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Latest Posts By sfw2124 - Senior      About sfw2124
First   < Newer   41-60 of 184   Older>   Last  

17-Apr-2026 11:32 Hong Fok   /   Technical Analysis-Seasonal Trend       Go to Message
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The " Deep Value" play for Hong Fok (H30) is effectively a bet on the *re-rating of its asset base*, which is currently valued by the market at a steep 73% discount to NAV. If your primary hope is for the divestment of older assets to unlock this value, the current 2026 landscape shows several strategic moves in that direction.

### 1. The " Divestment by Consolidation" Strategy
Management has been quietly making its older assets " sale-ready."
* *International Building (Orchard Road):* This is the most significant catalyst. In late 2024 and throughout 2025, Hong Fok moved to acquire the remaining strata units it didn' t already own (#01-02 to #01-06). 
    * *Why this matters:* Historically, strata-titled buildings are difficult to sell or redevelop. By consolidating ownership, the building is now a prime candidate for an *en-bloc sale* or a major redevelopment at the heart of Orchard.
    * *Market Context:* With current commercial land betterment charges seeing only marginal increases (0.5%), the timing for a high-value divestment or redevelopment of a freehold asset like this is improving.

### 2. Family-Level Activity: A Lead Indicator?
As a " Deep Value" investor, keep a close eye on the *Cheong family&rsquo s* private moves, as they often precede corporate shifts:
* *Holland Piazza Sale:* In March 2026, a member of the Cheong family (Cheong Sim Lam) bought *Holland Piazza* for S$100 million.
* *Asset Liquidity:* While this was a personal purchase, it highlights the family' s active engagement in the Singapore high-end commercial market. Often in family-run firms like Hong Fok, private liquidity needs or estate planning can trigger a corporate decision to divest " non-core" older assets to pay out a special dividend or fund new ventures.

### 3. FY2025 Financial Signals
The FY2025 results (released Feb 2026) show a subtle shift in how they view their portfolio:
* *Revaluation Gains:* A *S$16.2M gain* on investment properties suggests that despite global wars and high rates, the underlying value of their " old" assets is rising, not stagnating.
* *Cash Flow Focus:* Management has explicitly stated a priority on " refining the portfolio for higher-quality revenue." This is corporate-speak for moving away from older, maintenance-heavy units toward more efficient holdings.

### 4. The Share Buyback " Mandate"
The most aggressive signal right now isn' t a sale, but the *buyback intensity*.
* *Activity:* In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Hong Fok has been one of the most active mid-cap companies on the SGX for buybacks, often picking up over *1.3 million shares* in single tranches at prices around S$0.82&ndash S$0.98.
* *Strategic Intent:* Buybacks at a 70% discount to NAV are mathematically superior to almost any other investment. By reducing the share count now, management ensures that if they do divest a major asset later (like the International Building), the " per-share" windfall for remaining shareholders will be significantly larger.

---

### Potential " Post-War" Revenue Catalyst
If the geopolitical tensions (Ukraine/Middle East) stabilize:
* *YOTEL Singapore Orchard:* This is their " swing" asset. Unlike fixed-rent offices, hotel revenue scales instantly with travel recovery. Management has indicated they expect YOTEL to be a primary driver of cash flow in the latter half of 2026.
* *Inflation Pass-Through:* As a landlord of prime Orchard and Beach Road space, Hong Fok has the leverage to pass through inflationary costs to tenants upon lease renewals, which will likely show up in the 2H 2026 and FY2027 revenue figures.

*The Risk:* Hong Fok is notoriously slow to act. The " Value" is undeniably there at *S$3.65 NAV*, but the " Unlock" requires management to finally let go of a " crown jewel." DYODD

DumbMoney      ( Date: 16-Apr-2026 10:07) Posted:

No corporate action before 30 Apr AGM. Too many questions to answer.  Today' s cap for buyback is $1.00, so there are other buyers accumulating.  Vested.  DYODD.

7ocean      ( Date: 16-Apr-2026 10:02) Posted:

After crossing $1 she will sailing to $1.50 very soon....Let' s us Huat together..


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12-Apr-2026 17:57 Trading Techniques   /   The Trading Floor       Go to Message
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Iran' s demands&mdash no Israel strikes in Lebanon, full control of Hormuz Strait, keep nukes and uranium, release frozen cash&mdash are over-the-top. They act tough but ignore who' s stronger. It' s just bluffing to annoy the US and avoid real talks. Iran even jokes they " lost the keys" to Hormuz.

US advantages they forget:


  • US Navy can clear mines alone with drones, sonar, and sweeps&mdash no need for Iran' s help. US ships already pass through.


  • US holds $100B of Iran' s money frozen, plus sanctions on China' s oil buys (Iran' s cash lifeline).


  • Saudi, UAE, Qatar say no to Iran' s Hormuz grab&mdash it hurts their oil exports too.


  • Iran' s leaders are divided (new guy Khamenei hurt, infighting).


What Trump will do next:
He loves short deadlines like 48 hours: " Reopen strait or we hit your mine ships/ports." US troops are ready now. If ignored, targeted strikes&mdash not full war.

Trump has the power. Iran will fold or lose the strait for good. Ball' s in his court.

wavehunter      ( Date: 12-Apr-2026 16:11) Posted:

Iran said the following conditions are non-negotiable:

1. Israeli strikes on Lebanon must stop immediately.
2. Iran to be given control of Straits of Hormuz.
3. Iran has the right to keep their enriched uranium and nuclear programme.
4. All Iranian assets to be unfrozen forthwith.

The above pre-conditions are non-negotiable and to be met by the US before negotiations can commence.
The Iranians talk like they are the US and US is Iran.
To me, it shows the Iranians dont want to talk at all.
They just want to piss you off and raise your blood pressure.

So the ball is now in Donald Trump' s court.
What next ?
He will ask his generals what the military is going to do next and how long the military need to get ready.
If the generals say for exampe, 48 hrs, Trump will issue a 48-hr utimatum to Iran to reopen the Straits or
face fire & fury like they have never seen.   

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07-Apr-2026 22:07 Wee Hur   /   Wee Hur       Go to Message
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Wee Hur (E3B) Quick Summary - Simple Terms

Stock:  Trading ~S$0.645.  Cheap  (below asset value, good dividend).

Family Plan:  Founders (70s) retiring soon. Kids (25-55) won' t run daily ops&mdash hire pros. Use  insurance trick  for clean money split: cash for non-biz kids, debt protection for company.

Projects:  S$673M orderbook  (3-4 years work locked). Big wins:  Project ER (S$203M HDB)  +  FD (S$236M HDB). Steady govt cashflow.

Earnings:  Growing fast&mdash 2H25 revenue +25%, profit +35%.  Construction booming, margins up.

Why Buy?  Safe family succession + fat project pipeline + cheap price = solid long-term hold. Less " family drama" risk than peers.

Verdict:  Undervalued builder with multi-year growth. Watchlist worthy! 👍 DYODD

Joelton      ( Date: 06-Apr-2026 10:32) Posted:



Every generation needs its own breakthrough: Wee Hur&rsquo s 2nd-gen leader on building a lasting legacy

SINGAPORE &ndash Mr Goh Wee Ping is a second-generation member of the family-founded property developer and construction company Wee Hur Holdings.

Mr Goh, who will be 40 in 2026, wears two hats as the group&rsquo s chief investment officer and the chief executive of fund management arm Wee Hur Capital.

While his father and uncles, who are in their 70s, remain on the executive board overseeing the company&rsquo s overall strategy and direction, the family has begun planning for life without the founders.

They call the shots when they are around so a lot of things can be resolved, Mr Goh said. 

The real test &ndash how the second generation rallies together &ndash will come when they are not around.
&ldquo This will be quite far down the road. We have some time to prepare,&rdquo he added.
 


Business succession and wealth transfer

Mr Goh noted that among the second generation, there is a wide age range, with members as young as 25 and as old as 55. The family has held &ldquo a lot of internal discussions&rdquo about succession planning. &ldquo We are not quite there yet, but I would say soon,&rdquo he said.

Like the controlling Goh family, many of the wealthiest families in the Asia-Pacific region are pondering the issue of business succession and wealth transfer.

Mr Conrad Huber, UBS business head for India and non-resident Indians, Indonesia and Japan International, said many private bank clients have said their priority is to grow the family&rsquo s wealth and ensure a smooth transfer of that wealth to the next generation.

He added that in Asia, the family&rsquo s wealth remains closely tied to the family business. Hence, business succession and wealth transfer decisions typically go hand in hand.

Wee Hur is taking a slightly different stance. &ldquo There is never a cookie-cutter approach to succession planning on the business side and legacy and wealth planning on the ownership side,&rdquo Mr Goh said. &ldquo We need to separate ownership from running the business.&rdquo

The business can be run by anyone &ndash professionals and family members. &ldquo We do not need to train our next generation to take over the business.&rdquo But we do need to train them to be better shareholders of the business, he said. 

When there is infighting and no family member on the board to sign off on key decisions, this can end up paralysing the family business.

What could go wrong?

A report of a survey by HSBC Life of 100 high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) in Singapore released on March 30 found that 45 per cent of respondents have a formal legacy plan in place, 39 per cent are in the early stages of planning and gathering information, while 16 per cent have yet to begin.

HSBC Life defines a HNWI as one who has between US$2 million (S$2.6 million) and US$10 million in investable assets. 

Among the respondents, 37 per cent cited concerns about the potential for family disputes or conflicts that could undermine the family&rsquo s legacy.

Fifty per cent of respondents think the next generation may mismanage or squander the family&rsquo s wealth, and 29 per cent worry that their successors might be unprepared or incapable of managing the family&rsquo s wealth.

A whole new world

To be fair, the next generation likely grew up in an environment very different from that of their founder parents.

Ms Angela Koh, head of wealth planning and family office advisory services at UOB Private Bank, said most business owners built their wealth through grit and hard work. She added that it is not fair to expect the second generation to follow in their footsteps, as the business environment has changed and they now face different challenges.

Furthermore, the next generation might have an edge in this ever-changing business landscape. Ms Koh said they bring interesting skill sets and attitudes that could be really useful for the family. For example, they are generally more tech-savvy, more comfortable with social media and may have fresh perspectives or new ideas that the business can try out.

&ldquo Every generation needs to find its own breakthrough,&rdquo Mr Goh said.

&ldquo When my dad and uncles founded the business, it was very different from now,&rdquo he added. &ldquo We have to find something different so that we can continue to keep up with the times.&rdquo

The next generation will stick to Wee Hur&rsquo s core business and continue to innovate and do the business well. But it needs to look at the periphery, and at what other businesses it can get into, he said.

Shaping the family legacy together

Mr Huber said UBS&rsquo clients have increasingly begun involving their next generation in family and wealth planning decisions.

He added that regular discussions about expectations, roles and responsibilities are integral for a smooth wealth transition. 

Ms Koh from UOB Private Bank said it is important that the next generation is financially literate, knows how to budget and manage money, and has some knowledge about investments and the associated risks.   

She added that there should also be a focus on education in ethics and responsibility, so the next generation builds responsible wealth.

Passing on wealth through insurance

After building a legacy plan, the next step is to think about how to pass on that legacy.

Mr Benjamin Cheng, chief executive of Howden Private Wealth, said life insurance serves a useful purpose for wealth transfer.

For instance, there may be family members who are not interested in or lack the ability to manage the family business.

In this case, the business owner can bequeath an insurance policy and shares in the business to these family members, providing a cash payout and a minority stake in the firm upon the founder&rsquo s death.

As for the family member who can lead the company, the business owner can bequeath a majority stake in the business to him, Mr Cheng said.

He added that insurance provides the certainty of a payout, so if one purchases a $15 million insurance policy, that $15 million is certain at the time of death.

Mr Christopher Albrecht, chief executive at Sun Life Singapore, said a family trust can also buy a life insurance policy on the oldest-generation member. 

When the patriarch or matriarch dies, the insurance policy pays out to the trust. The family trust then buys a life insurance policy on a member of the next oldest generation, and the process goes on.

&ldquo The money is being generated by insurance payouts for every generation,&rdquo he said.

Mr Albrecht added that there are also key person insurance policies whereby the family business takes out a life insurance policy on the business owner. 

When they die, the policy pays cash to the business, which can use the money to repay any outstanding corporate debts.

Jumbo life insurance policies

The insurance route is gaining popularity among Asia&rsquo s wealthy, as witnessed by two jumbo policy issuances in recent years.

Manulife Singapore announced on Feb 24 that it had issued a life insurance policy worth $380 million on behalf of a single client, possibly the largest in Singapore and the region.

The sum assured surpassed that of a whole-of-life policy from HSBC Life in Hong Kong in February 2024, which has a payout of US$250 million for a single wealthy client.

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07-Apr-2026 18:48 Olam Group   /   Olaim Group Financial Results       Go to Message
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Olam-Mindsprint Deal: Clearing Up the Confusion (Simple Breakdown)

There' s been some head-scratching about Olam' s (VC2) Mindsprint sale to Wipro. Here' s the plain-English version:

1. The Sale = Straight Win
Olam sells Mindsprint for  US$375m cash  (~S$500m). They originally paid ~US$65m for it years back, so that' s a  ~US$310m profit  booked.
Per-share impact: +10 cents NAV.  Cash goes to special dividends down the line. Home run. Deal closes June 2026.

2. The Services Contract = Business as Usual (Maybe Better)
Olam signs 8-year deal paying Wipro  US$100m/year  for IT/digital services.
This is  55-60% of Olam' s normal IT/shared services budget  (~US$175m total spend).
Not new spending&mdash just redirecting existing IT dollars from internal team + vendors &rarr Wipro' s AI expertise.
Hope for efficiency savings later (TBC).

Who pays post-reorg?  Probably Olam Group overall (split across remaining businesses like ofi). Agri' s already separating.

News article  just reports facts accurately   was spot-on about value unlock but guessed on IT savings (fair call, not confirmed).

Bottom line:  Smart move. Cash today + same operations tomorrow + focus on food biz. Win-win.  DYODD

Joelton      ( Date: 07-Apr-2026 11:16) Posted:



Olam selling IT and digital services unit Mindsprint to Wipro for US$375 million

The agri-food giant will also spend US$100 million annually with the global tech company for eight years

[SINGAPORE] Agri-food giant Olam Group : VC2 -0.58% is selling its information technology and digital services unit to Wipro for US$375 million as part of a broader corporate reorganisation.

The sale of the Mindsprint unit is part of Olam&rsquo s strategy to sell off assets over time, with the company planning to distribute the net proceeds to shareholders via special dividends, Olam said on Monday (Apr 6).

The Singapore-based company also agreed to an eight-year contract to spend US$100 million annually with the global technology services and consulting company. That represents about 55 to 60 per cent of Olam&rsquo s total annual spending on technology and shared services.

Under the agreement, Wipro&rsquo s consultants will use artificial intelligence tools to upgrade Olam&rsquo s technology across its entire supply chain, from farming and manufacturing to customer engagement.

Leadership continuity

Mindsprint will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Wipro upon the completion of the transaction. The sale is expected to close by the end of June.

The unit employs more than 3,200 people globally and serves clients across various sectors including food and agribusiness, manufacturing, retail and healthcare. Key management personnel, including Mindsprint chief executive officer Suresh Sundararajan, will continue to lead the business to ensure stability and continuity.

Olam Group co-founder and CEO Sunny Verghese said the transaction marks another milestone in the company&rsquo s reorganisation plan, allowing Olam to sharpen its focus on core operating businesses and unlock long-term value.

The partnership aims to advance Olam&rsquo s transformation across its &ldquo farm to fork&rdquo value chain, enhancing operational effectiveness in areas such as farming, manufacturing and supply chain operations.

The Mindsprint deal follows the group&rsquo s sale of its stake in Olam Agri to the Saudis. The group also expects the completion and receipt of proceeds from the sale of its remaining stake in port operator Arise P& L &ldquo sometime towards the end of April&rdquo .

The agri-food company sold or wound down three businesses under the remaining group in the 2025 financial year, leaving it with seven.

 

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23-Mar-2026 20:37 Hong Leong Asia   /   Hong Leong Asia       Go to Message
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US, Singapore, and Asian markets are likely to rally on President Trump' s announcement of productive US-Iran talks and the five-day strike postponement, easing oil supply fears from the Strait of Hormuz closure.

US Markets



Wall Street futures (Dow, S& P 500) should open 0.5-1% higher, mirroring prior de-escalation rallies, as the war premium unwinds from Brent crude&mdash front-month contracts dipping 2-3% toward $85-90 while May futures extend contango gains. Energy stocks may lag, but banks and tech rebound on reduced stagflation risks.​

Singapore STI



STI could climb 1-1.5% to test 4,950, led by banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB up 1.5-2%) on lower oil input costs for importers cyclical plays like Hong Leong Asia benefit from construction/materials relief. Volume surges post-rout, signaling true rebound not dead cat, per patterns after Trump' s March 22 signal.

Broader Asia



Nikkei (+2-3%), Hang Seng (+1.5%), and Kospi (+2%) follow suit, with oil-sensitive Japan/South Korea leading commodity exporters like Australia lag slightly. Regional LNG/shipping stocks pop 3-5% on Hormuz optimism, though caution lingers if talks falter by week' s end.​ ​ DYODD
 
 
 
 


sfw2124      ( Date: 23-Mar-2026 20:34) Posted:

How will US,Singapore ,Asian Market reacts to this :" &ldquo I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,&rdquo wrote Trump in a  Truth Social post. &ldquo Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions,&rdquo the president added."

Iceycoke      ( Date: 23-Mar-2026 15:17) Posted:

days like today, still can make some money. Spread is good. Thank you  institutions. 


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23-Mar-2026 20:34 Hong Leong Asia   /   Hong Leong Asia       Go to Message
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How will US,Singapore ,Asian Market reacts to this :" &ldquo I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,&rdquo wrote Trump in a  Truth Social post. &ldquo Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions,&rdquo the president added."

Iceycoke      ( Date: 23-Mar-2026 15:17) Posted:

days like today, still can make some money. Spread is good. Thank you  institutions. 

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21-Mar-2026 20:11 Wee Hur   /   Wee Hur       Go to Message
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In 3 March 2026 Wee Hur delivered stellar FY25 numbers: Revenue up 47% to $295M, net profit +27% to $68M (adjusted +130% to $106M). Key drivers - construction boom, Bartley Vue project, Pioneer Lodge dorm (10.5K beds), Fund I exit cash windfall ($300M).
 
Stock Impact:
 
Trailing PE drops - Higher past-year earnings make shares look cheaper now.
 
Forward PE steady-ish - Strong $673M orderbook & new projects signal future profits, but dorm competition may temper expectations.
 
Why? More profit = bigger EPS denominator in PE ratio (Price/EPS). Cash pile $251M + MTN funds growth without dilution. Solid buy for construction/property play.
 
text
Metrics Snapshot
┌ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┬ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┬ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┐
│                   │ FY25 Change  │ PE Effect        │
├ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┼ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┼ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┤
│ Revenue          │ +47%          │ Trailing &darr       │
│ Net Profit      │ +27%          │ Trailing &darr       │
│ Cash            │ +654%        │ Forward stable  │
│ Orderbook        │ $673M        │ Forward &darr         │
└ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┴ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┴ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ┘


sfw2124      ( Date: 20-Mar-2026 05:50) Posted:

Recent pledges by Japan, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands to support securing the Strait of Hormuz have eased tensions, contributing to a decline in Brent and WTI oil prices after recent all-time highs amid Iran-related disruptions.

Pledges Confirmation
These nations issued a joint statement condemning Iran' s attacks on shipping and infrastructure, pledging readiness to ensure safe passage through the Strait, which handles 20% of global oil trade. This follows initial hesitance and aligns with US pressure under President Trump.

Oil Price Trends
Brent crude recently hit highs above $110/bbl but slid to around $100-108/bbl as some ships transited the Strait, with WTI falling to $93-97/bbl range. Further normalization could accelerate declines if traffic fully resumes.

goldeneye      ( Date: 15-Mar-2026 16:54) Posted:

looks like almost time nearing

No lousy bleak news further from ME?

Let?s go from here on 16/03 vrooom
Vroom. vroooom. Vrooooooooooom


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21-Mar-2026 19:55 Hong Leong Asia   /   Hong Leong Asia       Go to Message
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There' s ongoing news on the potential HK listing of Guangxi Yuchai Marine and Genset Power Co., Ltd. (MGP), a key indirect subsidiary under HLA' s China Yuchai (CYI).  HLA announced on 27 Jan 2026 that MGP filed for listing on HKEX Main Board, following an Aug 2025 teaser SGX cleared it with no objections.

Key Details



MGP specializes in marine propulsion and power generation engines (up to 102L, 4,000hp), positioning as China' s largest power gen engine supplier with ~RMB5B revenue in 2024 and > RMB600M dividends paid recently. It' s spun off from Yuchai in 2021, riding AI/data center boom (HHP engines key). CYI holds ~71-76% stake HLA owns ~49% of CYI.​

Potential Ramifications



  • Value Unlock:  Successful IPO (~US$100M+ raise targeted) could crystallize MGP' s value (analysts upgrading CYI powertrain multiple to 15x P/E from 12x), boosting HLA' s NAV via higher CYI stake value.


  • Capital/Visibility:  Funds for expansion (data centers, marine) HK listing enhances profile amid China stimulus/exports.


  • HLA Upside:  Supports forward growth narrative one analyst hiked HLA TP to S$4.20 post-news.​


  • Risks:  No guarantees &ndash subject to HKEX/CSRC approval, market conditions China tightened overseas-incorporated listings (Mar 2026).


Positive catalyst for HLA/CYI   " Bonus: CYI sub MGP filed HK IPO (Jan ' 26, SGX OK' d) &ndash data center/marine engine gem, potential value unlock!

sfw2124      ( Date: 21-Mar-2026 19:51) Posted:



HLA (H22) jreferring to the stellar FY2025 results &ndash revenue up 22% to $5.18B, net profit up 28.5% to $113M, EPS jumped to 15.08¢ from 11.74¢ . Powertrain (China Yuchai/CYI) was the star: 29% more engines sold (461k units), profit soared 63%.

Trailing P/E drops  (better value) since earnings grew faster than share price likely did. Company now net cash $845M (was $478M).​

Forward P/E improves  too &ndash CYI eyes more growth in trucks, data centers, marine engines small asset buys/JVs boost capacity. Dividend up 25% to 5¢ .

Solid buy signal for value hunters! Bullish on 2026.  DYI

msksmsks      ( Date: 20-Mar-2026 11:44) Posted:

Price actions suggest bullish signals

May retest $3 again soon

Letz C
 


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21-Mar-2026 19:51 Hong Leong Asia   /   Hong Leong Asia       Go to Message
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HLA (H22) jreferring to the stellar FY2025 results &ndash revenue up 22% to $5.18B, net profit up 28.5% to $113M, EPS jumped to 15.08¢ from 11.74¢ . Powertrain (China Yuchai/CYI) was the star: 29% more engines sold (461k units), profit soared 63%.

Trailing P/E drops  (better value) since earnings grew faster than share price likely did. Company now net cash $845M (was $478M).​

Forward P/E improves  too &ndash CYI eyes more growth in trucks, data centers, marine engines small asset buys/JVs boost capacity. Dividend up 25% to 5¢ .

Solid buy signal for value hunters! Bullish on 2026.  DYI

msksmsks      ( Date: 20-Mar-2026 11:44) Posted:

Price actions suggest bullish signals

May retest $3 again soon

Letz C
 

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21-Mar-2026 19:02 ST Engineering   /   ST Engg       Go to Message
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The Smart Investor' s ST Engineering (S63) article is accurate overall&mdash strong results, defensive appeal, but pricey valuation. Here' s a layman-friendly breakdown, validation, and rebuttal (if needed), condensed for easy reading.

Key Facts: All Verified ✅



  • Business: Diversified into aerospace repair, defense gear, and smart cities/satcom. Global ops, long contracts = steady revenue.minichart+1


  • FY2025 Results (ended Dec 2025): Revenue up 9% to S$12.3B base net profit up 21% to S$851M (reported was lower at S$463M due to one-offs). Order book at record S$33.2B (~3x revenue). Dividend S$0.23/share (yield ~2.1-2.2%). Debt/EBITDA improved to 2.7x. ROE up to ~28.7%.stengg+2


  • Share Performance: Up ~84% past year (to ~S$10.94 as of mid-March 2026).growbeansprout+1

Why It' s Defensive: Makes Sense



  • Order Book Protection: S$33.2B backlog (S$9.9B deliverable 2026) from gov' t defense (recession-proof) and big clients.minichart+1


  • Diversification: 3 segments spread risks&mdash no single weak spot.


  • Dividends: Reliable payer, building trust for income seekers.

Growth Tailwinds: Realistic



  • Defense boom from geopolitics (e.g., Middle East).


  • Aviation rebound for aerospace.


  • Smart cities worldwide for USS.
    Contract wins hit S$18.7B in 2025 (up 49%).finance.yahoo+1

Valuation Warning: Biggest Point&mdash Fair Critique



  • Forward P/E ~33.9x (vs. 5-yr avg ~19.8x). Trailing P/E even higher (~30-50x depending on metric).companiesmarketcap+2


  • No Rebuttal Needed: Article' s right&mdash stock rallied on results + defense hype, baking in big growth. Overpaying kills long-term returns (e.g., every extra dollar paid now compounds less over 20 yrs).
 
Metric FY2025 Vs Prior Comment
Forward P/E 33.9x > > 19.8x avg Premium for defense/growth. [stockanalysis]​
Yield 2.1-2.2% Steady Reliable, not sky-high. [growbeansprout]​
Debt/EBITDA 2.7x Down from 3.6x Healthier balance sheet. [minichart.com]​
 
Bottom Line for Laymen: Buy if you love defense stability and can stomach high price (wait for dip?). Skip if seeking " cheap" blue chips&mdash fundamentals rock, but valuation screams caution. No major errors in article it' s balanced promo with solid risks highlighted.stengg+2


JurongW      ( Date: 14-Mar-2026 16:09) Posted:


Glad that u read it.  THe article is typical of " Smart Investor" - Very proficient in stating the Pros and Cons of the company, but would not give any buy recommendations

ysh2006      ( Date: 14-Mar-2026 16:01) Posted:

The report give a detail description of company but no conclusion answere and  whether buy or not and any target price...


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21-Mar-2026 18:43 Trading Techniques   /   The Trading Floor       Go to Message
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Quick Check on That Inflation & Rate Post + DJIA Chart (Comment from Perplexity AI Pro-DYODD)

Inflation Drivers: Spot On
Oil prices (now ~$110 Brent, up 50% in a year) and tariffs can definitely push prices higher. Supply/demand imbalances too. But core US inflation is still tame at ~2.5%, not spiking yet.

Fed' s Stance: Correct
Fed balances jobs + stable prices (dual mandate). They' re holding rates at 3.5-3.75% and watching oil risks closely&mdash no rate hikes signaled yet.​

Rate Path Fix
The " fall from 3.6% to 3.1% over 2 years" is a bit off. Latest March 2026 Fed " dot plot" :


  • 2026: Just  one small cut  (~3.25-3.5% end-year)


  • 2027: Two more cuts (~low 3% range)
    Not as aggressive easing as stated.
 
Year Expected Fed Rate Cuts Projected
2026 3.25-3.5% 1
2027 Low 3% +2 more
 
 


Bear Market View: Reasonable
Oil shock + Strait of Hormuz worries = volatility, sure. But 10-15% DJIA pullback (like your chart) isn' t automatically a full bear market.  Wait-and-see makes sense&mdash core inflation moderate, Fed patient.

Bottom Line: Good take overall. Just update the rate numbers. No need to panic-sell yet!

MrBear12      ( Date: 21-Mar-2026 13:33) Posted:

There are many factors that can push inflation higher, oil price is one, tariffs another and also a whole load of other factors involving supply vs demand. US still monitoring inflation , does not mean rates will rise soon... What Fed is committed to do is not just to fight inflation, but to ensure maximum employment and ensure stable prices. Current projections are interest rates will fall slowly the next two years from about 3.6 to about 3.1. That may change, but at present that is the projection... Bear does not see a bear market just because of interest rate hikes. Bear adopts a wait and see approach in such a volatile environment

spore1      ( Date: 21-Mar-2026 13:12) Posted:

Oil price pushing Inflation higher. US may raise rate sooner . Mkt may sink another 20-30%! Be extra cautious.. sti likely follow bank may lead the selling down


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20-Mar-2026 05:50 Wee Hur   /   Wee Hur       Go to Message
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Recent pledges by Japan, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands to support securing the Strait of Hormuz have eased tensions, contributing to a decline in Brent and WTI oil prices after recent all-time highs amid Iran-related disruptions.

Pledges Confirmation
These nations issued a joint statement condemning Iran' s attacks on shipping and infrastructure, pledging readiness to ensure safe passage through the Strait, which handles 20% of global oil trade. This follows initial hesitance and aligns with US pressure under President Trump.

Oil Price Trends
Brent crude recently hit highs above $110/bbl but slid to around $100-108/bbl as some ships transited the Strait, with WTI falling to $93-97/bbl range. Further normalization could accelerate declines if traffic fully resumes.

goldeneye      ( Date: 15-Mar-2026 16:54) Posted:

looks like almost time nearing

No lousy bleak news further from ME?

Let?s go from here on 16/03 vrooom
Vroom. vroooom. Vrooooooooooom

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20-Mar-2026 05:45 Hong Leong Asia   /   Hong Leong Asia       Go to Message
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  Yesterday' s oil rout hit many hard, but with Japan, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Netherlands now pledging full support to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, the worst looks behind us. Brent and WTI are already sliding from ATHs as normalization kicks in&mdash great news for HLA that got squeezed by fuel spikes and particularly yeaterday 19c drop

Expect steady recovery ahead as costs ease and confidence returns. Hold firm brighter days incoming!

sfw2124      ( Date: 19-Mar-2026 21:13) Posted:

Is MGP Spin-Off Good for HLA? Simple Explanation for Share Junction

Yes, spinning off MGP (Yuchai' s marine + genset business) to list on HKEX is good news for HLA shareholders. Here' s the easy breakdown:

What is it?
MGP makes engines for ships and power generators (e.g., data centre backups).

It' s buried deep in HLA' s China Yuchai stake (~86% of HLA revenue).

Now applying to list separately on Hong Kong Stock Exchange (announced 27 Jan 2026).

SGX says " no problem" - no shareholder vote needed.

How it works
MGP does IPO on HKEX (probably H2 2026 if approved).

HLA/China Yuchai keeps big stake (20-70%) but gets liquid shares.

HLA shareholders don' t get MGP shares directly, but benefit from higher HLA value.

Why it' s good (simple version)
1. Hidden gem gets proper price

text
Hidden in HLA: S$1 = S$0.50 actual value
Standalone on HKEX: S$1 = S$0.80-1.00 value

Marine/genset businesses grow fast but trade cheap inside big HLA. HKEX listing = higher price = S$0.30-0.50 upside for HLA share.
2. HLA can focus better

HLA sticks to trucks/buses + building materials (its strengths).

MGP gets own money to grow without dragging HLA earnings.

3. More cash + dividends

IPO brings cash to MGP (S$200-500m est).

More dividends flow up to HLA &rarr bigger DPS (already 5¢ , yield 1.8%).

4. Past proof

Similar Yuchai moves made HLA jump 19% before.

Peers doing spin-offs went up 15-30%.

Risks?
HKEX might say no (China rules).

Bad timing = weak IPO price.

Bottom line: Great move to unlock value. From S$2.85, could easily hit S$3.20-3.50 if listing happens. Buy the dip!

(Source: HLA' s 27 Jan 2026 announcement + FY2025 results)

Rightstock      ( Date: 19-Mar-2026 19:12) Posted:

HLA to take direct stake in MGP before the IPO


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19-Mar-2026 21:13 Hong Leong Asia   /   Hong Leong Asia       Go to Message
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Is MGP Spin-Off Good for HLA? Simple Explanation for Share Junction

Yes, spinning off MGP (Yuchai' s marine + genset business) to list on HKEX is good news for HLA shareholders. Here' s the easy breakdown:

What is it?
MGP makes engines for ships and power generators (e.g., data centre backups).

It' s buried deep in HLA' s China Yuchai stake (~86% of HLA revenue).

Now applying to list separately on Hong Kong Stock Exchange (announced 27 Jan 2026).

SGX says " no problem" - no shareholder vote needed.

How it works
MGP does IPO on HKEX (probably H2 2026 if approved).

HLA/China Yuchai keeps big stake (20-70%) but gets liquid shares.

HLA shareholders don' t get MGP shares directly, but benefit from higher HLA value.

Why it' s good (simple version)
1. Hidden gem gets proper price

text
Hidden in HLA: S$1 = S$0.50 actual value
Standalone on HKEX: S$1 = S$0.80-1.00 value

Marine/genset businesses grow fast but trade cheap inside big HLA. HKEX listing = higher price = S$0.30-0.50 upside for HLA share.
2. HLA can focus better

HLA sticks to trucks/buses + building materials (its strengths).

MGP gets own money to grow without dragging HLA earnings.

3. More cash + dividends

IPO brings cash to MGP (S$200-500m est).

More dividends flow up to HLA &rarr bigger DPS (already 5¢ , yield 1.8%).

4. Past proof

Similar Yuchai moves made HLA jump 19% before.

Peers doing spin-offs went up 15-30%.

Risks?
HKEX might say no (China rules).

Bad timing = weak IPO price.

Bottom line: Great move to unlock value. From S$2.85, could easily hit S$3.20-3.50 if listing happens. Buy the dip!

(Source: HLA' s 27 Jan 2026 announcement + FY2025 results)

Rightstock      ( Date: 19-Mar-2026 19:12) Posted:

HLA to take direct stake in MGP before the IPO?

Iceycoke      ( Date: 19-Mar-2026 16:46) Posted:

Yeap. It was out last night. Quite surprise to see such presentation in simple format. Normally their presentation slide is very professional but this time round abit simpler format. Easier to understand too. Maybe something is coming up soon.


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18-Mar-2026 21:58 Mermaid Maritime   /   Mermaid Maritime       Go to Message
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Watch Iran War: Jeff Currie Says Oil Is &lsquo Mispriced&rsquo at $100 Per 
 
Key Argument
Currie highlights a major disconnect between paper markets (like futures for WTI/Brent around $100) and physical markets, where real-world prices signal much tighter supply. For instance, jet fuel spiked to $230/barrel in Singapore and $220 in Rotterdam, while Asian crude blends (Dubai/Oman) trade at $130&ndash 170, far exceeding paper benchmarks by $30+/barrel.
 
Supply Shock Context
He terms the disruptions " molecular contagion," spreading from Asia to Europe, comparable in scale to the COVID demand shock that wrecked global supply chains. Reports of strikes on Iranian energy assets exacerbate this, with Russian Urals crude rallying to $65&ndash 70 after sanctions eased, but not enough to offset the gaps.
 
Market Implications
 
Physical indicators show oil is " mispriced" at current levels against these realities, implying upward pressure as rebalancing causes pain. No policy responses, like IEA reserve releases, can fully halt the ascent given the supply tightness.
Barrel - Bloomberg   

sfw2124      ( Date: 18-Mar-2026 21:28) Posted:

Today MML share price stood frimly and unwavering although not much volume . At this material time the Brent crude is USD 107. Next morning when we wake up and if the Brent crude rallies to USD 110 or higher - there is a good chance the bears will run for cover and hopefully the bulls will take over control again. 

sfw2124      ( Date: 18-Mar-2026 05:51) Posted:



Mermaid Maritime' s case stands stronger than skeptic' s past-focused doubts, as its current order book, margin protections, and subsea niche deliver resilient earnings absent in Nam Cheong or Beng Kuang' s shipbuilding cyclicality.

Addressing " super cycle" fatigue



Skeptics dismiss supercycles because past E& P booms (2014&ndash 2016) crashed shipyards like Nam Cheong (bankrupt) and Beng Kuang (restructured). Mermaid differs fundamentally: subsea services generate 70&ndash 80% recurring IRM revenue from long-term contracts, not one-off builds. Its US$726M backlog (1.5x FY25 revenue) locks in visibility to 2036, smoothing cycles unlike shipyards' feast-or-famine order books.

Profit margin resilience



  • War-risk pass-throughs: BIMCO clauses let Mermaid bill 100% of elevated insurance (~10x premiums) and mob/demob costs, lifting effective margins 20&ndash 50% in Gulf ops (79% exposure). FY25 proved this: revenue held at US$489M despite delays.


  • Historical edge: Unlike 2016&ndash 2020 explorers who slashed capex (crushing contractors), Mermaid' s 8% ROE and 62% debt-equity reflect disciplined ops. Slim margins? Subsea IRM yields 10&ndash 15% EBITDA vs. shipbuilding' s 5&ndash 8% peaks.


  • Crisis buffer: Order book conversion > 70% ensures cash even if oil dips post-2020 recovery added US$500M+ backlog without equity raises.

Fund disinterest explained



Funds chase liquid large-caps (S$1B+ mkt cap) like Borr Drilling, not Mermaid' s S$200&ndash 300M float. Nam Cheong/Beng Kuang rode hype into traps Mermaid trades at 5&ndash 6x FY26 EV/EBITDA (vs. peers 8&ndash 10x), offering 30&ndash 50% upside to fair value without retail frenzy. Institutions like Seatankers hold steady&mdash quiet confidence, not pump-and-dump.

Bottom line counter



If crisis hits, Mermaid' s backlog and pass-throughs cap losses at breakeven (not " hundreds of millions" ), while majors cut drilling. Reconstruction adds US$650&ndash 750M Gulf upside. Buy dips this outlasted 1986, 2008, and 2020. DYODD.


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18-Mar-2026 21:55 Rex Intl   /   The next chapter       Go to Message
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Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer at Carlyle Energy Pathways, argues that oil at $100 per barrel is undervalued amid escalating supply disruptions from the Iran conflict.


Key Argument
Currie highlights a major disconnect between paper markets (like futures for WTI/Brent around $100) and physical markets, where real-world prices signal much tighter supply. For instance, jet fuel spiked to $230/barrel in Singapore and $220 in Rotterdam, while Asian crude blends (Dubai/Oman) trade at $130&ndash 170, far exceeding paper benchmarks by $30+/barrel.


Supply Shock Context
He terms the disruptions " molecular contagion," spreading from Asia to Europe, comparable in scale to the COVID demand shock that wrecked global supply chains. Reports of strikes on Iranian energy assets exacerbate this, with Russian Urals crude rallying to $65&ndash 70 after sanctions eased, but not enough to offset the gaps.


Market Implications
Physical indicators show oil is " mispriced" at current levels against these realities, implying upward pressure as rebalancing causes pain. No policy responses, like IEA reserve releases, can fully halt the ascent given the supply tightness.


Follow-ups

Track Brent and WTI oil prices live amid Iran war risks with a dashboard and alert me if Brent hits $100 or supply news breaks
Computer

Why is there a disconnect between paper and physical oil markets

What is molecular contagion in oil markets

Impact of Iran war on global oil supply chains

Will IEA reserve release lower oil prices


piscesmonkey      ( Date: 18-Mar-2026 21:25) Posted:

Up liao oil field tio attack

Chansenghoe1971      ( Date: 18-Mar-2026 17:17) Posted:

Retract
Move on
143 I also don want


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18-Mar-2026 21:28 Mermaid Maritime   /   Mermaid Maritime       Go to Message
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Today MML share price stood frimly and unwavering although not much volume . At this material time the Brent crude is USD 107. Next morning when we wake up and if the Brent crude rallies to USD 110 or higher - there is a good chance the bears will run for cover and hopefully the bulls will take over control again. 

sfw2124      ( Date: 18-Mar-2026 05:51) Posted:



Mermaid Maritime' s case stands stronger than skeptic' s past-focused doubts, as its current order book, margin protections, and subsea niche deliver resilient earnings absent in Nam Cheong or Beng Kuang' s shipbuilding cyclicality.

Addressing " super cycle" fatigue



Skeptics dismiss supercycles because past E& P booms (2014&ndash 2016) crashed shipyards like Nam Cheong (bankrupt) and Beng Kuang (restructured). Mermaid differs fundamentally: subsea services generate 70&ndash 80% recurring IRM revenue from long-term contracts, not one-off builds. Its US$726M backlog (1.5x FY25 revenue) locks in visibility to 2036, smoothing cycles unlike shipyards' feast-or-famine order books.

Profit margin resilience



  • War-risk pass-throughs: BIMCO clauses let Mermaid bill 100% of elevated insurance (~10x premiums) and mob/demob costs, lifting effective margins 20&ndash 50% in Gulf ops (79% exposure). FY25 proved this: revenue held at US$489M despite delays.


  • Historical edge: Unlike 2016&ndash 2020 explorers who slashed capex (crushing contractors), Mermaid' s 8% ROE and 62% debt-equity reflect disciplined ops. Slim margins? Subsea IRM yields 10&ndash 15% EBITDA vs. shipbuilding' s 5&ndash 8% peaks.


  • Crisis buffer: Order book conversion > 70% ensures cash even if oil dips post-2020 recovery added US$500M+ backlog without equity raises.

Fund disinterest explained



Funds chase liquid large-caps (S$1B+ mkt cap) like Borr Drilling, not Mermaid' s S$200&ndash 300M float. Nam Cheong/Beng Kuang rode hype into traps Mermaid trades at 5&ndash 6x FY26 EV/EBITDA (vs. peers 8&ndash 10x), offering 30&ndash 50% upside to fair value without retail frenzy. Institutions like Seatankers hold steady&mdash quiet confidence, not pump-and-dump.

Bottom line counter



If crisis hits, Mermaid' s backlog and pass-throughs cap losses at breakeven (not " hundreds of millions" ), while majors cut drilling. Reconstruction adds US$650&ndash 750M Gulf upside. Buy dips this outlasted 1986, 2008, and 2020. DYODD.

TraderBen      ( Date: 18-Mar-2026 05:29) Posted:

Hear until sian already this super cycle. If this counter is so good it would hv been played up by funds like how nam cheong n beng kuang moves. The profit margin is so slim if any crisis were to happened. It will drop into few hundred millions of losses again like 2016 to 2020s. By then even the major shareholders will hv to give up on this shi


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18-Mar-2026 21:23 Rex Intl   /   The next chapter       Go to Message
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At this material time of making this comment the Brent crude is USD 107. Next morning when we wake up and if the Brent crude rallies to USD 110 or higher - there is a good chance the bears will run for cover. 

wehuattogether88      ( Date: 18-Mar-2026 21:00) Posted:

Oil up again

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18-Mar-2026 05:51 Mermaid Maritime   /   Mermaid Maritime       Go to Message
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Mermaid Maritime' s case stands stronger than skeptic' s past-focused doubts, as its current order book, margin protections, and subsea niche deliver resilient earnings absent in Nam Cheong or Beng Kuang' s shipbuilding cyclicality.

Addressing " super cycle" fatigue



Skeptics dismiss supercycles because past E& P booms (2014&ndash 2016) crashed shipyards like Nam Cheong (bankrupt) and Beng Kuang (restructured). Mermaid differs fundamentally: subsea services generate 70&ndash 80% recurring IRM revenue from long-term contracts, not one-off builds. Its US$726M backlog (1.5x FY25 revenue) locks in visibility to 2036, smoothing cycles unlike shipyards' feast-or-famine order books.

Profit margin resilience



  • War-risk pass-throughs: BIMCO clauses let Mermaid bill 100% of elevated insurance (~10x premiums) and mob/demob costs, lifting effective margins 20&ndash 50% in Gulf ops (79% exposure). FY25 proved this: revenue held at US$489M despite delays.


  • Historical edge: Unlike 2016&ndash 2020 explorers who slashed capex (crushing contractors), Mermaid' s 8% ROE and 62% debt-equity reflect disciplined ops. Slim margins? Subsea IRM yields 10&ndash 15% EBITDA vs. shipbuilding' s 5&ndash 8% peaks.


  • Crisis buffer: Order book conversion > 70% ensures cash even if oil dips post-2020 recovery added US$500M+ backlog without equity raises.

Fund disinterest explained



Funds chase liquid large-caps (S$1B+ mkt cap) like Borr Drilling, not Mermaid' s S$200&ndash 300M float. Nam Cheong/Beng Kuang rode hype into traps Mermaid trades at 5&ndash 6x FY26 EV/EBITDA (vs. peers 8&ndash 10x), offering 30&ndash 50% upside to fair value without retail frenzy. Institutions like Seatankers hold steady&mdash quiet confidence, not pump-and-dump.

Bottom line counter



If crisis hits, Mermaid' s backlog and pass-throughs cap losses at breakeven (not " hundreds of millions" ), while majors cut drilling. Reconstruction adds US$650&ndash 750M Gulf upside. Buy dips this outlasted 1986, 2008, and 2020. DYODD.

TraderBen      ( Date: 18-Mar-2026 05:29) Posted:

Hear until sian already this super cycle. If this counter is so good it would hv been played up by funds like how nam cheong n beng kuang moves. The profit margin is so slim if any crisis were to happened. It will drop into few hundred millions of losses again like 2016 to 2020s. By then even the major shareholders will hv to give up on this shit

sfw2124      ( Date: 17-Mar-2026 20:41) Posted:

Mermaid Maritime (SGX: DU4) &ndash Riding the Next Subsea Supercycle
Founded in 1983 by Danish mariners and listed on the SGX since 2007, Mermaid Maritime is a global subsea services leader, headquartered in Thailand. With over 40 years of operational excellence, the company serves blue-chip oil and gas clients across the Middle East, Asia Pacific, the North Sea, and Africa. Its operations span inspection, repair & maintenance (IRM), cable laying, transport and installation (T& I), and decommissioning&mdash supported by a fleet of 11+ dynamic-positioning vessels, advanced ROVs, and 500+ highly skilled divers.
Long-Term Earnings Visibility
Mermaid&rsquo s US$726 million order book (as of Dec 2025) provides exceptional visibility well into 2036. With contracts ranging from annual IRM assignments to multi-year offshore construction projects, this backlog forms a solid revenue base. Historically, Mermaid achieves 70&ndash 80% conversion, translating to predictable, recurring income that gives investors rare confidence in future returns.
Near-Term Growth Drivers
Even in a year of global delays, FY2025 revenue held steady at US$489 million, with IRM growth of 12.3% year-on-year. Analysts forecast 6&ndash 15% revenue growth in FY2026, reaching US$520&ndash 560 million organically.
At the same time, the US&ndash Israel&ndash Iran conflict has reshaped Gulf operations&mdash pushing war-risk premiums up tenfold. Thanks to BIMCO-style clauses, Mermaid is protected: clients reimburse extra insurance and vessel costs, effectively boosting margins by 20&ndash 50% even during disruptions.
Post-War Upside: A Reconstruction Surge
When hostilities ease, the rebuild cycle begins&mdash with damaged rigs, cables, and pipelines requiring urgent subsea intervention. Given Mermaid&rsquo s 79% exposure to the Middle East and a proven Gulf track record, the company stands poised to capture a US$650&ndash 750 million revenue opportunity in FY2026, potentially expanding its order book beyond US$1 billion.
The Investor Case
Mermaid combines resilient cash-generating operations (ROE 8%) with a balanced capital structure (debt-to-equity 62%). Its share price volatility (beta 1.15) offers asymmetric upside for investors who buy amid war jitters and hold into the reconstruction wave. The recent share price pullback reflects sentiment&mdash not fundamentals&mdash creating an attractive &ldquo buy the dip&rdquo window.
Bottom line: Mermaid Maritime is a rare play on both defensive cash flow and post-war growth&mdash anchored by multi-year contracts and deepwater expertise that have outlasted every energy cycle since 1983. DYODD


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17-Mar-2026 20:41 Mermaid Maritime   /   Mermaid Maritime       Go to Message
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Mermaid Maritime (SGX: DU4) &ndash Riding the Next Subsea Supercycle
Founded in 1983 by Danish mariners and listed on the SGX since 2007, Mermaid Maritime is a global subsea services leader, headquartered in Thailand. With over 40 years of operational excellence, the company serves blue-chip oil and gas clients across the Middle East, Asia Pacific, the North Sea, and Africa. Its operations span inspection, repair & maintenance (IRM), cable laying, transport and installation (T& I), and decommissioning&mdash supported by a fleet of 11+ dynamic-positioning vessels, advanced ROVs, and 500+ highly skilled divers.
Long-Term Earnings Visibility
Mermaid&rsquo s US$726 million order book (as of Dec 2025) provides exceptional visibility well into 2036. With contracts ranging from annual IRM assignments to multi-year offshore construction projects, this backlog forms a solid revenue base. Historically, Mermaid achieves 70&ndash 80% conversion, translating to predictable, recurring income that gives investors rare confidence in future returns.
Near-Term Growth Drivers
Even in a year of global delays, FY2025 revenue held steady at US$489 million, with IRM growth of 12.3% year-on-year. Analysts forecast 6&ndash 15% revenue growth in FY2026, reaching US$520&ndash 560 million organically.
At the same time, the US&ndash Israel&ndash Iran conflict has reshaped Gulf operations&mdash pushing war-risk premiums up tenfold. Thanks to BIMCO-style clauses, Mermaid is protected: clients reimburse extra insurance and vessel costs, effectively boosting margins by 20&ndash 50% even during disruptions.
Post-War Upside: A Reconstruction Surge
When hostilities ease, the rebuild cycle begins&mdash with damaged rigs, cables, and pipelines requiring urgent subsea intervention. Given Mermaid&rsquo s 79% exposure to the Middle East and a proven Gulf track record, the company stands poised to capture a US$650&ndash 750 million revenue opportunity in FY2026, potentially expanding its order book beyond US$1 billion.
The Investor Case
Mermaid combines resilient cash-generating operations (ROE 8%) with a balanced capital structure (debt-to-equity 62%). Its share price volatility (beta 1.15) offers asymmetric upside for investors who buy amid war jitters and hold into the reconstruction wave. The recent share price pullback reflects sentiment&mdash not fundamentals&mdash creating an attractive &ldquo buy the dip&rdquo window.
Bottom line: Mermaid Maritime is a rare play on both defensive cash flow and post-war growth&mdash anchored by multi-year contracts and deepwater expertise that have outlasted every energy cycle since 1983. DYODD

Coyote66      ( Date: 17-Mar-2026 16:13) Posted:

Finally sold off $100+k of this shitty mermaid.

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