For those who hold since IPO time, after 2+ years of holding we are finally back to near IPO price.

Eyk3000 ( Date: 31-Jan-2025 09:44) Posted:

Your wish has been granted! Hahah

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Well done, wah 200 lots!

ss2017. ( Date: 22-Jan-2025 17:43) Posted:

Last 30 mins even at the matching price I top up 200lots buying at 43c. Don't follow me if you don't believe it. The believe in YZJFH with faith which can fly is a pain in the process. Take care. I hope you will be rewarded handsomely.

finjungle ( Date: 22-Jan-2025 17:33) Posted:

Sir, then you should buy more!

Where ther would be money to be made, one doesn' t need to hear persuasion to buy or believe

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Good timing. Fortune favour the brave

volvo125 ( Date: 02-Jan-2025 18:12) Posted:

@HVRRVH , thank you very much for your sharing on an earlier post on how you got your buying price at 1 bid lower during the market close matching phase. While the chance is probably 50/50, I placed a bid at the higher 0.415 just sec before 17.04pm and managed to get all my 45k fill at 0.41. Very fun to execute and save enough from the spread difference to buy breakfast everyday for 2 months+ of Kaya/butter toast kopi egg breakfast set at Koufu ... ha ha, I learn something new. Thank you.

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Judging from the price action, and if it is sustained till results released, I think long holders can cheer for higher dividend! In slightly more than a month we will know.

HVRRVH ( Date: 23-Jan-2025 10:34) Posted:

While some ' investors' may have lamented the slow pace of appreciation for the share price, YZJF had in fact appreciated 45% for the past 1 year from the 52-week low of $0.305 to hit new 52-week high of $0.45 today. It is now trying to turn previous resistance of $0.445 to support. While the price has appreciated 45% for the past 1 year, meanwhile, it had paid dividend yield of between 5%+ to 6%+ for the past 2 payouts. If YZJF were to maintain the payout yield of 6% for the upcoming dividend, the dividend per share has to be at least 3 cents based on share price of $0.45! If the yield is compressed to 5% with 3 cents dividend payout, the share price will hit $0.60! Now, I for once will not believe that either scenarios will pan out in this coming results, though I have confident that for the long term, this should be achievable. Most likely, the market is working for a scenario of about 5.5% dividend payout with dividend per unit between 2.2 cents to 2.5 cents. So we may see $0.45 resistance to stay for a while but all calculation will be off if somehow, YZJF declare dividend more than 2.5 cents and/or with EPS somehow hitting at least 7.5 cents for the year.

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With the benefit of hindsight, I have to say I am happy that it got ' demolished' after spin off, or else wouldn' t be able to get average holding price of about $0.358, without factoring in dividends. Imagine it stay $0.69 and move to $1.01 from spin off till now which is a similar 45% increase hypothetically, for one, to sit on the similar paper gain of about 25%, my average holding cost will be $0.805. Why would I want a higher average holding cost with same percentage paper gain? Of course, now it is to every investors' interest that the price get higher and higher, the only one will complain is those sitting on the sideline when the prices were low.

sgng123 ( Date: 23-Jan-2025 10:43) Posted:

U never mention it got demolished 3 mth after listing, cutting by half.
0.45 hit in morning, now we see if this gap up sustainable or just fake smoke.

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While some ' investors' may have lamented the slow pace of appreciation for the share price, YZJF had in fact appreciated 45% for the past 1 year from the 52-week low of $0.305 to hit new 52-week high of $0.45 today. It is now trying to turn previous resistance of $0.445 to support. While the price has appreciated 45% for the past 1 year, meanwhile, it had paid dividend yield of between 5%+ to 6%+ for the past 2 payouts. If YZJF were to maintain the payout yield of 6% for the upcoming dividend, the dividend per share has to be at least 3 cents based on share price of $0.45! If the yield is compressed to 5% with 3 cents dividend payout, the share price will hit $0.60! Now, I for once will not believe that either scenarios will pan out in this coming results, though I have confident that for the long term, this should be achievable. Most likely, the market is working for a scenario of about 5.5% dividend payout with dividend per unit between 2.2 cents to 2.5 cents. So we may see $0.45 resistance to stay for a while but all calculation will be off if somehow, YZJF declare dividend more than 2.5 cents and/or with EPS somehow hitting at least 7.5 cents for the year.

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Gap up! Coupled with breaking $0.445 resistance! Now this is unexpected. Let?s see whether it will take the customary step of retracing lower price or conquer new resistance price of $0.45 and above.