ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Hph trust usd (6 March 2017)

support: 38-38.5

resistance level: 42-43 and 56-57

Suggestion: long buy

First target within 2 weeks: 42-43

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Bird talk begin.

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Euro is going to bottom up with end of Europe QE, 2% inflation and Good economic.

Don't miss the boat.

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If you are interested about cpo counters and think cpo price will grow( market is like that you only can hope for the best, if cpo down at least you know the healthy one with good balance sheet will give you less problems especially price at low level)

Indofood is undervalued.

earlybird14 ( Date: 04-Mar-2017 09:44) Posted:

So If a cpo rally is coming, refer below topic among Palm counters according to FA.

If you give points 1 by 1 to them, you will know indofood is top in the list of Palm counter listed in sgx which include golden Agri

Bumitama Agri, first resource and etc(may be some more?)? Their share price not falling as fierce as indofood which limit their up range.

earlybird14 ( Date: 04-Mar-2017 09:37) Posted:

Indofood vs golden

Low liquidity vs high liquidity. Unstable vs stable. Unstable, falling fast in bear, chionging fast in bull.

Indofood from below peak low ratio show you this effect.

Earning ratio 34% vs 16% gross margin. Pe,eps and etc,

Indofood brokers target price is given mainly based on earning power.

Peak low ratio: we don't take 3 since it is speculation price. We take 2012 after first correction, which is 1.5(be rational)

Indofood 1.5 and 0.41 and now 51.5. Ratio: 2.91.

Golden Agri 0.8, 0.3 and now 0.38 ratio: 2.1

Indofood this is in line with above liquidity talk.

Cash, cash flow from operating activity vs market cap ratio:
Indofood: 255mio, 219mio, 745mio ratio 0.34 and 0.29

Golden Agri: 218mio, 102mio ( last year 465mio, what's wrong) 4.8bi. Ratio: very obvious

why cash generation important? Noble negative cash flow burn their shareholders. Indofood positive operation cash flow with high ratio compared to market cap mean this company is growing. Cash can do dividend payment, company expansion, share buy back(Indofood did a lot when price coming down so liquidity reduce further). Avoid any possible right issue which dilute shareholders value.

So why indofood? Very obvious. Not saying golden no good but I worry their operating cash flow and their cash position vs their market cap.

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So If a cpo rally is coming, refer below topic among Palm counters according to FA.

If you give points 1 by 1 to them, you will know indofood is top in the list of Palm counter listed in sgx which include golden Agri

Bumitama Agri, first resource and etc(may be some more?)? Their share price not falling as fierce as indofood which limit their up range.

earlybird14 ( Date: 04-Mar-2017 09:37) Posted:

Indofood vs golden

Low liquidity vs high liquidity. Unstable vs stable. Unstable, falling fast in bear, chionging fast in bull.

Indofood from below peak low ratio show you this effect.

Earning ratio 34% vs 16% gross margin. Pe,eps and etc,

Indofood brokers target price is given mainly based on earning power.

Peak low ratio: we don't take 3 since it is speculation price. We take 2012 after first correction, which is 1.5(be rational)

Indofood 1.5 and 0.41 and now 51.5. Ratio: 2.91.

Golden Agri 0.8, 0.3 and now 0.38 ratio: 2.1

Indofood this is in line with above liquidity talk.

Cash, cash flow from operating activity vs market cap ratio:
Indofood: 255mio, 219mio, 745mio ratio 0.34 and 0.29

Golden Agri: 218mio, 102mio ( last year 465mio, what's wrong) 4.8bi. Ratio: very obvious

why cash generation important? Noble negative cash flow burn their shareholders. Indofood positive operation cash flow with high ratio compared to market cap mean this company is growing. Cash can do dividend payment, company expansion, share buy back(Indofood did a lot when price coming down so liquidity reduce further). Avoid any possible right issue which dilute shareholders value.

So why indofood? Very obvious. Not saying golden no good but I worry their operating cash flow and their cash position vs their market cap.

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Indofood vs golden

Low liquidity vs high liquidity. Unstable vs stable. Unstable, falling fast in bear, chionging fast in bull.

Indofood from below peak low ratio show you this effect.

Earning ratio 34% vs 16% gross margin. Pe,eps and etc,

Indofood brokers target price is given mainly based on earning power.

Peak low ratio: we don't take 3 since it is speculation price. We take 2012 after first correction, which is 1.5(be rational)

Indofood 1.5 and 0.41 and now 51.5. Ratio: 2.91.

Golden Agri 0.8, 0.3 and now 0.38 ratio: 2.1

Indofood this is in line with above liquidity talk.

Cash, cash flow from operating activity vs market cap ratio:
Indofood: 255mio, 219mio, 745mio ratio 0.34 and 0.29

Golden Agri: 218mio, 102mio ( last year 465mio, what's wrong) 4.8bi. Ratio: very obvious

why cash generation important? Noble negative cash flow burn their shareholders. Indofood positive operation cash flow with high ratio compared to market cap mean this company is growing. Cash can do dividend payment, company expansion, share buy back(Indofood did a lot when price coming down so liquidity reduce further). Avoid any possible right issue which dilute shareholders value.

So why indofood? Very obvious. Not saying golden no good but I worry their operating cash flow and their cash position vs their market cap.

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http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/derivatives/prices/#/?page=1&contract_code=FCPO

Further good news is March contract is 3000 rm.

So we are at right track.

earlybird14 ( Date: 04-Mar-2017 09:07) Posted:

https://m.investing.com/commodities/us-soybean-oil-advanced-chart

Bounce up from 4hr support level. Monday we will know if 35 broken, once broken, shall move higher.

Then buy more indofood and other Palm counters since no matter how weak cpo is, so long as soy oil price up, cpo won't fall below 2750 and next stocking of cpo will be the rally come.

Then there are no excuses for people to sell indofood and other Palm counters. With making good profit and risk of cpo price further down removed, price will just go up.

earlybird14 ( Date: 02-Mar-2017 13:15) Posted:

The strong buy signal shall be soy oil price breaking 35 dollars.

Indofood price is flat with flatten cpo price in Malaysia.

Market need soy oil to hit high to remove worrying of vegetables oil moving into bearish mode

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https://m.investing.com/commodities/us-soybean-oil-advanced-chart

Bounce up from 4hr support level. Monday we will know if 35 broken, once broken, shall move higher.

Then buy more indofood and other Palm counters since no matter how weak cpo is, so long as soy oil price up, cpo won't fall below 2750 and next stocking of cpo will be the rally come.

Then there are no excuses for people to sell indofood and other Palm counters. With making good profit and risk of cpo price further down removed, price will just go up.

earlybird14 ( Date: 02-Mar-2017 13:15) Posted:

The strong buy signal shall be soy oil price breaking 35 dollars.

Indofood price is flat with flatten cpo price in Malaysia.

Market need soy oil to hit high to remove worrying of vegetables oil moving into bearish mode.

earlybird14 ( Date: 02-Mar-2017 10:12) Posted:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/derivatives/prices/#/?page=1&contract_code=FCPO

March contract 2950.

https://m.investing.com/commodities/us-soybean-oil

Soy oil try to break high last night and a bit higher on yesterday strong bounce.

Indofood Chiong soon

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I think price will hit slightly higher than given target price from brokers before moving into consolidation. 1.2 based on month chart.

earlybird14 ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 19:46) Posted:

Order will first flow to China with cost consideration. Among China shipyard, yangzijiang prove that they are one of the best in building transportation vessels.

Long term chart show bullish. After breaking critical resistance at 95(month chart resistance). Thanks to the fantastic result which is main reason of breaking.

The impression given to market is yangzijiang will be the best profitable shipbuilders in the world with best cost controlling and management and quality delivery with satisfaction from repeating customer.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 19:41) Posted:

I just read an article this morning saying the global order to fleet ratio is at 11%... which the author says is consider low...

So an industrial turnaround may be expected soon

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Order will first flow to China with cost consideration. Among China shipyard, yangzijiang prove that they are one of the best in building transportation vessels.

Long term chart show bullish. After breaking critical resistance at 95(month chart resistance). Thanks to the fantastic result which is main reason of breaking.

The impression given to market is yangzijiang will be the best profitable shipbuilders in the world with best cost controlling and management and quality delivery with satisfaction from repeating customer.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 19:41) Posted:

I just read an article this morning saying the global order to fleet ratio is at 11%... which the author says is consider low...

So an industrial turnaround may be expected soon

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Capex low win at the start line of fierce competition. So still has to face the reality.

Observers ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 16:23) Posted:

The amazing thing is the South Korean company Pan Ocean rather place the orders with YZJ in China than the many idling South Korean shipyards in their own country. Can just imagine the huge gulf in competitiveness between them.

shadow ( Date: 01-Mar-2017 12:59) Posted:

http://splash247.com/pan-ocean-orders-five-wood-pulp-carriers/

someone posted recently Pan Ocean will order at YZJ..

So should see a nice pick up in orders again soon...

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If you notice, the consolidation happened at 92 with 3 times try for breaking and fail, instead 92 broken 1 dollar broken. Because of 1 dollars broken, a new rally recounted from 92 with a 2 key support at 92 and 1 dollars.

So with the bull cycle, we can forget 92 since next time to see 92 shall be a bear cycle coming down from top. So 1 dollars become the bull trend bench mark, if break mean bear mode.

So consolidation shall be at higher level if yjz want to move higher. In such a situation, what level do you expect for consolidation if you sell slightly above 1 dollars?

So just hope it up and up and congra those still holding. Let go just let go and look for others

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 11:40) Posted:

hope that the next consolidation will give you a good entry point.

Seanskx ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 10:22) Posted:

Nice! I sold all my holding (Should have wait for my final tp at $1.05 thou)

But anyway Im looking for another entry price to board this ship again.

Pray for it to drop. (sorry for being black heart)

Shortist, kindly short it down for me to re-enter

^^

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We know all these level are key support level.

Market is still eye on soy oil price by breaking the week chart resistance at 35 after a strong bounce from 33.

Once 35 is broken, market will blow on bull on vegetable oil. But of course if fail and come down, is bear mode.

However we are at bottom up, so of course I am standing at bull side at this moment.

earlybird14 ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 10:50) Posted:

I suggest the putting following benchmark

Cpo rm 2750-2850 soy oil 33.5-34.5

Golden Agri 37-38

Indofood 51-52

Lower than benchmatk lower the price

Higher move higher

earlybird14 ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 09:39) Posted:

37.5 is month support. Now is Less than 2.5 days😛 😛 😛

I will support more indofood and bumitama since their gross margin is better, so got some security.

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Price in fact move higher than yesterday high, forcing shortselling to buy back and make sellers regret.

So long as they can make it every day new high and the falling not lower than the yesterday low, price may continue to go 1.2 or even higher level.

Seanskx ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 10:22) Posted:

Nice! I sold all my holding (Should have wait for my final tp at $1.05 thou)

But anyway Im looking for another entry price to board this ship again.

Pray for it to drop. (sorry for being black heart)

Shortist, kindly short it down for me to re-enter

^^

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 02-Mar-2017 16:57) Posted:

I also sold a portion.... about it already.....

tomorrow see how... may sell more tomorrow.

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http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/derivatives/prices/

https://m.investing.com/commodities/us-soybean-oil-advanced-chart

Based on last free fall, Sgx price is 1 day behind to reponse the cpo and soy oil price.

So be patient

earlybird14 ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 10:50) Posted:

I suggest the putting following benchmark

Cpo rm 2750-2850 soy oil 33.5-34.5

Golden Agri 37-38

Indofood 51-52

Lower than benchmatk lower the price

Higher move higher

earlybird14 ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 09:39) Posted:

37.5 is month support. Now is Less than 2.5 days😛 😛 😛

I will support more indofood and bumitama since their gross margin is better, so got some security.

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I suggest the putting following benchmark

Cpo rm 2750-2850 soy oil 33.5-34.5

Golden Agri 37-38

Indofood 51-52

Lower than benchmatk lower the price

Higher move higher

earlybird14 ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 09:39) Posted:

37.5 is month support. Now is Less than 2.5 days😛 😛 😛

I will support more indofood and bumitama since their gross margin is better, so got some security.

goldenchasis ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 09:22) Posted:

Today is 3rd day support on 37.5 ... Monday chiong up? ... how, buy?

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Again, so long as we hold on 1-2 more days above 38.5-39. (Bbs shall accummulati enough at 38-38.5) then hph shall move up and up.

Again 6% is not a bad dividend among top 30 Sgx bluechips. We know this is a sustainable dividend since it is equal with earning. The cash generated per year will be more even they distribute 100% earning because we have cash from depreciation which is used for upgrading and paying debt.

So nothing is wrong to be rational since in the past 1-2 years whose dividend are not dropping.

We are at historical low price with 11 days support above 38-38.5.

earlybird14 ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 10:14) Posted:

Look at hph trust result in past 2 years. Eps is hk 20.

We have very tough year in 2014-2015, but hph trust earning no affect much. I won't take it too serious on their 4th Q since result is Q to Q and average in 1 year, this Q may have more expenses next Q may be less.

Next is cash flow, ok, cash is coming in.

So global gloomy. When it happen then we sell ok. Now us market bullish.

And due to poor result and dividend issued, price drop to low and hph skip all the chance to rally. Market will compensate her

HB8289 ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 09:54) Posted:

My personnal opinion this counter to slide to 36 Due to the gloomy economy outlook in the first half of 2017( Please read with your own discreation)

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Look at hph trust result in past 2 years. Eps is hk 20.

We have very tough year in 2014-2015, but hph trust earning no affect much. I won't take it too serious on their 4th Q since result is Q to Q and average in 1 year, this Q may have more expenses next Q may be less.

Next is cash flow, ok, cash is coming in.

So global gloomy. When it happen then we sell ok. Now us market bullish.

And due to poor result and dividend issued, price drop to low and hph skip all the chance to rally. Market will compensate her

HB8289 ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 09:54) Posted:

My personnal opinion this counter to slide to 36 Due to the gloomy economy outlook in the first half of 2017( Please read with your own discreation)

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38-38.5 not breaking for 2 days, today 8000lots taken in 1 go.

Now 38.5-39. 1-2 more days, so long as this level hold, we will swing into a mid term bull.

Join or not join up to individual.

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37.5 is month support. Now is Less than 2.5 days😛 😛 😛

I will support more indofood and bumitama since their gross margin is better, so got some security.

goldenchasis ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 09:22) Posted:

Today is 3rd day support on 37.5 ... Monday chiong up? ... how, buy?

goldenchasis ( Date: 03-Mar-2017 09:18) Posted:

http://www.quotenet.com/commodities/palm-oil-price

Palm Oil Price seems to hit Trend Line Support and turning up ... is it time to get ready to buy ?