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Would like to emphasis that since the idea of spinoff was revealed in the interview at TheEdge, the price momentum has been strong and perhaps also owing to good FY24' s performance and committed high dividend payout ratio. This reminded me of Centurion which also floated about spinoff to list as a REIT and its price has not weaken since then, from below $1 and now has hit well above $1. I think if the companies have seizable NAV and have clear values to unlock via spinoff, it should do well especially if post spinoff their business focuses are clearly distinguishiable from the businesses of the parent company. In this regard, Boustead didn' t do too well but hat off to FF Wong, he remerged Boustead Project back with Boustead and that' s not all, he then ' spinoff' assets that is largely under BP by exchanging it with shares of Unified Industrial, a big real estate player and now Boustead price also increased albeit slightly. To sum it up, for super long holders I think it is worth your time to read the just released FY24 AR, the newly created Cash Management department helmed by the obviously bright Mr Chiang and the key Martime Fund ought to do even better in time to come. Also, it is noteworthy that old Ren' s salary is only $60,000 SGD! He is highly aligned with shareholders and he would get his money via dividends!
HVRRVH ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 17:59) Posted:
| Completed my accumulation of this stock for the time being. Wouldn' t chase the price now and shall be contended with yearly dividends and sit tightly on paper gains. Price should hit $0.69 before CD/XD to establish dividend yield of 5% and going forward, all eyes is on old Ren and his team whether they can continue to deliver the results. Old Ren has to come back to steer the ship after 1 year plus, right away, YZJF found new direction and ventured into Maritime business. Another year elpased and old Ren has steady the ship and just to highlight, 2H24' s eps is $0.0562, if this trend is keep up, going forward, we could be seeing eps of at least $0.11 per year. This would translate to yearly dividend of at least $0.044 and a yield of 5% that would place the share price at $0.88. Having said so, more could be on the card especially old Ren mentioned to The Edge about spinning off. This, I suspect, could be the main factor driving the share price now or else, there is no reason for such positive sentiment since Chinese businesses are in the crosshair of US tariffs. We shall see. |
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Maybe but this may not be the cause, since the rentals should be in arrears for sometime already and has not been part of the sources for the DPU. This is good lah, free up space for new tenants with more viable businesses. Nowadays people seldom go cinemas.
eddyeddy ( Date: 27-Mar-2025 11:44) Posted:
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Glad that the sharing is useful to you. In fact, negative views are welcome to lest we become an echo chambers. Sadly, most negative views contributors do not elaborate the rationals of their negative views. At most, they just say it is S-chip and go on with bashing mode and coloured it by shouting ridiculous price targets such as 20 cents, 17 cents.
Caesar ( Date: 26-Mar-2025 10:24) Posted:
Agree that it is great to have people like volvo (and HVRRVH) around to share their indepth and personal analysis of YZJFH. I am sure all the LT investors here in SJ appreciate their kind gestures and feel reassured to hold on to YZJF for the long term. Thanks!
pkli899 ( Date: 26-Mar-2025 09:56) Posted:
I always look forward to reading volvo125 writing.
Really thankful we have him around.
Anyway, we long holders are finally rewarded.
But as what volvo125 said, do not be carried away.
There should be a correction coming.
We just have to wait it out. |
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More than double! I have the habit of taking note and re examine of my own thought processes and this is one of the YZJF' s notes I saved in my computer. One of the metrics to use in assessing any given company is their ability to earn profit and pay dividend. If they aren' t paying dividend, then what did they do with the cash, is there acquisition expansion or what. My confidence was boosted with the massaive SBB to support the price from $0.32 cents onward and the subsequent value add with the share cancellation. I put my hands up that I did not expect the price to move so fast post FY24' s results. I think it would stay around $0.70 max based on yield calculation [ca 5%] but perhaps the market now has appetite to compress it to 4%? Or perhaps the market has factored in future earning now that the earnings are more visible based on FY24' s performance. Anyway, just like volvo125, I think and had mentioned that perhaps market is anticipating a further spin off of YZJF, they must know somethng if not based on FY24' s results alone, the rise is too fast too high. Having said so, as a long holder I am not complaning but would not get carried away. Just sharing my thoughts.
HVRRVH ( Date: 01-Dec-2023 12:02) Posted:
| Can' t wait for old Ren to take over. I am sure he has plans on his sleeves. So much cash at hands only earning pittance from yield products and fixed income. So much cash remitted out of PRC but mostly earning US interest income instead of deployed for other investment, bar Maritime Fund. I see another YZJS in the making. The old Ren can see that YZJS is big enough to spin off the financial and investment services within it, hence the creation of YZJF. As long as the company is making profits and sharing it by way of dividends, there is no reason for long holders to be unduly concerned. Unless ones' time horizon is less than 5 years. In fact, in 3 years we should be able to see the profitiablity and dividend trends, if 3 cents a year is the norm, almost 50% of money invested today will be recovered via dividends in 5 years. If the share price somehow still stay the same in 5 years, the holding cost is 15 cents and ones who have invested today would have realised a gain of 50% with dividends included even if the share price is still 30-33 cents 5 years later. Investors who go long know that a company that keep paying minimum 3 cents dividend a year can' t have their share price maintained at 30 cents range forever. Personally I think it would at least double. Let' s see. |
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volvo125 ( Date: 26-Mar-2025 03:00) Posted:
0.86 is probably the near term immediate mega hard resistance wall waiting in line if YFH is " allowed" to cross the next psychological barrier at 0.80 ( which is just 6 bids away), between now to AGM and the last day cum dividend.
I believe the current price at ~0.66x or higher going foward will correct ( correction could likely be significant due to the previous 2 month+ of very persistent steep rise ) beyond ex dividend pending the 1H25 release by early~mid Aug, however, If RenYL were to throw out any more signals on spin off again (eg announcement ) any time from now to AGM or to last day cum dividend or before 1H25 update, YFH will crush the 0.86 wall in no time.
Back in early 2022 till the point of YSB/YFH spin off by 21 Apr 2022, I vaguely remember YSB price hit as high as ~1.78 and closed once highest at 1.76 against its NAV 1.96, which was 90% of its NAV then. YSB last day cum spin off closed at 1.54, which was ~79% of its NAV.
Taking vaguely and crudely, the first YSB/YFH spin off as reference, if YFH1/YFH2 spin off is again signaled, we might be looking forward to YFH hitting 1.05 ( 90% of its NAV) in the near term months ahead and probably retrace back to ~0.94 or higher at the point of spin off.
I believe the spin off narrative is quietly at play in the background. YFH price has moved too hastily and too soon towards the 4.5% dividend yield target 0.77, very much well before the AGM and last day cum dividend.
Why big boys are accummulating so loudly at such a hasty pace ? Becasue the price now is likely still very undervalued if the spin off narrative is indeed incubating. From 0.77 to 0.94 to 1.05, there is still a very steep final 36% upside to 1.05, with multiple profiting opportunities to distribute and reload again and again along the path till 1.05 and then back to the likely final retracement price probably at ~0.94.
If the US market does get into a period of persistent crashes in the weeks ahead, the seemingly ongoing spin off accumulation trajectory of YFH could be temporarily derailed but as long as the spin off narrative is still " believed" to be in force, we would still see YFH heading towards the ~0.94 to ~1.05 or even beyond in the near term.
If the spin off narrative is indeed still incubating and in force, fear mongering will defnitely set in repeatedly when prices enter into the 0.80 and 0.90+ so as to absorb all the liquidity by weeding off all the nervous weak hands and stale bulls because YFH prices repeatedly intrude into the no man' s land of ATHs ( all time highs ). Long holders ought to have a very strong heart and extreme patience to counter these fear mongering attacks.
If the spin off narrative is indeed still in force, I do not think RenYL will take too long to make it happen. Why ? With US now escalating the shipping and maritime aggressions towards China, RenYL will want to split YFH into, say YFH1 (DI, Pte Credit, P& PE, FundMgt) and YFH2 (MF, Maritime Assets and Svc) quickly to tackle the very real impending geo political changes affecting the maritime domain. While both YFH1 and YFH2 are listed SG coy, YFH1 will still have capital deployed in both China (DI, P& PE) and SG (Pte Credit, P& PE, FundMgt), but YFH2 capital funding the Maritime Funds and maritime business and svc are all based out of SG and purely SG capital. Being a pure SG listed coy, YFH1 partners with both Chinese and Angmoh alliances to provide maritime svc in different geograpical regions. For the US market, YFH1 as a pure SG listed coy is free to work with Angmoh alliances to acquire non Chinese built vessels to overcome the punishing port charges.
This is just my reading of YFH and my speculation based on the ongoing price volume actions. I could really be wrong or deluded but I will continue to stake my money at where my mouth is. I am sharing my thoughts to all the Long holders here as I myself am a deep value seeking Long holders looking for longer term outsized gains. I hope all the Long holders here in SJ could reap in as much gains as I already have in YFH.
One more thing, by the way, let' s not be too carried away with the TP $1.80~2.30 from this Next Insight article :- https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/948-2025/16075-spin-off-success-story-stock-surges-77-to-record-fund-manager-sees-more-value. The writer assumes a 15% ROE to give a EPS of 0.18 in the 1st TP and a 50% borrowing at NTA in the 2nd TP. YFH ROE in FY24 was just 7.2% and I really do not see YFH achieving an ROE even > 10% anytime soon. As at end FY24, YFH has $1.812B in Cash Mgt with $506m already in Maritime assets. Maritime Fund (MF) has a declared target of Usd600m and the new Maritime Svc (MS) has a target of Usd300m (circular dated 28 May 2024). Assuming MS is not part of MF so the total capital to be deployed will be Usd900m or Sgd1.2B. With all the maritime assets now valuing at $506m, YFH would still have $700m yet to deploy to MF and MS. I believe YFH is not short of cash, in fact, YFH has a lot of cash but has problems finding attractive projects to quickly deploy the cash. So why would YFH go on a borrowing spree of 50% of its NTA or ~$2.1B at an assumed 6% interest to increase its cash holding if the coy is already holding on so much idle cash now, and some more expecting a 60% retained profit ploughing back to the NTA pool YOY ? I do not know who is the NI writer but I certainly think his assessment on YFH fundamental is too shallow.
For those who are at the Short end, ignore this post if you think I' m talking nonsense.
volvo125 ( Date: 21-Mar-2025 11:45) Posted:
The road to 0.77 is now probably taking place !
With market now interpreting Jerome P latest dots plot that Fed rates are gunning towards at least 2 cuts to 4.0% by end 2025, yield expectations across the board will fall accordingly, such as ... new SG T bills will fall below 2.0%, new SG fixed deposits will go under $1.5%. The new lower yield expectation on YFH with its NPL risk premium lifted could now theoretically hit 0.86, assuming RenYL could at least maintain or better a DPS 0.0345 for FY25, a conviction that he had expressed during the recent Lim& Tan webinar. |
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Nice. Current market price again pull away from average holding cost creating bigger buffer. Looking forward to the upcoming dividend! XD should be in early May 2025.
HVRRVH ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 17:59) Posted:
| Completed my accumulation of this stock for the time being. Wouldn' t chase the price now and shall be contended with yearly dividends and sit tightly on paper gains. Price should hit $0.69 before CD/XD to establish dividend yield of 5% and going forward, all eyes is on old Ren and his team whether they can continue to deliver the results. Old Ren has to come back to steer the ship after 1 year plus, right away, YZJF found new direction and ventured into Maritime business. Another year elpased and old Ren has steady the ship and just to highlight, 2H24' s eps is $0.0562, if this trend is keep up, going forward, we could be seeing eps of at least $0.11 per year. This would translate to yearly dividend of at least $0.044 and a yield of 5% that would place the share price at $0.88. Having said so, more could be on the card especially old Ren mentioned to The Edge about spinning off. This, I suspect, could be the main factor driving the share price now or else, there is no reason for such positive sentiment since Chinese businesses are in the crosshair of US tariffs. We shall see. |
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Total short volume was 31367100 with average short price at $0.71. Total volume done from $0.70 to $0.71 was 29,177,800, so give and take a bit shortists shorted another 2169300 shares [31367100-29177800=2189300] at other prices to derive at average short price of $0.71.
In this instance for shortists to make money, they have to buy back 31367100 shares at $0.71 or lower, however, there was only about 9 million shares traded between $0.685 and $0.695 So tomorrow interesting or not? Will shortists short it till below $0.71 to cover back? Let' s assume they are so good that they have already covered 9 million shares with profit, they still have about 22 million shares to go. Tomorrow will all the buy queues miraculously disappear to facilitate the shortists to buy back? Let' s observe.
HVRRVH ( Date: 23-Mar-2025 13:21) Posted:
31367100 shorted that cost $22249354 which work out to be $0.709321359 per share. Good luck to shortiests with current price at $0.725 if they have not already covered. If they want to short it back to below $0.70, I guess they may need 100m volume.
SmallSmall ( Date: 23-Mar-2025 12:57) Posted:
A whopping 31 mil shares shorted on Friday haha....
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31367100 shorted that cost $22249354 which work out to be $0.709321359 per share. Good luck to shortiests with current price at $0.725 if they have not already covered. If they want to short it back to below $0.70, I guess they may need 100m volume.
SmallSmall ( Date: 23-Mar-2025 12:57) Posted:
A whopping 31 mil shares shorted on Friday haha....
SmallSmall ( Date: 21-Mar-2025 13:05) Posted:
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Should be. 3rd Friday of March, June, Sept and Dec.
pkli899 ( Date: 21-Mar-2025 17:32) Posted:
Yes, knew about it but today is not the day.
halleluyah ( Date: 21-Mar-2025 17:29) Posted:
| i forgotten wat it called...it happen every end of 3 mth wan... |
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Oh you jot my memory, it is triple witching day. no wonder and it is good that fund rebalancing and now YZJF is in the picture!
halleluyah ( Date: 21-Mar-2025 17:29) Posted:
i forgotten wat it called...it happen every end of 3 mth wan....
HVRRVH ( Date: 21-Mar-2025 17:27) Posted:
| Many counters seeing transactions of buy ups and married deals after match closed at Trade After Closed too, such as YZJF, YZJS, Singtel, MLT, Raffles Medical, ST Enginerring, etc. |
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Many counters seeing transactions of buy ups and married deals after match closed at Trade After Closed too, such as YZJF, YZJS, Singtel, MLT, Raffles Medical, ST Enginerring, etc.
pkli899 ( Date: 21-Mar-2025 17:13) Posted:
Many counters big volume matching.
What is going on? |
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Thanks @ Pki899 and @volvo125 for the article. It seems it is not YZJF style to make a lot of noise but quietly working at the background, I like. No wonder no 3Q24 update but shock and awe with full FY24 results! If TradeWinds didn' t report this, we wouldn' t know they have made so much inroad into the new maritime businesses already. 22 new builds under fresh contract, 800m invested, already profitted over 24m by selling 2 ships etc and not a single ' SGX announcement' . Nonetheless, BBs know, that' s why keep buying up since late Sep 2024. It would be icing on the cake if these ships are desinged to ply Europe and Asia ports only and thus, avoid Trump tariffs totally. First stage of YZJF reset can be said to have completed successfully with EGM on new maritime businesses, and back up by price going back to first day open price of $0.69. Even though it encountered selling pressures after touching $0.695 and even tested the low of $0.665 intraday, it closed matched up to $0.68 and this show buyers are still buying up. Not sure there will be 1Q25 update or not but as a proxy, I think we can watch the price movement closely and I am inclined to believe we would see continuous upside. I have no price target but I have dividend target of at least $0.0415 for FY25.
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New 52-week high. More to come, FF Wong never fail to deliver.
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Indeed the real estate segment got hive off but no reit listing, instead it was exchange for 24.1% stake in a HK company called UIH. The 24.1% stake is valued at US$78.6m.
HVRRVH ( Date: 21-Nov-2024 14:27) Posted:
| Only marginal correction after XD. Very strong fundementals with potential of listing its portfolio of real estates in reit in the future. Not so soon as reits facing headwind now. Reiterate add but only if drop below $1, at least that' s for me. |
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Completed my accumulation of this stock for the time being. Wouldn' t chase the price now and shall be contended with yearly dividends and sit tightly on paper gains. Price should hit $0.69 before CD/XD to establish dividend yield of 5% and going forward, all eyes is on old Ren and his team whether they can continue to deliver the results. Old Ren has to come back to steer the ship after 1 year plus, right away, YZJF found new direction and ventured into Maritime business. Another year elpased and old Ren has steady the ship and just to highlight, 2H24' s eps is $0.0562, if this trend is keep up, going forward, we could be seeing eps of at least $0.11 per year. This would translate to yearly dividend of at least $0.044 and a yield of 5% that would place the share price at $0.88. Having said so, more could be on the card especially old Ren mentioned to The Edge about spinning off. This, I suspect, could be the main factor driving the share price now or else, there is no reason for such positive sentiment since Chinese businesses are in the crosshair of US tariffs. We shall see.
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Initiated position at $0.69 a couple of days back and added today at $0.70. Good steady dividend, strong balance sheet with high net cash. Looking forward to add more when price trend down on overall market weakness.
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What are you talking about? I know you are not vested and like to going around with your posting, that' s fine. Keep it that way.
MrBear12 ( Date: 03-Mar-2025 22:33) Posted:
For the first time the Venerable HVRRVH has a more cautiously optimistic outlook (69c) than my 70 cents target.
How things have changed!
That is the nature of stocks expectations.
HVRRVH ( Date: 03-Mar-2025 22:11) Posted:
| Ostensibly the current price surge is due to news that YZJF may spin off its Maritime businesses. However, what if the market is simply compressing the dividend yield from 6% to somewhere in the 5%? Market is now holding a more positive view that YZJFs fundamentals have improved with the scaling down of DI and scaling up of Martime plus huge cash in hands waiting to be deployed. In addition, YZJF has been paying higher dividends each year for the past 3 years with clearer earing visbility and growth. The yield at the time of results was 6.1% and right now, it is about 5.5% based on $0.63, I think it is likely that it would get compress further to 5% and that would give us the share price of $0.69. Coincident or what? $0,69 is the 1st day opening price before YZJF tanked to low of $0.285. If indeed this pan out, YZJF has indeed found its footing after 3 years. This 3 years timeline is also my baseline to see improvement in YZJF and now it has reached the milestone with promising potentials waiting to be realised, and I am cautiously optimistic that it should trend up to test $0.69 in due course. Let' s see how it pans out. |
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Ostensibly the current price surge is due to news that YZJF may spin off its Maritime businesses. However, what if the market is simply compressing the dividend yield from 6% to somewhere in the 5%? Market is now holding a more positive view that YZJFs fundamentals have improved with the scaling down of DI and scaling up of Martime plus huge cash in hands waiting to be deployed. In addition, YZJF has been paying higher dividends each year for the past 3 years with clearer earing visbility and growth. The yield at the time of results was 6.1% and right now, it is about 5.5% based on $0.63, I think it is likely that it would get compress further to 5% and that would give us the share price of $0.69. Coincident or what? $0,69 is the 1st day opening price before YZJF tanked to low of $0.285. If indeed this pan out, YZJF has indeed found its footing after 3 years. This 3 years timeline is also my baseline to see improvement in YZJF and now it has reached the milestone with promising potentials waiting to be realised, and I am cautiously optimistic that it should trend up to test $0.69 in due course. Let' s see how it pans out.
HVRRVH ( Date: 20-Feb-2025 12:12) Posted:
Maiden dividend yield paid in CY2023 is $0.018 = 5% yield based on share price of $0.365 at time of results release.
CY2024 dividend is $0.022 = 6.4% yield based on share price of $0.345 at time of results release.
It is unlikely that the market will settle for anything less than 5% and assuming today' s price stay the same till result release, a 5% dividend yield would translated to a dividend of $0.02825. Based on the payout ratio of minimum 40%, to payout $0.02825, the EPS has to be at least 7.0625 cents. Given that 1H' s EPS is 3.04 cents, YZJF has to hit EPS of at least 4.0225 in 2H24. Is this a tall order? On paper it is acheivable but YZJF has demonstrated erratic 2H earnings for the past 2 years, perhaps it was due to transitional effect and long holders can hope for a more stable 2H performance this year. The current price momentum is very strong and if $0.565 is breached, it is likely to trend higher to at least $0.575. If that is indeed the case, YZHF 2H24' s EPS and the resulting dividend has to be even higher than 4.0225 cents and 2.825 cents respectively because it is unlikely the market is willing to compress the dividend yield to below 5%.
HVRRVH ( Date: 13-Feb-2025 13:10) Posted:
| No cause for celebration yet but long holders can feel a sense of vindication, just look at the other YZJF threads to see where am I coming from. I am sure many long holders especially those vested since day 1 and accumulated slowly with the prices going down would say to themsleves that luckily they have conviction in their investment thesis and have ignored all the naysayers, whom comments at times bodering on ridiculing long holders. Anyway price just trying to crack 53 cents and now I begin to wonder is the market preparing for yield compression or market sees that YZJF will declare higher profits and hence, higher dividend? It has to be either one and it is more liley a combination of both cos with the persistent high interest rate environment, a risk free US bond can now yield at least 4% easily acorss all duration, from 2 to 10 years. Therefore, a YZJF 5% dividend yield may not be attractive. A 5% is about 2.65 cents based on 53 cens share price. If market deem 5.5% to 6% is the going rate, then the dividend will be at least 3 cents based on 53 cents share price. In any case, just stay tuned to find out soon. |
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At this rate, I hope to see reporting of ' .... becoming substantial shareholders' . Just need 175m and reporting is required.
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Quietly climbing under radar. With management minded to unlock value for shareholders, current level should be easily supported. 50% payout ratio and SBB. Indeed, they do hold certain properties where they operating their clinics, hospitals so that is another avenue that may be monetised if management think it is feasible.
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