ShareJunction - Member Posts

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I think got SBB at $0.56 - $0.565. 30% confidence level. Just guess for fun.

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For Olam I will do nothing to my holding. In time to come ofi may get listed and I will get ofi shares via distribution in specie from Olam shares. If the valuation is good, can sell or keep. Olam could sell ofi too then Olam really empty liao, and have to return all cash to shareholders and delist.

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Price momentum quite lousy even with the news. OLAM could be looking to sell off all their assets, become a cash company and delist. Practicaly only left with Ofi after Olam Agri. If this pan out, market do not see the sales price exceeding its NAV and relunctant to push the share price.

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If I nitpick, I would say the forex gains and govt grants as well as NPL wrote back are blemishes of the results. Simply because these outputs are not the result of the normal course of businesses. Market would happily discount them and refuse to push up the share price. In addition, US is turning inward and making things hard for other countries to do business. It is no longer a matter of demand and supply as tariffs skew the economic landscape. With YZJF venturing into Maritime and related businesses with success so far, this would normally warrant a re-rating but in view of US policies of crippling its rival by making business activities hard for the rest of the world, the market is cautious. We are back to last few years where investors adopting wait and see attitude rather than re-rate the share price based on forward looking scenarios. The difference is that previously, the share price was hovering around $0.3 to $0.35 but at least, now the base of $0.56 to $0.575 should be easily defence if there are any attempts to sell down, reasons being YZJF has proved that they walk the talk. Scaling down DI, shifting capital out of China, venturing into new [Maritime related] businesses and more importantly, the company is deft free with huge cash in hands. Cash is king if somehow, the world sink into a recession as that will be the time everything is on sale on bargain and it will be a buyer market. In a nutshell, ignore short term price volatility as after all, for long term investors, what' s key is every year there is good dividend to collect while waiting for the market to finally re-rate the company.

HVRRVH ( Date: 25-Feb-2025 00:10) Posted:

On hindsight now I thank T Rowe and other institutions that sold down YZJF, I am not mocking them and seriously I am thanking them. If they didn' t sell, they may start selling NOW with larger capital gains or they may sell after XD. With their big holding, if they sell now it would supress upward price movement. This is not to say the price will sure trend up from tomorrow, we really don' t know what game BBs are up to. Good results good prospects good growth etc all amounting to nothing if they have weird plan or interpretation of the results. They can hold the view that the ' other' gain is too large and would not be repeated [Forex gain & govt grant = 72m] they can say prospect no good as the write back of credit allowance [15m] has also skew the results and may not be repeated they can say YZJF don' t know how to deploy the huge cash, instead of deploying it, now it has gone up to 1.8b instead and cash in hands/equivalent is now 52 cents per share! For me, I like the Maritime and related businesses, it has started showing the growth and managment has indicated that they will reallocate some fund from Cash Managment to Maritime. Maritime is now the YZJF' s main growth engine. So let' s see how the market react tomorrow. I would venture to say that it should go up, and may not go up as much as the corresponding dividends 3.45 cents but it will be unthinkable if it get sell down. If it happens, let' s all quit SGX market and venture overseas markets instead.

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90 cents base established, Not sure management started SBB already or not today but regardless, 50% dividend payout ratio is attractive especially if holding cost is lower than current price. Besides, still got small chance for growth. Should accumulate on price weakness.

HVRRVH ( Date: 24-Feb-2025 10:31) Posted:

So far it?s been right and with management?s commitment to buy back shares, the stock is now trying to establish a base price, let?s hope it is at least 90 cents since founder has bought around and higher than this price recently

HVRRVH ( Date: 13-Jan-2025 18:24) Posted:

Initiated a position today @ $0.83, post here for self reference. Next level to buy for me is below 80 cents, if it come to that.

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On hindsight now I thank T Rowe and other institutions that sold down YZJF, I am not mocking them and seriously I am thanking them. If they didn' t sell, they may start selling NOW with larger capital gains or they may sell after XD. With their big holding, if they sell now it would supress upward price movement. This is not to say the price will sure trend up from tomorrow, we really don' t know what game BBs are up to. Good results good prospects good growth etc all amounting to nothing if they have weird plan or interpretation of the results. They can hold the view that the ' other' gain is too large and would not be repeated [Forex gain & govt grant = 72m] they can say prospect no good as the write back of credit allowance [15m] has also skew the results and may not be repeated they can say YZJF don' t know how to deploy the huge cash, instead of deploying it, now it has gone up to 1.8b instead and cash in hands/equivalent is now 52 cents per share! For me, I like the Maritime and related businesses, it has started showing the growth and managment has indicated that they will reallocate some fund from Cash Managment to Maritime. Maritime is now the YZJF' s main growth engine. So let' s see how the market react tomorrow. I would venture to say that it should go up, and may not go up as much as the corresponding dividends 3.45 cents but it will be unthinkable if it get sell down. If it happens, let' s all quit SGX market and venture overseas markets instead.

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Indeed market factored a yield of 6% based on today' s share price. Cannot complaint as the dividend quantum is 3.45 cents! I do not think even the most optimistic one is expecting that. Now I hope the yield get compress to 5%, that will move the share price up to 70 cents.

stonkmaster ( Date: 24-Feb-2025 19:07) Posted:

3.45 cents. No wonder share price shoot up so high. Seems like BB know beforehand the results.

eddyeddy ( Date: 24-Feb-2025 10:14) Posted:

Dividend more than 2.5 cents is not easy because earning from di has decreased and Maritime biz has yet to pick up strongly

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My post is just to show the working between EPS, dividend yield and the market expectations. Hence the range of the dividend depending on the 3 factors. YZJF sure can pay more than 2.5 as they can increase payout ratio but I would rather they commit more to SBB and or deploy the money for investment.

eddyeddy ( Date: 24-Feb-2025 10:14) Posted:

Dividend more than 2.5 cents is not easy because earning from di has decreased and Maritime biz has yet to pick up strongly .

HVRRVH ( Date: 20-Feb-2025 12:12) Posted:

Maiden dividend yield paid in CY2023 is $0.018 = 5% yield based on share price of $0.365 at time of results release.
CY2024 dividend is $0.022 = 6.4% yield based on share price of $0.345 at time of results release.

It is unlikely that the market will settle for anything less than 5% and assuming today' s price stay the same till result release, a 5% dividend yield would translated to a dividend of $0.02825. Based on the payout ratio of minimum 40%, to payout $0.02825, the EPS has to be at least 7.0625 cents. Given that 1H' s EPS is 3.04 cents, YZJF has to hit EPS of at least 4.0225 in 2H24. Is this a tall order? On paper it is acheivable but YZJF has demonstrated erratic 2H earnings for the past 2 years, perhaps it was due to transitional effect and long holders can hope for a more stable 2H performance this year. The current price momentum is very strong and if $0.565 is breached, it is likely to trend higher to at least $0.575. If that is indeed the case, YZHF 2H24' s EPS and the resulting dividend has to be even higher than 4.0225 cents and 2.825 cents respectively because it is unlikely the market is willing to compress the dividend yield to below 5%.

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So far it?s been right and with management?s commitment to buy back shares, the stock is now trying to establish a base price, let?s hope it is at least 90 cents since founder has bought around and higher than this price recently

HVRRVH ( Date: 13-Jan-2025 18:24) Posted:

Initiated a position today @ $0.83, post here for self reference. Next level to buy for me is below 80 cents, if it come to that.

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More or less covered, as mentioned in the SPA that 110m from Olam Agri will be committed to pay the dividend, this amount plus profits from the remaining OLAM group should match last year' s 4 cents dividend for 2H24.

yuhanooi ( Date: 24-Feb-2025 07:29) Posted:

And still get dividends? Got 4 cts?

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Results show signs of improvement. Dividend sustained and intended 100m SBB should arrest any irrational negative market movements. Looking to add for long term on price weakness.

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https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/24Feb2025_News%20Release_Proposed%20Sale%20of%20Shares%20in%20Olam%20Agri%20Holdings.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=833947

It' s happening now. Sale price is 23% higher than current OLAM' s entire market cap! Let' s see how the market react.

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Yes positive market sentiments can drive price up without regard for any fundamentals. Let' s hope this is the case and in the long run, any price/capital appreciation is also grounded by solid earnings growth, increase dividends etc.

GoldenPig ( Date: 23-Feb-2025 12:35) Posted:

I think YZJF is riding on the wave of positive sentiment over China. Those buying up the stocks are not necessarily looking at dividend yield but further capital gains.
Expected revival of Chinese economy is the catalyst to re-rate YZJF higher. While we can expect the usual pullbacks & consolidations, we should see YZJF on an uptrend now that the market has discovered its potential. 😆

HVRRVH ( Date: 20-Feb-2025 12:12) Posted:

Maiden dividend yield paid in CY2023 is $0.018 = 5% yield based on share price of $0.365 at time of results release.
CY2024 dividend is $0.022 = 6.4% yield based on share price of $0.345 at time of results release.

It is unlikely that the market will settle for anything less than 5% and assuming today' s price stay the same till result release, a 5% dividend yield would translated to a dividend of $0.02825. Based on the payout ratio of minimum 40%, to payout $0.02825, the EPS has to be at least 7.0625 cents. Given that 1H' s EPS is 3.04 cents, YZJF has to hit EPS of at least 4.0225 in 2H24. Is this a tall order? On paper it is acheivable but YZJF has demonstrated erratic 2H earnings for the past 2 years, perhaps it was due to transitional effect and long holders can hope for a more stable 2H performance this year. The current price momentum is very strong and if $0.565 is breached, it is likely to trend higher to at least $0.575. If that is indeed the case, YZHF 2H24' s EPS and the resulting dividend has to be even higher than 4.0225 cents and 2.825 cents respectively because it is unlikely the market is willing to compress the dividend yield to below 5%.

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Maiden dividend yield paid in CY2023 is $0.018 = 5% yield based on share price of $0.365 at time of results release.
CY2024 dividend is $0.022 = 6.4% yield based on share price of $0.345 at time of results release.

It is unlikely that the market will settle for anything less than 5% and assuming today' s price stay the same till result release, a 5% dividend yield would translated to a dividend of $0.02825. Based on the payout ratio of minimum 40%, to payout $0.02825, the EPS has to be at least 7.0625 cents. Given that 1H' s EPS is 3.04 cents, YZJF has to hit EPS of at least 4.0225 in 2H24. Is this a tall order? On paper it is acheivable but YZJF has demonstrated erratic 2H earnings for the past 2 years, perhaps it was due to transitional effect and long holders can hope for a more stable 2H performance this year. The current price momentum is very strong and if $0.565 is breached, it is likely to trend higher to at least $0.575. If that is indeed the case, YZHF 2H24' s EPS and the resulting dividend has to be even higher than 4.0225 cents and 2.825 cents respectively because it is unlikely the market is willing to compress the dividend yield to below 5%.

HVRRVH ( Date: 13-Feb-2025 13:10) Posted:

No cause for celebration yet but long holders can feel a sense of vindication, just look at the other YZJF threads to see where am I coming from. I am sure many long holders especially those vested since day 1 and accumulated slowly with the prices going down would say to themsleves that luckily they have conviction in their investment thesis and have ignored all the naysayers, whom comments at times bodering on ridiculing long holders. Anyway price just trying to crack 53 cents and now I begin to wonder is the market preparing for yield compression or market sees that YZJF will declare higher profits and hence, higher dividend? It has to be either one and it is more liley a combination of both cos with the persistent high interest rate environment, a risk free US bond can now yield at least 4% easily acorss all duration, from 2 to 10 years. Therefore, a YZJF 5% dividend yield may not be attractive. A 5% is about 2.65 cents based on 53 cens share price. If market deem 5.5% to 6% is the going rate, then the dividend will be at least 3 cents based on 53 cents share price. In any case, just stay tuned to find out soon.

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趁低价加盘不做空
收股息再增股
一年票价升 47%
盼来年再升 47%

pkli899 ( Date: 20-Feb-2025 11:14) Posted:

终于见到曙光

就如书生考状元

挑灯夜读寒窗下
载誉荣归极地时

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https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/singapore/budget-2025-new-s1-billion-private-credit-fund-high-growth-local-companies

Maybe in partnership with GLCs, YZJF is finally looking at deploying its huge cash to good use. Facing artificial resistance now at $0.565 but we could see $0.575 get tested before results. Long holders can continue to be cautiously optimistic.

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Very possible you are correct. Thanks.

Eyk3000 ( Date: 18-Feb-2025 17:25) Posted:

I stand to be corrected, but I believe Yangzijiang Financial Holding refers to 扬子江金融控股 , not 扬子江基金 (Yangzijiang Fund). The YZJ Fund that has invested in black sesame tech is likely Qianhai Yangzijiang Fund Management Co. Ltd. as their website (https://yzjfund.com/) lists black sesame tech as one of their invested projects.

HVRRVH ( Date: 18-Feb-2025 14:52) Posted:

https://www.prnasia.com/story/371049-1.shtml

Article is in Chinese. 500m raised and YZJF is one of the entities that contributed to the fund.

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https://www.prnasia.com/story/371049-1.shtml

Article is in Chinese. 500m raised and YZJF is one of the entities that contributed to the fund.

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Can real expert or someone really know the working enlighten us, how is shorts making money in this instance, since the price has been trending up from low of $0.47 since 7.2.25 to now $0.53 without going below $0.47? Let' s be conservative and said shorts didn' t shorted at $0.47 but at higher prices, i.e., from $0.47 - $0.53 range, with their shorts still outstanding, are they looking to wait and cover back below $0.47? Even if they shorted at $0.53, and they so good that they covered at lowest possible after the fact, i.e., $0.51, there wasn' t so many shares like 12.5m transacted at $0.53 the 2 days combined (Thursday & Friday). So appreciate it that real expert or someone who really know how this work and shed some light to enlighten us. TIA.

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Got strange character here. Stock down talk down, stock up talk up.