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24-Jan-2017 08:53

Alpha Integrated RE / REMOVE SABANA REIT MANAGER

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Shareholders of IHC had just succesfully kicked out most the directors. If they can do it, i believe the shareholders of Sabana can achieve that too. Beside kicking out the managers, maybe .... can kick out the directors too who is not looking after the interest of the shareholders.

The shareholders of IHC have the help from Oxley team and Quarz cap. Hope that they can come in to invest in this undervalue REIT. OUE limited just announced that the acquire 12.5% of IHC because it is undervalue. Hopefully, other giants like OUE, Mapletree, Ascendas can spot this ... and invest similar to what is happening at IHC.

What happened at IHC is surely encouraging ......

junction ( Date: 23-Jan-2017 22:11) Posted:

Good Idea. Support investor activism and the organiser of this Sabana oust the manager movement.

nngeeh ( Date: 23-Jan-2017 19:01) Posted:

As the current price is way below the NAV, Sabana should sell the properties (at valuation) instead of buying. If they are able to sell 40% of its properties at it' s value, they will be debt free.

I support your effort to make your voices heard ... and stop the purchase, and use the proceeds that are raised from rights to clear the debt instead of buying new properties at valuation.

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23-Jan-2017 21:03

OUE Healthcare / IHC

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It' s under the OUE limited announcement (not IHC)

happyharvest ( Date: 23-Jan-2017 20:53) Posted:

how come I cannot find in SGX?

Observers ( Date: 23-Jan-2017 20:31) Posted:

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Acquisition%20of%20Shares%20in%20International%20Healthway%20Corporation.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=436686

OUE acquires 12.54% of IHC at $0.077 per share.

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23-Jan-2017 19:26

NSL / NatSteel

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Slowly moving up ....

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23-Jan-2017 19:01

Alpha Integrated RE / REMOVE SABANA REIT MANAGER

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23-Jan-2017 14:13

Advanced / Cash 35c nav 70c...share px only 23c...foc ??

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Thanks bro for the analysis below.

I think the key question will be on the value of the asset. For Jaya, the purchase consideration is $150M in 2015, whereas for Advance, the value of the asset is from $180M. The area of consideration under Jaya deal is 263,000 hectares whereas for Advance is 232,102 hectares. For Jaya, it' s purely paid by issuing new shares, whereas for Advance ... it involves cash.

It seems that Jaya has much better deal. Maybe the land price or palm oil price has gone up ...

sunview ( Date: 23-Jan-2017 12:10) Posted:

Sorry some mistake in the calculation

I am just taking the figures provided by forumers to make a crude back-of -envelope calculation.

Existing no of shares = 101,268,367 shares

Advanced Holdings' cash in hand = $38m

NAV = $67m

Purchase price = $200m

Assume Advanced is going to pay 10% in cash ($20m) and the rest by issuing new shares at $0.50 per shares to the Agricole Global group, Agricole need to fork out $160m ($180m - 20m cash paid by Advanced) for 320m new shares.

This brings the total no of shares in the NEW company to 421,268,367 shares, or ~ 76% control of the NEW company. The total asset of the NEW company includes ($67m - 20m) = $47m NAV from the to-be-acquired Advanced + $200m palm oil plantation and timber business.

sunview ( Date: 23-Jan-2017 12:01) Posted:

I am just taking the figures provided by forumers to make a crude back-of -envelope calculation.

Existing no of shares = 101,268,367 shares

Advanced Holdings' cash in hand = $38m

NAV = $67m

Purchase price = $200m

Assume Advanced is going to pay 10% in cash ($20m) and the rest by issuing new shares at $0.50 per shares to the Agricole Global group, Agricole need to fork out $160m ($180m - 20m cash paid by Advanced) for 364m new shares.

This brings the total no of shares in the NEW company to 465,268,367 shares, or ~ 78% control of the NEW company. The total asset of the NEW company includes ($67m - 20m) = $47m NAV from the to-be-acquired Advanced + $200m palm oil plantation and timber business.

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23-Jan-2017 10:50

Advanced / Cash 35c nav 70c...share px only 23c...foc ??

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Bro Edwin, I was looking at the Jaya announcement back in 2015. The purchase consideration was as per what you said ... $150M. At that time, Jaya has cash worth $18M. Meaning, if the RTO is succesful, the new business will be listed by injecting $150M worh of business, but also has access to Jaya' s asset of $18M cash, right?

But for Advance, the purchase consideration is $180M, but in the RTO scenario, the new business will take over Advance' s asset which is estimated to be worth $67M ( NAV of 0.66 x total shares of 101268367).

The share issue consideration of Jaya is 0.52 whereas Advance is 0.5.

Am i right to say that it' s much expensive RTO deal for Advance if you compare with Jaya?

edwinjup ( Date: 23-Jan-2017 09:52) Posted:

Jaya willing to pay $150m by share issue at 52c b4 conso.....

edwinjup ( Date: 23-Jan-2017 09:37) Posted:

Think 2015 deal only $150m...now $180m.......think adv mgt better ask for profit gurantee....and why the family keep wanted to sell....?..50c is a bit misleading...i rem yuuzoo also 50c or $1 when.takeover....trade with extra car

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23-Jan-2017 09:54

Advanced / Cash 35c nav 70c...share px only 23c...foc ??

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Advance has ard $38M Cash.

The Purchase Consideration shall be satisfied in part by cash from the Company (& ldquo Cash Consideration& rdquo ) and in part by the issue and allotment of new ordinary shares. How much of the transcation will be in cash? The rest will be in share at $0.5.

Integrity ( Date: 23-Jan-2017 09:40) Posted:

--- Post Removed by User ---

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23-Jan-2017 09:39

Advanced / Cash 35c nav 70c...share px only 23c...foc ??

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I think we' ll need to wait for more details - how much cash will be used for this purchase? If it' s just issuing of shares at indicative issue price of $0.5 ... it' ll be more straight forward.

The Purchase Consideration shall be satisfied in part by cash from the Company (" Cash Consideration" ) and in part by the issue and allotment of new ordinary shares in the share capital of the Company (the " Consideration Shares" ) to the Vendors in proportion to the Vendors&rsquo respective shareholding interest in the Target Company at an indicative issue price of S$0.50 per share, in a proportion to be mutually agreed upon.

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23-Jan-2017 09:28

Saizen REIT / Saizen Reits

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By 31 Jan... there is a risk of breakdown of RTO ... and the manager might start liquidation process. The price will most likely drop to the NAV of 0.031 after 31 Jan if there is no further progress.

Nevertheless, Unitholders should note that, unless otherwise agreed in writing between the parties thereto, the Implementation Agreement will terminate if any of the conditions precedent set out therein is not satisfied or waived, where applicable, by 31 January 2017 and the Manager shall then decide on the next course of action (which may include commencing liquidation proceedings for Saizen REIT).

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13-Jan-2017 17:00

Asian Pay TV Tr / Asian Pay Tv Tr

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I notice that there is a trend with many newly listed REITs or Trusts in the last 5 years tends to raise rights issue - IReit, OUE Commerical REIT, OUE Hospitality Trust, Soilbuild REIT, Croesus Reit, Sabana Reits .... all raised rights to ask fund from shareholders. Hope this is not the case with this trust ..... and the license renewal is a concern ... and it' s not mentioned in their report. Does anyone has Macquire old report way back in 2007/ 2008 that mention about the cost of license renewal?

laksaman57 ( Date: 13-Jan-2017 16:41) Posted:

If there is potential of fund rising for license renewal, ppl will sell

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12-Jan-2017 20:40

Asian Pay TV Tr / Asian Pay Tv Tr

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Thanks Bro.

You are right.... there are 5 licenses which 2 will expire in 2017 and 3 will expire in 2018. How much is needed to renew these licenses is unclear....

laksaman57 ( Date: 12-Jan-2017 19:58) Posted:

2008 renewed licence for another 9 year, therefore 2017 should be due
No indication of how much was paid for licence but since aptt main non tangible asset is licence, i think its worth taking note

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12-Jan-2017 18:36

Asian Pay TV Tr / Asian Pay Tv Tr

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Bro, could you direct me to the information regarding the renewal of cable license? Wasn' t aware that they need to renew the Licence soon. How much is the renewal?

laksaman57 ( Date: 12-Jan-2017 11:10) Posted:

Wonder if coy going to issue rights to renew cable licence

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11-Jan-2017 10:57

Natural Cool / Rare Gem,Proposed Special 7.5 cents Dividend

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Weakening ....

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10-Jan-2017 11:37

HGH / AA

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In stock market, nothing is 100% ..... BBs are also human being ... whether to push up or down ... it' s dependant on their strategy and maybe ... even on their mood.

But since they have pushed up to much .... and i don' t think the volume for the past few days is high enought to distribute 10 for 1 rights ..... i am agreeable that there is a high possibility that this will get push up to 5c. They seems to encourage shorting this morning .... and might use short covering to help to push higher.

makdatok ( Date: 10-Jan-2017 11:07) Posted:

Im just observe bbs intention...not 100% foolproof...

nngeeh ( Date: 10-Jan-2017 11:02) Posted:

Wow ... i thought 0.04 won' t hold ... but it was well supported and all the selling was absorbed. 5c is a high possibility .

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10-Jan-2017 11:02

HGH / AA

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Wow ... i thought 0.04 won' t hold ... but it was well supported and all the selling was absorbed. 5c is a high possibility .

makdatok ( Date: 10-Jan-2017 10:52) Posted:

Prepare for 5c

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30-Dec-2016 18:06

C&G Env Protect / 14.3c div coming...share price.only 10.5c

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Grandblue will be part of C& G (International) which will be sold.

sharenewbie0301 ( Date: 30-Dec-2016 18:02) Posted:

Aren't they only selling away their business for the dividend? At least that's what I got from the announcement

Chewbecca ( Date: 30-Dec-2016 13:02) Posted:

Yes in sense they sell away the grandblue so they can pay the dividen

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29-Dec-2016 14:18

C&G Env Protect / 14.3c div coming...share price.only 10.5c

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They are selling 2 areas - C& G (Thailand) and C& G(International). They completed the sales of C& G(Thailand) which is one of the condition for their the sale of C& G (International). The dividend will be subjected to completion of both C& G (Thailand) and C& G(International).

There 2 different buyers for C& G( Thailand) and C& G(International).

RedAnt ( Date: 29-Dec-2016 14:08) Posted:

My first posting :D

It is HK 0.779 special dividend, which equal to S$0.15. I find it still a good buy at current price. Or did I miss out something?

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26-Dec-2016 14:53

Asian Pay TV Tr / Asian Pay Tv Tr

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Hi Bro, Thanks for the explanation below.

If you calculate purely using operating cash flow of $42M (or $28M after interest), you are ignoring the capex expenditure of $19M ... which consist of real outflow cash. AAPT mentioned that they will spend are $50-55M per year in 2016 & 2017. You can' t ignore capex expenditure.

If I use the $28M which will need to pay for $23M div and $19M capex..they r running short of $14M. There are also few million cost (like settlement fee, exchange loss, etc) here and there .... which explain why the cash reduce by $4M and loan increased by $13M.

I think we will really need to wait until the upgrade has been completed for them to have real positive free cash flow (operating cash flow - capex expenditure).

Another thing which I couldn' t really understand is tax. In Q3, the tax is $8M which is addressed in calculation of net profit... but this $8M cost is ignored in operation cash flow ... probably because it can be deferred and not immediate cash outflow. However ...this $8M will eventually need to be paid in future.

wirado ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 10:05) Posted:

I think this should help to clear things out.

APTV Business is providing pay-TV and broadband business in Taiwan. APTT&rsquo s seed asset, Taiwan Broadband Communications
Group (TBC). It owns the cable network that passes over 1.1 million homes in five franchise areas across Taiwan. Through this
network TBC delivers Basic cable TV, Premium digital cable TV and high-speed Broadband services to these homes.

Based on 3rd quarter, APTV has 761,000 Basic Cable TV, 178,000 Premium digital cable TV, 201,000 Broadband service. This business is different with other business where you don' t lose a majority of your customer in quickly or no demand. The business is much of monopoly. There is only one provider within the franchise area and you have to buy cable TV license which provides a high barrier to entry and this shown on Balance sheet as an intangible asset. (From Financial statement notes, the value of the cable TV licences and goodwill is allocated to the Group&rsquo s CGU which is principally engaged in the Basiccable TV, Premium digital cable TV and Broadband services in Taiwan.)

I asked the management on the subscription locked in period and renewal rate to ensure stable cash flow from customers:

Our basic cable TV subscribers are pre-paid, meaning they must pay in advance before receiving our service. We have been the sole provider of cable TV services in our areas for well over 10 years, and we carry all of the popular channels (including all of the top 20 rated channels in Taiwan) in our basic package for an all inclusive rate currently an average price of approximately NT$538 per month, so very affordable. Because of this, our customers tend to continue their subscription service with us rather than switch to an alternate provider of TV content

I asked about the termination rate:

Currently our basic cable TV churn rate is less than 1% (less than 1% of our customers choose to leave and use a different provider of TV), and it has been at this level for many years. This is a reflection of the high customer satisfaction levels across our subscriber base.

Pay-TV business is much of stable as it is a monopoly and customers can' t choose to use other providers. In the quarters to come, it should be stable cash-flow.

Now if we look at the Q3 revenue (You can reference back from Q3 announcement). total revenue only down 2.8% compare to last quarter. However, in NT$, it is only 1% down. There is a negative foreign exchange. The lower revenue is due to the lower advertisement and lower channel leasing. I don' t see much of set back if we get lower revenue from advertisement. This is just additional income from the main business.

Lower revenue of 2.8% doesn' t translate to a significant drop in dividend from 2 cents to 1.625 cents. To find out more, we shall dive through Cashflow statement on how the cash is moved. On Q3 Cashflow, APTV has 10mil profit but we have made an adjustment to non-cash portions. We got total of 42 mil from operating activities. Interest to be paid is 14Mil. We left with 28 mil. On last year, APTV used to distribute 100% of this. If you divided this 28 mil to issue shares, we get 2 cents dividend. I believe management do the right thing to reduce the dividend to 1.625 cents (total of 23Mil from issued shares). By doing this, they have free cash-flow of 5mil.

Now on borrowing portion. I believe Bank or Financial institution has done their research before even commit to lend such huge amount to APTV. The business model provides a stable cashflow to pay the interest. For this reason, APTV has funding certainty, better terms and pricing. From Q3, APTV has secured the facility and no major refinancing till 2019.

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25-Dec-2016 12:27

Asian Pay TV Tr / Asian Pay Tv Tr

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For REITs, they can sell their properties that form most of their NAV to reduce the loan.

For AAPT, their NAV is made up of intangible asset. They value the license as intangible asset which is valued at $2.3B. They can' t liquadate the license as they will need it to provide the service. For AAPT, just purely looking at price/ NAV or debt/ NAV doesn' t really mean anything as it is based on intangible asset that can' t be liquidated.

If they have completed the infrastructure upgrade, it is still profitable.... but if their profit goes down, or interest rate goes up, or they can' t reserve enough their huge loan.... it could end up like what earlybird mentioned below. Don' t assume the dpu will stay the same.... unless their profit increases.

earlybird14 ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 12:07) Posted:

The balance sheet is similar to shipping trust like rickmer maritime trust, pst and fst.

Earn 1 cents, give 1.6 cents. Those case raised from bond or notes and iPod were used to pay dividend rather than the debt. Cash decrease year by year till notes or bonds approaching and face problem to repay and force to issue new rights share to dilute the share, till 1 day cannot issue dividend and then file default.

The story has been repeating and keep telling us to stay away with unhealthy trust and don't be last one to run when greed with the dividend.

Chart is oversold, bounce is expected but long term, this trust is another doom story after rickmer maritime. Temasek hold it is the only positive news but she only hold few percent which is not reason for them to take over a problem trust.

Intangible assets are 2.3 bil vs real debt 1.23 bil. Intangible assets can be converted to cash is unknown but the debt is required to pay.

Price drop with reason with insider knowledge. So, be careful with these stock. Those bet on oversold can expect a bounce but it may sink further before a bounce but after the bounce, better cash out and stay away with this counter.

maccer ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 10:41) Posted:

Looks at the balance sheet and anyone has any comment?

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25-Dec-2016 11:54

Asian Pay TV Tr / Asian Pay Tv Tr

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In their 3Q presentation, they indicated that they will spend ard $50-55M/ per year for capex in 2016 & 2017 and it will be funded by loan.

If they stick with 100% profit distribution, and based of their Q3 profit of $10M, the qtr Dpu will drop to $0.007. Maybe the share price is adjusting to the possible drop in dpu by more than 50% in 2017?

In the upcoming Q4, they have committed to 1.6c dpu. The question is will they revise down the dpu that will align with the profit after Q4?

If I presume the dpu will drop to 0.007 ...the yearly div will be 0.028. Based on 8% yield like other Reit, we could be looking at the price being push down to 0.35. This is based on the assumption that their lnterest, profit stays the same as Q3. Any view from anyone?

They should start looking at reducing the huge loan of 1.2B to bring down the interest.

TMW1986 ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 10:19) Posted:

I think the digital conversion is already halfway thru. Maybe is just some Traders wanted to push down the price so as to scoop up cheaply later. And maybe the fundings coming from APT chairman since he intend to get control of TBC.

http://www.apb-news.com/nagra-ensures-secure-launch-of-tbcs-new-digital-platform/

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/10/21/2003657615

churnw ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 10:04) Posted:

Yes , it won't crash but now see heart pain ... Red till bruise ...

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