ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Sorry, so what is the Singapore Govt Bond interest? 4+%? Last I check, its was far from this figure. can you point me to your source?

alexchew ( Date: 13-Aug-2018 09:09) Posted:

From the old minset of passive investment into active investment.. That' s why bluechips have suffered.. Many retirees are seeing a huge dent in " principal" , and lower " FD interest" . Resulting in re-alignment of portfolio, moving into sg govt bonds instead as it is risk free. 4+% of dividend less 3% on 10 year basis by sg govt bond.. Effectively taking on 1% of additional interest and resulting in higher risk? Not sure how the risk reward ratio works out to even anyone actually.. Continue on a downward spiral, See new norms of $2.50 for Singtel next year.

investshare ( Date: 13-Aug-2018 08:26) Posted:

FD means you can cash out anytime the full principal

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This you are right. I would like to point you to the " ?" I put at the end of the sentence. Also, what are their growth on quarter without ANZ?

Tykoh8066 ( Date: 02-Aug-2018 22:40) Posted:

Refering to Pg 7 of the presentation.

Total loan grew 37B to 343B, of which ANZ contributed 9B by their loan portfolio coming under DBS&rsquo s financial accounting. Without ANZ, there would still be growth of 23B, or 7.5%.

Not -10 to 12% please.

Luzern ( Date: 02-Aug-2018 11:44) Posted:

Repost...this was what i posted just before market open today in another thread.

My Opinion on DBS result.
1) Q2 result came in seemingly positive, but its below (at least my) expectation.
2) Result confirms the slow down in momentum in revenue growth and profit (see presentation slide 26 of 35)
3) Overall loan growth of 12% up 37B on year, this includes the 9B contribution of ANZ. Meaning without the ANZ contribution, loan growth would be -10% - 12%? (see presentation slide 7 of 35). Does this mean that their growth organically is very bad, in fact negative? Is this a management issue? If so, I expect the newly aquired ANZ biz will suffer if its under the same management.
4) I cannot see any staement on possible forex losses especially to the the value of the loan made to China and HK in SGD terms. I would make sense that loan to consumers and retailers are made in the local currencies while corporate loans usually a mix of local currencies and USD, hence, I expect the value of their existing loan to China and HK to drop, in SGD terms. And seeing how China Companies do biz and their accounting practises, I expect provision for NPL to grow if the Trade war continues.
5) The CEO expectation of a drop in loan growth from 8% to 6 - 7%, in my opinion seems overly optimistic.
6) The results explains why Instituition have been net seller of the past 2 weeks.

IMO, DYODD

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Big data, internet trawling, analysis of banks' customers biz activities and you get a pretty educated guess on how the bank is performing...... there are companies out there doing similar things, at a price. Market Research? For example, how else do you think i know sgx would have go results? It was an educated guess based on the data they publish on sgx. If i can do that, imagine what well resourced funds can do with dbs. So dun put words in my mouth regarding the insider thingy.

Tykoh8066 ( Date: 02-Aug-2018 22:53) Posted:

And by inferring that the results explain why institutions have been net sellers, wouldnt this be insider information? Analysts expected better results!

Tykoh8066 ( Date: 02-Aug-2018 22:40) Posted:

Refering to Pg 7 of the presentation.

Total loan grew 37B to 343B, of which ANZ contributed 9B by their loan portfolio coming under DBS&rsquo s financial accounting. Without ANZ, there would still be growth of 23B, or 7.5%.

Not -10 to 12% please

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Its unlikely to fall like Venture, more like what Singtel did last time round........assuming US China trade spat still on. If I am going to invest for long term, I will take the que from the institutions or see their Q3 results to see what are the impact of the property cooling measures.

Fiat500 ( Date: 02-Aug-2018 14:19) Posted:

After XD it will definitely drop but it won't be something like Venture going on a free fall.. Just keep the stock to collect its dividends n if u have spare cash, buy some n keep as it gets lower. Eventually it will come up again..

Luzern ( Date: 02-Aug-2018 13:22) Posted:

It will be your call.

In my opinion, its unlikely that DBS can go back to to $30 anytime soon. In fact, it will be difficult for this counter to break $27.50 for the dividend run. If you intent to hold till the day before XD, do note that UOB result is tomorrow and OCBC is on Monday. These 2 reports might confirm and double confirm the banking sector is under pressure.

If i hold DBS long now, I will sell into any technical rebounce and cut lost cause after XD, its likely to get uglier (assuming US China trade spat still on). IMO, DYODD

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It will be your call.

In my opinion, its unlikely that DBS can go back to to $30 anytime soon. In fact, it will be difficult for this counter to break $27.50 for the dividend run. If you intent to hold till the day before XD, do note that UOB result is tomorrow and OCBC is on Monday. These 2 reports might confirm and double confirm the banking sector is under pressure.

If i hold DBS long now, I will sell into any technical rebounce and cut lost cause after XD, its likely to get uglier (assuming US China trade spat still on). IMO, DYODD.

FundamentalBuyer ( Date: 02-Aug-2018 13:07) Posted:

Thanks for the summary, I am unable to view these info as I am on my mobile phone at work.

Would DBS loan or revenue concentration in China be too significant for it to recover to $30? Eg 30% of revenue derived from China commercial banking, or maybe 20% of loans (risks) are from China commercial.

i have been stuck at $30 since early this year and now looking at their expectations and business profile as your described, I fear it may never come back. For the past few months i believe its prices have been generally up x% one day, down > x% the next day.
i am thinking of cutting net loss at $600 to end it once and for all with dbs. Should I do so?

Luzern ( Date: 02-Aug-2018 11:44) Posted:

Repost...this was what i posted just before market open today in another thread.

My Opinion on DBS result.
1) Q2 result came in seemingly positive, but its below (at least my) expectation.
2) Result confirms the slow down in momentum in revenue growth and profit (see presentation slide 26 of 35)
3) Overall loan growth of 12% up 37B on year, this includes the 9B contribution of ANZ. Meaning without the ANZ contribution, loan growth would be -10% - 12%? (see presentation slide 7 of 35). Does this mean that their growth organically is very bad, in fact negative? Is this a management issue? If so, I expect the newly aquired ANZ biz will suffer if its under the same management.
4) I cannot see any staement on possible forex losses especially to the the value of the loan made to China and HK in SGD terms. I would make sense that loan to consumers and retailers are made in the local currencies while corporate loans usually a mix of local currencies and USD, hence, I expect the value of their existing loan to China and HK to drop, in SGD terms. And seeing how China Companies do biz and their accounting practises, I expect provision for NPL to grow if the Trade war continues.
5) The CEO expectation of a drop in loan growth from 8% to 6 - 7%, in my opinion seems overly optimistic.
6) The results explains why Instituition have been net seller of the past 2 weeks.

IMO, DYODD

x 0

Repost...this was what i posted just before market open today in another thread.

My Opinion on DBS result.
1) Q2 result came in seemingly positive, but its below (at least my) expectation.
2) Result confirms the slow down in momentum in revenue growth and profit (see presentation slide 26 of 35)
3) Overall loan growth of 12% up 37B on year, this includes the 9B contribution of ANZ. Meaning without the ANZ contribution, loan growth would be -10% - 12%? (see presentation slide 7 of 35). Does this mean that their growth organically is very bad, in fact negative? Is this a management issue? If so, I expect the newly aquired ANZ biz will suffer if its under the same management.
4) I cannot see any staement on possible forex losses especially to the the value of the loan made to China and HK in SGD terms. I would make sense that loan to consumers and retailers are made in the local currencies while corporate loans usually a mix of local currencies and USD, hence, I expect the value of their existing loan to China and HK to drop, in SGD terms. And seeing how China Companies do biz and their accounting practises, I expect provision for NPL to grow if the Trade war continues.
5) The CEO expectation of a drop in loan growth from 8% to 6 - 7%, in my opinion seems overly optimistic.
6) The results explains why Instituition have been net seller of the past 2 weeks.

IMO, DYODD

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depending on the state of the us china trade war, the next few qtrs can be very bad for dbs due to its significant exposure to china and hk. how much would they need to put aside for bad loan provision and their new loan over there will be hit and to top it off, there might be forex loses due to the sharp drop in CNY against USD and SGD for the past 1 month. locally, their exposure to building and construction and residential mortages is more than 40% of total loan. New loan growth will be significantly impacted. the good thing for dbs is that it source of funds is cheaper than the other 2 local banks and the fact that interest rate is rising.

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The Management have 1 month to address the impact of the property cooling measures and even more time to address that of the effect of the trade war on their biz with regards to the over S$100B in China (including HK) and of course the effect of the depreciating CNY against USD (~5.3%) and SGD (~4.5%) since end June 2018. I will be very disappointed if they do not give clarity on these other than the standard reply, cause that will either show that they are clueless, avoiding the problems/questions or just being prudent and tight lips....IMO DYODD

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After result, before XD.

sharenoob1984 ( Date: 31-Jul-2018 15:17) Posted:

you meant after results are out or before xd hit 27.4x?

Luzern ( Date: 31-Jul-2018 13:54) Posted:

I will be pleasantly surprised if it can reach 28. I am expecting around 27.4x.

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I am surprised that Bharti Airtel Market Cap is only ~S$30Billion, this dispite it being number 1 in India (~270million customer base) and a customer base of ~87million in Africa (growing at double digit) last year.........

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Bharti Airtel share price rise by ~11% since announced its result on 26/Jul/2018.

Luzern ( Date: 31-Jul-2018 16:11) Posted:

Singtel own 39.5% of Bharti Airtel

Luzern ( Date: 31-Jul-2018 16:05) Posted:

Bharti Airtel share price going higher............Indian Telco market consolidation and promising Africn biz driving the increase. IMO, DYODD

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Singtel own 39.5% of Bharti Airtel

Luzern ( Date: 31-Jul-2018 16:05) Posted:

Bharti Airtel share price going higher............Indian Telco market consolidation and promising Africn biz driving the increase. IMO, DYODD.

Luzern ( Date: 30-Jul-2018 15:37) Posted:

Bharti Airtel' s share price is breaking up...... guess the majority have the same reasoning as me. IMO, DYODD.

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Bharti Airtel share price going higher............Indian Telco market consolidation and promising Africn biz driving the increase. IMO, DYODD.

Luzern ( Date: 30-Jul-2018 15:37) Posted:

Bharti Airtel' s share price is breaking up...... guess the majority have the same reasoning as me. IMO, DYODD.

x 0

I will be pleasantly surprised if it can reach 28. I am expecting around 27.4x.

x 0

T-Gunner ( Date: 31-Jul-2018 09:28) Posted:

Thanks for your opinion. Good analysis

Luzern ( Date: 31-Jul-2018 09:24) Posted:

IMO, DYODD

DBS coming result should be as good as last qtr as property cooling measures will only hit in next qtr onwards.

The Banks exposure to Building and construction and residential property morgates accounts for between 40% to over 50% of total loans (source: UOB Kay Hian). So the effect on their new loans will be significant. to add to that, the just realease China PMI for July misses expectation (source: CNBC). This is likely a result of the Trade war with US and probably going to get worst if there is no talks between the 2 Economic Powers. As stated in DBS 2017 report, its exposure to HK and Greater China is over S$100B and if I remember correctly, should be around S$120B - S130B (recalling from memory). Out of all this over S$100B loans, my concern is the around S$80B - S$90B loan to China. Are the loan in CNY or in USD? This is of important because CNY have dropped ~5.3% against USD since end June 2018 till now. And have fallen by ~4.5% against SGD.

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IMO, DYODD

DBS coming result should be as good as last qtr as property cooling measures will only hit in next qtr onwards.

The Banks exposure to Building and construction and residential property morgates accounts for between 40% to over 50% of total loans (source: UOB Kay Hian). So the effect on their new loans will be significant. to add to that, the just realease China PMI for July misses expectation (source: CNBC). This is likely a result of the Trade war with US and probably going to get worst if there is no talks between the 2 Economic Powers. As stated in DBS 2017 report, its exposure to HK and Greater China is over S$100B and if I remember correctly, should be around S$120B - S130B (recalling from memory). Out of all this over S$100B loans, my concern is the around S$80B - S$90B loan to China. Are the loan in CNY or in USD? This is of important because CNY have dropped ~5.3% against USD since end June 2018 till now. And have fallen by ~4.5% against SGD.

x 0

Bharti Airtel' s share price is breaking up...... guess the majority have the same reasoning as me. IMO, DYODD.

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After my 1 hr + searching, I have uncovered some interesting informations. Unfortunately, they are not from the official sites....... so I am taking this with a pinch of salt.

1) over the past 3 years, SIA make total hedging loses of over S$1billions [see I told you guys (if you guys are in this forum

) in 2015].

2) This is more relevant and interesting

"

21 May 2018, Asia Pacific &ndash Only time will tell whose fuel hedging strategy is better but consistency is key and this will differentiate Singapore Airlines&rsquo financial results from Cathay Pacific and most of its Asia Pacific airlines peers&rsquo earnings this year. We expect Singapore Airlines&rsquo share price performance to beat Cathay Pacific and the sector if oil prices stay at current levels or rise further. SIA&rsquo s fuel hedges are now US$24/bbl deep in the money while Cathay&rsquo s are still US$2/bbl out of money this year.

A TALE OF TWO AIRLINES&rsquo FUEL HEDGING STRATEGY &ndash BOTH SIA AND CATHAY HAVE HEDGED 45% OF THEIR CURRENT FINANCIAL YEAR&rsquo S FUEL CONSUMPTION BUT THE SIMILARITY STOPS HERE

Year-to-date, the spot jet fuel and Brent crude oil prices have risen 24% and 27% compared to their average levels in 2017.

Chart: Spot jet kerosene and Brent crude oil prices (2013 to 2018)

Both Singapore Airlines (SIA:SP) and Cathay Pacific (293:HK) have hedged nearly half of their fuel consumption for the current financial year (45.2% and 45% respectively to be exact), well ahead of the average Asia Pacific airline sector&rsquo s average hedging ratio of only 15% this year, but the similarity stops here.

See our previous report for more details on the impact of higher oil prices on the entire Asia Pacific airline sector:

Assessing Asia Pacific airline earnings sensitivity to oil price spike

At the current fuel price level, Singapore Airlines&rsquo fuel hedges are already deep in the money, a result of its more consistent and pragmatic long-term fuel hedging strategy. Cathay Pacific, on the other hand, will still incur a small fuel hedging loss this year albeit much lesser than its huge losses in the past 3 years as it has been plagued by expensive legacy fuel hedging contracts due to its more haphazard fuel hedging strategy historically. "

The question then is....... have SIA booked the fuel hedge gain in its latest report?

Luzern ( Date: 30-Jul-2018 10:18) Posted:

Cannot find any information on their fuel hedging loss (if any).

My issue with SIA is their seemingly bad judgement on the direction of fuel price. In 2015, their hedging loss was > $500 millions (for reference)

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Cannot find any information on their fuel hedging loss (if any).

My issue with SIA is their seemingly bad judgement on the direction of fuel price. In 2015, their hedging loss was > $500 millions (for reference)

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While making losses in India' s operation, Airtel managed to hold on to its market share. But what ready caught my attention is its African Biz, the growth was significant, and the potential growth in customers' reach is also there. Airtel have operation in 14 African Nation including one of the most populous country Nigeria with a population of 186million. I expect the profitable African biz to contribute > 30% of Bharti Airtel biz next year. IMO, DYODD

Luzern ( Date: 27-Jul-2018 11:41) Posted:

Yes, this is the news I was refering to. Look at the numbers and what the market was expecting, Bharti Airtel beats the market expectation. India market its suffering from Competitor' s price cutting, its African biz is improving (accounts for ~25% of revenue). The Indian market is also going thru a consolidation phase and becoming more and more of a 3 Companies Market. This should result in a return to profitability for all 3 dominant Telco in India.. From a Singetl point of view, we will also need to look at the performance of Telkomsel (Indonesia) and Optus (Australia)..... and not to forget TPG launching in Singapore. IMO DYODD

norispurs ( Date: 27-Jul-2018 11:08) Posted:

Bro Luzern, were you referring to this news in your earlier post?

Seems like this is a little ray of hope for ST' s upcoming earnings release next month, considering Bharti has been squeezed pretty tight in the previous quarter?

There still appears to be quite a strong buying interest for SingTel, even post-XD, and price has been holding up so far