ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Now is neither 911, Asian financial crisis nor 2008 US debt crisis.

It is oversupply and operating structure change. Weak company has to be wipe out.

If any crisis come, it will accelerate the wipe out. NOL is too high debt, operating condition is bad. Downtrend is confirmed. Worst is not coming yet.

sgng123 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 20:37) Posted:

I am a Lao Jiao investor of ship, watch so many up and down of ship share movement. Nothing can scare me now I watch ship go down to 0.50 in the Asian financial crisis and similar another one in 911 event. Ship would always crawl back to the $2 range then move higher for another boom cycle before crashing down again. According to mine observation, the down cycle almost over but ship would need to fall further before a rebound is seen and upward momentum maintain. Everyone know we going to recover this year as shown by the very strong US GDP growth in 2H13, plus now even those weak European countries like spain/Greece/Italy/portu are returning to growth. It is just difficult to know when the US economy would reach escape velocity and zoom off taking everyone up for another economy upside cycle, just be patient and wait for it. Worst is over for developed countries and even the tapering of Fed only minimum effect on sentiment as stock market all recovers from Jan low. Patience is gold and if u don even had it, don bother to step into the investing community.

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Your assumption is not going to work. Maersk Line, MSC and CMA are not going to be so kind for those littles to catch up and damage the balance. Their 18,000 TEU container progressively delivered, their 2nd round of cost saving coming in and can bring their cost even down and left no room to weak players.

sgng123 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 18:06) Posted:

Gona endure the heart wrenching moment for another 6 months then light would shine. Maesrk Line delivered a very good 2013 result in the environment of low freight rate due to it drive for efficiency and cost cutting. This already proven NOL is on the right track just give it some time to ditch out all the expensive charters and deployment of fuel efficient ships. The current freight rate environment only benefit those who had gone through the painful period of fleet renewal and look like only Maesrk line had done it rest still need to pick up. This year would be NOL turn to turn the corner as it follow Maersk Line path of using and owning bigger and more fuel efficient ships for the long range trade. Very hard year as bank/brokerage house traders would be trying very hard to accumulate cheap cheap ship price by pushing down share value and force out the remaining retail investors, go sleep and don monitor stock look like best option. today they got like 10M ship share cheap cheap at 0.95 lol.

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So optimistic as usual.

US has plenty of land and their population distrubuted across from east to west, not like China all located at east. Terminals in US doesn't worth much and it can be disposed and built somewhere else.

Volume is trading so high and down slowly. It is not a simple downtrend. Short covering may not start so early if the brokers who short it have insider news and confident that NOL will be down further.

As mentioned previously, the billion cash loss in past 3 years are coming from the borrowing of new vessels. NOL only dispose their headquarter and this is not sufficient to cover their loss and majority of these fund are flowing to the impairment loss and compensation for selling the old container vessels at cheap.

Just spend sometime to track back from 2010 to 2012, 1.5 billion dollars of senior notes with 4 to 5% interest were issued and the first come to expired will be in 2017. With the continual loss plus the vessels delivery and etc, NOL debt issue is going to be zone out by the brokers or shortist.

Once this is disclosed, Temasek cannot simply save NOL as what they support Olam. No matter how, Olam is still a profitable company. NOL is totally a different story. Temasek privatise NOL mean they are going to bear billion dollar of debt, are they so silly to do that? how they are going to explain to Singaporean for the acquisition.

At the end, NOL may be filed bankrupcy protection. Your share will only worth paper money in 2017. People have been talking this industry recovery since 2009, after a short recovery in 2010, this industry just sink again. Total of 6 years talking about recovery but nothing is happen and market is still overcapacity.

No much time left to NOL. It is a time bom.

sgng123 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 17:25) Posted:

Temasek might push button to privatise it as it would not want to risk damaging NOL reputation as a liner company among important customers in US due to SGX watchlist review in march. The Big question is how much is NOL worth, company with stable business partners and revenue worth up to US $8.8B currently. Non Core Asset like the port terminals they operated in US west coast and Asia plus the appreciation of value in the logistic arm. Real estate value got pushed up a lot during the 5 years of QE money pushing. It is like NatSteel corp u think it is a old fashion company that make metal part but in reality it owns lot of real estate asset which got appreciated a lot but did not put into book account. I remembered in the 90+ NatSteel is like 1 dollars + but when it sold off it non-core asset NatSteel electronic and other stuff the book value shot up 3-4X lol. Hidden Gem to be discovered and NOL is one of those since it is listed in STI for a very long 30+ years, lot of real estate asset it owned value appreciated a lot. IT is just like NOL building which got sold for like 400M booking in 200M profit lol. They only buy back that building in 1999 lol. But again they might just let NOL go into watchlist this year and next year return it to STI due to better cost management and better global demand. lot of peep in forum bashed down ship cos they lose money there and want us to lose money too lol. IF I am a shortist, I keep low profile and laugh mine way to the bank instead of venting in forum. Lastly to all brave investors who still holding, salute and hope the current selling wave would end soon and short covering start.

darthiliator ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 11:43) Posted:

I agree, the only catalyst is it's next quarterly report in May, so can you imagine from now to May no Catalyst to push it up. I cannot imagine where is it's bottom.

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Instead of buying, they may be selling it before go worse!

ascend88 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 15:43) Posted:

Directors and CEO ...should come out to buy up the own company shares now.....if they believe in what they are doing and believe in the future of the company...

This is another role of the Directors and CEO....

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95cents is overpriced.

A loss making company shall trade below 50 to 70% its NAV value. 50 to 70cents should be the NOL price.

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http://www.alphaliner.com/top100/ - junk of new vessels are going to deliver

APL is under NOL.

Maesrk - Profitable with billion dollars http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-3GG91Y/2983347166x0x706308/9ca47280-2dbe-4407-9211-91aabca80994/Interim_Report_Q3_2013.pdf

MSC - not a listed company, result no release

CMA-CGM - Profitable with few hundred million in 2012 & 2013 http://www.cma-cgm.com/static/Finance/PDFFinancialRelease/2013%20-%20Q3%20-%20Financials.pdf

2 of top 3 perform well.

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No reason for Maersk to buy over NOL which is very high debt with numerous outdated vessels. Their operation cover where NOL cover too. If they want vessels, they can order the most efficient and advance vessels from Korea shipyard.

China boom in the past cause over capacity now. Industry consolidation is required. NOL is one of the worst performer in the same industry, by right shall be the one to go off.

moneycow ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 11:49) Posted:

Since maersk does so well, can it offer to buy over NOL to have " economy of scale........."

RTO........ like MS bought NOKIA, a one time giant............. same scenario......

Maybe offer per share $1.30 .....a chance for holders to get their capital back.......

earlybird14 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 09:48) Posted:

NOL has no cash to privatise. They only can beg Temasek to privatise it. As per current market, no company is willing to buy over NOL which lose few hundred million annually, and lose more over 1billion dollar in 3 year short time. Without Temasek as the major shareholder backing behind, NOL has become penny stock and all banks are in panic to chase the borrowing back from them. Maersk has made billion dollar in 2013, they can navigate with deteriote operation environment in 2014. NOL who still made loss in 2013, she will just report another few hundrew million of loss. All 10,000 TEU one generation behind are going to delivered in 2014. Shipyard is going to chase for the billion dollar payment. Cash in bank will be empty. Don't be over-optimise in this company. Worst is not coming yet

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35 cents is coming

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NOL has no cash to privatise. They only can beg Temasek to privatise it. As per current market, no company is willing to buy over NOL which lose few hundred million annually, and lose more over 1billion dollar in 3 year short time. Without Temasek as the major shareholder backing behind, NOL has become penny stock and all banks are in panic to chase the borrowing back from them. Maersk has made billion dollar in 2013, they can navigate with deteriote operation environment in 2014. NOL who still made loss in 2013, she will just report another few hundrew million of loss. All 10,000 TEU one generation behind are going to delivered in 2014. Shipyard is going to chase for the billion dollar payment. Cash in bank will be empty. Don't be over-optimise in this company. Worst is not coming yet!

Lucky03 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 03:57) Posted:

Do not rule out the possibility of taking NOL private. After all, they did diverted F&N. the price may be around $1.12, assuming 10% above its NTA of $1.01 (US$0.80) and near its recent high. Of course, if it triggers off a bidding war like F&N, that will be more interesting :)

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Where is the cost save of 400million, It doesn't reflect in their result at all, only in the presentation that Ng presented and entertained the shareholders. Year to year result, operationg environment and competitors performance told the fact and nothing can be hidden. Don't just blindly believe what has been presented but looked into the result performance. It is fact, the 400million saving plan is a joke and nothing is saved and may be worse!! If they performed in 2013 as 2011, NOL should breakeven in 2013!

Lucky03 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 00:47) Posted:

Cost savings is not a joke. It is a question of survival esp when the growth is stagnant or even dropping. Time is needed for anyone new to shipping industry to pick up the trade and become damn good over a very short time. Ng being new has the advantage to force the cost cutting measures without any badgage and to remove and trim management layers and to discard old ships and ignore noises. 2 years is NOT a very long period to execute and see the yields with at least a year latency. Be real !

earlybird14 ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 21:21) Posted:

Cost saving is a joke. Just a simple compare before cost saving plan implemented, in 2011, NOL made loss of 400 million, Maesrk, MSC and CMA all reported similar loss at the same time.

Cost saving plan implemented since 2012 and 2013, NOL making loss of 400 million and 295 million. Maersk implemented similar cost saving plan and resulted break even and billion profit.

Ng cost saving plan is just a nonsense to cover his failure of management

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Cost saving is a joke. Just a simple compare before cost saving plan implemented, in 2011, NOL made loss of 400 million, Maesrk, MSC and CMA all reported similar loss at the same time.

Cost saving plan implemented since 2012 and 2013, NOL making loss of 400 million and 295 million. Maersk implemented similar cost saving plan and resulted break even and billion profit.

Ng cost saving plan is just a nonsense to cover his failure of management.

Lucky03 ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 19:45) Posted:

We all know the fact is that NOL will have lost that much more over the last 2 years if without realizing these savings. The savings are cumulative which means savings will increased as the measures are being carried out and expanded yoy. So, the savings in FY14 should be more compared to FY13.

pseudo ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 19:31) Posted:

1B saved in 2yrs? Where is it? Does not translate to bottom line improvement... so whats the point? I dont see it.

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Maersk started to deploy 10,000 to 13,000 TEU since 2007. MSC and CMA followed Maersk to deploy since 2008 and 2009.

When NOL started to receive their 10,000TEU since 2012 and 2013, Maersk started to received their tripple E 18,000 TEU.

NOL is left behind 1 cycle by top 3. NOL is operating structural failure. 1 dollar support is broken, china is slow down, no positive news at all, fear of right issue for vessel payment are urgent to solve.

1 way down.

sgng123 ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 18:04) Posted:

Check 2013 financial result, there is only like 7 charters returned this year so very little cost saving as new ships are not deployed. basically in 2013 only like 8% drop in operating cost YoY, the cost saving from new ships do not immediately result in cost saving, gona wait like 6-9 months to see effect plus u need to retired the existing charters before u can even deployed the new ships. New ships delivered do not meant immediately the cost would go down, u need to deployed them and wait like 3 months to see the result so usually it take like 6-9 months to deployed them as new ships are usually delivered a few months in advance and u need to do system testing/crew training etc. It not so simple, new ship delivered then immediately deployment got a lot of preparation work to do, don be naïve. 10 X10000 TEU new builds that was delivered in 2011/2012 need to wait like 1 year before they can be deployed in 2H12 until those charters are retired. So the new builds delivered in 2013 cost saving only realised most likely in 2Q14/3Q14. Before u can even start comparing NOL with other top shipping lines need to do more homework and check out the fact. Losing money is painful but pls don vent on forum.

earlybird14 ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 13:30) Posted:

As mentioned, NOL is operating structural failure and left behind few streets. When they are fullfilling the cost saving in this round, Maersk, MSC and CMA are moving to next round, NOL will never catch up.

Maersk Line 9M revenue, 19Billion USD, 9M net profit, 1.197Billion, Net profit Margin 6.3%

NOL Line 9M revenue, 8.8Billion USD, 9M net profit, -156Million (excluding one time gain from headquarter sales), Net profit Margin -1.78%

Just 4th Q alone, NOL made loss of -135Million. The new container vessels has started slowly to replace the chartered vessels since early 2013. This should show improvement in 4th Q but it doesn't but go worse. You still try to convience yourself the other 20 chartered retire contract are going to contribute positively in 2014.

NOL has sold the headquarter to raise the money to cover their loss. Here has shown that Temasek didn't want to support the right issue and requested NOL to raise cash from selling headquarter. Currently, NOL has nothing value asset left but only left vessels which are heavily debt and cannot be turned into cash.

The only thing they can do next is to issue right to raise money for the next round of loss. Just save more money to buy the right coming soon if you still think NOL is worth for investment

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Temasek can just privatise NOL, decomposite the subsidiary and sell it away to the interested party. It may be the only solution. NOL has been lose making for 3 year straight, Is it still complying with SGX listing rules?

sgng123 ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 17:27) Posted:

Temasek in 2010 just invested US$4B which is more than the share value of ship lol. The government more interested to know if ship would return to profit this year. Anyway lot of rumours flying in forum and market, hold fast and wait for dust to settle. Every day I see retail investors give up and lose thousand of dollars while bank/brokerage houses keep on accumulating putting a limit on the downward share movement. The one who can hold out to the end and believe in the growth strategy would either win big or lose all. Lot of small investors giving up today as seen from volume....

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I am pretty sure appoint the ex-general to be MD is a big mistake.

He painted a good picture of 400Million cost saving in 2013. 2011were in extremly worse operating condition, NOL made loss of 400 million and other competitors including maersk Line made loss too. His cost saving plan cut in in 2012 till 2013, still making loss of 400 million and 295million respectively when Maersk Line managed to breakeven and made billion of profit.

His cost saving plan in 2012 and 2013 are absolutely a joke.

darthiliator ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 13:52) Posted:

Ya I'm pretty sure even NOL themselves is shorting their own shares -_- They already know that their shares is dropping, yet they yesterday still emphasize that their shares is dropping. I think they are hedging to cover the loss until the market improves.

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The 200Million gain from headquarter sales is not sufficient to cover the continual loss since 2011. 2011- loss 473Million, 2012 -loss 413Million and 2013 loss 71million(including the head quarter sales) or 295million excluding the head quarter sales(After the cost saving plan for 1 year?).

Where is the cash coming from for these few years cash burning? answer is the borrowing for the new container vessels through notes and etc.

Will NOL still has sufficient cash to pay off the rest of the new container vessels after so many years of loss?

Right issue coming soon.

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As mentioned, NOL is operating structural failure and left behind few streets. When they are fullfilling the cost saving in this round, Maersk, MSC and CMA are moving to next round, NOL will never catch up.

Maersk Line 9M revenue, 19Billion USD, 9M net profit, 1.197Billion, Net profit Margin 6.3%

NOL Line 9M revenue, 8.8Billion USD, 9M net profit, -156Million (excluding one time gain from headquarter sales), Net profit Margin -1.78%

Just 4th Q alone, NOL made loss of -135Million. The new container vessels has started slowly to replace the chartered vessels since early 2013. This should show improvement in 4th Q but it doesn't but go worse. You still try to convience yourself the other 20 chartered retire contract are going to contribute positively in 2014.

NOL has sold the headquarter to raise the money to cover their loss. Here has shown that Temasek didn't want to support the right issue and requested NOL to raise cash from selling headquarter. Currently, NOL has nothing value asset left but only left vessels which are heavily debt and cannot be turned into cash.

The only thing they can do next is to issue right to raise money for the next round of loss. Just save more money to buy the right coming soon if you still think NOL is worth for investment.

sgng123 ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 12:49) Posted:

20 chartered would be retired this year = more cost saving this year. Make ur review after this then would be a better comparision with the top containers lines. Maersk, MSC and CMA all made profit cos they did fleet renewal earlier than NOL at least 1 year in advance, they make losses too in 2012 but they completed their cost saving plan in 2013 so returned to black. For now don touch ship and wait for news.

earlybird14 ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 09:10) Posted:

No compared, in fact, Maersk and NOL are not at same level at all but few streets behind.

Just to point Maesrk line is no 1 container shipping and taking the lead to hike freight rate in 2013 which make them earn billion of profit in 3Q time.

In this 3Q time, NOL made loss continually. Look at freight rate at start in 2014, it is below than 2013 at same period. After Maersk cut cost successfully and making billion of profit, they have no excuse to hike rate in 2014.

Who are left behind, will not survive same as those Asian container shipping company

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low freight rate will not stimulate consumption. In fact, the container shipping volume is still growing in this few years. However, the container fleet are still expanding faster and bigger size.

This is structureal change for this industry. With 1 billion of profit, Maersk can expand their fleet further. Those container shipping line like NOL will only be stagnant or go bankrupt and their market share will be taken away by Maersk or other cost efficient company like MSC.

banana ( Date: 26-Feb-2014 09:28) Posted:

Freight rates r low to stimulate consumption. That will generate growth in the economy

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No compared, in fact, Maersk and NOL are not at same level at all but few streets behind.

Just to point Maesrk line is no 1 container shipping and taking the lead to hike freight rate in 2013 which make them earn billion of profit in 3Q time.

In this 3Q time, NOL made loss continually. Look at freight rate at start in 2014, it is below than 2013 at same period. After Maersk cut cost successfully and making billion of profit, they have no excuse to hike rate in 2014.

Who are left behind, will not survive same as those Asian container shipping company.

Heero78 ( Date: 25-Feb-2014 20:59) Posted:

hahaha...can u tell me which other asian shipping company that make money at this moment??

dun compare so far with Maersk...

earlybird14 ( Date: 25-Feb-2014 18:02) Posted:

You are too over-optimised on NOL. Spend sometime in reading Maersk 3Q report.

When NOL selling their headquarter office and recorded 200Million of profit in 2013, in overall still making a loss, Maersk shipping line is making 1.197 USD Billion of profit in first 3Q in 2013.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-3GG91Y/2983347166x0x706308/9ca47280-2dbe-4407-9211-91aabca80994/Interim_Report_Q3_2013.pdf

When competitors are able to make billion of profit, NOL is making a few hundred million of loss(excluding 1 time gain in headquarter sales) in the same period. Obviously, NOL has problem in their operating structure.

The 400million of cost saving programme are nonsence. Competitor like Maersk also launched similar cost saving programme at the end they manage to turn the company to be so profitable.

If the container market turn better, NOL is able to breakeven, Maersk is going to make even higher profit and they are going to build more larger, more fuel efficient container vessels to fill the market demand. There will be zero chance for NOL turn profitable.

Wake up and think twice, what's wrong to NOL. The General is not the right man to manage the company, Temasek shall either sell away NOL or pay tons of money to employ the MD or chairman of Maersk container shipping to teach this dude how to manage a shipping company properl

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Maesrk contatiner shipping line has structural change the container shipping industry. They are the biggest continer lines company and the pioneer to make huge profit in this type of tough operating environment, who cannot follow their footstep is going to be kicked out from the market.

Nothing to cheer on NOL recent performance, she is dying...

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You are too over-optimised on NOL. Spend sometime in reading Maersk 3Q report.

When NOL selling their headquarter office and recorded 200Million of profit in 2013, in overall still making a loss, Maersk shipping line is making 1.197 USD Billion of profit in first 3Q in 2013.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-3GG91Y/2983347166x0x706308/9ca47280-2dbe-4407-9211-91aabca80994/Interim_Report_Q3_2013.pdf

When competitors are able to make billion of profit, NOL is making a few hundred million of loss(excluding 1 time gain in headquarter sales) in the same period. Obviously, NOL has problem in their operating structure.

The 400million of cost saving programme are nonsence. Competitor like Maersk also launched similar cost saving programme at the end they manage to turn the company to be so profitable.

If the container market turn better, NOL is able to breakeven, Maersk is going to make even higher profit and they are going to build more larger, more fuel efficient container vessels to fill the market demand. There will be zero chance for NOL turn profitable.

Wake up and think twice, what's wrong to NOL. The General is not the right man to manage the company, Temasek shall either sell away NOL or pay tons of money to employ the MD or chairman of Maersk container shipping to teach this dude how to manage a shipping company properly

sgng123 ( Date: 25-Feb-2014 16:26) Posted:

Container shipping is different, it is tied to trade independent as 80% of world export is transported thorough shipping. It is more of national interest than pure commercial one, recession rate which private carriers would be in the right business sense to accept except those state owned carriers who main interest is to ensure export get delivered to customers, making loss or not they not interested since can always pump in money to support the carriers. That what temasek do to NOL, they throw in investment and assign a Army general to restructure the group and kicking out the redundant management. Currently market is factoring in a poor showing on 1Q14 so just sit tight and wait for it to be over. Good thing is Fed tapering did not cause global economy to go into recession last year so the low rate carriers get last year unjustified and this year rate might be restored. It kind of suck cos poor market sentiment lead shippers believe recession at hand and forced a recession freight rate which is tied for the whole year regardless of demand/supply.

earlybird14 ( Date: 25-Feb-2014 14:09) Posted:

People is forgetting what happen on Chartered Semi Cond.

Temasek will sell it away like they sold Chartered Semi Cond to prevent further losses. A