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Latest Posts By sfw2124
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| 17-Apr-2026 11:32 |
Hong Fok
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Technical Analysis-Seasonal Trend
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The " Deep Value" play for Hong Fok (H30) is effectively a bet on the *re-rating of its asset base*, which is currently valued by the market at a steep 73% discount to NAV. If your primary hope is for the divestment of older assets to unlock this value, the current 2026 landscape shows several strategic moves in that direction. ### 1. The " Divestment by Consolidation" Strategy Management has been quietly making its older assets " sale-ready." * *International Building (Orchard Road):* This is the most significant catalyst. In late 2024 and throughout 2025, Hong Fok moved to acquire the remaining strata units it didn' t already own (#01-02 to #01-06).      * *Why this matters:* Historically, strata-titled buildings are difficult to sell or redevelop. By consolidating ownership, the building is now a prime candidate for an *en-bloc sale* or a major redevelopment at the heart of Orchard.     * *Market Context:* With current commercial land betterment charges seeing only marginal increases (0.5%), the timing for a high-value divestment or redevelopment of a freehold asset like this is improving. ### 2. Family-Level Activity: A Lead Indicator? As a " Deep Value" investor, keep a close eye on the *Cheong family&rsquo s* private moves, as they often precede corporate shifts: * *Holland Piazza Sale:* In March 2026, a member of the Cheong family (Cheong Sim Lam) bought *Holland Piazza* for S$100 million. * *Asset Liquidity:* While this was a personal purchase, it highlights the family' s active engagement in the Singapore high-end commercial market. Often in family-run firms like Hong Fok, private liquidity needs or estate planning can trigger a corporate decision to divest " non-core" older assets to pay out a special dividend or fund new ventures. ### 3. FY2025 Financial Signals The FY2025 results (released Feb 2026) show a subtle shift in how they view their portfolio: * *Revaluation Gains:* A *S$16.2M gain* on investment properties suggests that despite global wars and high rates, the underlying value of their " old" assets is rising, not stagnating. * *Cash Flow Focus:* Management has explicitly stated a priority on " refining the portfolio for higher-quality revenue." This is corporate-speak for moving away from older, maintenance-heavy units toward more efficient holdings. ### 4. The Share Buyback " Mandate" The most aggressive signal right now isn' t a sale, but the *buyback intensity*. * *Activity:* In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Hong Fok has been one of the most active mid-cap companies on the SGX for buybacks, often picking up over *1.3 million shares* in single tranches at prices around S$0.82&ndash S$0.98. * *Strategic Intent:* Buybacks at a 70% discount to NAV are mathematically superior to almost any other investment. By reducing the share count now, management ensures that if they do divest a major asset later (like the International Building), the " per-share" windfall for remaining shareholders will be significantly larger. --- ### Potential " Post-War" Revenue Catalyst If the geopolitical tensions (Ukraine/Middle East) stabilize: * *YOTEL Singapore Orchard:* This is their " swing" asset. Unlike fixed-rent offices, hotel revenue scales instantly with travel recovery. Management has indicated they expect YOTEL to be a primary driver of cash flow in the latter half of 2026. * *Inflation Pass-Through:* As a landlord of prime Orchard and Beach Road space, Hong Fok has the leverage to pass through inflationary costs to tenants upon lease renewals, which will likely show up in the 2H 2026 and FY2027 revenue figures. *The Risk:* Hong Fok is notoriously slow to act. The " Value" is undeniably there at *S$3.65 NAV*, but the " Unlock" requires management to finally let go of a " crown jewel." DYODD
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| 12-Apr-2026 17:57 |
Trading Techniques
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The Trading Floor
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Iran' s demands&mdash no Israel strikes in Lebanon, full control of Hormuz Strait, keep nukes and uranium, release frozen cash&mdash are over-the-top. They act tough but ignore who' s stronger. It' s just bluffing to annoy the US and avoid real talks. Iran even jokes they " lost the keys" to Hormuz. US advantages they forget:
What Trump will do next: He loves short deadlines like 48 hours: " Reopen strait or we hit your mine ships/ports." US troops are ready now. If ignored, targeted strikes&mdash not full war. Trump has the power. Iran will fold or lose the strait for good. Ball' s in his court.
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| 07-Apr-2026 22:07 |
Wee Hur
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Wee Hur
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Wee Hur (E3B) Quick Summary - Simple Terms Stock:  Trading ~S$0.645.  Cheap  (below asset value, good dividend). Family Plan:  Founders (70s) retiring soon. Kids (25-55) won' t run daily ops&mdash hire pros. Use  insurance trick  for clean money split: cash for non-biz kids, debt protection for company. Projects:  S$673M orderbook  (3-4 years work locked). Big wins:  Project ER (S$203M HDB)  +  FD (S$236M HDB). Steady govt cashflow. Earnings:  Growing fast&mdash 2H25 revenue +25%, profit +35%.  Construction booming, margins up. Why Buy?  Safe family succession + fat project pipeline + cheap price = solid long-term hold. Less " family drama" risk than peers. Verdict:  Undervalued builder with multi-year growth. Watchlist worthy! 👍 DYODD
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| 07-Apr-2026 18:48 |
Olam Group
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Olaim Group Financial Results
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Olam-Mindsprint Deal: Clearing Up the Confusion (Simple Breakdown) There' s been some head-scratching about Olam' s (VC2) Mindsprint sale to Wipro. Here' s the plain-English version: 1. The Sale = Straight Win Olam sells Mindsprint for  US$375m cash  (~S$500m). They originally paid ~US$65m for it years back, so that' s a  ~US$310m profit  booked. Per-share impact: +10 cents NAV.  Cash goes to special dividends down the line. Home run. Deal closes June 2026. 2. The Services Contract = Business as Usual (Maybe Better) Olam signs 8-year deal paying Wipro  US$100m/year  for IT/digital services. This is  55-60% of Olam' s normal IT/shared services budget  (~US$175m total spend). Not new spending&mdash just redirecting existing IT dollars from internal team + vendors &rarr Wipro' s AI expertise. Hope for efficiency savings later (TBC). Who pays post-reorg?  Probably Olam Group overall (split across remaining businesses like ofi). Agri' s already separating. News article  just reports facts accurately   was spot-on about value unlock but guessed on IT savings (fair call, not confirmed). Bottom line:  Smart move. Cash today + same operations tomorrow + focus on food biz. Win-win.  DYODD
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| 23-Mar-2026 20:37 |
Hong Leong Asia
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Hong Leong Asia
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US, Singapore, and Asian markets are likely to rally on President Trump' s announcement of productive US-Iran talks and the five-day strike postponement, easing oil supply fears from the Strait of Hormuz closure. US MarketsWall Street futures (Dow, S& P 500) should open 0.5-1% higher, mirroring prior de-escalation rallies, as the war premium unwinds from Brent crude&mdash front-month contracts dipping 2-3% toward $85-90 while May futures extend contango gains. Energy stocks may lag, but banks and tech rebound on reduced stagflation risks. Singapore STISTI could climb 1-1.5% to test 4,950, led by banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB up 1.5-2%) on lower oil input costs for importers cyclical plays like Hong Leong Asia benefit from construction/materials relief. Volume surges post-rout, signaling true rebound not dead cat, per patterns after Trump' s March 22 signal. Broader AsiaNikkei (+2-3%), Hang Seng (+1.5%), and Kospi (+2%) follow suit, with oil-sensitive Japan/South Korea leading commodity exporters like Australia lag slightly. Regional LNG/shipping stocks pop 3-5% on Hormuz optimism, though caution lingers if talks falter by week' s end. DYODD  
 
 
 
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| 23-Mar-2026 20:34 |
Hong Leong Asia
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Hong Leong Asia
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How will US,Singapore ,Asian Market reacts to this :" &ldquo I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,&rdquo wrote Trump in a  Truth Social post. &ldquo Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions,&rdquo the president added."
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| 21-Mar-2026 20:11 |
Wee Hur
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Wee Hur
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In 3 March 2026 Wee Hur delivered stellar FY25 numbers: Revenue up 47% to $295M, net profit +27% to $68M (adjusted +130% to $106M). Key drivers - construction boom, Bartley Vue project, Pioneer Lodge dorm (10.5K beds), Fund I exit cash windfall ($300M).
 
Stock Impact:
 
Trailing PE drops - Higher past-year earnings make shares look cheaper now.
 
Forward PE steady-ish - Strong $673M orderbook & new projects signal future profits, but dorm competition may temper expectations.
 
Why? More profit = bigger EPS denominator in PE ratio (Price/EPS). Cash pile $251M + MTN funds growth without dilution. Solid buy for construction/property play.
 
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Metrics Snapshot
┌ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┬ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┬ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┐
│                   │ FY25 Change  │ PE Effect        │
├ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┼ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┼ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┤
│ Revenue          │ +47%          │ Trailing &darr       │
│ Net Profit      │ +27%          │ Trailing &darr       │
│ Cash            │ +654%        │ Forward stable  │
│ Orderbook        │ $673M        │ Forward &darr         │
└ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┴ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┴ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┘
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| 21-Mar-2026 19:55 |
Hong Leong Asia
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Hong Leong Asia
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There' s ongoing news on the potential HK listing of Guangxi Yuchai Marine and Genset Power Co., Ltd. (MGP), a key indirect subsidiary under HLA' s China Yuchai (CYI).  HLA announced on 27 Jan 2026 that MGP filed for listing on HKEX Main Board, following an Aug 2025 teaser SGX cleared it with no objections. Key DetailsMGP specializes in marine propulsion and power generation engines (up to 102L, 4,000hp), positioning as China' s largest power gen engine supplier with ~RMB5B revenue in 2024 and > RMB600M dividends paid recently. It' s spun off from Yuchai in 2021, riding AI/data center boom (HHP engines key). CYI holds ~71-76% stake HLA owns ~49% of CYI. Potential Ramifications
Positive catalyst for HLA/CYI   " Bonus: CYI sub MGP filed HK IPO (Jan ' 26, SGX OK' d) &ndash data center/marine engine gem, potential value unlock!
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| 21-Mar-2026 19:51 |
Hong Leong Asia
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Hong Leong Asia
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HLA (H22) jreferring to the stellar FY2025 results &ndash revenue up 22% to $5.18B, net profit up 28.5% to $113M, EPS jumped to 15.08¢ from 11.74¢ . Powertrain (China Yuchai/CYI) was the star: 29% more engines sold (461k units), profit soared 63%. Trailing P/E drops  (better value) since earnings grew faster than share price likely did. Company now net cash $845M (was $478M). Forward P/E improves  too &ndash CYI eyes more growth in trucks, data centers, marine engines small asset buys/JVs boost capacity. Dividend up 25% to 5¢ . Solid buy signal for value hunters! Bullish on 2026.  DYI
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| 21-Mar-2026 19:02 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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The Smart Investor' s ST Engineering (S63) article is accurate overall&mdash strong results, defensive appeal, but pricey valuation. Here' s a layman-friendly breakdown, validation, and rebuttal (if needed), condensed for easy reading. Key Facts: All Verified ✅
Why It' s Defensive: Makes Sense
Growth Tailwinds: Realistic
Valuation Warning: Biggest Point&mdash Fair Critique
 
 
Bottom Line for Laymen: Buy if you love defense stability and can stomach high price (wait for dip?). Skip if seeking " cheap" blue chips&mdash fundamentals rock, but valuation screams caution. No major errors in article it' s balanced promo with solid risks highlighted.stengg+2
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| 21-Mar-2026 18:43 |
Trading Techniques
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The Trading Floor
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Quick Check on That Inflation & Rate Post + DJIA Chart (Comment from Perplexity AI Pro-DYODD) Inflation Drivers: Spot On Oil prices (now ~$110 Brent, up 50% in a year) and tariffs can definitely push prices higher. Supply/demand imbalances too. But core US inflation is still tame at ~2.5%, not spiking yet. Fed' s Stance: Correct Fed balances jobs + stable prices (dual mandate). They' re holding rates at 3.5-3.75% and watching oil risks closely&mdash no rate hikes signaled yet. Rate Path Fix The " fall from 3.6% to 3.1% over 2 years" is a bit off. Latest March 2026 Fed " dot plot" :
 
 
 
Bear Market View: Reasonable Oil shock + Strait of Hormuz worries = volatility, sure. But 10-15% DJIA pullback (like your chart) isn' t automatically a full bear market.  Wait-and-see makes sense&mdash core inflation moderate, Fed patient. Bottom Line: Good take overall. Just update the rate numbers. No need to panic-sell yet!
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| 20-Mar-2026 05:50 |
Wee Hur
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Wee Hur
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Recent pledges by Japan, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands to support securing the Strait of Hormuz have eased tensions, contributing to a decline in Brent and WTI oil prices after recent all-time highs amid Iran-related disruptions. Pledges Confirmation These nations issued a joint statement condemning Iran' s attacks on shipping and infrastructure, pledging readiness to ensure safe passage through the Strait, which handles 20% of global oil trade. This follows initial hesitance and aligns with US pressure under President Trump. Oil Price Trends Brent crude recently hit highs above $110/bbl but slid to around $100-108/bbl as some ships transited the Strait, with WTI falling to $93-97/bbl range. Further normalization could accelerate declines if traffic fully resumes.
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| 20-Mar-2026 05:45 |
Hong Leong Asia
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Hong Leong Asia
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  Yesterday' s oil rout hit many hard, but with Japan, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Netherlands now pledging full support to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, the worst looks behind us. Brent and WTI are already sliding from ATHs as normalization kicks in&mdash great news for HLA that got squeezed by fuel spikes and particularly yeaterday 19c drop
Expect steady recovery ahead as costs ease and confidence returns. Hold firm brighter days incoming!
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| 19-Mar-2026 21:13 |
Hong Leong Asia
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Hong Leong Asia
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Is MGP Spin-Off Good for HLA? Simple Explanation for Share Junction Yes, spinning off MGP (Yuchai' s marine + genset business) to list on HKEX is good news for HLA shareholders. Here' s the easy breakdown: What is it? MGP makes engines for ships and power generators (e.g., data centre backups). It' s buried deep in HLA' s China Yuchai stake (~86% of HLA revenue). Now applying to list separately on Hong Kong Stock Exchange (announced 27 Jan 2026). SGX says " no problem" - no shareholder vote needed. How it works MGP does IPO on HKEX (probably H2 2026 if approved). HLA/China Yuchai keeps big stake (20-70%) but gets liquid shares. HLA shareholders don' t get MGP shares directly, but benefit from higher HLA value. Why it' s good (simple version) 1. Hidden gem gets proper price text Hidden in HLA: S$1 = S$0.50 actual value Standalone on HKEX: S$1 = S$0.80-1.00 value Marine/genset businesses grow fast but trade cheap inside big HLA. HKEX listing = higher price = S$0.30-0.50 upside for HLA share. 2. HLA can focus better HLA sticks to trucks/buses + building materials (its strengths). MGP gets own money to grow without dragging HLA earnings. 3. More cash + dividends IPO brings cash to MGP (S$200-500m est). More dividends flow up to HLA &rarr bigger DPS (already 5¢ , yield 1.8%). 4. Past proof Similar Yuchai moves made HLA jump 19% before. Peers doing spin-offs went up 15-30%. Risks? HKEX might say no (China rules). Bad timing = weak IPO price. Bottom line: Great move to unlock value. From S$2.85, could easily hit S$3.20-3.50 if listing happens. Buy the dip! (Source: HLA' s 27 Jan 2026 announcement + FY2025 results)
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| 18-Mar-2026 21:58 |
Mermaid Maritime
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Mermaid Maritime
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Watch Iran War: Jeff Currie Says Oil Is &lsquo Mispriced&rsquo at $100 Per 
 
Key Argument
Currie highlights a major disconnect between paper markets (like futures for WTI/Brent around $100) and physical markets, where real-world prices signal much tighter supply. For instance, jet fuel spiked to $230/barrel in Singapore and $220 in Rotterdam, while Asian crude blends (Dubai/Oman) trade at $130&ndash 170, far exceeding paper benchmarks by $30+/barrel.
 
Supply Shock Context
He terms the disruptions " molecular contagion," spreading from Asia to Europe, comparable in scale to the COVID demand shock that wrecked global supply chains. Reports of strikes on Iranian energy assets exacerbate this, with Russian Urals crude rallying to $65&ndash 70 after sanctions eased, but not enough to offset the gaps.
 
Market Implications
 
Physical indicators show oil is " mispriced" at current levels against these realities, implying upward pressure as rebalancing causes pain. No policy responses, like IEA reserve releases, can fully halt the ascent given the supply tightness.
Barrel - Bloomberg   
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| 18-Mar-2026 21:55 |
Rex Intl
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The next chapter
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Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer at Carlyle Energy Pathways, argues that oil at $100 per barrel is undervalued amid escalating supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. Key Argument Currie highlights a major disconnect between paper markets (like futures for WTI/Brent around $100) and physical markets, where real-world prices signal much tighter supply. For instance, jet fuel spiked to $230/barrel in Singapore and $220 in Rotterdam, while Asian crude blends (Dubai/Oman) trade at $130&ndash 170, far exceeding paper benchmarks by $30+/barrel. Supply Shock Context He terms the disruptions " molecular contagion," spreading from Asia to Europe, comparable in scale to the COVID demand shock that wrecked global supply chains. Reports of strikes on Iranian energy assets exacerbate this, with Russian Urals crude rallying to $65&ndash 70 after sanctions eased, but not enough to offset the gaps. Market Implications Physical indicators show oil is " mispriced" at current levels against these realities, implying upward pressure as rebalancing causes pain. No policy responses, like IEA reserve releases, can fully halt the ascent given the supply tightness. Follow-ups Track Brent and WTI oil prices live amid Iran war risks with a dashboard and alert me if Brent hits $100 or supply news breaks Computer Why is there a disconnect between paper and physical oil markets What is molecular contagion in oil markets Impact of Iran war on global oil supply chains Will IEA reserve release lower oil prices
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| 18-Mar-2026 21:28 |
Mermaid Maritime
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Mermaid Maritime
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Today MML share price stood frimly and unwavering although not much volume . At this material time the Brent crude is USD 107. Next morning when we wake up and if the Brent crude rallies to USD 110 or higher - there is a good chance the bears will run for cover and hopefully the bulls will take over control again. 
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| 18-Mar-2026 21:23 |
Rex Intl
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The next chapter
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At this material time of making this comment the Brent crude is USD 107. Next morning when we wake up and if the Brent crude rallies to USD 110 or higher - there is a good chance the bears will run for cover. 
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| 18-Mar-2026 05:51 |
Mermaid Maritime
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Mermaid Maritime
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Mermaid Maritime' s case stands stronger than skeptic' s past-focused doubts, as its current order book, margin protections, and subsea niche deliver resilient earnings absent in Nam Cheong or Beng Kuang' s shipbuilding cyclicality. Addressing " super cycle" fatigueSkeptics dismiss supercycles because past E& P booms (2014&ndash 2016) crashed shipyards like Nam Cheong (bankrupt) and Beng Kuang (restructured). Mermaid differs fundamentally: subsea services generate 70&ndash 80% recurring IRM revenue from long-term contracts, not one-off builds. Its US$726M backlog (1.5x FY25 revenue) locks in visibility to 2036, smoothing cycles unlike shipyards' feast-or-famine order books. Profit margin resilience
Fund disinterest explainedFunds chase liquid large-caps (S$1B+ mkt cap) like Borr Drilling, not Mermaid' s S$200&ndash 300M float. Nam Cheong/Beng Kuang rode hype into traps Mermaid trades at 5&ndash 6x FY26 EV/EBITDA (vs. peers 8&ndash 10x), offering 30&ndash 50% upside to fair value without retail frenzy. Institutions like Seatankers hold steady&mdash quiet confidence, not pump-and-dump. Bottom line counterIf crisis hits, Mermaid' s backlog and pass-throughs cap losses at breakeven (not " hundreds of millions" ), while majors cut drilling. Reconstruction adds US$650&ndash 750M Gulf upside. Buy dips this outlasted 1986, 2008, and 2020. DYODD.
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| 17-Mar-2026 20:41 |
Mermaid Maritime
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Mermaid Maritime
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Mermaid Maritime (SGX: DU4) &ndash Riding the Next Subsea Supercycle Founded in 1983 by Danish mariners and listed on the SGX since 2007, Mermaid Maritime is a global subsea services leader, headquartered in Thailand. With over 40 years of operational excellence, the company serves blue-chip oil and gas clients across the Middle East, Asia Pacific, the North Sea, and Africa. Its operations span inspection, repair & maintenance (IRM), cable laying, transport and installation (T& I), and decommissioning&mdash supported by a fleet of 11+ dynamic-positioning vessels, advanced ROVs, and 500+ highly skilled divers. Long-Term Earnings Visibility Mermaid&rsquo s US$726 million order book (as of Dec 2025) provides exceptional visibility well into 2036. With contracts ranging from annual IRM assignments to multi-year offshore construction projects, this backlog forms a solid revenue base. Historically, Mermaid achieves 70&ndash 80% conversion, translating to predictable, recurring income that gives investors rare confidence in future returns. Near-Term Growth Drivers Even in a year of global delays, FY2025 revenue held steady at US$489 million, with IRM growth of 12.3% year-on-year. Analysts forecast 6&ndash 15% revenue growth in FY2026, reaching US$520&ndash 560 million organically. At the same time, the US&ndash Israel&ndash Iran conflict has reshaped Gulf operations&mdash pushing war-risk premiums up tenfold. Thanks to BIMCO-style clauses, Mermaid is protected: clients reimburse extra insurance and vessel costs, effectively boosting margins by 20&ndash 50% even during disruptions. Post-War Upside: A Reconstruction Surge When hostilities ease, the rebuild cycle begins&mdash with damaged rigs, cables, and pipelines requiring urgent subsea intervention. Given Mermaid&rsquo s 79% exposure to the Middle East and a proven Gulf track record, the company stands poised to capture a US$650&ndash 750 million revenue opportunity in FY2026, potentially expanding its order book beyond US$1 billion. The Investor Case Mermaid combines resilient cash-generating operations (ROE 8%) with a balanced capital structure (debt-to-equity 62%). Its share price volatility (beta 1.15) offers asymmetric upside for investors who buy amid war jitters and hold into the reconstruction wave. The recent share price pullback reflects sentiment&mdash not fundamentals&mdash creating an attractive &ldquo buy the dip&rdquo window. Bottom line: Mermaid Maritime is a rare play on both defensive cash flow and post-war growth&mdash anchored by multi-year contracts and deepwater expertise that have outlasted every energy cycle since 1983. DYODD
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